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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ME

ME-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-me · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.55%
realized vol (ann.)
48.56%
max drawdown
1.05%
sharpe
12.35
ulcer index
0.45%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.34%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1329.53
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.02%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
590.59
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.55%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-96.40%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 36%
  • 24h change -2.55%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 24.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-me/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.061
24h Δ · live
-2.55%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
ME · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0624 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0613, 0.0632] · R²=0.478▼ FALLING -2.52%σ LOW 0.97%LAST 0.06140.06320.06270.06230.06180.0613μ = 0.0624max 0.0632min 0.0613dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.48μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.06
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.8%Short fee 50.2%SHORT FEE50.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.02% (99.98pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.011005% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,779,322 · μ=151172.9 · σ=111458.2 · CV=0.74FADING -49% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=80109,022218,043327,065436,086μ = 151173436,08650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 436086 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.1s
$mark $
$0.0615
$mid $
$0.0615
◉prev-day close
$0.0631
Δ24h Δ %
-2.553%
$24h vol $
$232.46k
◐open interest $
$168.70k
%funding (1h)
-0.011005%
%funding (yr)
-96.40%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0624 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0613, 0.0632] · R²=0.478▼ FALLING -2.52%σ LOW 0.97%LAST 0.06140.06320.06270.06230.06180.0613μ = 0.0624max 0.0632min 0.0613dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.48μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0614 · 24h -2.55% · range $[0.0613, 0.0632]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0612, 0.0642] · σ=0.0006 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=47%BEARISH -2.48%CLOSE 0.0614 vs OPEN 0.0630 (-2.48%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.06140.06420.06340.06270.06200.0612μ close = 0.0624O0.063 H0.063 L0.063 C0.063 (+0.05%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.063 C0.063 (+0.05%)-1.8%O0.063 H0.063 L0.062 C0.062 (-1.82%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.062 C0.062 (-1.82%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.062 C0.062 (+0.40%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.062 C0.062 (+0.40%)O0.062 H0.063 L0.062 C0.063 (+0.63%)O0.062 H0.063 L0.062 C0.063 (+0.63%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.062 C0.063 (+0.43%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.062 C0.063 (+0.43%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.063 C0.063 (+0.16%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.063 C0.063 (+0.16%)O0.063 H0.064 L0.063 C0.063 (+0.35%)O0.063 H0.064 L0.063 C0.063 (+0.35%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.063 C0.063 (-0.46%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.063 C0.063 (-0.46%)O0.063 H0.064 L0.063 C0.063 (+0.35%)O0.063 H0.064 L0.063 C0.063 (+0.35%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.063 C0.063 (-0.48%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.063 C0.063 (-0.48%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.063 C0.063 (+0.33%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.063 C0.063 (+0.33%)O0.063 H0.064 L0.063 C0.063 (-0.41%)O0.063 H0.064 L0.063 C0.063 (-0.41%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.063 C0.063 (+0.29%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.063 C0.063 (+0.29%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.062 C0.062 (-0.98%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.062 C0.062 (-0.98%)O0.062 H0.063 L0.062 C0.063 (+0.53%)O0.062 H0.063 L0.062 C0.063 (+0.53%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.062 C0.062 (-0.78%)O0.063 H0.063 L0.062 C0.062 (-0.78%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.062 C0.062 (-0.59%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.062 C0.062 (-0.59%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.062 C0.062 (-0.18%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.062 C0.062 (-0.18%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.15%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.15%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (-0.32%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (-0.32%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.60%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.60%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.78%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.78%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.062 C0.062 (+0.06%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.062 C0.062 (+0.06%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.73%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.73%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.05%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.05%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,779,322 · μ=151172.9 · σ=111458.2 · CV=0.74FADING -49% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=80109,022218,043327,065436,086μ = 15117385,227.6 · 19.5% peak85,227.6 · 19.5% peak310,921.7 · 71.3% peak310,921.7 · 71.3% peak164,803.8 · 37.8% peak164,803.8 · 37.8% peak278,993.2 · 64.0% peak278,993.2 · 64.0% peak55,995.3 · 12.8% peak55,995.3 · 12.8% peak239,067.7 · 54.8% peak239,067.7 · 54.8% peak436,086436,086 · 100.0% peak436,086 · 100.0% peak349,262.6 · 80.1% peak349,262.6 · 80.1% peak110,174 · 25.3% peak110,174 · 25.3% peak150,890.3 · 34.6% peak150,890.3 · 34.6% peak56,054 · 12.9% peak56,054 · 12.9% peak262,904.6 · 60.3% peak262,904.6 · 60.3% peak82,011.3 · 18.8% peak82,011.3 · 18.8% peak189,643.6 · 43.5% peak189,643.6 · 43.5% peak217,416.4 · 49.9% peak217,416.4 · 49.9% peak45,931.9 · 10.5% peak45,931.9 · 10.5% peak70,171.9 · 16.1% peak70,171.9 · 16.1% peak125,068.8 · 28.7% peak125,068.8 · 28.7% peak215,851.9 · 49.5% peak215,851.9 · 49.5% peak98,004.8 · 22.5% peak98,004.8 · 22.5% peak33,935.2 · 7.8% peak33,935.2 · 7.8% peak53,920.3 · 12.4% peak53,920.3 · 12.4% peak66,750.8 · 15.3% peak66,750.8 · 15.3% peak53,710.2 · 12.3% peak53,710.2 · 12.3% peak26,524 · 6.1% peak26,524 · 6.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3779322 · peak 436086 · CV 0.74

