Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SNX

SNX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-snx · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.50%
realized vol (ann.)
34.89%
max drawdown
0.88%
sharpe
-12.29
ulcer index
0.40%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.30%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1069.89
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.84%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-508.45
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.50%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.50%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-snx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.239
24h Δ · live
-2.50%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
SNX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2410 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.2387, 0.2442] · R²=0.815▼ FALLING -2.17%σ LOW 0.62%LAST 0.23890.24420.24280.24150.24010.2387μ = 0.2410max 0.2442min 0.2387dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.81μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.24
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=774,330 · μ=30973.2 · σ=26711.8 · CV=0.86BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=9029,90759,81489,721119,628μ = 30973119,627.550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 119628 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.3s
$mark $
$0.2389
$mid $
$0.2389
◉prev-day close
$0.245
Δ24h Δ %
-2.502%
$24h vol $
$181.96k
◐open interest $
$730.11k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2410 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.2387, 0.2442] · R²=0.815▼ FALLING -2.17%σ LOW 0.62%LAST 0.23890.24420.24280.24150.24010.2387μ = 0.2410max 0.2442min 0.2387dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.81μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2389 · 24h -2.50% · range $[0.2387, 0.2442]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.2382, 0.2453] · σ=0.0015 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=33%BEARISH -1.95%CLOSE 0.2389 vs OPEN 0.2437 (-1.95%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.23890.24530.24360.24180.24000.2382μ close = 0.2410O0.244 H0.245 L0.244 C0.244 (+0.22%)O0.244 H0.245 L0.244 C0.244 (+0.22%)O0.244 H0.245 L0.244 C0.244 (-0.11%)O0.244 H0.245 L0.244 C0.244 (-0.11%)O0.244 H0.244 L0.242 C0.242 (-0.59%)O0.244 H0.244 L0.242 C0.242 (-0.59%)O0.243 H0.243 L0.242 C0.243 (+0.27%)O0.243 H0.243 L0.242 C0.243 (+0.27%)O0.243 H0.244 L0.242 C0.243 (-0.20%)O0.243 H0.244 L0.242 C0.243 (-0.20%)O0.243 H0.243 L0.240 C0.241 (-0.59%)O0.243 H0.243 L0.240 C0.241 (-0.59%)O0.241 H0.243 L0.241 C0.241 (-0.09%)O0.241 H0.243 L0.241 C0.241 (-0.09%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.241 C0.241 (-0.12%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.241 C0.241 (-0.12%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.240 C0.241 (+0.15%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.240 C0.241 (+0.15%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.241 C0.242 (+0.27%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.241 C0.242 (+0.27%)O0.242 H0.243 L0.241 C0.242 (-0.16%)O0.242 H0.243 L0.241 C0.242 (-0.16%)O0.242 H0.242 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.68%)O0.242 H0.242 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.68%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.240 C0.240 (+0.02%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.240 C0.240 (+0.02%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.10%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.10%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.240 C0.241 (+0.23%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.240 C0.241 (+0.23%)O0.241 H0.241 L0.240 C0.241 (-0.04%)O0.241 H0.241 L0.240 C0.241 (-0.04%)O0.241 H0.241 L0.240 C0.241 (+0.02%)O0.241 H0.241 L0.240 C0.241 (+0.02%)O0.241 H0.241 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.32%)O0.241 H0.241 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.32%)O0.240 H0.240 L0.238 C0.240 (-0.00%)O0.240 H0.240 L0.238 C0.240 (-0.00%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.239 C0.239 (-0.47%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.239 C0.239 (-0.47%)O0.239 H0.240 L0.238 C0.239 (+0.05%)O0.239 H0.240 L0.238 C0.239 (+0.05%)O0.239 H0.240 L0.239 C0.239 (-0.01%)O0.239 H0.240 L0.239 C0.239 (-0.01%)O0.239 H0.241 L0.238 C0.241 (+0.56%)O0.239 H0.241 L0.238 C0.241 (+0.56%)-0.8%O0.241 H0.241 L0.239 C0.239 (-0.83%)O0.241 H0.241 L0.239 C0.239 (-0.83%)O0.239 H0.239 L0.239 C0.239 (+0.01%)O0.239 H0.239 L0.239 C0.239 (+0.01%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=774,330 · μ=30973.2 · σ=26711.8 · CV=0.86BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=9029,90759,81489,721119,628μ = 3097323,715.1 · 19.8% peak23,715.1 · 19.8% peak18,861.2 · 15.8% peak18,861.2 · 15.8% peak25,655.3 · 21.4% peak25,655.3 · 21.4% peak27,011.3 · 22.6% peak27,011.3 · 22.6% peak19,364.5 · 16.2% peak19,364.5 · 16.2% peak119,627.5119,627.5 · 100.0% peak119,627.5 · 100.0% peak60,563.9 · 50.6% peak60,563.9 · 50.6% peak71,788.4 · 60.0% peak71,788.4 · 60.0% peak27,880.1 · 23.3% peak27,880.1 · 23.3% peak11,064.8 · 9.2% peak11,064.8 · 9.2% peak22,418.7 · 18.7% peak22,418.7 · 18.7% peak10,694.4 · 8.9% peak10,694.4 · 8.9% peak38,263.1 · 32.0% peak38,263.1 · 32.0% peak79,951.2 · 66.8% peak79,951.2 · 66.8% peak43,988.9 · 36.8% peak43,988.9 · 36.8% peak43,110.6 · 36.0% peak43,110.6 · 36.0% peak19,398.2 · 16.2% peak19,398.2 · 16.2% peak16,866.7 · 14.1% peak16,866.7 · 14.1% peak12,218.6 · 10.2% peak12,218.6 · 10.2% peak11,157.2 · 9.3% peak11,157.2 · 9.3% peak15,287.6 · 12.8% peak15,287.6 · 12.8% peak25,110.5 · 21.0% peak25,110.5 · 21.0% peak11,193.2 · 9.4% peak11,193.2 · 9.4% peak12,813.6 · 10.7% peak12,813.6 · 10.7% peak6,325.7 · 5.3% peak6,325.7 · 5.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 774330 · peak 119628 · CV 0.86

