HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #318
Germany
94.4¢
5.6¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
hyperliquid · pred-germany-318 · fresh · feed 5s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
59.82%
max drawdown
1.09%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.65%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.45%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.09%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.13
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.13
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/hl-pred-germany-318/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
Yes mid · live
94.4¢
No mid · live
5.6¢
25 bars · close 94.47¢ · 24h -1.49%
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.310 / 1.00 bits (31%) · informative — one side favoured
Yes94.4%94.4¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp
No5.6%5.6¢17.97×▬ +0.00pp
primary vs counter implied %
Σ 60826 · peak 26100
4.5s
94.434¢
5.566¢
100.00%
0.00pp
25 bars
94.47¢
-1.49%
§1 · 24h time-series
range [93.59¢, 95.90¢] · span 2.31pp · MA(5) latest 94.53¢
25 bars · last close 94.47¢
Σ vol = 60826 · peak 26100 · mean 2433.0
§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 11
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments (prices)
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.02)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁1.698right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.022leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation · skew (G₁): >0 right-tail · kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI uses 1.96·SE around μ. σ × 1.349 ≈ IQR under normality.
§6 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejected
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.610PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§7 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
94.43¢
5.57¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (Yes)
Implied decimal odds
Yes1.06×(94¢)No17.97×(6¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.310 bits (31% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.
§9 · Resolution criteria
This outcome resolves to Yes if Germany wins the Game.
§10 · Hourly return heatmap
9 up bars · 11 down · best 1.36% · worst -1.76% · typical |Δ| 0.344%
§11 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 0.9854 (-1.46%) · max DD -2.29% · time-under-water 24/25 bars
§12 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 4.899 · range [-73.81, 51.54] · μ 5.106 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 98.35% · range [5.67%, 98.35%] · μ 38.54% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.506 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§13 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀**H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
11.7761
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0028
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
8.8341
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1147
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
REJECT H₀***H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-4.7696
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0002
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
0.9752
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3295
KPSS (μ stationarity)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.2759
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2242
Variance ratio q=3
REJECT H₀*H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-2.3890
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0169
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§14 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 25.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.488e-4
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§15 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§16 · Horizon returns
Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.022pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.29ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0526 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.022pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.11pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move7d
0.29pp
σ × √168
Terminal variancebinary
0.0526
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
94.4¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§17 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.04pp · ES₉₅ 0.05pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.01pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.04pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.05pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.1pp
peak 95.4¢ → trough 94.4¢
Median step
0.01pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§18 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
94.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.059
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-1697
risk $1697 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.06 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$5.89
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§19 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.310 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.310 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.08 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
4.17 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§20 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream
- https://hyperliquid.xyz
- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 10:12:26 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 4.5s
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 10:12:30 UTC
- History points
- 25 closes · 25 counter-side closes
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
36121b658bd85611202501f4323d451af4387d43f26fd4d07fafc4b90202f269· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDSpain90.1¢HL PREDUruguay67.7¢HL PREDBelgium59.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,483HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,675.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.55
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26MRealized vol (annualised)
54.53%
σ per bar = 0.000238
Mean return (annualised)
789.84%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
14.48
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.09%
peak 0.95 → trough 0.94 over 23 bars
/api/asset/hl-pred-germany-318/risk · same metrics, JSON