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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ALT

ALT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-alt · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.38%
realized vol (ann.)
108.12%
max drawdown
2.92%
sharpe
-31.81
ulcer index
1.21%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.89%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2837.89
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.79%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1232.29
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.38%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-17.42%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 20.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-alt/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.006
24h Δ · live
0.38%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
ALT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0064 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0063, 0.0067] · R²=0.160▲ RISING +0.82%σ NORMAL 1.35%LAST 0.00640.00670.00660.00650.00640.0063μ = 0.0064max 0.0067min 0.0063dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.8%Short fee 51.2%SHORT FEE51.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.001988% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=85,363,065 · μ=3414522.6 · σ=4920041.9 · CV=1.44BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1304,151,5398,303,07812,454,61716,606,156μ = 341452316,606,15650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 16606156 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.0s
$mark $
$0.0064
$mid $
$0.0064
◉prev-day close
$0.0064
Δ24h Δ %
+0.378%
$24h vol $
$551.15k
◐open interest $
$301.94k
%funding (1h)
-0.001988%
%funding (yr)
-17.42%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0064 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0063, 0.0067] · R²=0.160▲ RISING +0.82%σ NORMAL 1.35%LAST 0.00640.00670.00660.00650.00640.0063μ = 0.0064max 0.0067min 0.0063dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0064 · 24h 0.38% · range $[0.0063, 0.0067]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0063, 0.0068] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BULLISH +1.06%CLOSE 0.0064 vs OPEN 0.0063 (+1.06%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00640.00680.00660.00650.00640.0063μ close = 0.0064O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.24%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.24%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.21%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.21%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.39%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.39%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.17%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.17%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.89%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.89%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.80%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.80%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.20%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.20%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.82%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.82%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.45%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.45%)4.0%O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+3.97%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+3.97%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.92%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.92%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.74%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.74%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.51%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.51%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.86%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.86%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.25%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.25%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.39%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.39%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.31%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.31%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.68%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.68%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.58%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.58%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.11%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.11%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+0.99%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+0.99%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.02%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.02%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.25%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.25%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=85,363,065 · μ=3414522.6 · σ=4920041.9 · CV=1.44BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1304,151,5398,303,07812,454,61716,606,156μ = 3414523619,041 · 3.7% peak619,041 · 3.7% peak385,492 · 2.3% peak385,492 · 2.3% peak370,812 · 2.2% peak370,812 · 2.2% peak626,160 · 3.8% peak626,160 · 3.8% peak728,064 · 4.4% peak728,064 · 4.4% peak12,847,433 · 77.4% peak12,847,433 · 77.4% peak2,044,955 · 12.3% peak2,044,955 · 12.3% peak1,444,919 · 8.7% peak1,444,919 · 8.7% peak2,118,358 · 12.8% peak2,118,358 · 12.8% peak652,356 · 3.9% peak652,356 · 3.9% peak738,109 · 4.4% peak738,109 · 4.4% peak5,601,366 · 33.7% peak5,601,366 · 33.7% peak16,606,15616,606,156 · 100.0% peak16,606,156 · 100.0% peak11,426,703 · 68.8% peak11,426,703 · 68.8% peak3,577,491 · 21.5% peak3,577,491 · 21.5% peak922,203 · 5.6% peak922,203 · 5.6% peak14,838,405 · 89.4% peak14,838,405 · 89.4% peak670,187 · 4.0% peak670,187 · 4.0% peak494,897 · 3.0% peak494,897 · 3.0% peak701,781 · 4.2% peak701,781 · 4.2% peak1,747,508 · 10.5% peak1,747,508 · 10.5% peak911,478 · 5.5% peak911,478 · 5.5% peak4,003,641 · 24.1% peak4,003,641 · 24.1% peak1,190,101 · 7.2% peak1,190,101 · 7.2% peak95,449 · 0.6% peak95,449 · 0.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 85363065 · peak 16606156 · CV 1.44

