Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

CC

CC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-cc · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.96%
realized vol (ann.)
30.70%
max drawdown
0.79%
sharpe
-38.70
ulcer index
0.44%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.38%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2706.66
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.73%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1623.71
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.96%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
1.50%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.96%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 12.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-cc/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.159
24h Δ · live
-1.96%
24h vol · live
$0.5M
CC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1612 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.1590, 0.1635] · R²=0.304▼ FALLING -2.76%σ LOW 0.88%LAST 0.15900.16350.16240.16120.16010.1590μ = 0.1612max 0.1635min 0.1590dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.30μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.16
Funding direction · live
Long fee 38.7%Short fee 61.3%SHORT FEE61.3%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.963 / 1.00 bits (96%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
38.7%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
61.3%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000171% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,323,646 · μ=132945.8 · σ=138240.3 · CV=1.04BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=180125,205250,409375,614500,818μ = 132946500,81850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 500818 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.3s
$mark $
$0.1589
$mid $
$0.159
◉prev-day close
$0.1621
Δ24h Δ %
-1.955%
$24h vol $
$502.21k
◐open interest $
$5.58M
%funding (1h)
0.000171%
%funding (yr)
+1.50%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1612 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.1590, 0.1635] · R²=0.304▼ FALLING -2.76%σ LOW 0.88%LAST 0.15900.16350.16240.16120.16010.1590μ = 0.1612max 0.1635min 0.1590dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.30μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1589 · 24h -1.96% · range $[0.1590, 0.1635]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.1589, 0.1641] · σ=0.0014 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=41%BEARISH -2.06%CLOSE 0.1590 vs OPEN 0.1623 (-2.06%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.15900.16410.16280.16150.16020.1589μ close = 0.1612O0.162 H0.164 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.71%)O0.162 H0.164 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.71%)O0.164 H0.164 L0.163 C0.163 (-0.29%)O0.164 H0.164 L0.163 C0.163 (-0.29%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.162 (-0.36%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.162 (-0.36%)-1.5%O0.162 H0.162 L0.159 C0.160 (-1.47%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.159 C0.160 (-1.47%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (+0.26%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (+0.26%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.19%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.19%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.69%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.69%)O0.161 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.71%)O0.161 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.71%)O0.162 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.25%)O0.162 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.25%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.02%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.02%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.163 C0.163 (+0.01%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.163 C0.163 (+0.01%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.163 C0.163 (-0.07%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.163 C0.163 (-0.07%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.09%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.09%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (-0.98%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (-0.98%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.00%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.00%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.37%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.37%)O0.161 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.17%)O0.161 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.17%)O0.161 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.27%)O0.161 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.27%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.12%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.12%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.32%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.32%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (+0.22%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (+0.22%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.159 (-0.42%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.159 (-0.42%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.159 C0.159 (-0.07%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.159 C0.159 (-0.07%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,323,646 · μ=132945.8 · σ=138240.3 · CV=1.04BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=180125,205250,409375,614500,818μ = 132946259,052 · 51.7% peak259,052 · 51.7% peak51,773 · 10.3% peak51,773 · 10.3% peak148,018 · 29.6% peak148,018 · 29.6% peak140,480 · 28.1% peak140,480 · 28.1% peak256,514 · 51.2% peak256,514 · 51.2% peak55,147 · 11.0% peak55,147 · 11.0% peak28,919 · 5.8% peak28,919 · 5.8% peak102,645 · 20.5% peak102,645 · 20.5% peak75,630 · 15.1% peak75,630 · 15.1% peak56,737 · 11.3% peak56,737 · 11.3% peak43,330 · 8.7% peak43,330 · 8.7% peak7,632 · 1.5% peak7,632 · 1.5% peak13,150 · 2.6% peak13,150 · 2.6% peak143,958 · 28.7% peak143,958 · 28.7% peak78,132 · 15.6% peak78,132 · 15.6% peak52,859 · 10.6% peak52,859 · 10.6% peak118,904 · 23.7% peak118,904 · 23.7% peak66,112 · 13.2% peak66,112 · 13.2% peak65,108 · 13.0% peak65,108 · 13.0% peak16,587 · 3.3% peak16,587 · 3.3% peak76,849 · 15.3% peak76,849 · 15.3% peak383,273 · 76.5% peak383,273 · 76.5% peak480,983 · 96.0% peak480,983 · 96.0% peak500,818500,818 · 100.0% peak500,818 · 100.0% peak101,036 · 20.2% peak101,036 · 20.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3323646 · peak 500818 · CV 1.04

