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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ZORA

ZORA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-zora · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.02%
realized vol (ann.)
54.35%
max drawdown
1.09%
sharpe
-10.63
ulcer index
0.53%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.46%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1098.07
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.98%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-589.84
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.02%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-85.63%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 20.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-zora/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.008
24h Δ · live
0.02%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
ZORA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0083 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0081, 0.0085] · R²=0.006▲ RISING +0.37%σ NORMAL 1.14%LAST 0.00820.00850.00840.00830.00820.0081μ = 0.0083max 0.0085min 0.0081dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.7%Short fee 50.3%SHORT FEE50.3%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.02% (99.98pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.7%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.3%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.009775% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=49,203,751 · μ=1968150.0 · σ=3413145.7 · CV=1.73BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1503,843,8327,687,66411,531,49515,375,327μ = 196815015,375,32750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 15375327 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6.1s
$mark $
$0.0082
$mid $
$0.0082
◉prev-day close
$0.0082
Δ24h Δ %
+0.024%
$24h vol $
$409.78k
◐open interest $
$574.74k
%funding (1h)
-0.009775%
%funding (yr)
-85.63%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0083 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0081, 0.0085] · R²=0.006▲ RISING +0.37%σ NORMAL 1.14%LAST 0.00820.00850.00840.00830.00820.0081μ = 0.0083max 0.0085min 0.0081dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0082 · 24h 0.02% · range $[0.0081, 0.0085]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.0081, 0.0086] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=39%BULLISH +0.41%CLOSE 0.0082 vs OPEN 0.0081 (+0.41%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00820.00860.00850.00840.00830.0081μ close = 0.0083O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.04%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.04%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.16%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.16%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.48%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.48%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.28%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.28%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.33%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.33%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.05%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.05%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.57%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.57%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.29%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.29%)2.2%O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+2.22%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+2.22%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.48%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.48%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.13%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.13%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.21%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.21%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.23%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.23%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.45%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.45%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.04%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.04%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.16%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.16%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.17%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.17%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.52%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.52%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.40%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.40%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.33%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.33%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.21%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.21%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.27%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.27%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.11%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.11%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=49,203,751 · μ=1968150.0 · σ=3413145.7 · CV=1.73BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1503,843,8327,687,66411,531,49515,375,327μ = 1968150293,091 · 1.9% peak293,091 · 1.9% peak507,836 · 3.3% peak507,836 · 3.3% peak575,350 · 3.7% peak575,350 · 3.7% peak1,061,955 · 6.9% peak1,061,955 · 6.9% peak532,898 · 3.5% peak532,898 · 3.5% peak915,653 · 6.0% peak915,653 · 6.0% peak913,281 · 5.9% peak913,281 · 5.9% peak1,080,504 · 7.0% peak1,080,504 · 7.0% peak1,083,988 · 7.1% peak1,083,988 · 7.1% peak1,471,729 · 9.6% peak1,471,729 · 9.6% peak946,746 · 6.2% peak946,746 · 6.2% peak1,490,868 · 9.7% peak1,490,868 · 9.7% peak1,901,317 · 12.4% peak1,901,317 · 12.4% peak10,495,428 · 68.3% peak10,495,428 · 68.3% peak15,375,32715,375,327 · 100.0% peak15,375,327 · 100.0% peak2,359,313 · 15.3% peak2,359,313 · 15.3% peak1,201,390 · 7.8% peak1,201,390 · 7.8% peak1,841,892 · 12.0% peak1,841,892 · 12.0% peak420,793 · 2.7% peak420,793 · 2.7% peak670,729 · 4.4% peak670,729 · 4.4% peak763,035 · 5.0% peak763,035 · 5.0% peak1,329,727 · 8.6% peak1,329,727 · 8.6% peak842,887 · 5.5% peak842,887 · 5.5% peak835,439 · 5.4% peak835,439 · 5.4% peak292,575 · 1.9% peak292,575 · 1.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 49203751 · peak 15375327 · CV 1.73

