AURELIUS · LIVE ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITIES
ARB · Adaptive Multi-Route (AMR) opportunities
Cross-venue arbitrage signals — Σ-sides gaps, wide-spread synthetics, funding-rate carry — ranked by theoretical edge. Snapshot age: HL 1.5s · PM 8.7s.
🎯 CROSS-VENUE SPREADS · the moat
Same event priced differently on 2+ venues. 1 opportunities with ≥5pp spread, sorted by edge. Polymarket + Hyperliquid + Kalshi in the live pool. Tighter clustering (similarity 0.50) dropped the keyword-collision false positives that earlier versions surfaced.
#15.5pp gross4.0pp net2-venue69s oldalexandria · ocasio · cortez · 2028
🧮 Portfolio Simulatorequal-split · paper · no fees or slippage
Default $10.00K capital split equally across top-10 arb opportunities with spread ≤ 50.0pp. Profit per pair = spread; cost per pair = 1 − spread. Calibrate before live trading: this excludes fees, slippage, withdrawal latency, and settlement risk. Live JSON: /api/arb/sim?capital=10000
Per-venue exposure
| Venue | Capital | Share | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | $9.42K | 94.2% | |
| polymarket | $584 | 5.8% |
Selected opportunities (ranked)
| # | Topic | Buy @ | Sell @ | Spread | Allocated | Pairs | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | alexandria · ocasio · cortez | polymarket @ 5.5% | kalshi @ 11.0% | 5.5pp | $10.00K | 10520.8 | $363 |
Funding -0.077256%/h → -676.76%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding 0.064917%/h → +568.67%/yr. Longs pay shorts. Carry by holding short delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.015843%/h → -138.79%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.013583%/h → -118.99%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.012874%/h → -112.78%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.012806%/h → -112.18%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.011034%/h → -96.66%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.009184%/h → -80.45%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.008420%/h → -73.76%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.007553%/h → -66.16%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.007184%/h → -62.93%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.006998%/h → -61.31%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.006993%/h → -61.26%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.006856%/h → -60.06%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.006108%/h → -53.50%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.005238%/h → -45.89%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.004626%/h → -40.52%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.004202%/h → -36.81%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.004194%/h → -36.74%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.003842%/h → -33.66%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.003603%/h → -31.56%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.003333%/h → -29.20%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.003033%/h → -26.57%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding 0.002876%/h → +25.19%/yr. Longs pay shorts. Carry by holding short delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.002662%/h → -23.32%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.002625%/h → -23.00%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.002593%/h → -22.72%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.002374%/h → -20.80%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.002091%/h → -18.32%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.
Funding -0.002047%/h → -17.93%/yr. Shorts pay longs. Carry by holding long delta-hedged against spot.
⚠ Risk: Mark-to-market vol, funding flip risk, liquidation. Hedge requires spot or another venue.