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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

IO

IO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-io · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.27%
realized vol (ann.)
157.72%
max drawdown
2.10%
sharpe
26.02
ulcer index
0.78%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.61%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
5249.75
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.78%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.07
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2311.28
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.07
upside/downside
roll spread
5.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.27%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-47.31%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • 24h change -4.27%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 18.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-io/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.177
24h Δ · live
-4.27%
24h vol · live
$0.8M
IO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1811 · σ=0.0038 · range [0.1750, 0.1882] · R²=0.796▼ FALLING -3.62%σ NORMAL 2.11%LAST 0.17760.18820.18490.18160.17830.1750μ = 0.1811max 0.1882min 0.1750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.18
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.5%Short fee 50.5%SHORT FEE50.5%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.5%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.5%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.005401% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=4,739,121 · μ=189564.8 · σ=157777.0 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140162,262324,524486,786649,048μ = 189565649,047.950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 649048 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.9s
$mark $
$0.1775
$mid $
$0.1775
◉prev-day close
$0.1854
Δ24h Δ %
-4.271%
$24h vol $
$815.73k
◐open interest $
$722.07k
%funding (1h)
-0.005401%
%funding (yr)
-47.31%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1811 · σ=0.0038 · range [0.1750, 0.1882] · R²=0.796▼ FALLING -3.62%σ NORMAL 2.11%LAST 0.17760.18820.18490.18160.17830.1750μ = 0.1811max 0.1882min 0.1750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1775 · 24h -4.27% · range $[0.1750, 0.1882]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.1730, 0.1918] · σ=0.0038 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=45%BEARISH -0.61%CLOSE 0.1776 vs OPEN 0.1787 (-0.61%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.17760.19180.18710.18240.17770.1730μ close = 0.18113.1%O0.179 H0.187 L0.178 C0.184 (+3.12%)O0.179 H0.187 L0.178 C0.184 (+3.12%)O0.184 H0.192 L0.184 C0.188 (+1.89%)O0.184 H0.192 L0.184 C0.188 (+1.89%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.37%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.37%)O0.189 H0.190 L0.187 C0.187 (-0.91%)O0.189 H0.190 L0.187 C0.187 (-0.91%)O0.187 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.12%)O0.187 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.12%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.181 C0.183 (-2.09%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.181 C0.183 (-2.09%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.181 C0.181 (-1.05%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.181 C0.181 (-1.05%)O0.180 H0.184 L0.180 C0.183 (+1.45%)O0.180 H0.184 L0.180 C0.183 (+1.45%)O0.183 H0.185 L0.181 C0.184 (+0.28%)O0.183 H0.185 L0.181 C0.184 (+0.28%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.182 C0.184 (+0.27%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.182 C0.184 (+0.27%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.182 C0.184 (-0.54%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.182 C0.184 (-0.54%)O0.184 H0.184 L0.181 C0.182 (-1.01%)O0.184 H0.184 L0.181 C0.182 (-1.01%)O0.182 H0.182 L0.180 C0.180 (-0.86%)O0.182 H0.182 L0.180 C0.180 (-0.86%)O0.180 H0.180 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.93%)O0.180 H0.180 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.93%)O0.178 H0.179 L0.177 C0.178 (+0.02%)O0.178 H0.179 L0.177 C0.178 (+0.02%)O0.179 H0.180 L0.178 C0.180 (+1.04%)O0.179 H0.180 L0.178 C0.180 (+1.04%)O0.180 H0.182 L0.179 C0.181 (+0.10%)O0.180 H0.182 L0.179 C0.181 (+0.10%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.177 C0.177 (-1.82%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.177 C0.177 (-1.82%)O0.177 H0.179 L0.177 C0.179 (+0.98%)O0.177 H0.179 L0.177 C0.179 (+0.98%)O0.179 H0.181 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.62%)O0.179 H0.181 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.62%)O0.178 H0.178 L0.174 C0.175 (-1.55%)O0.178 H0.178 L0.174 C0.175 (-1.55%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.173 C0.176 (+0.60%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.173 C0.176 (+0.60%)O0.176 H0.177 L0.174 C0.176 (+0.18%)O0.176 H0.177 L0.174 C0.176 (+0.18%)O0.176 H0.182 L0.176 C0.178 (+1.24%)O0.176 H0.182 L0.176 C0.178 (+1.24%)O0.178 H0.179 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.34%)O0.178 H0.179 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.34%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=4,739,121 · μ=189564.8 · σ=157777.0 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140162,262324,524486,786649,048μ = 189565562,287.3 · 86.6% peak562,287.3 · 86.6% peak331,376 · 51.1% peak331,376 · 51.1% peak192,893.5 · 29.7% peak192,893.5 · 29.7% peak169,758.7 · 26.2% peak169,758.7 · 26.2% peak85,845.1 · 13.2% peak85,845.1 · 13.2% peak205,920.6 · 31.7% peak205,920.6 · 31.7% peak291,022.8 · 44.8% peak291,022.8 · 44.8% peak105,107.9 · 16.2% peak105,107.9 · 16.2% peak102,903 · 15.9% peak102,903 · 15.9% peak106,993.3 · 16.5% peak106,993.3 · 16.5% peak61,063.2 · 9.4% peak61,063.2 · 9.4% peak78,800.9 · 12.1% peak78,800.9 · 12.1% peak74,188.1 · 11.4% peak74,188.1 · 11.4% peak132,301.7 · 20.4% peak132,301.7 · 20.4% peak115,312.3 · 17.8% peak115,312.3 · 17.8% peak68,481.6 · 10.6% peak68,481.6 · 10.6% peak372,697.9 · 57.4% peak372,697.9 · 57.4% peak49,840.3 · 7.7% peak49,840.3 · 7.7% peak114,424.7 · 17.6% peak114,424.7 · 17.6% peak204,500.8 · 31.5% peak204,500.8 · 31.5% peak220,286.4 · 33.9% peak220,286.4 · 33.9% peak649,047.9649,047.9 · 100.0% peak649,047.9 · 100.0% peak104,028 · 16.0% peak104,028 · 16.0% peak329,086.3 · 50.7% peak329,086.3 · 50.7% peak10,952.5 · 1.7% peak10,952.5 · 1.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 4739121 · peak 649048 · CV 0.83