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0072 · skew=0.81 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.60 (leptokurtic (fat tails))97520 1-137.15bpbin -137.15bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -137.15bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 2-106.57bpbin -106.57bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -106.57bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak-75.98bp 4-45.40bpbin -45.40bp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin -45.40bp · n=4 · 44.4% peak 4-14.82bpbin -14.82bp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin -14.82bp · n=4 · 44.4% peak 915.76bpbin 15.76bp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 15.76bp · n=9 · 100.0% peak 246.35bpbin 46.35bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 46.35bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak76.93bp107.51bp138.10bp 1168.68bpbin 168.68bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 168.68bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1199.26bpbin 199.26bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 199.26bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.69 · kurt=1.61 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0082
Mid price
$0.0082
24h change
+0.02%
Mark–mid spread
1.22 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0082

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0083$95% CI: [0.0083$, 0.0083$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.14%
med MEDIAN0.0083$Q₁ 0.0082$ · Q₃ 0.0084$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0081$Q₁ 0.0082$med 0.0083$Q₃ 0.0084$max 0.0085$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.493approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.578mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.88
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 4.00
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDGOOD · SR=1.84
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.015313%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.020
σᵣ STD / h0.778672%σ²ᵣ = 0.606×10⁻⁴ · CV = 50.85×
σ ANNUALISED72.88%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.779%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)1.84good · industry threshold
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)1.98good downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)32.77exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.74right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.30leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.07
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 32.77
EXPECTED EDGE+134.14%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.15%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.154%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.442%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.346%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.09%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.154%VaR₉₉−1.442%ES₉₅−1.346%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK0.85$
−4.09% drawdown over 16h
0.82$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.25× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.27% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.128 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0085
Bollinger MA
$0.0083
Bollinger lower
$0.0081

