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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

W

W-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-w · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.42%
realized vol (ann.)
128.21%
max drawdown
1.52%
sharpe
6.35
ulcer index
0.72%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.59%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1136.42
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.37%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
593.19
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
4.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.42%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
2.76%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -1.42%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 20.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-w/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.010
24h Δ · live
-1.42%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
W · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0097 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0096, 0.0098] · R²=0.141▼ FALLING -0.21%σ LOW 0.63%LAST 0.00970.00980.00980.00970.00970.0096μ = 0.0097max 0.0098min 0.0096dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 43.1%Short fee 56.9%SHORT FEE56.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.986 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
43.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
56.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000315% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=32,632,958 · μ=1305318.3 · σ=1740776.6 · CV=1.33BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1701,625,7873,251,5754,877,3626,503,149μ = 13053186,503,149.450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 6503149 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.2s
$mark $
$0.0097
$mid $
$0.0097
◉prev-day close
$0.0098
Δ24h Δ %
-1.423%
$24h vol $
$269.27k
◐open interest $
$841.04k
%funding (1h)
0.000315%
%funding (yr)
+2.76%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0097 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0096, 0.0098] · R²=0.141▼ FALLING -0.21%σ LOW 0.63%LAST 0.00970.00980.00980.00970.00970.0096μ = 0.0097max 0.0098min 0.0096dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0097 · 24h -1.42% · range $[0.0096, 0.0098]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0096, 0.0101] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=40%BEARISH -0.61%CLOSE 0.0097 vs OPEN 0.0098 (-0.61%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00970.01010.01000.00980.00970.0096μ close = 0.0097O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.41%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.41%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.31%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.31%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.21%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.21%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.51%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.51%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.62%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.62%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.31%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.31%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.31%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.31%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.51%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.51%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.41%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.41%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.61%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.61%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.51%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.51%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.31%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.31%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.41%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.41%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.51%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.51%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.41%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.41%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.72%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.72%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.41%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.41%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)1.3%O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+1.34%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+1.34%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.82%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.82%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.21%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.21%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=32,632,958 · μ=1305318.3 · σ=1740776.6 · CV=1.33BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1701,625,7873,251,5754,877,3626,503,149μ = 13053186,095,424.7 · 93.7% peak6,095,424.7 · 93.7% peak930,575.3 · 14.3% peak930,575.3 · 14.3% peak726,621.8 · 11.2% peak726,621.8 · 11.2% peak426,411 · 6.6% peak426,411 · 6.6% peak218,206.6 · 3.4% peak218,206.6 · 3.4% peak2,421,316 · 37.2% peak2,421,316 · 37.2% peak1,026,441 · 15.8% peak1,026,441 · 15.8% peak437,362 · 6.7% peak437,362 · 6.7% peak895,231.3 · 13.8% peak895,231.3 · 13.8% peak531,051.6 · 8.2% peak531,051.6 · 8.2% peak615,256.6 · 9.5% peak615,256.6 · 9.5% peak75,542 · 1.2% peak75,542 · 1.2% peak393,768.2 · 6.1% peak393,768.2 · 6.1% peak316,272.4 · 4.9% peak316,272.4 · 4.9% peak488,170 · 7.5% peak488,170 · 7.5% peak26,846.8 · 0.4% peak26,846.8 · 0.4% peak6,503,149.46,503,149.4 · 100.0% peak6,503,149.4 · 100.0% peak552,988.5 · 8.5% peak552,988.5 · 8.5% peak518,166.6 · 8.0% peak518,166.6 · 8.0% peak2,268,188.9 · 34.9% peak2,268,188.9 · 34.9% peak661,473.2 · 10.2% peak661,473.2 · 10.2% peak44,704.4 · 0.7% peak44,704.4 · 0.7% peak3,945,760 · 60.7% peak3,945,760 · 60.7% peak871,035.5 · 13.4% peak871,035.5 · 13.4% peak1,642,994 · 25.3% peak1,642,994 · 25.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 32632958 · peak 6503149 · CV 1.33