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0032 · skew=-0.47 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.15 (mesokurtic)65320 1-76.91bpbin -76.91bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -76.91bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-64.72bpbin -64.72bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -64.72bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-52.52bpbin -52.52bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -52.52bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-40.32bpbin -40.32bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -40.32bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-28.13bpbin -28.13bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -28.13bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-15.93bpbin -15.93bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -15.93bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 6-3.74bpbin -3.74bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -3.74bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 68.46bpbin 8.46bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 8.46bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 120.66bpbin 20.66bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 20.66bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 232.85bpbin 32.85bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 32.85bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak45.05bp 157.24bpbin 57.24bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 57.24bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.37 · kurt=0.22 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2389
Mid price
$0.2389
24h change
-2.50%
Mark–mid spread
0.84 bps
Prev-day close
$0.245

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.2410$95% CI: [0.2404$, 0.2416$]
σ STD DEV0.0015$σ² = 0.023×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.62%
med MEDIAN0.2407$Q₁ 0.2402$ · Q₃ 0.2416$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0055$ · IQR 0.0014$ (1.349σ→0.0020$)
min 0.2387$Q₁ 0.2402$med 0.2407$Q₃ 0.2416$max 0.2442$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.493approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.558mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.17
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.42
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.63
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-25.94
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.091249%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.277
σᵣ STD / h0.329241%σ²ᵣ = 0.108×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.61×
σ ANNUALISED30.82%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.329%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-25.94negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-22.23downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.39approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.57mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.86
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-799.34%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.63%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.634%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.786%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.733%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.24%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.634%VaR₉₉−0.786%ES₉₅−0.733%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK24.42$
−2.24% drawdown over 23h
23.87$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.24× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.29% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
32.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.116 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2423
Bollinger MA
$0.2404
Bollinger lower
$0.2385

