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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

2Z

2Z-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-2z · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.50%
realized vol (ann.)
40.41%
max drawdown
1.42%
sharpe
-33.57
ulcer index
0.66%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.53%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2062.62
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.36%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.93
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-997.21
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.93
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.50%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-83.43%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 36%
  • 24h change -1.50%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 23.5bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-2z/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.070
24h Δ · live
-1.50%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
2Z · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0706 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0695, 0.0723] · R²=0.599▼ FALLING -1.66%σ LOW 0.90%LAST 0.06950.07230.07160.07090.07020.0695μ = 0.0706max 0.0723min 0.0695dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.07
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.7%Short fee 50.3%SHORT FEE50.3%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.02% (99.98pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.7%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.3%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.009524% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=4,715,388 · μ=188615.5 · σ=364949.0 · CV=1.93BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=60449,321898,6421,347,9631,797,284μ = 1886161,797,28450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1797284 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.4s
$mark $
$0.0696
$mid $
$0.0696
◉prev-day close
$0.0706
Δ24h Δ %
-1.498%
$24h vol $
$331.94k
◐open interest $
$768.83k
%funding (1h)
-0.009524%
%funding (yr)
-83.43%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0706 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0695, 0.0723] · R²=0.599▼ FALLING -1.66%σ LOW 0.90%LAST 0.06950.07230.07160.07090.07020.0695μ = 0.0706max 0.0723min 0.0695dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0696 · 24h -1.50% · range $[0.0695, 0.0723]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0693, 0.0731] · σ=0.0006 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=44%BEARISH -0.86%CLOSE 0.0695 vs OPEN 0.0701 (-0.86%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.06950.07310.07220.07120.07020.0693μ close = 0.0706O0.070 H0.073 L0.070 C0.071 (+0.82%)O0.070 H0.073 L0.070 C0.071 (+0.82%)2.4%O0.071 H0.072 L0.071 C0.072 (+2.36%)O0.071 H0.072 L0.071 C0.072 (+2.36%)O0.072 H0.072 L0.071 C0.071 (-1.28%)O0.072 H0.072 L0.071 C0.071 (-1.28%)O0.071 H0.072 L0.071 C0.071 (-0.12%)O0.071 H0.072 L0.071 C0.071 (-0.12%)O0.071 H0.072 L0.071 C0.072 (+0.83%)O0.071 H0.072 L0.071 C0.072 (+0.83%)O0.072 H0.072 L0.071 C0.071 (-0.98%)O0.072 H0.072 L0.071 C0.071 (-0.98%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.071 C0.071 (-0.21%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.071 C0.071 (-0.21%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.55%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.55%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.071 (-0.01%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.071 (-0.01%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.19%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.19%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.071 (+0.44%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.071 (+0.44%)O0.071 H0.073 L0.071 C0.071 (+0.38%)O0.071 H0.073 L0.071 C0.071 (+0.38%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.071 C0.071 (+0.19%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.071 C0.071 (+0.19%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.71%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.71%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.15%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.15%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.16%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.16%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.15%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.15%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.69%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.69%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.069 C0.071 (+1.96%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.069 C0.071 (+1.96%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-1.24%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-1.24%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.16%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.16%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.30%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.30%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.10%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.10%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.81%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.81%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.069 C0.070 (-0.25%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.069 C0.070 (-0.25%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=4,715,388 · μ=188615.5 · σ=364949.0 · CV=1.93BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=60449,321898,6421,347,9631,797,284μ = 1886161,797,2841,797,284 · 100.0% peak1,797,284 · 100.0% peak199,691 · 11.1% peak199,691 · 11.1% peak124,865 · 6.9% peak124,865 · 6.9% peak85,645 · 4.8% peak85,645 · 4.8% peak59,111 · 3.3% peak59,111 · 3.3% peak92,046 · 5.1% peak92,046 · 5.1% peak30,882 · 1.7% peak30,882 · 1.7% peak87,090 · 4.8% peak87,090 · 4.8% peak29,792 · 1.7% peak29,792 · 1.7% peak70,580 · 3.9% peak70,580 · 3.9% peak47,113 · 2.6% peak47,113 · 2.6% peak457,262 · 25.4% peak457,262 · 25.4% peak41,427 · 2.3% peak41,427 · 2.3% peak312,416 · 17.4% peak312,416 · 17.4% peak46,954 · 2.6% peak46,954 · 2.6% peak40,299 · 2.2% peak40,299 · 2.2% peak24,965 · 1.4% peak24,965 · 1.4% peak43,785 · 2.4% peak43,785 · 2.4% peak621,110 · 34.6% peak621,110 · 34.6% peak107,983 · 6.0% peak107,983 · 6.0% peak196,745 · 10.9% peak196,745 · 10.9% peak53,032 · 3.0% peak53,032 · 3.0% peak39,178 · 2.2% peak39,178 · 2.2% peak94,129 · 5.2% peak94,129 · 5.2% peak12,004 · 0.7% peak12,004 · 0.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 4715388 · peak 1797284 · CV 1.93