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0102 · skew=1.82 (right-skewed) · kurt=5.50 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 1-169.88bpbin -169.88bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -169.88bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-119.35bpbin -119.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -119.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 5-68.82bpbin -68.82bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -68.82bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 6-18.29bpbin -18.29bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -18.29bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 632.24bpbin 32.24bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 32.24bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 482.77bpbin 82.77bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 82.77bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak133.30bp183.83bp234.36bp284.89bp335.42bp 1385.95bpbin 385.95bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 385.95bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.85 · kurt=5.73 · near 16 / mid 7 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.70σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0064
Mid price
$0.0064
24h change
+0.38%
Mark–mid spread
1.57 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0064

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.88)
μ MEAN0.0064$95% CI: [0.0064$, 0.0065$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.35%
med MEDIAN0.0064$Q₁ 0.0064$ · Q₃ 0.0065$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0063$Q₁ 0.0064$med 0.0064$Q₃ 0.0065$max 0.0067$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.882right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.642mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.34
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.27
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCELLENT · SR=2.86
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.034116%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.031
σᵣ STD / h1.115418%σ²ᵣ = 1.244×10⁻⁴ · CV = 32.70×
σ ANNUALISED104.40%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.115%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)2.86excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)3.97strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)66.51exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.98right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂7.44leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.39
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 66.51
EXPECTED EDGE+298.85%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.07%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.069%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.755%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.525%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.49%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.069%VaR₉₉−1.755%ES₉₅−1.525%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK0.67$
−4.49% drawdown over 13h
0.64$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.43× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.64× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.70% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
48.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.227 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0066
Bollinger MA
$0.0065
Bollinger lower
$0.0063