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.337within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.037lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.881strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.057significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.881
H = 0.881STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.337k=2-0.037k=3-0.162k=4+0.045k=5-0.1050+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.06)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.06)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$181.96k
Open interest (USD)
$730.11k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.25x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.63% · worst -0.83% · typical |Δ| 0.24%MILD BEARISH -2.19%BEST+0.63%09hWORST-0.83%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.24%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.19%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.52%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.68%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.99%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.19%+0.00%-2.27%-0.08% · 12h-0.08% · 12h-0.08%12h-0.62% · 13h-0.62% · 13h-0.62%13h0.28% · 14h0.28% · 14h0.28%14h-0.16% · 15h-0.16% · 15h-0.16%15h-0.64% · 16h-0.64% · 16h-0.64%16h-0.01% · 17h-0.01% · 17h-0.01%17h-0.04% · 18h-0.04% · 18h-0.04%18h0.11% · 19h0.11% · 19h0.11%19h0.28% · 20h0.28% · 20h0.28%20h-0.19% · 21h-0.19% · 21h-0.19%21h-0.46% · 22h-0.46% · 22h-0.46%22h-0.05% · 23h-0.05% · 23h-0.05%23h-0.09% · 00h-0.09% · 00h-0.09%00h0.21% · 01h0.21% · 01h0.21%01h-0.05% · 02h-0.05% · 02h-0.05%02h0.06% · 03h0.06% · 03h0.06%03h-0.25% · 04h-0.25% · 04h-0.25%04h0.03% · 05h0.03% · 05h0.03%05h-0.48% · 06h-0.48% · 06h-0.48%06h0.04% · 07h0.04% · 07h0.04%07h0.03% · 08h0.03% · 08h0.03%08h0.63% · 09h0.63% · 09h0.63%09h★ BEST-0.83% · 10h-0.83% · 10h-0.83%10h▼ WORST0.08% · 11h0.08% · 11h0.08%11hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.63% · worst -0.83% · typical |Δ| 0.237%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.18%)FINAL-2.18%MAX DD-2.25%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9782 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9775, 1.0000]1.00000.9775break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.25% · moderate0%-2.25%▼ TROUGH -2.25%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.25%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.25%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9782 (-2.18%) · max DD -2.25% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-26.31 · σ=14.46UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -16.47 (+0.68σ vs μ)53.1226.560.00-26.56-53.12μ = -26.31-53.12-53.12-50.93-50.93-22.68-22.68-22.59-22.59-24.12-24.12-18.99-18.99-21.34-21.34-24.15-24.15-17.20-17.20-44.59-44.59-25.83-25.83-15.82-15.82-8.07-8.07-29.86-29.86-46.25-46.25-40.03-40.030.170.17-17.99-17.99-16.47-16.47v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -16.466 · range [-53.12, 0.17] · μ -26.307 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=27.1579 · σ=9.2281 · range [14.2082, 47.3752] · R²=0.014▲ RISING +40.39%σ EXTREME 33.98%LAST 47.375247.375239.083530.791722.499914.2082μ = 27.1579max 47.3752min 14.2082dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 47.38% · range [14.21%, 47.38%] · μ 27.16% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.164 · σ=0.286MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.477 (-1.09σ vs μ)0.5970.2980.000-0.298-0.597μ = -0.164-0.516-0.516-0.384-0.384-0.024-0.0240.1750.175-0.002-0.0020.2060.2060.1970.1970.1830.1830.0000.0000.1490.149-0.030-0.030-0.338-0.338-0.457-0.457-0.233-0.233-0.597-0.597-0.517-0.517-0.035-0.035-0.419-0.419-0.477-0.477v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.477 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.9339
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6269
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.3161
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5064
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9776
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3059
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8680
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0049
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7102
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0872
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.480 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.14e-5 · top T=3.00h (21.8%) · top-3 cover 55.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.0e-52.2e-51.5e-57.5e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.05e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.05e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.76e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.76e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.97e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.97e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.85e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.85e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.38e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.38e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.90e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.90e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.55e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.55e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.99e-5 · 21.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.99e-5 · 21.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.14e-5 · 15.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.14e-5 · 15.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.67e-6 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.67e-6 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.10e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.10e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.51e-5 · 18.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.51e-5 · 18.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 21.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.372e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-68.68×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -27.22400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.012
annualized -27.22
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -986% · APY -100% · Sharpe -26.02σ ann 38% · Sortino -16.42 · n 4999
-3123%-2489%-1855%-1222%-588%45%-985.9%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)37.9%Ann. vol σ-2602.2%Sharpe (ann)-1642.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.2290.2330.2380.2420.2470.251t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:03 UTC
Snapshot age
3.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:06 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0a9d47b4f88784769390729671a8d3033dcb5b4aaeb53436a71b7aaddf8b2f7b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$942
bid $642 · ask $300
Depth within 10bp
$7.04K
bid $4.07K · ask $2.97K
Depth within 50bp
$92.24K
bid $31.38K · ask $60.86K
Mid price
0.238925
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.317
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.188
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-snx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2390434.94bp0.2390702FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.23927114.48bp0.23958012FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.23968431.78bp0.23993020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2388313.93bp0.2387704FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.23860813.26bp0.23825013FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.23824228.58bp0.23782020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-snx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$774.33K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-snx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.468 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$199.48K
real volume
Sell weight
$551.14K
real volume
Net delta
$351.66K
sellers net
Imbalance
-46.85%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
46.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-snx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 0.84% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.243180→0.2411300.843%3
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h0.240730→0.2387400.827%2
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.242080→0.2401800.785%3

/api/asset/hl-snx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
37.89%
σ per bar = 0.000165
Mean return (annualised)
-985.95%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-26.02
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.32%
peak 0.24 → trough 0.24 over 1223 bars

/api/asset/hl-snx/risk · same metrics, JSON