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0007 · σ=0.0083 · skew=0.76 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.00 (mesokurtic)75420 2-144.80bpbin -144.80bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -144.80bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 1-112.42bpbin -112.42bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -112.42bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 3-80.05bpbin -80.05bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -80.05bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 1-47.67bpbin -47.67bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -47.67bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 7-15.29bpbin -15.29bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -15.29bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 617.08bpbin 17.08bp · n=6 · 85.7% peakbin 17.08bp · n=6 · 85.7% peak 149.46bpbin 49.46bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 49.46bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 181.84bpbin 81.84bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 81.84bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak114.21bp146.59bp 1178.97bpbin 178.97bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 178.97bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1211.34bpbin 211.34bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 211.34bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.88 · kurt=1.30 · near 16 / mid 8 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0696
Mid price
$0.0696
24h change
-1.50%
Mark–mid spread
2.16 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0706

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.61)
μ MEAN0.0706$95% CI: [0.0703$, 0.0708$]
σ STD DEV0.0006$σ² = 0.004×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.90%
med MEDIAN0.0705$Q₁ 0.0702$ · Q₃ 0.0710$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0028$ · IQR 0.0008$ (1.349σ→0.0009$)
min 0.0695$Q₁ 0.0702$med 0.0705$Q₃ 0.0710$max 0.0723$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.606right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.432mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.15
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.09
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.41
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-7.54
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.069954%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.081
σᵣ STD / h0.868283%σ²ᵣ = 0.754×10⁻⁴ · CV = 12.41×
σ ANNUALISED81.27%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.868%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-7.54negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-8.77downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.94right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.92leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.16
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-612.79%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.28%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.277%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.542%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.463%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.88%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.277%VaR₉₉−1.542%ES₉₅−1.463%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK7.23$
−3.88% drawdown over 23h
6.95$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.03% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
42.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.022 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0713
Bollinger MA
$0.0704
Bollinger lower
$0.0695