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0011 · σ=0.0058 · skew=-0.74 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.36 (mesokurtic)43210 1-173.05bpbin -173.05bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -173.05bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-150.95bp-128.84bp-106.73bp 2-84.62bpbin -84.62bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -84.62bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-62.52bpbin -62.52bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -62.52bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-40.41bpbin -40.41bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -40.41bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-18.30bpbin -18.30bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -18.30bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 23.81bpbin 3.81bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 3.81bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 425.91bpbin 25.91bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 25.91bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 448.02bpbin 48.02bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 48.02bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 270.13bpbin 70.13bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 70.13bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.86 · kurt=0.76 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0615
Mid price
$0.0615
24h change
-2.55%
Mark–mid spread
3.25 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0631

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.58)
μ MEAN0.0624$95% CI: [0.0621$, 0.0626$]
σ STD DEV0.0006$σ² = 0.004×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.97%
med MEDIAN0.0625$Q₁ 0.0618$ · Q₃ 0.0629$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0018$ · IQR 0.0011$ (1.349σ→0.0008$)
min 0.0613$Q₁ 0.0618$med 0.0625$Q₃ 0.0629$max 0.0632$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.178approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.577platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.17
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.78
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.03
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-16.34
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.106440%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.175
σᵣ STD / h0.609798%σ²ᵣ = 0.372×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.73×
σ ANNUALISED57.07%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.610%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-16.34negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-14.01downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.92left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.24leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.86
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-932.41%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.86%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.859%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.616%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.351%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.90%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.859%VaR₉₉−1.616%ES₉₅−1.351%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK6.32$
−2.90% drawdown over 14h
6.13$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.57× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.88× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.98% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
38.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.154 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0636
Bollinger MA
$0.0623
Bollinger lower
$0.0611