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0015 · σ=0.0098 · skew=-0.03 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.73 (mesokurtic)43210 2-190.56bpbin -190.56bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -190.56bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-157.40bpbin -157.40bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -157.40bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-124.23bpbin -124.23bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -124.23bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-91.06bpbin -91.06bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -91.06bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-57.90bpbin -57.90bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -57.90bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-24.73bpbin -24.73bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -24.73bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 38.43bpbin 8.43bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 8.43bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 441.60bpbin 41.60bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 41.60bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 174.76bpbin 74.76bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 74.76bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2107.93bpbin 107.93bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 107.93bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1141.09bpbin 141.09bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 141.09bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1174.26bpbin 174.26bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 174.26bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.07 · kurt=-0.67 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1775
Mid price
$0.1775
24h change
-4.27%
Mark–mid spread
0.56 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1854

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.14)
μ MEAN0.1811$95% CI: [0.1796$, 0.1826$]
σ STD DEV0.0038$σ² = 0.146×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.11%
med MEDIAN0.1806$Q₁ 0.1782$ · Q₃ 0.1838$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0132$ · IQR 0.0055$ (1.349σ→0.0052$)
min 0.1750$Q₁ 0.1782$med 0.1806$Q₃ 0.1838$max 0.1882$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.268approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.140platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.14
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.93
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.44
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-14.06
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.153635%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.150
σᵣ STD / h1.023073%σ²ᵣ = 1.047×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.66×
σ ANNUALISED95.75%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.023%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-14.06negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-12.80downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.08approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.53mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.91
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1345.84%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.74%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.739%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.006%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.930%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN7.00%18h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.739%VaR₉₉−2.006%ES₉₅−1.930%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 18h duration
PEAK18.82$
−7.00% drawdown over 18h
17.50$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +7.52% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
42.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.307 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1854
Bollinger MA
$0.1798
Bollinger lower
$0.1741

