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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BIGTIME

BIGTIME-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-bigtime · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.16%
realized vol (ann.)
57.36%
max drawdown
1.34%
sharpe
-22.52
ulcer index
0.59%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.46%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2204.98
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.19%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.96
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1088.17
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.96
upside/downside
roll spread
0.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.16%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-34.78%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 20.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-bigtime/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.009
24h Δ · live
0.16%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
BIGTIME · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0089 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0088, 0.0090] · R²=0.336▲ RISING +0.53%σ LOW 0.75%LAST 0.00890.00900.00900.00890.00890.0088μ = 0.0089max 0.0090min 0.0088dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.4%Short fee 50.6%SHORT FEE50.6%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.4%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.6%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.003971% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=11,685,231 · μ=467409.2 · σ=527196.8 · CV=1.13BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130669,1381,338,2762,007,4142,676,552μ = 4674092,676,55250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2676552 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.7s
$mark $
$0.0089
$mid $
$0.0089
◉prev-day close
$0.0089
Δ24h Δ %
+0.157%
$24h vol $
$103.53k
◐open interest $
$216.42k
%funding (1h)
-0.003971%
%funding (yr)
-34.78%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0089 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0088, 0.0090] · R²=0.336▲ RISING +0.53%σ LOW 0.75%LAST 0.00890.00900.00900.00890.00890.0088μ = 0.0089max 0.0090min 0.0088dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0089 · 24h 0.16% · range $[0.0088, 0.0090]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0088, 0.0091] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=50%BULLISH +1.34%CLOSE 0.0089 vs OPEN 0.0088 (+1.34%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00890.00910.00900.00900.00890.0088μ close = 0.0089O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.81%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.81%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.11%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.11%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.24%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.24%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.45%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.45%)1.8%O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.81%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.81%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.35%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.35%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.47%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.47%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.82%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.82%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.23%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.23%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.70%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.70%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.56%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.56%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.10%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.10%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.01%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.01%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.03%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.03%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.77%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.77%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.62%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.62%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.56%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.56%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.48%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.48%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.28%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.28%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.48%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.48%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.28%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.28%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.16%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.16%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.75%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.75%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.81%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.81%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.22%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.22%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=11,685,231 · μ=467409.2 · σ=527196.8 · CV=1.13BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130669,1381,338,2762,007,4142,676,552μ = 467409187,262 · 7.0% peak187,262 · 7.0% peak116,714 · 4.4% peak116,714 · 4.4% peak119,500 · 4.5% peak119,500 · 4.5% peak133,150 · 5.0% peak133,150 · 5.0% peak2,676,5522,676,552 · 100.0% peak2,676,552 · 100.0% peak792,350 · 29.6% peak792,350 · 29.6% peak187,733 · 7.0% peak187,733 · 7.0% peak620,183 · 23.2% peak620,183 · 23.2% peak205,294 · 7.7% peak205,294 · 7.7% peak144,305 · 5.4% peak144,305 · 5.4% peak215,577 · 8.1% peak215,577 · 8.1% peak174,552 · 6.5% peak174,552 · 6.5% peak304,972 · 11.4% peak304,972 · 11.4% peak769,709 · 28.8% peak769,709 · 28.8% peak998,305 · 37.3% peak998,305 · 37.3% peak436,297 · 16.3% peak436,297 · 16.3% peak582,325 · 21.8% peak582,325 · 21.8% peak749,634 · 28.0% peak749,634 · 28.0% peak357,569 · 13.4% peak357,569 · 13.4% peak634,357 · 23.7% peak634,357 · 23.7% peak380,651 · 14.2% peak380,651 · 14.2% peak374,105 · 14.0% peak374,105 · 14.0% peak258,729 · 9.7% peak258,729 · 9.7% peak200,796 · 7.5% peak200,796 · 7.5% peak64,610 · 2.4% peak64,610 · 2.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 11685231 · peak 2676552 · CV 1.13

