Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

LAYER

LAYER-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-layer · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.98%
realized vol (ann.)
91.87%
max drawdown
1.45%
sharpe
9.94
ulcer index
0.87%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.75%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1046.04
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.37%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.03
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
668.81
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.03
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.98%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-8.22%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 39%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-layer/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.066
24h Δ · live
-0.98%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
LAYER · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0665 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0660, 0.0669] · R²=0.240▼ FALLING -0.59%σ LOW 0.38%LAST 0.06630.06690.06670.06650.06630.0660μ = 0.0665max 0.0669min 0.0660dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.07
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.5%Short fee 52.5%SHORT FEE52.5%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.998 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.5%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.5%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000938% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=4,636,185 · μ=185447.4 · σ=260985.1 · CV=1.41BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=150267,406534,813802,2191,069,625μ = 1854471,069,62550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1069625 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.1s
$mark $
$0.0663
$mid $
$0.0663
◉prev-day close
$0.067
Δ24h Δ %
-0.978%
$24h vol $
$307.24k
◐open interest $
$584.09k
%funding (1h)
-0.000938%
%funding (yr)
-8.22%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0665 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0660, 0.0669] · R²=0.240▼ FALLING -0.59%σ LOW 0.38%LAST 0.06630.06690.06670.06650.06630.0660μ = 0.0665max 0.0669min 0.0660dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0663 · 24h -0.98% · range $[0.0660, 0.0669]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0656, 0.0694] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=39%BEARISH -0.69%CLOSE 0.0663 vs OPEN 0.0668 (-0.69%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.06630.06940.06850.06750.06650.0656μ close = 0.0665O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.10%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.10%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.44%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.44%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.15%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.15%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.39%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.39%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (+0.40%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (+0.40%)O0.067 H0.069 L0.066 C0.067 (-0.59%)O0.067 H0.069 L0.066 C0.067 (-0.59%)O0.066 H0.069 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.41%)O0.066 H0.069 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.41%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (-0.30%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (-0.30%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.11%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.11%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.24%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.24%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.41%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.41%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.25%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.25%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (+0.06%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (+0.06%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (-0.30%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (-0.30%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.17%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.17%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (+0.42%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (+0.42%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.11%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.067 C0.067 (-0.11%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.75%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.75%)O0.066 H0.066 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.12%)O0.066 H0.066 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.12%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.18%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.18%)O0.066 H0.066 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.02%)O0.066 H0.066 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.02%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.97%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.067 (+0.97%)-1.0%O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.98%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (-0.98%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (+0.15%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.066 C0.066 (+0.15%)O0.066 H0.066 L0.066 C0.066 (+0.24%)O0.066 H0.066 L0.066 C0.066 (+0.24%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=4,636,185 · μ=185447.4 · σ=260985.1 · CV=1.41BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=150267,406534,813802,2191,069,625μ = 18544737,040 · 3.5% peak37,040 · 3.5% peak78,145 · 7.3% peak78,145 · 7.3% peak57,018 · 5.3% peak57,018 · 5.3% peak54,922 · 5.1% peak54,922 · 5.1% peak72,418 · 6.8% peak72,418 · 6.8% peak623,489 · 58.3% peak623,489 · 58.3% peak760,732 · 71.1% peak760,732 · 71.1% peak38,541 · 3.6% peak38,541 · 3.6% peak75,835 · 7.1% peak75,835 · 7.1% peak77,669 · 7.3% peak77,669 · 7.3% peak61,570 · 5.8% peak61,570 · 5.8% peak60,339 · 5.6% peak60,339 · 5.6% peak37,777 · 3.5% peak37,777 · 3.5% peak104,955 · 9.8% peak104,955 · 9.8% peak345,480 · 32.3% peak345,480 · 32.3% peak168,354 · 15.7% peak168,354 · 15.7% peak43,153 · 4.0% peak43,153 · 4.0% peak58,410 · 5.5% peak58,410 · 5.5% peak90,752 · 8.5% peak90,752 · 8.5% peak1,069,6251,069,625 · 100.0% peak1,069,625 · 100.0% peak160,117 · 15.0% peak160,117 · 15.0% peak352,936 · 33.0% peak352,936 · 33.0% peak67,245 · 6.3% peak67,245 · 6.3% peak120,418 · 11.3% peak120,418 · 11.3% peak19,245 · 1.8% peak19,245 · 1.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 4636185 · peak 1069625 · CV 1.41