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0054 · skew=0.51 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.45 (mesokurtic)54310 2-82.77bpbin -82.77bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -82.77bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-63.97bpbin -63.97bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -63.97bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-45.17bpbin -45.17bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -45.17bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-26.38bpbin -26.38bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -26.38bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-7.58bpbin -7.58bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -7.58bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 311.22bpbin 11.22bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 11.22bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak30.02bp 148.81bpbin 48.81bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 48.81bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 367.61bpbin 67.61bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 67.61bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 186.41bpbin 86.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 86.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak105.21bp 1124.00bpbin 124.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 124.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.49 · kurt=-0.13 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0097
Mid price
$0.0097
24h change
-1.42%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0098

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.05)
μ MEAN0.0097$95% CI: [0.0097$, 0.0098$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.63%
med MEDIAN0.0097$Q₁ 0.0097$ · Q₃ 0.0098$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0002$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0096$Q₁ 0.0097$med 0.0097$Q₃ 0.0098$max 0.0098$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.329approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.055platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.15
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.93
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.40
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-1.45
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.008573%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.016
σᵣ STD / h0.552885%σ²ᵣ = 0.306×10⁻⁴ · CV = 64.49×
σ ANNUALISED51.75%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.553%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-1.45negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-1.59downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-35.16drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.52right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.14mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.09
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -35.16
EXPECTED EDGE-75.10%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.80%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.796%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.900%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.874%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.14%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.796%VaR₉₉−0.900%ES₉₅−0.874%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK0.98$
−2.14% drawdown over 9h
0.96$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.18% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
49.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.384 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0099
Bollinger MA
$0.0097
Bollinger lower
$0.0096