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0073 · skew=0.60 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.41 (mesokurtic)43210 2-99.79bpbin -99.79bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -99.79bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-76.38bpbin -76.38bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -76.38bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-52.96bpbin -52.96bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -52.96bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 1-29.55bpbin -29.55bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -29.55bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-6.14bpbin -6.14bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -6.14bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 417.27bpbin 17.27bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 17.27bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 140.69bpbin 40.69bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 40.69bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 364.10bpbin 64.10bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 64.10bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak87.51bp 1110.93bpbin 110.93bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 110.93bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak134.34bp 2157.75bpbin 157.75bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 157.75bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.67 · kurt=-0.27 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0089
Mid price
$0.0089
24h change
+0.16%
Mark–mid spread
1.12 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0089

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.22)
μ MEAN0.0089$95% CI: [0.0089$, 0.0090$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.75%
med MEDIAN0.0089$Q₁ 0.0089$ · Q₃ 0.0090$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0002$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0088$Q₁ 0.0089$med 0.0089$Q₃ 0.0090$max 0.0090$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.138approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.224platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.23
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.93
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.43
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCELLENT · SR=2.72
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.022000%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.029
σᵣ STD / h0.757930%σ²ᵣ = 0.574×10⁻⁴ · CV = 34.45×
σ ANNUALISED70.94%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.758%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)2.72excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)3.36strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)85.20exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.71right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.04mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.24
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 85.20
EXPECTED EDGE+192.72%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.92%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.922%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.076%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.030%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.26%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.922%VaR₉₉−1.076%ES₉₅−1.030%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK0.90$
−2.26% drawdown over 3h
0.88$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.12× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.31% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
49.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.431 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0091
Bollinger MA
$0.0089
Bollinger lower
$0.0088