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.225within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.020lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.865strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.590significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.865
H = 0.865STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.225k=2+0.020k=3-0.124k=4+0.103k=5-0.2260+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.59)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.96very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.59)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$232.46k
Open interest (USD)
$168.70k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.38x
1h funding
-0.011005%
Funding (annualised)
-96.40%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.81% · worst -1.84% · typical |Δ| 0.49%MILD BEARISH -2.55%BEST+0.81%08hWORST-1.84%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.49%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.55%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.34% · Σ -2.69%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.04% · Σ +0.33%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.55%+0.21%-2.73%-1.84% · 12h-1.84% · 12h-1.84%12h▼ WORST0.42% · 13h0.42% · 13h0.42%13h0.66% · 14h0.66% · 14h0.66%14h0.38% · 15h0.38% · 15h0.38%15h0.24% · 16h0.24% · 16h0.24%16h0.35% · 17h0.35% · 17h0.35%17h-0.44% · 18h-0.44% · 18h-0.44%18h0.40% · 19h0.40% · 19h0.40%19h-0.49% · 20h-0.49% · 20h-0.49%20h0.35% · 21h0.35% · 21h0.35%21h-0.35% · 22h-0.35% · 22h-0.35%22h0.29% · 23h0.29% · 23h0.29%23h-0.86% · 00h-0.86% · 00h-0.86%00h0.53% · 01h0.53% · 01h0.53%01h-0.85% · 02h-0.85% · 02h-0.85%02h-0.56% · 03h-0.56% · 03h-0.56%03h-0.16% · 04h-0.16% · 04h-0.16%04h-0.05% · 05h-0.05% · 05h-0.05%05h-0.16% · 06h-0.16% · 06h-0.16%06h-0.57% · 07h-0.57% · 07h-0.57%07h0.81% · 08h0.81% · 08h0.81%08h★ BEST0.13% · 09h0.13% · 09h0.13%09h-0.68% · 10h-0.68% · 10h-0.68%10h-0.08% · 11h-0.08% · 11h-0.08%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.33%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 6BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.81% · worst -1.84% · typical |Δ| 0.485%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.57%)FINAL-2.57%MAX DD-2.91%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.18%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9743 · peak 1.0018 · range [0.9727, 1.0018]1.00180.9727break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0018UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.91% · moderate0%-2.91%▼ TROUGH -2.91%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.91%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.84%bar 2-6 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.91%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9743 (-2.57%) · max DD -2.91% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-13.98 · σ=41.23UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -16.01 (-0.05σ vs μ)116.9558.470.00-58.47-116.95μ = -13.983.463.4666.7166.7166.0766.0715.9115.9114.8414.84-6.80-6.80-9.26-9.26-19.81-19.81-15.19-15.19-22.48-22.48-48.19-48.19-43.04-43.04-56.72-56.72-41.69-41.69-116.95-116.95-21.40-21.400.000.00-15.05-15.05-16.01-16.01v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -16.012 · range [-116.95, 66.71] · μ -13.979 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=47.3824 · σ=12.3238 · range [29.3667, 86.9560] · R²=0.006▼ FALLING -42.14%σ EXTREME 26.01%LAST 50.312486.956072.558758.161443.764129.3667μ = 47.3824max 86.9560min 29.3667dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 50.31% · range [29.37%, 86.96%] · μ 47.38% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.414 · σ=0.332MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.231 (+0.55σ vs μ)0.8650.4320.000-0.432-0.865μ = -0.414-0.030-0.0300.0580.058-0.162-0.162-0.444-0.444-0.697-0.697-0.865-0.865-0.846-0.846-0.626-0.626-0.750-0.750-0.752-0.752-0.659-0.659-0.650-0.650-0.533-0.533-0.222-0.2220.3170.317-0.302-0.302-0.236-0.236-0.231-0.231-0.231-0.231v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.231 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.9034
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0861
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.8517
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5731
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4028
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5796
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9720
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6216
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0207
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4663
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1426
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.554 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.13e-5 · top T=2.00h (27.4%) · top-3 cover 51.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.4e-41.0e-46.8e-53.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.04e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.04e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.79e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.79e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.04e-5 · 12.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.04e-5 · 12.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.29e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.29e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.86e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.86e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.56e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.56e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.12e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.12e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.57e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.57e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.88e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.88e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.12e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.12e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.71e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.71e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.36e-4 · 27.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.36e-4 · 27.4% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 27.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.955e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-34.25×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -23.53400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.010
annualized -23.53
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -20.91σ ann 61% · Sortino -13.36 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2509%-1992%-1476%-960%-443%73%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)61.0%Ann. vol σ-2090.7%Sharpe (ann)-1336.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0590.0600.0610.0620.0640.065t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:26 UTC
Snapshot age
2.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c987eca71d00aa8fec49c8f74ef52d7bb50236b18acfd439c2e78daa54557cdc · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,504HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.73

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.38K
bid $1.66K · ask $728
Depth within 10bp
$7.37K
bid $5.25K · ask $2.12K
Depth within 50bp
$20.98K
bid $12.73K · ask $8.25K
Mid price
0.061475
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.236
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.193
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-me/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0614953.32bp0.0615102FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.06167031.70bp0.06202019FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.06168934.80bp0.06215020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0614602.44bp0.0614601FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.06139612.88bp0.06129011FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.06127133.24bp0.06078020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.100e-4
-0.01100% / hr
Annualised APR
-96.468%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
3.8d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
3.8d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE96.468%3.8d37.9d
SHORTPAY-96.468%3.8d37.9d

/api/asset/hl-me/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.78M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-me/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.046 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.76M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.93M
real volume
Net delta
$171.55K
sellers net
Imbalance
-4.64%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
4.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-me/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 1.94% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 02:00:00Z3.0h0.063010→0.0617901.936%4
#22026-06-13 12:00:00Z2.0h0.063040→0.0618901.824%3
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms0.063050→0.0624700.920%1

/api/asset/hl-me/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
61.04%
σ per bar = 0.000266
Mean return (annualised)
-1276.14%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-20.91
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.64%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.06 over 1490 bars

/api/asset/hl-me/risk · same metrics, JSON