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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ETH

ETH-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-eth · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.27%
realized vol (ann.)
20.53%
max drawdown
0.55%
sharpe
-12.24
ulcer index
0.21%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.17%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1173.02
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.48%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-521.72
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.27%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-eth/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1673.0
24h Δ · live
-0.27%
24h vol · live
$666.0M
ETH · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1678.2680 · σ=3.2986 · range [1672.6000, 1685.8000] · R²=0.098▼ FALLING -0.29%σ LOW 0.20%LAST 1673.00001685.80001682.50001679.20001675.90001672.6000μ = 1678.2680max 1685.8000min 1672.6000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1673.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=398,594 · μ=15943.8 · σ=38698.7 · CV=2.43BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=20049,17998,358147,537196,715μ = 15944196,715.47550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 196715 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.0s
$mark $
$1,673
$mid $
$1,673.05
◉prev-day close
$1,677.6
Δ24h Δ %
-0.274%
$24h vol $
$666.00M
◐open interest $
$1.24B
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1678.2680 · σ=3.2986 · range [1672.6000, 1685.8000] · R²=0.098▼ FALLING -0.29%σ LOW 0.20%LAST 1673.00001685.80001682.50001679.20001675.90001672.6000μ = 1678.2680max 1685.8000min 1672.6000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1673.0000 · 24h -0.27% · range $[1672.6000, 1685.8000]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [1668.4000, 1696.4000] · σ=3.2986 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=39%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 1673.0000 vs OPEN 1673.4000 (-0.02%)&#9660; CLOSE 1673.00001696.40001689.40001682.40001675.40001668.4000μ close = 1678.2680O1673.400 H1677.900 L1672.700 C1677.900 (+0.27%)O1673.400 H1677.900 L1672.700 C1677.900 (+0.27%)O1677.900 H1683.000 L1676.400 C1680.000 (+0.13%)O1677.900 H1683.000 L1676.400 C1680.000 (+0.13%)O1680.100 H1680.800 L1676.000 C1677.500 (-0.15%)O1680.100 H1680.800 L1676.000 C1677.500 (-0.15%)O1677.300 H1680.800 L1677.000 C1679.300 (+0.12%)O1677.300 H1680.800 L1677.000 C1679.300 (+0.12%)O1679.300 H1685.800 L1678.000 C1681.700 (+0.14%)O1679.300 H1685.800 L1678.000 C1681.700 (+0.14%)O1681.700 H1681.700 L1670.300 C1676.200 (-0.33%)O1681.700 H1681.700 L1670.300 C1676.200 (-0.33%)O1676.200 H1677.700 L1672.700 C1673.800 (-0.14%)O1676.200 H1677.700 L1672.700 C1673.800 (-0.14%)O1673.800 H1681.800 L1673.600 C1677.600 (+0.23%)O1673.800 H1681.800 L1673.600 C1677.600 (+0.23%)O1677.500 H1679.400 