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.41 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.414negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.540lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.874strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.385fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.874
H = 0.874STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..52 SIGNIFICANT LAGS · k=1,2
k=1-0.414k=2 ★+0.540k=3-0.352k=4+0.156k=5-0.1080+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.39)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.41 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.39)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$409.78k
Open interest (USD)
$574.74k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.71x
1h funding
-0.009775%
Funding (annualised)
-85.63%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
2.526× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.263× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.631×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.15% · worst -1.52% · typical |Δ| 0.53%MILD BULLISH +0.37%BEST+2.15%19hWORST-1.52%20hTYPICAL |Δ|0.53%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.37%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.58%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.10% · Σ +0.79%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.16%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.37%+4.55%0.00%0.25% · 12h0.25% · 12h0.25%12h0.37% · 13h0.37% · 13h0.37%13h0.28% · 14h0.28% · 14h0.28%14h0.27% · 15h0.27% · 15h0.27%15h0.07% · 16h0.07% · 16h0.07%16h1.67% · 17h1.67% · 17h1.67%17h-0.50% · 18h-0.50% · 18h-0.50%18h2.15% · 19h2.15% · 19h2.15%19h★ BEST-1.52% · 20h-1.52% · 20h-1.52%20h▼ WORST0.17% · 21h0.17% · 21h0.17%21h-1.08% · 22h-1.08% · 22h-1.08%22h0.20% · 23h0.20% · 23h0.20%23h0.23% · 00h0.23% · 00h0.23%00h0.37% · 01h0.37% · 01h0.37%01h-0.38% · 02h-0.38% · 02h-0.38%02h-0.01% · 03h-0.01% · 03h-0.01%03h-1.17% · 04h-1.17% · 04h-1.17%04h0.29% · 05h0.29% · 05h0.29%05h-0.47% · 06h-0.47% · 06h-0.47%06h-0.44% · 07h-0.44% · 07h-0.44%07h0.27% · 08h0.27% · 08h0.27%08h-0.22% · 09h-0.22% · 09h-0.22%09h-0.23% · 10h-0.23% · 10h-0.23%10h-0.18% · 11h-0.18% · 11h-0.18%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.16%)RUNSup max 6 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 2.15% · worst -1.52% · typical |Δ| 0.533%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.30%FINAL+0.30%MAX DD-4.12%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.61%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0030 · peak 1.0461 · range [1.0000, 1.0461]1.04611.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0461UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.12% · moderate0%-4.12%▼ TROUGH -4.12%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.12%bar 10-25 · 16 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.50%bar 8-8 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.12%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0030 (0.30%) · max DD -4.12% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-9.45 · σ=41.59MIXED EDGELAST -75.24 (-1.58σ vs μ)76.8238.410.00-38.41-76.82μ = -9.4576.8276.8247.0047.0060.0660.0624.3824.3823.1923.199.259.25-7.07-7.071.751.75-31.35-31.35-13.84-13.84-19.29-19.29-20.67-20.67-17.99-17.99-37.42-37.42-69.02-69.02-43.00-43.00-49.88-49.88-37.25-37.25-75.24-75.24v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -75.236 · range [-75.24, 76.82] · μ -9.451 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=73.5941 · σ=36.0954 · range [24.7570, 138.9923] · R²=0.442▼ FALLING -55.13%σ EXTREME 49.05%LAST 24.7570138.9923110.433581.874653.315824.7570μ = 73.5941max 138.9923min 24.7570dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 24.76% · range [24.76%, 138.99%] · μ 73.59% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.421 · σ=0.216MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.152 (+1.24σ vs μ)0.7220.3610.000-0.361-0.722μ = -0.421-0.174-0.174-0.575-0.575-0.597-0.597-0.686-0.686-0.648-0.648-0.515-0.515-0.603-0.603-0.466-0.466-0.220-0.220-0.288-0.288-0.131-0.1310.0110.011-0.307-0.307-0.575-0.575-0.722-0.722-0.579-0.579-0.427-0.427-0.334-0.334-0.152-0.152v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.152 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
7.4843
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0237
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
17.7453
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0034
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8990
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3434
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2209
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3202
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4346
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6639
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.868 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.18e-5 · top T=2.00h (38.2%) · top-3 cover 66.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.3e-42.5e-41.6e-48.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.81e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.81e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.78e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.78e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.37e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.37e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.50e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.50e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.07e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.07e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.88e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.88e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.71e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.71e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.71e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.71e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.11e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.11e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.27e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.27e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.58e-4 · 18.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.58e-4 · 18.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.29e-4 · 38.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.29e-4 · 38.2% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 38.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.620e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-78.77×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -45.52400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.020
annualized -45.52
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -44.41σ ann 56% · Sortino -30.97 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5329%-4250%-3170%-2091%-1012%68%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)56.4%Ann. vol σ-4440.7%Sharpe (ann)-3097.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0080.0080.0080.0080.0090.009t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:15 UTC
Snapshot age
6.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a96e412b692bdcade0d156981bcf5c0bcfc39d0fde35833f9adb60fb0a1cf306 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.70K
bid $899 · ask $804
Depth within 10bp
$8.07K
bid $5.61K · ask $2.46K
Depth within 50bp
$39.09K
bid $19.78K · ask $19.31K
Mid price
0.008179
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.027
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.031
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-zora/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0081823.78bp0.0081853FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00819013.77bp0.0082009FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00820632.89bp0.00822920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0081763.43bp0.0081733FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00816912.12bp0.0081588FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00814936.12bp0.00811520PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-9.775e-5
-0.00977% / hr
Annualised APR
-85.686%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
4.3d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
4.3d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE85.686%4.3d42.6d
SHORTPAY-85.686%4.3d42.6d

/api/asset/hl-zora/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$49.20M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-zora/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.475 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$36.06M
real volume
Sell weight
$12.85M
real volume
Net delta
$23.21M
buyers net
Imbalance
47.45%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
47.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-zora/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.40% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 20:00:00Z4.0h0.008527→0.0083222.404%5
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.008389→0.0082082.158%5
#32026-06-14 11:00:00Z0ms0.008230→0.0081780.632%1

/api/asset/hl-zora/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
56.38%
σ per bar = 0.000246
Mean return (annualised)
-2503.60%
μ per bar = -0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-44.41
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.68%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 4763 bars

/api/asset/hl-zora/risk · same metrics, JSON