Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ETC

ETC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-etc · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.18%
realized vol (ann.)
30.27%
max drawdown
0.63%
sharpe
10.51
ulcer index
0.29%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.24%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1098.29
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.59%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
542.00
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.18%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.18%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-etc/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$7.106
24h Δ · live
-1.18%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
ETC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=7.1604 · σ=0.0327 · range [7.1000, 7.2155] · R²=0.750▼ FALLING -1.12%σ LOW 0.46%LAST 7.10817.21557.18667.15787.12897.1000μ = 7.1604max 7.2155min 7.1000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.75μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $7.11
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=45,027 · μ=1801.1 · σ=2847.3 · CV=1.58BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=703,5887,17510,76314,350μ = 180114,350.4150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 14350 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.3s
$mark $
$7.1065
$mid $
$7.1051
◉prev-day close
$7.1914
Δ24h Δ %
-1.181%
$24h vol $
$321.61k
◐open interest $
$1.36M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=7.1604 · σ=0.0327 · range [7.1000, 7.2155] · R²=0.750▼ FALLING -1.12%σ LOW 0.46%LAST 7.10817.21557.18667.15787.12897.1000μ = 7.1604max 7.2155min 7.1000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.75μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $7.1065 · 24h -1.18% · range $[7.1000, 7.2155]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [7.0882, 7.2300] · σ=0.0327 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -0.89%CLOSE 7.1081 vs OPEN 7.1722 (-0.89%)&#9660; CLOSE 7.10817.23007.19467.15917.12367.0882μ close = 7.1604O7.172 H7.197 L7.172 C7.189 (+0.23%)O7.172 H7.197 L7.172 C7.189 (+0.23%)O7.194 H7.203 L7.179 C7.193 (-0.02%)O7.194 H7.203 L7.179 C7.193 (-0.02%)O7.189 H7.197 L7.169 C7.170 (-0.27%)O7.189 H7.197 L7.169 C7.170 (-0.27%)O7.171 H7.188 L7.153 C7.179 (+0.10%)O7.171 H7.188 L7.153 C7.179 (+0.10%)O7.179 H7.230 L7.178 C7.215 (+0.51%)O7.179 H7.230 L7.178 C7.215 (+0.51%)-0.5%O7.220 H7.221 L7.161 C7.181 (-0.54%)O7.220 H7.221 L7.161 C7.181 (-0.54%)O7.187 H7.212 L7.171 C7.186 (-0.02%)O7.187 H7.212 L7.171 C7.186 (-0.02%)O7.193 H7.215 L7.179 C7.184 (-0.13%)O7.193 H7.215 L7.179 C7.184 (-0.13%)O7.189 H7.207 L7.175 C7.191 (+0.03%)O7.189 H7.207 L7.175 C7.191 (+0.03%)O7.189 H7.190 L7.169 C7.190 (+0.02%)O7.189 H7.190 L7.169 C7.190 (+0.02%)O7.190 H7.227 L7.166 C7.207 (+0.23%)O7.190 H7.227 L7.166 C7.207 (+0.23%)O7.200 H7.200 L7.168 C7.172 (-0.38%)O7.200 H7.200 L7.168 C7.172 (-0.38%)O7.173 H7.186 L7.168 C7.177 (+0.06%)O7.173 H7.186 L7.168 C7.177 (+0.06%)O7.184 H7.184 L7.150 C7.155 (-0.39%)O7.184 H7.184 L7.150 C7.155 (-0.39%)O7.158 H7.180 L7.149 C7.149 (-0.12%)O7.158 H7.180 L7.149 C7.149 (-0.12%)O7.138 H7.167 L7.133 C7.154 (+0.22%)O7.138 H7.167 L7.133 C7.154 (+0.22%)O7.156 H7.180 L7.146 C7.156 (-0.00%)O7.156 H7.180 L7.146 C7.156 (-0.00%)O7.156 H7.157 L7.117 C7.123 (-0.46%)O7.156 H7.157 L7.117 C7.123 (-0.46%)O7.119 H7.127 L7.088 C7.125 (+0.09%)O7.119 H7.127 L7.088 C7.125 (+0.09%)O7.128 H7.160 L7.128 C7.145 (+0.23%)O7.128 H7.160 L7.128 C7.145 (+0.23%)O7.135 H7.138 L7.097 C7.100 (-0.49%)O7.135 H7.138 L7.097 C7.100 (-0.49%)O7.098 H7.135 L7.094 C7.118 (+0.28%)O7.098 H7.135 L7.094 C7.118 (+0.28%)O7.120 H7.128 L7.089 C7.128 (+0.11%)O7.120 H7.128 L7.089 C7.128 (+0.11%)O7.133 H7.147 L7.116 C7.116 (-0.23%)O7.133 H7.147 L7.116 C7.116 (-0.23%)O7.122 H7.122 L7.104 C7.108 (-0.20%)O7.122 H7.122 L7.104 C7.108 (-0.20%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=45,027 · μ=1801.1 · σ=2847.3 · CV=1.58BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=703,5887,17510,76314,350μ = 1801738.83 · 5.1% peak738.83 · 5.1% peak557.05 · 3.9% peak557.05 · 3.9% peak354.29 · 2.5% peak354.29 · 2.5% peak2,221.78 · 15.5% peak2,221.78 · 15.5% peak14,350.4114,350.41 · 100.0% peak14,350.41 · 100.0% peak2,269.25 · 15.8% peak2,269.25 · 15.8% peak3,859.72 · 26.9% peak3,859.72 · 26.9% peak3,376.57 · 23.5% peak3,376.57 · 23.5% peak690.35 · 4.8% peak690.35 · 4.8% peak426.45 · 3.0% peak426.45 · 3.0% peak527.93 · 3.7% peak527.93 · 3.7% peak2,475.25 · 17.2% peak2,475.25 · 17.2% peak643.36 · 4.5% peak643.36 · 4.5% peak3,844.96 · 26.8% peak3,844.96 · 26.8% peak784.67 · 5.5% peak784.67 · 5.5% peak567.91 · 4.0% peak567.91 · 4.0% peak2,072.53 · 14.4% peak2,072.53 · 14.4% peak333.48 · 2.3% peak333.48 · 2.3% peak646.92 · 4.5% peak646.92 · 4.5% peak242.53 · 1.7% peak242.53 · 1.7% peak550.42 · 3.8% peak550.42 · 3.8% peak1,464.78 · 10.2% peak1,464.78 · 10.2% peak601.01 · 4.2% peak601.01 · 4.2% peak1,188.47 · 8.3% peak1,188.47 · 8.3% peak238.21 · 1.7% peak238.21 · 1.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 45027 · peak 14350 · CV 1.58