L1675.100 C1677.900 (+0.02%)O1677.500 H1679.400 L1675.100 C1677.900 (+0.02%)O1677.800 H1677.800 L1674.300 C1675.600 (-0.13%)O1677.800 H1677.800 L1674.300 C1675.600 (-0.13%)0.6%O1675.500 H1696.400 L1673.900 C1685.800 (+0.61%)O1675.500 H1696.400 L1673.900 C1685.800 (+0.61%)O1685.700 H1685.900 L1680.900 C1681.100 (-0.27%)O1685.700 H1685.900 L1680.900 C1681.100 (-0.27%)O1681.000 H1683.500 L1677.300 C1680.300 (-0.04%)O1681.000 H1683.500 L1677.300 C1680.300 (-0.04%)O1680.400 H1682.800 L1678.000 C1681.400 (+0.06%)O1680.400 H1682.800 L1678.000 C1681.400 (+0.06%)O1681.400 H1689.600 L1679.700 C1683.300 (+0.11%)O1681.400 H1689.600 L1679.700 C1683.300 (+0.11%)O1683.300 H1685.100 L1680.900 C1681.800 (-0.09%)O1683.300 H1685.100 L1680.900 C1681.800 (-0.09%)O1681.800 H1682.700 L1679.200 C1681.100 (-0.04%)O1681.800 H1682.700 L1679.200 C1681.100 (-0.04%)O1681.100 H1682.000 L1675.700 C1677.300 (-0.23%)O1681.100 H1682.000 L1675.700 C1677.300 (-0.23%)O1677.300 H1678.400 L1673.700 C1677.700 (+0.02%)O1677.300 H1678.400 L1673.700 C1677.700 (+0.02%)O1677.300 H1682.600 L1673.400 C1675.800 (-0.09%)O1677.300 H1682.600 L1673.400 C1675.800 (-0.09%)O1675.900 H1676.600 L1673.000 C1675.200 (-0.04%)O1675.900 H1676.600 L1673.000 C1675.200 (-0.04%)O1675.200 H1677.900 L1673.900 C1674.900 (-0.02%)O1675.200 H1677.900 L1673.900 C1674.900 (-0.02%)O1674.900 H1678.500 L1668.400 C1677.900 (+0.18%)O1674.900 H1678.500 L1668.400 C1677.900 (+0.18%)O1677.900 H1678.000 L1672.500 C1672.600 (-0.32%)O1677.900 H1678.000 L1672.500 C1672.600 (-0.32%)O1672.600 H1674.300 L1671.800 C1673.000 (+0.02%)O1672.600 H1674.300 L1671.800 C1673.000 (+0.02%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=398,594 · μ=15943.8 · σ=38698.7 · CV=2.43BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=20049,17998,358147,537196,715μ = 159443,208.635 · 1.6% peak3,208.635 · 1.6% peak2,624.654 · 1.3% peak2,624.654 · 1.3% peak6,247.611 · 3.2% peak6,247.611 · 3.2% peak1,861.883 · 0.9% peak1,861.883 · 0.9% peak33,461.231 · 17.0% peak33,461.231 · 17.0% peak17,583.573 · 8.9% peak17,583.573 · 8.9% peak7,397.133 · 3.8% peak7,397.133 · 3.8% peak6,165.645 · 3.1% peak6,165.645 · 3.1% peak2,465.886 · 1.3% peak2,465.886 · 1.3% peak5,946.738 · 3.0% peak5,946.738 · 3.0% peak20,334.645 · 10.3% peak20,334.645 · 10.3% peak9,262.757 · 4.7% peak9,262.757 · 4.7% peak10,252.031 · 5.2% peak10,252.031 · 5.2% peak2,221.285 · 1.1% peak2,221.285 · 1.1% peak4,119.249 · 2.1% peak4,119.249 · 2.1% peak1,582.392 · 0.8% peak1,582.392 · 0.8% peak988.029 · 0.5% peak988.029 · 0.5% peak6,889.248 · 3.5% peak6,889.248 · 3.5% peak3,985.059 · 2.0% peak3,985.059 · 2.0% peak196,715.475196,715.475 · 100.0% peak196,715.475 · 100.0% peak8,394.003 · 4.3% peak8,394.003 · 4.3% peak5,206.208 · 2.6% peak5,206.208 · 2.6% peak33,882.903 · 17.2% peak33,882.903 · 17.2% peak5,946.8 · 3.0% peak5,946.8 · 3.0% peak1,851.379 · 0.9% peak1,851.379 · 0.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 398594 · peak 196715 · CV 2.43