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.48 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.478negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.002lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.784strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.866significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.784
H = 0.784STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.478k=2+0.002k=3+0.124k=4-0.043k=5-0.1830+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.87)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.48 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.87)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$331.94k
Open interest (USD)
$768.83k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.43x
1h funding
-0.009524%
Funding (annualised)
-83.43%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-9.279× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-4.639× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.320×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.28% · worst -1.61% · typical |Δ| 0.59%MILD BEARISH -1.68%BEST+2.28%12hWORST-1.61%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.59%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.68%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.57%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.68%+2.28%-1.68%2.28% · 12h2.28% · 12h2.28%12h★ BEST-1.61% · 13h-1.61% · 13h-1.61%13h▼ WORST-0.06% · 14h-0.06% · 14h-0.06%14h0.88% · 15h0.88% · 15h0.88%15h-1.06% · 16h-1.06% · 16h-1.06%16h-0.16% · 17h-0.16% · 17h-0.16%17h-0.54% · 18h-0.54% · 18h-0.54%18h0.08% · 19h0.08% · 19h0.08%19h-0.23% · 20h-0.23% · 20h-0.23%20h0.51% · 21h0.51% · 21h0.51%21h0.29% · 22h0.29% · 22h0.29%22h0.06% · 23h0.06% · 23h0.06%23h-0.77% · 00h-0.77% · 00h-0.77%00h-0.15% · 01h-0.15% · 01h-0.15%01h-0.21% · 02h-0.21% · 02h-0.21%02h0.09% · 03h0.09% · 03h0.09%03h-0.76% · 04h-0.76% · 04h-0.76%04h1.82% · 05h1.82% · 05h1.82%05h-1.32% · 06h-1.32% · 06h-1.32%06h0.09% · 07h0.09% · 07h0.09%07h0.14% · 08h0.14% · 08h0.14%08h-0.10% · 09h-0.10% · 09h-0.10%09h-0.86% · 10h-0.86% · 10h-0.86%10h-0.09% · 11h-0.09% · 11h-0.09%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.57%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 2.28% · worst -1.61% · typical |Δ| 0.589%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.75%)FINAL-1.75%MAX DD-3.94%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.28%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9825 · peak 1.0228 · range [0.9825, 1.0228]1.02280.9825break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0228UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.94% · moderate0%-3.94%▼ TROUGH -3.94%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.94%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.94%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9825 (-1.75%) · max DD -3.94% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-16.70 · σ=22.19UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -56.30 (-1.78σ vs μ)70.3435.170.00-35.17-70.34μ = -16.702.902.90-46.18-46.18-20.74-20.74-24.64-24.64-40.47-40.47-1.81-1.817.317.31-2.23-2.23-10.24-10.24-9.74-9.74-29.60-29.60-70.34-70.340.410.41-7.58-7.58-4.13-4.131.071.07-1.73-1.73-3.18-3.18-56.30-56.30v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -56.303 · range [-70.34, 7.31] · μ -16.696 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=68.0044 · σ=30.3038 · range [34.4159, 130.2461] · R²=0.044▼ FALLING -57.47%σ EXTREME 44.56%LAST 55.3928130.2461106.288582.331058.373434.4159μ = 68.0044max 130.2461min 34.4159dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 55.39% · range [34.42%, 130.25%] · μ 68.00% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.296 · σ=0.297MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.191 (+0.35σ vs μ)0.7030.3520.000-0.352-0.703μ = -0.296-0.444-0.444-0.265-0.265-0.441-0.441-0.504-0.504-0.119-0.1190.0730.073-0.052-0.052-0.010-0.0100.1180.1180.2340.234-0.060-0.060-0.502-0.502-0.288-0.288-0.665-0.665-0.703-0.703-0.697-0.697-0.685-0.685-0.425-0.425-0.191-0.191v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.191 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
7.2059
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0272
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.8197
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1652
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2830
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1844
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7793
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0080
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.4657
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0137
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.250 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.58e-5 · top T=3.43h (29.2%) · top-3 cover 65.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.7e-42.0e-41.3e-46.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.08e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.08e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.94e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.94e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.67e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.67e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.84e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.84e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.17e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.17e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.47e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.47e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.65e-4 · 29.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.65e-4 · 29.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.10e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.10e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.77e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.77e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.17e-4 · 23.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.17e-4 · 23.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.08e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.08e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.48e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.48e-5 · 9.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 29.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.094e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-12.31×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -15.23400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -15.23
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -746% · APY -100% · Sharpe -9.58σ ann 78% · Sortino -8.99 · n 4999
-1150%-901%-652%-404%-155%93%-745.7%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)77.8%Ann. vol σ-958.0%Sharpe (ann)-899.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0670.0680.0700.0710.0730.074t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:51 UTC
Snapshot age
5.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:57 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3e3d85804165cb4175fa308874ffd5ef642d5ef1e38dbdbe4a2c8c1f75aee048 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,519HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.7HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.22K
bid $613 · ask $610
Depth within 10bp
$5.43K
bid $3.38K · ask $2.05K
Depth within 50bp
$29.87K
bid $14.15K · ask $15.72K
Mid price
0.069601
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.078
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.090
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-2z/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0696263.64bp0.0696413FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.06971616.50bp0.06984112FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.06982331.97bp0.07007720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0695783.32bp0.0695652FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.06950613.70bp0.06938211FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.06933138.77bp0.06899720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-9.524e-5
-0.00952% / hr
Annualised APR
-83.491%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
4.4d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
4.4d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE83.491%4.4d43.7d
SHORTPAY-83.491%4.4d43.7d

/api/asset/hl-2z/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$4.72M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-2z/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.186 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.73M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.19M
real volume
Net delta
$542.39K
buyers net
Imbalance
18.59%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
18.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-2z/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.66% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 13:00:00Z7.0h0.072323→0.0703992.660%8
#22026-06-14 06:00:00Z2.0h0.071020→0.0700921.307%3
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.071002→0.0702031.125%3

/api/asset/hl-2z/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
77.83%
σ per bar = 0.000339
Mean return (annualised)
-745.66%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.58
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.45%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.07 over 3207 bars

/api/asset/hl-2z/risk · same metrics, JSON