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0043 · skew=-0.73 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.57 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 1-139.56bpbin -139.56bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -139.56bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-120.98bp-102.41bp 1-83.83bpbin -83.83bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -83.83bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-65.25bp 2-46.67bpbin -46.67bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -46.67bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 6-28.10bpbin -28.10bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -28.10bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 6-9.52bpbin -9.52bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -9.52bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 29.06bpbin 9.06bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 9.06bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 427.63bpbin 27.63bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 27.63bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak46.21bp 264.79bpbin 64.79bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 64.79bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 8 · negative 16
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.78 · kurt=1.85 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1589
Mid price
$0.159
24h change
-1.96%
Mark–mid spread
0.63 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1621

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.50)
μ MEAN0.1612$95% CI: [0.1607$, 0.1618$]
σ STD DEV0.0014$σ² = 0.020×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.88%
med MEDIAN0.1609$Q₁ 0.1600$ · Q₃ 0.1627$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0045$ · IQR 0.0026$ (1.349σ→0.0019$)
min 0.1590$Q₁ 0.1600$med 0.1609$Q₃ 0.1627$max 0.1635$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.127approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.504platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.21
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.73
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.19
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-23.46
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.116563%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.251
σᵣ STD / h0.465011%σ²ᵣ = 0.216×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.99×
σ ANNUALISED43.52%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.465%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-23.46negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-21.91downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.83left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.60leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.93
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1021.09%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.83%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.835%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.352%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.191%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.76%24h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.835%VaR₉₉−1.352%ES₉₅−1.191%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 24h duration
PEAK16.35$
−2.76% drawdown over 24h
15.90$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.43× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.62× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.84% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
30.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.106 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1638
Bollinger MA
$0.1611
Bollinger lower
$0.1584

