HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

0G

0G-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-0g · fresh · feed 1s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.16%

realized vol (ann.)

67.83%

max drawdown

1.47%

sharpe

-8.74

ulcer index

0.63%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.49%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.03%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

-934.81

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

1.37%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.98

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

-432.30

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.98

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

-3.16%

flow lean

—

carry

shorts_pay

-4.53%

signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%

24h change -3.16%
funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.5bps — long bias

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-0g/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH946ms⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

MARK · live

$0.292

24h Δ · live

-3.16%

24h vol · live

$0.3M

0G · live 24h price

25 closes · last $0.29

Funding direction · live

Σ = 0.0%

Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.994 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

Long fee

45.6%▬ +0.00pp

Short fee

54.4%▬ +0.00pp

1h funding -0.000517% · shorts pay

Hourly contract volume · live

peak 209560 contracts

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

946ms

$mark $

$0.2924

$mid $

$0.2924

◉prev-day close

$0.3019

Δ24h Δ %

-3.160%

$24h vol $

$301.50k

◐open interest $

$277.36k

%funding (1h)

-0.000517%

%funding (yr)

-4.53%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly

mark $0.2924 · 24h -3.16% · range $[0.2924, 0.3055]

OHLC candles · hourly

25 bars

Hourly volume (base units)

Σ vol 1084062 · peak 209560 · CV 1.18

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)

n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12

Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price: $0.2924
Mid price: $0.2924
24h change: -3.16%
Mark–mid spread: 1.20 bps
Prev-day close: $0.3019

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.15)

μ MEAN0.2984$95% CI: [0.2970$, 0.2999$]

σ STD DEV0.0036$σ² = 0.133×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.22%

med MEDIAN0.2996$Q₁ 0.2954$ · Q₃ 0.3010$

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0131$ · IQR 0.0056$ (1.349σ→0.0049$)

SKEWNESS · G₁-0.107approximately symmetric

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.154platykurtic · thin tails

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.88

range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.59

μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns

RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-16.59

μᵣ MEAN / h-0.133176%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.177

σᵣ STD / h0.751516%σ²ᵣ = 0.565×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.64×

σ ANNUALISED70.34%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.752%/h base

RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk

SHARPE (annualised)-16.59negative edge

-2-10+1+2+3+4

SORTINO (annualised)-14.30downside drag

-2-10+1+2+3+4

CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns

-20+2+4+6

RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic

SKEWNESS · G₁-0.21approximately symmetric

-3-10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.01leptokurtic · fat tails

-30+2+4+6

SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.86

CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00

EXPECTED EDGE-1166.63%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation

rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics

TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.25%

VaR₉₅ (h)1.247%5% prob of larger adverse h move

VaR₉₉ (h)1.785%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold

ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.611%expected loss given 5% tail event

MAX DRAWDOWN4.29%18h from peak to trough

TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity

MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 18h duration

PEAK30.55$

−4.29% drawdown over 18h

29.24$TROUGH

ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.29× (normal ≈ 1.25)

VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.43× (normal ≈ 1.41)

DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.48% (compounding)

VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14): 37.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B: 0.142 · within band
Bollinger upper: $0.3047
Bollinger MA: $0.2976
Bollinger lower: $0.2905

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.62 + ADF rejected

ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.621negative · reversal

ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.280lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT0.752strongly persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.598significant @ α=0.05

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.752

H = 0.752STRONGLY PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.60)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.62 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.60)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD): $301.50k
Open interest (USD): $277.36k
Vol / OI (turnover): 1.09x
1h funding: -0.000517%
Funding (annualised): -4.53%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²): -10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly: -5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly: -2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down

12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.66% · worst -1.93% · typical |Δ| 0.564%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 0.9679 (-3.21%) · max DD -4.33% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest -33.059 · range [-41.96, 18.90] · μ -21.360 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

-2.0839

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.0372

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 44.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.524e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]

NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%

μ per barmean

-0.000%

σ per barvol

0.03%

Empirical f★argmax g(f)

0.00×

from observed distribution

Parametric f★μ/σ²

-28.51×

Merton continuous-time

Half-Kelly½ f★

0.00×

~⅔ of full growth, half the variance

Quarter-Kelly¼ f★

0.00×

industry default — survives model error

g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★

Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage

Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -15.46400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns

Sharpe / barμ/σ

-0.007

annualized -15.46

μ per barafter L

-0.000%

σ per barafter L

0.00%

VaR 95%5%

0.00%

per-bar worst-case

CVaR 95%ES

0.01%

mean tail loss

Max DD (median)MDD

-0.0%

median25/75 band5/95 band

Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components

APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -20.73σ ann 73% · Sortino -17.06 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)

Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)

GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 11:25:09 UTC
Snapshot age: 946ms
History points: 25 hourly closes
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 11:25:10 UTC
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: 7edcb303179ce302b8b468cbc0860f4dc00ec0c2f9545717a83167c4afc5e277 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp

Depth within 1bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 5bp

$2.16K

bid $1.25K · ask $919

Depth within 10bp

$7.82K

bid $4.13K · ask $3.69K

Depth within 50bp

$16.71K

bid $8.30K · ask $8.41K

Mid price

0.292430

(best bid + best ask) / 2

Spread

4.1bp

(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid

Imbalance (whole book)

+0.045

bid-heavy

Imbalance (top-5)

+0.024

bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-0g/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

Side	Notional	Avg fill	Slippage	Worst fill	Levels	Status
BUY	$1.00K	0.292505	2.55bp	0.292600	3	FILLED
BUY	$10.00K	0.293167	25.20bp	0.294530	14	FILLED
BUY	$100.00K	0.295511	105.35bp	0.297400	20	PARTIAL
SELL	$1.00K	0.292363	2.29bp	0.292330	3	FILLED
SELL	$10.00K	0.291759	22.96bp	0.290590	13	FILLED
SELL	$100.00K	0.289289	107.43bp	0.286120	20	PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive

Hourly funding

-5.173e-6

-0.00052% / hr

Annualised APR

-4.535%

hourly · 24 · 365.25

Long: days to 1% carry

80.5d

longs receive

Short: days to 1% carry

80.5d

shorts pay

Side	Direction	Annualised carry	Days → 1%	Days → 10%
LONG	RECEIVE	4.535%	80.5d	2.21y
SHORT	PAY	-4.535%	80.5d	2.21y

/api/asset/hl-0g/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records

Price bin	Bars	Volume	Distribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★	25	$1.08M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-0g/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.296 · Hyperliquid candles

Bars (buy / sell)

12 / 12

1 unclassified

Buy weight

$646.81K

real volume

Sell weight

$351.36K

real volume

Net delta

$295.44K

buyers net

Imbalance

29.60%

(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)

Toxicity (VPIN)

29.6%

two-sided / balanced

Impact (|Δp|/vol)

—

needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-0g/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.92% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#	Window	Duration	Peak → Trough	Drawdown	Bars
#1	2026-06-13 17:00:00Z	2.0h	0.305460→0.299610	1.915%	3
#2	2026-06-14 04:00:00Z	4.0h	0.298180→0.293070	1.714%	5
#3	2026-06-14 00:00:00Z	2.0h	0.301740→0.296700	1.670%	3

/api/asset/hl-0g/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M

Realized vol (annualised)

72.71%

σ per bar = 0.000317

Mean return (annualised)

-1507.11%

μ per bar = -0.000003

Sharpe (rf=0)

-20.73

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

3.44%

peak 0.30 → trough 0.29 over 4518 bars

/api/asset/hl-0g/risk · same metrics, JSON