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0027 · skew=-0.39 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.60 (mesokurtic)65320 1-58.55bpbin -58.55bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -58.55bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3-49.00bpbin -49.00bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -49.00bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak-39.45bp 2-29.90bpbin -29.90bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -29.90bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-20.35bpbin -20.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -20.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-10.80bpbin -10.80bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -10.80bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 4-1.25bpbin -1.25bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -1.25bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 68.30bpbin 8.30bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 8.30bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 117.85bpbin 17.85bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 17.85bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 327.40bpbin 27.40bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 27.40bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak36.95bp 146.50bpbin 46.50bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 46.50bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.39 · kurt=-0.36 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$7.1065
Mid price
$7.1051
24h change
-1.18%
Mark–mid spread
1.97 bps
Prev-day close
$7.1914

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.21)
μ MEAN7.1604$95% CI: [7.1476$, 7.1732$]
σ STD DEV0.0327$σ² = 10.709×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.46%
med MEDIAN7.1696$Q₁ 7.1283$ · Q₃ 7.1858$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.1155$ · IQR 0.0575$ (1.349σ→0.0441$)
min 7.1000$Q₁ 7.1283$med 7.1696$Q₃ 7.1858$max 7.2155$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.267approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.213platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.28
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.77
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.53
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-15.70
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.046981%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.168
σᵣ STD / h0.279997%σ²ᵣ = 0.078×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.96×
σ ANNUALISED26.21%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.280%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-15.70negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-12.66downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.42approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.15mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.81
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-411.55%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.48%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.483%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.599%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.559%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.60%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.483%VaR₉₉−0.599%ES₉₅−0.559%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK721.55$
−1.60% drawdown over 16h
710.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.24× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.63% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
38.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.146 · within band
Bollinger upper
$7.2171
Bollinger MA
$7.1533
Bollinger lower
$7.0894