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0019 · skew=0.90 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.42 (leptokurtic (fat tails))54310 3-28.86bpbin -28.86bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -28.86bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-21.08bpbin -21.08bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -21.08bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-13.29bpbin -13.29bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -13.29bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-5.50bpbin -5.50bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -5.50bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 32.28bpbin 2.28bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 2.28bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 410.07bpbin 10.07bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 10.07bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 217.86bpbin 17.86bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 17.86bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 125.65bpbin 25.65bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 25.65bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak33.43bp41.22bp49.01bp 156.80bpbin 56.80bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 56.80bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.93 · kurt=1.89 · near 21 / mid 2 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00MODERATE DEPARTURE · SOME OUTLIERSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1,673
Mid price
$1,673.05
24h change
-0.27%
Mark–mid spread
0.30 bps
Prev-day close
$1,677.6

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1678.2680$95% CI: [1676.9750$, 1679.5610$]
σ STD DEV3.2986$σ² = 10.881 · CV = 0.20%
med MEDIAN1677.9000$Q₁ 1675.8000$ · Q₃ 1681.1000$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 13.2000$ · IQR 5.3000$ (1.349σ→4.4498$)
min 1672.6000$Q₁ 1675.8000$med 1677.9000$Q₃ 1681.1000$max 1685.8000$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.224approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.658mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.84
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.00
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-5.65
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.012186%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.060
σᵣ STD / h0.202024%σ²ᵣ = 0.041×10⁻⁴ · CV = 16.58×
σ ANNUALISED18.91%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.202%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-5.65negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-6.31downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.99right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.65leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.12
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-106.75%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.31%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.311%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.325%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.322%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN0.78%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.311%VaR₉₉−0.325%ES₉₅−0.322%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEshallow drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK168580.00$
−0.78% drawdown over 13h
167260.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONshallow drawdownrecovery needed: +0.79% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
43.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.150 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1685.1717
Bollinger MA
$1678.0150
Bollinger lower
$1670.8583

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.38 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.382within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.145lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.857strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.577fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.857
H = 0.857STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.382k=2-0.145k=3+0.232k=4+0.027k=5-0.3670+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.58)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.38 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.58)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$666.00M
Open interest (USD)
$1.24B
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.54x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.61% · worst -0.33% · typical |Δ| 0.15%MILD BEARISH -0.29%BEST+0.61%21hWORST-0.33%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.15%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.29%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.30%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.09%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.08%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.29%+0.47%-0.32%0.13% · 12h0.13% · 12h0.13%12h-0.15% · 13h-0.15% · 13h-0.15%13h0.11% · 14h0.11% · 14h0.11%14h0.14% · 15h0.14% · 15h0.14%15h-0.33% · 16h-0.33% · 16h-0.33%16h▼ WORST-0.14% · 17h-0.14% · 17h-0.14%17h0.23% · 18h0.23% · 18h0.23%18h0.02% · 19h0.02% · 19h0.02%19h-0.14% · 20h-0.14% · 20h-0.14%20h0.61% · 21h0.61% · 21h0.61%21h★ BEST-0.28% · 22h-0.28% · 22h-0.28%22h-0.05% · 23h-0.05% · 23h-0.05%23h0.07% · 00h0.07% · 00h0.07%00h0.11% · 01h0.11% · 01h0.11%01h-0.09% · 02h-0.09% · 02h-0.09%02h-0.04% · 03h-0.04% · 03h-0.04%03h-0.23% · 04h-0.23% · 04h-0.23%04h0.02% · 05h0.02% · 05h0.02%05h-0.11% · 06h-0.11% · 06h-0.11%06h-0.04% · 07h-0.04% · 07h-0.04%07h-0.02% · 08h-0.02% · 08h-0.02%08h0.18% · 09h0.18% · 09h0.18%09h-0.32% · 10h-0.32% · 10h-0.32%10h0.02% · 11h0.02% · 11h0.02%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.09%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.61% · worst -0.33% · typical |Δ| 0.148%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.30%)FINAL-0.30%MAX DD-0.78%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.47%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9970 · peak 1.0047 · range [0.9968, 1.0047]1.00470.9968break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0047UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.78% · shallow0%-0.78%▼ TROUGH -0.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -0.78%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.47%bar 6-10 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.15%bar 3-4 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.78%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9970 (-0.30%) · max DD -0.78% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-16.51 · σ=29.90MIXED EDGELAST -26.73 (-0.34σ vs μ)87.7043.850.00-43.85-87.70μ = -16.51-19.70-19.70-10.40-10.401.811.81-16.76-16.7611.3811.3814.0814.0819.2319.2311.5911.5916.4016.4019.1919.19-31.77-31.77-29.49-29.49-19.79-19.79-44.46-44.46-87.70-87.70-71.89-71.89-21.89-21.89-26.74-26.74-26.73-26.73v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -26.730 · range [-87.70, 19.23] · μ -16.507 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=18.8916 · σ=8.0755 · range [8.0300, 31.2343] · R²=0.333▼ FALLING -15.48%σ EXTREME 42.75%LAST 15.322931.234325.433219.632213.83118.0300μ = 18.8916max 31.2343min 8.0300dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 15.32% · range [8.03%, 31.23%] · μ 18.89% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.309 · σ=0.256MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.551 (-0.94σ vs μ)0.7090.3550.000-0.355-0.709μ = -0.309-0.160-0.160-0.169-0.169-0.060-0.060-0.192-0.192-0.121-0.121-0.613-0.613-0.517-0.517-0.543-0.543-0.549-0.549-0.347-0.3470.1170.1170.1080.108-0.026-0.026-0.389-0.389-0.709-0.709-0.572-0.572-0.132-0.132-0.444-0.444-0.551-0.551v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.551 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
10.9379
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0042
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
10.5854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0596
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5375
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1095
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8760
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3810
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2609
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2504
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.9845
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0472
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.396 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.40e-6 · top T=3.00h (34.5%) · top-3 cover 72.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.8e-51.4e-59.1e-64.6e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.23e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.23e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.47e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.47e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.53e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.53e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.80e-6 · 7.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.80e-6 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.84e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.84e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.37e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.37e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.55e-6 · 16.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.55e-6 · 16.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 34.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 34.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.11e-7 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.11e-7 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.61e-6 · 6.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.61e-6 · 6.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.60e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.60e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 22.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 22.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 34.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.276e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-150.60×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -27.22400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.012
annualized -27.22
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -539% · APY -100% · Sharpe -28.50σ ann 19% · Sortino -17.09 · n 4999
-3420%-2732%-2043%-1354%-666%23%-539.4%APR (simple)-99.6%APY (compound)18.9%Ann. vol σ-2850.1%Sharpe (ann)-1708.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
160316321662169217211751t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:22:44 UTC
Snapshot age
3.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:22:49 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
47a278c6f87296ba8357c65a6ce1f09ade245f31c0f896c2e75e4982132d1b9e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,503HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.7HL PERPSOL-USD perpetual$68.07