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0039 · skew=0.09 (symmetric) · kurt=0.48 (mesokurtic)54310 1-88.80bpbin -88.80bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -88.80bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-72.34bpbin -72.34bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -72.34bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-55.88bpbin -55.88bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -55.88bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-39.41bpbin -39.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -39.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 5-22.95bpbin -22.95bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -22.95bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 5-6.49bpbin -6.49bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -6.49bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 39.97bpbin 9.97bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 9.97bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 526.43bpbin 26.43bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 26.43bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak42.90bp 159.36bpbin 59.36bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 59.36bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak75.82bp 192.28bpbin 92.28bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 92.28bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.01 · kurt=0.69 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0663
Mid price
$0.0663
24h change
-0.98%
Mark–mid spread
2.26 bps
Prev-day close
$0.067

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.00)
μ MEAN0.0665$95% CI: [0.0664$, 0.0666$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.38%
med MEDIAN0.0666$Q₁ 0.0663$ · Q₃ 0.0667$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0009$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0660$Q₁ 0.0663$med 0.0666$Q₃ 0.0667$max 0.0669$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.349approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.000platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.18
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.88
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.56
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-5.53
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.024684%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.059
σᵣ STD / h0.417780%σ²ᵣ = 0.175×10⁻⁴ · CV = 16.93×
σ ANNUALISED39.10%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.418%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-5.53negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-5.61downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.01approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.15leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.01
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-216.23%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.73%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.727%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.922%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.865%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.35%5h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.727%VaR₉₉−0.922%ES₉₅−0.865%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 5h duration
PEAK6.69$
−1.35% drawdown over 5h
6.60$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.19× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.27× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.36% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
46.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.347 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0670
Bollinger MA
$0.0665
Bollinger lower
$0.0659