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.45 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.450negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.156lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.693persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-8.298significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.693
H = 0.693PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.450k=2-0.156k=3+0.255k=4-0.019k=5-0.2210+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.30)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.45 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.83very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.30)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$321.61k
Open interest (USD)
$1.36M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.24x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.51% · worst -0.63% · typical |Δ| 0.21%MILD BEARISH -1.13%BEST+0.51%15hWORST-0.63%07hTYPICAL |Δ|0.21%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.13%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.08%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.49%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.53%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.13%+0.37%-1.24%0.06% · 12h0.06% · 12h0.06%12h-0.32% · 13h-0.32% · 13h-0.32%13h0.13% · 14h0.13% · 14h0.13%14h0.51% · 15h0.51% · 15h0.51%15h★ BEST-0.48% · 16h-0.48% · 16h-0.48%16h0.07% · 17h0.07% · 17h0.07%17h-0.03% · 18h-0.03% · 18h-0.03%18h0.11% · 19h0.11% · 19h0.11%19h-0.02% · 20h-0.02% · 20h-0.02%20h0.24% · 21h0.24% · 21h0.24%21h-0.48% · 22h-0.48% · 22h-0.48%22h0.07% · 23h0.07% · 23h0.07%23h-0.31% · 00h-0.31% · 00h-0.31%00h-0.09% · 01h-0.09% · 01h-0.09%01h0.06% · 02h0.06% · 02h0.06%02h0.03% · 03h0.03% · 03h0.03%03h-0.46% · 04h-0.46% · 04h-0.46%04h0.03% · 05h0.03% · 05h0.03%05h0.28% · 06h0.28% · 06h0.28%06h-0.63% · 07h-0.63% · 07h-0.63%07h▼ WORST0.25% · 08h0.25% · 08h0.25%08h0.15% · 09h0.15% · 09h0.15%09h-0.17% · 10h-0.17% · 10h-0.17%10h-0.11% · 11h-0.11% · 11h-0.11%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.49%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 0.51% · worst -0.63% · typical |Δ| 0.212%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.13%)FINAL-1.13%MAX DD-1.61%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.37%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9887 · peak 1.0037 · range [0.9876, 1.0037]1.00370.9876break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0037UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.61% · moderate0%-1.61%▼ TROUGH -1.61%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.61%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.32%bar 3-4 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.61%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9887 (-1.13%) · max DD -1.61% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-17.69 · σ=19.07UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -10.57 (+0.37σ vs μ)53.4126.710.00-26.71-53.41μ = -17.69-1.79-1.79-5.57-5.5714.8614.867.807.80-7.53-7.53-7.84-7.84-7.38-7.38-22.62-22.62-35.36-35.36-29.63-29.63-48.52-48.52-48.49-48.49-53.41-53.41-9.03-9.03-30.44-30.44-20.61-20.61-15.46-15.46-4.44-4.44-10.57-10.57v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -10.572 · range [-53.41, 14.86] · μ -17.687 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=27.5982 · σ=5.3832 · range [20.1067, 36.3621] · R²=0.034▼ FALLING -1.56%σ EXTREME 19.51%LAST 32.408236.362132.298328.234424.170620.1067μ = 27.5982max 36.3621min 20.1067dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 32.41% · range [20.11%, 36.36%] · μ 27.60% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.426 · σ=0.152MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.544 (-0.78σ vs μ)0.6290.3150.000-0.315-0.629μ = -0.426-0.440-0.440-0.407-0.407-0.439-0.439-0.546-0.546-0.136-0.136-0.395-0.395-0.532-0.532-0.521-0.521-0.607-0.607-0.629-0.629-0.300-0.300-0.249-0.249-0.321-0.321-0.104-0.104-0.361-0.361-0.600-0.600-0.418-0.418-0.536-0.536-0.544-0.544v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.544 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.7253
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6958
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.7252
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0825
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2046
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6707
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1374
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0326
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8338
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0059
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.2768
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0228
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.307 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.77e-6 · top T=3.00h (47.6%) · top-3 cover 74.9%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈3.0cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.4e-53.3e-52.2e-51.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.94e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.94e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.68e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.68e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.51e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.51e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.78e-6 · 6.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.78e-6 · 6.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.12e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.12e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.35e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.35e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.33e-6 · 6.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.33e-6 · 6.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.44e-5 · 47.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.44e-5 · 47.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.09e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.09e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.92e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.92e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.91e-5 · 20.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.91e-5 · 20.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.17e-6 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.17e-6 · 6.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 47.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.324e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-65.87×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -21.94400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.010
annualized -21.94
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -645% · APY -100% · Sharpe -20.61σ ann 31% · Sortino -16.66 · n 4999
-2473%-1971%-1469%-967%-465%38%-644.9%APR (simple)-99.8%APY (compound)31.3%Ann. vol σ-2061.1%Sharpe (ann)-1666.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
6.8116.9437.0757.2077.3397.471t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:08 UTC
Snapshot age
2.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:12 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5fefe420b591b4c5bad96870f4a27417ae8379fbc80224843f9418f49835698d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,503HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.69

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.12K
bid $939 · ask $2.18K
Depth within 10bp
$5.63K
bid $1.82K · ask $3.80K
Depth within 50bp
$34.85K
bid $10.38K · ask $24.46K
Mid price
7.105150
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.358
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.657
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-etc/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K7.10804.03bp7.10812FILLED
BUY$10.00K7.113311.42bp7.11667FILLED
BUY$100.00K7.137144.90bp7.199120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K7.10194.56bp7.09934FILLED
SELL$10.00K7.092118.33bp7.084112FILLED
SELL$100.00K7.078837.06bp7.043020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-etc/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$7.0000–$8.0000★25$45.03K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-etc/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.285 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$28.45K
real volume
Sell weight
$15.84K
real volume
Net delta
$12.60K
buyers net
Imbalance
28.46%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
28.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-etc/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 0.72% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms7.2070→7.15530.717%1
#22026-06-14 07:00:00Z0ms7.1451→7.10000.631%1

/api/asset/hl-etc/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
31.29%
σ per bar = 0.000136
Mean return (annualised)
-644.90%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-20.61
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.23%
peak 7.18 → trough 7.09 over 3718 bars

/api/asset/hl-etc/risk · same metrics, JSON