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$608.03K
bid $293.67K · ask $314.36K
Depth within 5bp
$7.31M
bid $3.81M · ask $3.50M
Depth within 10bp
$17.21M
bid $8.83M · ask $8.38M
Depth within 50bp
$19.37M
bid $10.26M · ask $9.11M
Mid price
1673.050000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.060
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.305
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-eth/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1673.100.30bp1673.101FILLED
BUY$10.00K1673.100.30bp1673.101FILLED
BUY$100.00K1673.100.30bp1673.101FILLED
SELL$1.00K1673.000.30bp1673.001FILLED
SELL$10.00K1673.000.30bp1673.001FILLED
SELL$100.00K1673.000.30bp1673.001FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-eth/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 2 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1684.00–$1686.001$20.33K
$1682.00–$1684.001$4.12K
$1680.00–$1682.007$60.39K
$1678.00–$1680.001$1.86K
$1676.00–$1678.008$80.43K
$1674.00–$1676.00★4$216.26K
$1672.00–$1674.003$15.20K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-eth/volprofile?priceStep=2

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.429 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$112.97K
real volume
Sell weight
$282.41K
real volume
Net delta
$169.44K
sellers net
Imbalance
-42.85%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
42.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-eth/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 0 found · deepest 0.00% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

no clusters detected with the current parameters. Either the market has been calm or the threshold is too tight.

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
18.92%
σ per bar = 0.000083
Mean return (annualised)
-539.37%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-28.50
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.83%
peak 1682.60 → trough 1668.60 over 3662 bars

/api/asset/hl-eth/risk · same metrics, JSON