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.38 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.376within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.372lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.973strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.942fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.973
H = 0.973STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=3
k=1-0.376k=2+0.372k=3 ★-0.436k=4+0.255k=5-0.3940+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.94)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.38 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.94)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$269.27k
Open interest (USD)
$841.04k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.32x
1h funding
0.000315%
Funding (annualised)
+2.76%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-2.805× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-1.402× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.701×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.33% · worst -0.92% · typical |Δ| 0.42%MILD BEARISH -0.21%BEST+1.33%09hWORST-0.92%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.42%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.21%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.44%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.13%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.21%+1.02%-1.14%-0.31% · 12h-0.31% · 12h-0.31%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.72% · 14h0.72% · 14h0.72%14h0.41% · 15h0.41% · 15h0.41%15h-0.20% · 16h-0.20% · 16h-0.20%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.41% · 18h-0.41% · 18h-0.41%18h0.61% · 19h0.61% · 19h0.61%19h-0.61% · 20h-0.61% · 20h-0.61%20h0.82% · 21h0.82% · 21h0.82%21h-0.20% · 22h-0.20% · 22h-0.20%22h0.10% · 23h0.10% · 23h0.10%23h-0.61% · 00h-0.61% · 00h-0.61%00h0.20% · 01h0.20% · 01h0.20%01h-0.62% · 02h-0.62% · 02h-0.62%02h-0.10% · 03h-0.10% · 03h-0.10%03h-0.83% · 04h-0.83% · 04h-0.83%04h0.10% · 05h0.10% · 05h0.10%05h-0.21% · 06h-0.21% · 06h-0.21%06h0.62% · 07h0.62% · 07h0.62%07h0.00% · 08h0.00% · 08h·08h1.33% · 09h1.33% · 09h1.33%09h★ BEST-0.92% · 10h-0.92% · 10h-0.92%10h▼ WORST-0.10% · 11h-0.10% · 11h-0.10%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.13%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 50% down · 13% flat
9 up bars · 12 down · best 1.33% · worst -0.92% · typical |Δ| 0.419%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.24%)FINAL-0.24%MAX DD-2.14%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.02%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9976 · peak 1.0102 · range [0.9885, 1.0102]1.01020.9885break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0102UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.14% · moderate0%-2.14%▼ TROUGH -2.14%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.14%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.62%bar 6-10 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.31%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.14%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9976 (-0.24%) · max DD -2.14% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-8.08 · σ=32.32MIXED EDGELAST 14.61 (+0.70σ vs μ)66.9833.490.00-33.49-66.98μ = -8.0824.6324.6319.4619.4638.2438.24-6.75-6.755.585.585.595.598.378.372.632.63-8.73-8.73-8.78-8.78-54.98-54.98-66.98-66.98-66.86-66.86-55.60-55.60-30.99-30.99-13.67-13.6721.6321.6318.9718.9714.6114.61v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 14.614 · range [-66.98, 38.24] · μ -8.085 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=49.3983 · σ=11.7182 · range [32.6171, 72.2828] · R²=0.248▲ RISING +98.35%σ EXTREME 23.72%LAST 72.282872.282862.366452.450042.533532.6171μ = 49.3983max 72.2828min 32.6171dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 72.28% · range [32.62%, 72.28%] · μ 49.40% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.455 · σ=0.320MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.470 (-0.05σ vs μ)0.8310.4160.000-0.416-0.831μ = -0.4550.1390.1390.1460.146-0.036-0.036-0.635-0.635-0.688-0.688-0.808-0.808-0.831-0.831-0.612-0.612-0.583-0.583-0.353-0.353-0.826-0.826-0.654-0.654-0.749-0.749-0.596-0.596-0.220-0.220-0.160-0.160-0.130-0.130-0.573-0.573-0.470-0.470v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.470 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.1023
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5763
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
20.5256
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0011
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1912
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2162
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.6997
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0892
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3016
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1794
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8243
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4098
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.749 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.10e-5 · top T=2.00h (57.0%) · top-3 cover 74.2%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.8e-42.1e-41.4e-47.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.51e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.51e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.47e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.47e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.74e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.74e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.27e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.27e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.81e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.81e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.11e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.11e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.43e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.43e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.98e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.98e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.19e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.19e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.22e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.22e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.81e-4 · 57.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.81e-4 · 57.0% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 57.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.918e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -1.04× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-1.04×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×0.7×1.4×2.2×2.9×3.6×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 0.41400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.000
annualized 0.41
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -217% · APY -96% · Sharpe -1.50σ ann 144% · Sortino -0.61 · n 4999
-260%-173%-87%-0%87%173%-216.7%APR (simple)-96.0%APY (compound)144.4%Ann. vol σ-150.0%Sharpe (ann)-61.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0090.0090.0100.0100.0100.010t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:21 UTC
Snapshot age
2.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:23 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
8f1779db76dba648035670893081b9edca2851f3a215897a1e9678c72557183d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,504HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.72

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$33.61K
bid $14.68K · ask $18.93K
Mid price
0.009700
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
20.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.104
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.117
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-w/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00971111.81bp0.0097202FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00972020.99bp0.0097303FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.009964272.28bp0.01038020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00969010.31bp0.0096901FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00968515.75bp0.0096802FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.009536168.71bp0.00931020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+3.146e-6
0.00031% / hr
Annualised APR
2.758%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
132.5d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
132.5d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-2.758%132.5d3.63y
SHORTRECEIVE2.758%132.5d3.63y

/api/asset/hl-w/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$32.63M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-w/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.381 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$8.21M
real volume
Sell weight
$18.33M
real volume
Net delta
$10.12M
sellers net
Imbalance
-38.15%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
38.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-w/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.04% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 02:00:00Z4.0h0.009820→0.0096202.037%5
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h0.009810→0.0097101.019%2
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms0.009830→0.0097600.712%1

/api/asset/hl-w/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
144.44%
σ per bar = 0.000630
Mean return (annualised)
-216.67%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-1.50
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.69%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 1189 bars

/api/asset/hl-w/risk · same metrics, JSON