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.157within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.126lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.037strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.166significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.037
H = 1.037STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.157k=2+0.126k=3+0.202k=4-0.255k=5-0.2650+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.17)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.17)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$502.21k
Open interest (USD)
$5.58M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.09x
1h funding
0.000171%
Funding (annualised)
+1.50%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.74% · worst -1.49% · typical |Δ| 0.34%BEARISH SESSION -2.80%BEST+0.74%18hWORST-1.49%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.34%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.80%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.83%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.35% · Σ -2.82%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.23% · Σ +1.85%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.80%+0.00%-2.80%-0.28% · 12h-0.28% · 12h-0.28%12h-0.36% · 13h-0.36% · 13h-0.36%13h-1.49% · 14h-1.49% · 14h-1.49%14h▼ WORST-0.08% · 15h-0.08% · 15h-0.08%15h0.34% · 16h0.34% · 16h0.34%16h-0.26% · 17h-0.26% · 17h-0.26%17h0.74% · 18h0.74% · 18h0.74%18h★ BEST0.69% · 19h0.69% · 19h0.69%19h0.19% · 20h0.19% · 20h0.19%20h0.30% · 21h0.30% · 21h0.30%21h-0.07% · 22h-0.07% · 22h-0.07%22h-0.07% · 23h-0.07% · 23h-0.07%23h0.05% · 00h0.05% · 00h0.05%00h-0.89% · 01h-0.89% · 01h-0.89%01h-0.01% · 02h-0.01% · 02h-0.01%02h-0.37% · 03h-0.37% · 03h-0.37%03h-0.16% · 04h-0.16% · 04h-0.16%04h-0.22% · 05h-0.22% · 05h-0.22%05h0.14% · 06h0.14% · 06h0.14%06h-0.37% · 07h-0.37% · 07h-0.37%07h-0.22% · 08h-0.22% · 08h-0.22%08h0.22% · 09h0.22% · 09h0.22%09h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h-0.12% · 11h-0.12% · 11h-0.12%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.85%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 5BREADTH33% up · 67% down
8 up bars · 16 down · best 0.74% · worst -1.49% · typical |Δ| 0.339%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.78%)FINAL-2.78%MAX DD-2.78%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9722 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9722, 1.0000]1.00000.9722break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.78% · moderate0%-2.78%▼ TROUGH -2.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.78%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.78%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9722 (-2.78%) · max DD -2.78% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-18.75 · σ=58.69UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -47.45 (-0.49σ vs μ)99.9149.960.00-49.96-99.91μ = -18.75-54.15-54.15-22.67-22.67-1.04-1.0462.9962.9985.4485.4461.6161.6177.5777.5758.3458.34-18.42-18.42-26.83-26.83-59.67-59.67-64.24-64.24-72.51-72.51-65.14-65.14-75.98-75.98-99.91-99.91-41.43-41.43-52.68-52.68-47.45-47.45v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -47.453 · range [-99.91, 85.44] · μ -18.746 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=36.6159 · σ=15.9381 · range [17.4729, 77.4827] · R²=0.587▼ FALLING -53.82%σ EXTREME 43.53%LAST 26.401677.482762.480247.477832.475317.4729μ = 36.6159max 77.4827min 17.4729dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.59μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 26.40% · range [17.47%, 77.48%] · μ 36.62% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.233 · σ=0.294MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.535 (-1.03σ vs μ)0.6700.3350.000-0.335-0.670μ = -0.233-0.026-0.0260.0120.0120.0920.092-0.188-0.188-0.226-0.226-0.119-0.1190.4200.4200.1770.1770.0030.003-0.228-0.228-0.466-0.466-0.542-0.542-0.670-0.670-0.279-0.279-0.558-0.558-0.401-0.401-0.349-0.349-0.549-0.549-0.535-0.535v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.535 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
9.5247
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0085
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.6736
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2451
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3266
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6152
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3149
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7529
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3835
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0843
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.2777
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2014
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.389 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.07e-5 · top T=12.00h (29.0%) · top-3 cover 54.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.2e-55.4e-53.6e-51.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.20e-5 · 12.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.20e-5 · 12.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.21e-5 · 29.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.21e-5 · 29.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.34e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.34e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.34e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.34e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.36e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.36e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.60e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.60e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.20e-5 · 12.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.20e-5 · 12.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.83e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.83e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.89e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.89e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.19e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.19e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.26e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.26e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.27e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.27e-7 · 0.1% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=12.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 29.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.488e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-182.81×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -53.28400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.023
annualized -53.28
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -55.75σ ann 30% · Sortino -33.13 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-6691%-5345%-4000%-2654%-1309%37%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)30.5%Ann. vol σ-5575.4%Sharpe (ann)-3313.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1530.1560.1590.1620.1650.168t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:08 UTC
Snapshot age
2.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:12 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
72ccc6b9b5c1889d4c42e7ef0149012036911b1518460adca28c218fb2422f66 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,503HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.69

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$1.52K
bid $942 · ask $577
Depth within 5bp
$14.24K
bid $11.47K · ask $2.76K
Depth within 10bp
$23.57K
bid $18.88K · ask $4.69K
Depth within 50bp
$38.47K
bid $25.07K · ask $13.41K
Mid price
0.158940
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.174
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.265
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cc/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1589581.16bp0.1589702FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.15915513.54bp0.15933011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.15944631.85bp0.16015020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1589290.70bp0.1589102FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1588843.50bp0.1588706FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1587978.97bp0.15847020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.711e-6
0.00017% / hr
Annualised APR
1.500%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
243.5d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
243.5d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-1.500%243.5d6.67y
SHORTRECEIVE1.500%243.5d6.67y

/api/asset/hl-cc/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.32M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cc/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.364 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 16
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$975.02K
real volume
Sell weight
$2.09M
real volume
Net delta
$1.11M
sellers net
Imbalance
-36.37%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
36.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-cc/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.18% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 13:00:00Z3.0h0.163480→0.1599202.178%4
#22026-06-14 01:00:00Z4.0h0.163030→0.1603401.650%5
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h0.159960→0.1589700.619%2

/api/asset/hl-cc/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
30.50%
σ per bar = 0.000133
Mean return (annualised)
-1700.39%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-55.75
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.69%
peak 0.16 → trough 0.16 over 4933 bars

/api/asset/hl-cc/risk · same metrics, JSON