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.079within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.251lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.063strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.465significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.063
H = 1.063STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=4
k=1+0.079k=2-0.251k=3-0.122k=4 ★-0.415k=5-0.1180+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.46)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.46)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$815.73k
Open interest (USD)
$722.07k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.13x
1h funding
-0.005401%
Funding (annualised)
-47.31%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.91% · worst -2.07% · typical |Δ| 0.84%MILD BEARISH -3.69%BEST+1.91%12hWORST-2.07%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.84%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.69%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.35% · Σ -2.84%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.32% · Σ +2.57%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.43% · Σ -3.42%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.69%+2.12%-5.14%1.91% · 12h1.91% · 12h1.91%12h★ BEST0.21% · 13h0.21% · 13h0.21%13h-0.74% · 14h-0.74% · 14h-0.74%14h-0.25% · 15h-0.25% · 15h-0.25%15h-2.07% · 16h-2.07% · 16h-2.07%16h▼ WORST-0.93% · 17h-0.93% · 17h-0.93%17h1.25% · 18h1.25% · 18h1.25%18h0.34% · 19h0.34% · 19h0.34%19h0.39% · 20h0.39% · 20h0.39%20h-0.35% · 21h-0.35% · 21h-0.35%21h-1.08% · 22h-1.08% · 22h-1.08%22h-0.96% · 23h-0.96% · 23h-0.96%23h-1.02% · 00h-1.02% · 00h-1.02%00h0.02% · 01h0.02% · 01h0.02%01h1.24% · 02h1.24% · 02h1.24%02h0.06% · 03h0.06% · 03h0.06%03h-1.79% · 04h-1.79% · 04h-1.79%04h0.84% · 05h0.84% · 05h0.84%05h-0.73% · 06h-0.73% · 06h-0.73%06h-1.46% · 07h-1.46% · 07h-1.46%07h0.46% · 08h0.46% · 08h0.46%08h0.32% · 09h0.32% · 09h0.32%09h1.19% · 10h1.19% · 10h1.19%10h-0.52% · 11h-0.52% · 11h-0.52%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.57%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.91% · worst -2.07% · typical |Δ| 0.838%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.74%)FINAL-3.74%MAX DD-7.09%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.12%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9626 · peak 1.0212 · range [0.9488, 1.0212]1.02120.9488break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0212UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -7.09% · significant0%-7.09%▼ TROUGH -7.09%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -7.09%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -7.09%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9626 (-3.74%) · max DD -7.09% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-25.97 · σ=20.34UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -12.06 (+0.68σ vs μ)76.3138.160.00-38.16-76.31μ = -25.97-22.01-22.01-35.32-35.32-33.03-33.03-17.20-17.20-18.53-18.53-6.93-6.93-7.34-7.34-61.66-61.66-76.31-76.31-37.37-37.37-29.63-29.63-35.63-35.63-8.91-8.91-5.14-5.14-23.35-23.35-38.62-38.62-33.91-33.919.519.51-12.06-12.06v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -12.063 · range [-76.31, 9.51] · μ -25.971 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=95.7650 · σ=16.7560 · range [57.5091, 124.6314] · R²=0.017▼ FALLING -28.08%σ EXTREME 17.50%LAST 89.6319124.6314107.850891.070274.289757.5091μ = 95.7650max 124.6314min 57.5091dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 89.63% · range [57.51%, 124.63%] · μ 95.76% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=0.055 · σ=0.304CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.077 (+0.07σ vs μ)0.6010.3000.000-0.300-0.601μ = 0.0550.2130.213-0.087-0.0870.1440.1440.2210.2210.2020.202-0.066-0.0660.4450.4450.5570.5570.1470.1470.2930.2930.4310.4310.1580.158-0.248-0.248-0.353-0.353-0.220-0.220-0.601-0.601-0.349-0.3490.0890.0890.0770.077v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.077 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.3105
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8562
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.2253
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1430
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1228
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7064
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.2523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8049
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0069
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.5308
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5955
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.838 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.01e-4 · top T=8.00h (29.3%) · top-3 cover 52.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.5e-42.7e-41.8e-48.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.36e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.36e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.61e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.61e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.55e-4 · 29.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.55e-4 · 29.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.14e-4 · 9.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.14e-4 · 9.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.53e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.53e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.89e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.89e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.55e-4 · 12.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.55e-4 · 12.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.16e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.16e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.20e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.20e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.22e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.22e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.12e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.12e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 1.0% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 29.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.210e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -9.20× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-9.20×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -16.81400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -16.81
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -11.68σ ann 127% · Sortino -13.24 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1589%-1240%-892%-544%-196%152%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)126.9%Ann. vol σ-1168.2%Sharpe (ann)-1323.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1670.1720.1760.1810.1850.189t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:21 UTC
Snapshot age
3.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:25 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
dd80327c82b9b0d5048927566e2bd005b358cf4b56105854885262f5e1b43819 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,504HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.72

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$299
bid $210 · ask $90
Depth within 10bp
$1.79K
bid $210 · ask $1.58K
Depth within 50bp
$23.90K
bid $13.30K · ask $10.59K
Mid price
0.177510
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.116
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.059
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-io/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1776025.17bp0.1776503FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.17785219.28bp0.17827020FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.17787620.59bp0.17827020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.17733110.08bp0.1773004FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.17712221.84bp0.17688014FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.17701627.82bp0.17663020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-5.401e-5
-0.00540% / hr
Annualised APR
-47.343%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
7.7d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
7.7d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE47.343%7.7d77.1d
SHORTPAY-47.343%7.7d77.1d

/api/asset/hl-io/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$4.74M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-io/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.241 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.59M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.58M
real volume
Net delta
$1.01M
buyers net
Imbalance
24.13%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
24.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-io/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.92% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 14:00:00Z4.0h0.188190→0.1808203.916%5
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z3.0h0.184420→0.1782403.351%4
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z5.0h0.180610→0.1750203.095%6

/api/asset/hl-io/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
126.95%
σ per bar = 0.000554
Mean return (annualised)
-1482.98%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-11.68
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.47%
peak 0.18 → trough 0.17 over 3022 bars

/api/asset/hl-io/risk · same metrics, JSON