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.391within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.044lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.764strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.411significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.764
H = 0.764STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.391k=2+0.044k=3-0.262k=4+0.345k=5-0.2960+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.41)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.92very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.41)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$103.53k
Open interest (USD)
$216.42k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.48x
1h funding
-0.003971%
Funding (annualised)
-34.78%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
3.830× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.915× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.957×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.69% · worst -1.11% · typical |Δ| 0.60%MILD BULLISH +0.53%BEST+1.69%01hWORST-1.11%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.60%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.53%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.89%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.14%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.53%+1.87%-0.71%0.11% · 12h0.11% · 12h0.11%12h-0.59% · 13h-0.59% · 13h-0.59%13h0.46% · 14h0.46% · 14h0.46%14h1.59% · 15h1.59% · 15h1.59%15h-1.11% · 16h-1.11% · 16h-1.11%16h▼ WORST-0.46% · 17h-0.46% · 17h-0.46%17h-0.71% · 18h-0.71% · 18h-0.71%18h1.14% · 19h1.14% · 19h1.14%19h-0.79% · 20h-0.79% · 20h-0.79%20h0.72% · 21h0.72% · 21h0.72%21h-0.15% · 22h-0.15% · 22h-0.15%22h-0.13% · 23h-0.13% · 23h-0.13%23h0.10% · 00h0.10% · 00h0.10%00h1.69% · 01h1.69% · 01h1.69%01h★ BEST-0.70% · 02h-0.70% · 02h-0.70%02h0.64% · 03h0.64% · 03h0.64%03h-0.42% · 04h-0.42% · 04h-0.42%04h0.21% · 05h0.21% · 05h0.21%05h-0.54% · 06h-0.54% · 06h-0.54%06h-0.10% · 07h-0.10% · 07h-0.10%07h0.08% · 08h0.08% · 08h0.08%08h0.66% · 09h0.66% · 09h0.66%09h-0.95% · 10h-0.95% · 10h-0.95%10h-0.22% · 11h-0.22% · 11h-0.22%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.14%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.69% · worst -1.11% · typical |Δ| 0.595%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.46%FINAL+0.46%MAX DD-2.27%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.84%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0046 · peak 1.0184 · range [0.9927, 1.0184]1.01840.9927break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0184UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.27% · moderate0%-2.27%▼ TROUGH -2.27%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.27%bar 6-14 · 9 bars · recovered#2 -1.35%bar 16-25 · 10 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.59%bar 3-4 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.27%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0046 (0.46%) · max DD -2.27% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=2.75 · σ=19.57MIXED EDGELAST -30.87 (-1.72σ vs μ)30.8715.430.00-15.43-30.87μ = 2.75-0.00-0.00-12.96-12.9612.9912.99-4.83-4.83-20.81-20.81-4.84-4.841.591.5920.2820.2826.2026.2028.5128.5127.3327.3321.3421.3428.0728.0715.1215.12-27.93-27.93-4.79-4.79-4.33-4.33-17.76-17.76-30.87-30.87v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -30.866 · range [-30.87, 28.51] · μ 2.753 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=73.8168 · σ=19.3064 · range [40.7073, 105.7239] · R²=0.641▼ FALLING -42.70%σ EXTREME 26.15%LAST 51.1320105.723989.469873.215656.961540.7073μ = 73.8168max 105.7239min 40.7073dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 51.13% · range [40.71%, 105.72%] · μ 73.82% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.427 · σ=0.212MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.267 (+0.75σ vs μ)0.7960.3980.000-0.398-0.796μ = -0.427-0.189-0.189-0.085-0.085-0.157-0.157-0.424-0.424-0.395-0.395-0.644-0.644-0.796-0.796-0.652-0.652-0.184-0.184-0.443-0.443-0.504-0.504-0.569-0.569-0.608-0.608-0.502-0.502-0.704-0.704-0.473-0.473-0.118-0.118-0.396-0.396-0.267-0.267v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.267 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.0229
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3637
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
12.8439
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0248
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.7636
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0666
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2965
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5342
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0340
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6384
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1013
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.501 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.16e-5 · top T=2.00h (46.2%) · top-3 cover 70.9%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.0e-43.0e-42.0e-49.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.29e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.29e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.89e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.89e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.41e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.41e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.98e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.98e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.64e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.64e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.18e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.18e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.32e-4 · 15.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.32e-4 · 15.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.71e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.71e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.98e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.98e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.96e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.96e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.39e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.39e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.97e-4 · 46.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.97e-4 · 46.2% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 46.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.592e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-13.56×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -12.89400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.006
annualized -12.89
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -622% · APY -100% · Sharpe -9.19σ ann 68% · Sortino -5.63 · n 4999
-1103%-866%-629%-392%-155%81%-622.5%APR (simple)-99.8%APY (compound)67.7%Ann. vol σ-918.9%Sharpe (ann)-562.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0090.0090.0090.0090.0090.009t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:26 UTC
Snapshot age
2.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:31 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b859f79abe49210141ee9215f2399544d2325d65facebccb2b41a481bd803cb4 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,504HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.73

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$2.70K
bid $2.07K · ask $621
Depth within 50bp
$66.04K
bid $27.93K · ask $38.12K
Mid price
0.008932
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
13.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.258
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.002
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-bigtime/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0089408.41bp0.0089422FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00894918.84bp0.0089588FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00897851.01bp0.00911120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0089266.72bp0.0089261FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00891420.28bp0.0089048FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00889244.87bp0.00877320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-3.971e-5
-0.00397% / hr
Annualised APR
-34.808%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
10.5d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
10.5d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE34.808%10.5d104.9d
SHORTPAY-34.808%10.5d104.9d

/api/asset/hl-bigtime/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$11.69M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-bigtime/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.163 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$6.69M
real volume
Sell weight
$4.81M
real volume
Net delta
$1.88M
buyers net
Imbalance
16.33%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
16.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-bigtime/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.26% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.009019→0.0088152.262%3
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h0.009030→0.0089251.163%2
#32026-06-14 06:00:00Z2.0h0.009041→0.0089640.852%3

/api/asset/hl-bigtime/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
67.75%
σ per bar = 0.000295
Mean return (annualised)
-622.50%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.19
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.98%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 1902 bars

/api/asset/hl-bigtime/risk · same metrics, JSON