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.392within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.023lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.492random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.698significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.492
H = 0.492RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.392k=2-0.023k=3-0.005k=4-0.088k=5-0.0220+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.70)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.41high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.70)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$307.24k
Open interest (USD)
$584.09k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.53x
1h funding
-0.000938%
Funding (annualised)
-8.22%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.01% · worst -0.97% · typical |Δ| 0.31%MILD BEARISH -0.59%BEST+1.01%08hWORST-0.97%09hTYPICAL |Δ|0.31%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.59%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.99%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.69%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.30%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.59%+0.33%-1.02%-0.36% · 12h-0.36% · 12h-0.36%12h0.01% · 13h0.01% · 13h0.01%13h0.31% · 14h0.31% · 14h0.31%14h0.30% · 15h0.30% · 15h0.30%15h-0.55% · 16h-0.55% · 16h-0.55%16h0.28% · 17h0.28% · 17h0.28%17h-0.23% · 18h-0.23% · 18h-0.23%18h-0.15% · 19h-0.15% · 19h-0.15%19h-0.22% · 20h-0.22% · 20h-0.22%20h0.55% · 21h0.55% · 21h0.55%21h-0.09% · 22h-0.09% · 22h-0.09%22h0.11% · 23h0.11% · 23h0.11%23h-0.13% · 00h-0.13% · 00h-0.13%00h0.18% · 01h0.18% · 01h0.18%01h0.32% · 02h0.32% · 02h0.32%02h-0.23% · 03h-0.23% · 03h-0.23%03h-0.76% · 04h-0.76% · 04h-0.76%04h-0.04% · 05h-0.04% · 05h-0.04%05h-0.22% · 06h-0.22% · 06h-0.22%06h-0.11% · 07h-0.11% · 07h-0.11%07h1.01% · 08h1.01% · 08h1.01%08h★ BEST-0.97% · 09h-0.97% · 09h-0.97%09h▼ WORST0.30% · 10h0.30% · 10h0.30%10h0.10% · 11h0.10% · 11h0.10%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.69%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.01% · worst -0.97% · typical |Δ| 0.313%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.61%)FINAL-0.61%MAX DD-1.35%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.32%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9939 · peak 1.0032 · range [0.9897, 1.0032]1.00320.9897break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0032UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.35% · moderate0%-1.35%▼ TROUGH -1.35%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.35%bar 17-25 · 9 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.86%bar 6-15 · 10 bars · recovered#3 -0.36%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.35%)RECOVERYongoing · 9 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9939 (-0.61%) · max DD -1.35% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-4.87 · σ=22.83MIXED EDGELAST 2.57 (+0.33σ vs μ)57.1328.560.00-28.56-57.13μ = -4.87-0.13-0.135.825.82-1.44-1.44-26.47-26.47-12.47-12.476.706.70-1.81-1.813.543.5422.2622.2657.1357.1311.7311.73-20.52-20.52-27.46-27.46-30.92-30.92-46.35-46.35-9.43-9.43-24.63-24.63-0.73-0.732.572.57v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 2.573 · range [-46.35, 57.13] · μ -4.873 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=36.9861 · σ=13.1879 · range [19.5866, 64.7128] · R²=0.406▲ RISING +74.11%σ EXTREME 35.66%LAST 60.790964.712853.431342.149730.868219.5866μ = 36.9861max 64.7128min 19.5866dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.41μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 60.79% · range [19.59%, 64.71%] · μ 36.99% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.306 · σ=0.272MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.630 (-1.19σ vs μ)0.7120.3560.000-0.356-0.712μ = -0.306-0.326-0.326-0.481-0.481-0.401-0.401-0.712-0.712-0.369-0.369-0.326-0.326-0.251-0.251-0.405-0.405-0.644-0.644-0.236-0.236-0.350-0.3500.1680.1680.1430.1430.1320.132-0.131-0.1310.0360.036-0.391-0.391-0.640-0.640-0.630-0.630v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.630 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.3283
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5147
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.4465
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4885
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.0497
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0318
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4152
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0706
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7500
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0801
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.467 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.68e-5 · top T=2.18h (21.1%) · top-3 cover 53.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.2e-53.2e-52.1e-51.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.47e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.47e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.20e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.20e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.01e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.01e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.68e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.68e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.13e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.13e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.30e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.30e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.97e-5 · 19.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.97e-5 · 19.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.60e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.60e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.04e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.04e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.25e-5 · 21.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.25e-5 · 21.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.74e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.74e-6 · 0.9% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 21.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.016e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-12.59×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -8.30400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.004
annualized -8.30
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -926% · APY -100% · Sharpe -10.79σ ann 86% · Sortino -9.85 · n 4999
-1295%-1016%-736%-456%-177%103%-925.7%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)85.8%Ann. vol σ-1079.5%Sharpe (ann)-985.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0630.0640.0660.0670.0690.070t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:21:57 UTC
Snapshot age
1.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:21:58 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4b4235e1b37753a86c776dd9d89205b12b02901c9f6e9512f0fadde0ed9a899b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,493HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.6HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.64

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.23K
bid $565 · ask $662
Depth within 10bp
$4.75K
bid $2.56K · ask $2.19K
Depth within 50bp
$19.02K
bid $9.52K · ask $9.50K
Mid price
0.066285
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.298
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.169
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-layer/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0663195.10bp0.0663422FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.06646427.00bp0.06667714FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.06664454.13bp0.06709720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0662534.89bp0.0662392FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.06613921.97bp0.06584513FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.06575080.71bp0.06546020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-9.380e-6
-0.00094% / hr
Annualised APR
-8.223%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
44.4d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
44.4d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE8.223%44.4d1.22y
SHORTPAY-8.223%44.4d1.22y

/api/asset/hl-layer/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$4.64M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-layer/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.108 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.05M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.55M
real volume
Net delta
$497.40K
sellers net
Imbalance
-10.82%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
10.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-layer/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.24% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.066926→0.0660961.240%3
#22026-06-14 09:00:00Z2.0h0.066692→0.0660480.966%3
#32026-06-13 20:00:00Z0ms0.066703→0.0663050.597%1

/api/asset/hl-layer/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
85.75%
σ per bar = 0.000374
Mean return (annualised)
-925.70%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-10.79
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.63%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.07 over 904 bars

/api/asset/hl-layer/risk · same metrics, JSON