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.050within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.216lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.063strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.095significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.063
H = 1.063STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.050k=2-0.216k=3-0.102k=4-0.114k=5-0.0190+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.09)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.09)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$551.15k
Open interest (USD)
$301.94k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.83x
1h funding
-0.001988%
Funding (annualised)
-17.42%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
2.742× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.371× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.686×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.11% · worst -1.95% · typical |Δ| 0.72%MILD BULLISH +0.82%BEST+4.11%22hWORST-1.95%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.72%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.82%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.27% · Σ -2.13%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.68%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.45% · Σ +3.62%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.82%+5.42%-0.32%0.25% · 12h0.25% · 12h0.25%12h-0.40% · 13h-0.40% · 13h-0.40%13h-0.17% · 14h-0.17% · 14h-0.17%14h1.01% · 15h1.01% · 15h1.01%15h0.88% · 16h0.88% · 16h0.88%16h-0.06% · 17h-0.06% · 17h-0.06%17h-0.17% · 18h-0.17% · 18h-0.17%18h0.25% · 19h0.25% · 19h0.25%19h-0.81% · 20h-0.81% · 20h-0.81%20h0.53% · 21h0.53% · 21h0.53%21h4.11% · 22h4.11% · 22h4.11%22h★ BEST-1.10% · 23h-1.10% · 23h-1.10%23h-0.87% · 00h-0.87% · 00h-0.87%00h-0.71% · 01h-0.71% · 01h-0.71%01h-0.90% · 02h-0.90% · 02h-0.90%02h0.19% · 03h0.19% · 03h0.19%03h-0.40% · 04h-0.40% · 04h-0.40%04h0.28% · 05h0.28% · 05h0.28%05h-0.48% · 06h-0.48% · 06h-0.48%06h0.76% · 07h0.76% · 07h0.76%07h0.23% · 08h0.23% · 08h0.23%08h0.62% · 09h0.62% · 09h0.62%09h-1.95% · 10h-1.95% · 10h-1.95%10h▼ WORST-0.27% · 11h-0.27% · 11h-0.27%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+3.62%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 4.11% · worst -1.95% · typical |Δ| 0.725%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.68%FINAL+0.68%MAX DD-4.53%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.46%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0068 · peak 1.0546 · range [0.9968, 1.0546]1.05460.9968break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0546UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.53% · moderate0%-4.53%▼ TROUGH -4.53%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -4.53%bar 13-25 · 13 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.81%bar 10-11 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.57%bar 3-4 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.53%)RECOVERYongoing · 13 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0068 (0.68%) · max DD -4.53% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=0.07 · σ=44.59PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -17.16 (-0.39σ vs μ)127.6363.810.00-63.81-127.63μ = 0.0740.7540.7528.0528.0550.6250.6224.7924.7916.1316.1334.1134.1123.2123.2116.8716.879.039.038.348.345.685.68-127.63-127.63-71.90-71.90-66.40-66.40-14.28-14.2819.1719.1730.4530.45-8.45-8.45-17.16-17.16v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -17.161 · range [-127.63, 50.62] · μ 0.073 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=96.8390 · σ=60.8100 · range [43.2989, 188.4020] · R²=0.010▲ RISING +72.11%σ EXTREME 62.79%LAST 92.8799188.4020152.1263115.850579.574743.2989μ = 96.8390max 188.4020min 43.2989dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 92.88% · range [43.30%, 188.40%] · μ 96.84% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.118 · σ=0.220MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.167 (-0.22σ vs μ)0.4950.2470.000-0.247-0.495μ = -0.1180.1380.1380.2230.2230.0450.0450.1710.171-0.373-0.3730.0800.080-0.288-0.288-0.162-0.162-0.087-0.087-0.021-0.021-0.103-0.1030.1090.109-0.001-0.001-0.224-0.224-0.491-0.491-0.495-0.495-0.346-0.346-0.254-0.254-0.167-0.167v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.167 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
70.9638
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.1175
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8341
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.3180
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1741
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3258
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1370
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6836
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4942
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.792 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.20e-4 · top T=3.43h (21.1%) · top-3 cover 51.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.0e-42.3e-41.5e-47.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.15e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.15e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.57e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.57e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.24e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.24e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.25e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.25e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.10e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.10e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.99e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.99e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.03e-4 · 21.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.03e-4 · 21.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.52e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.52e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.43e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.43e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.30e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.30e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.50e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.50e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.07e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.07e-6 · 0.6% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=8.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 21.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.435e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -9.52× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-9.52×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -5.22400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.002
annualized -5.22
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -838% · APY -100% · Sharpe -8.93σ ann 94% · Sortino -8.48 · n 4999
-1072%-835%-598%-361%-124%113%-838.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)93.8%Ann. vol σ-893.3%Sharpe (ann)-847.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0060.0060.0060.0070.0070.007t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:21 UTC
Snapshot age
1.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:23 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b27fe266c357bba6292c894e3a069df023ab2a3538ed74949d49e818689159ac · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,504HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.72

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.38K
bid $2.26K · ask $1.12K
Depth within 10bp
$6.75K
bid $4.32K · ask $2.44K
Depth within 50bp
$51.52K
bid $35.26K · ask $16.26K
Mid price
0.006379
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.312
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.180
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-alt/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0063802.86bp0.0063812FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00638916.79bp0.00639911FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00640237.15bp0.00643020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0063772.35bp0.0063771FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0063729.76bp0.00636210FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00635634.87bp0.00630720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.988e-5
-0.00199% / hr
Annualised APR
-17.428%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
21.0d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
21.0d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE17.428%21.0d209.6d
SHORTPAY-17.428%21.0d209.6d

/api/asset/hl-alt/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$85.36M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-alt/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.048 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$44.41M
real volume
Sell weight
$40.33M
real volume
Net delta
$4.09M
buyers net
Imbalance
4.82%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
4.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-alt/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 3.71% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 23:00:00Z5.0h0.006677→0.0064293.714%6
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h0.006520→0.0063772.193%2
#32026-06-13 20:00:00Z0ms0.006426→0.0063740.809%1

/api/asset/hl-alt/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
93.81%
σ per bar = 0.000409
Mean return (annualised)
-837.95%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-8.93
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.92%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 1212 bars

/api/asset/hl-alt/risk · same metrics, JSON