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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

AVAX

AVAX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-avax · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.39%
realized vol (ann.)
28.15%
max drawdown
0.66%
sharpe
-10.54
ulcer index
0.29%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.22%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1009.04
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.62%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-482.04
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.39%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-3.85%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 36%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-avax/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$6.639
24h Δ · live
-0.39%
24h vol · live
$1.5M
AVAX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=6.6884 · σ=0.0307 · range [6.6396, 6.7506] · R²=0.250▼ FALLING -0.40%σ LOW 0.46%LAST 6.63966.75066.72296.69516.66736.6396μ = 6.6884max 6.7506min 6.6396dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $6.64
Funding direction · live
Long fee 44.9%Short fee 55.1%SHORT FEE55.1%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.992 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
44.9%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
55.1%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000439% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=225,634 · μ=9025.4 · σ=7472.5 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1209,32218,64527,96737,289μ = 902537,28950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 37289 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.3s
$mark $
$6.6386
$mid $
$6.6388
◉prev-day close
$6.6646
Δ24h Δ %
-0.390%
$24h vol $
$1.50M
◐open interest $
$22.25M
%funding (1h)
-0.000439%
%funding (yr)
-3.85%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=6.6884 · σ=0.0307 · range [6.6396, 6.7506] · R²=0.250▼ FALLING -0.40%σ LOW 0.46%LAST 6.63966.75066.72296.69516.66736.6396μ = 6.6884max 6.7506min 6.6396dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $6.6386 · 24h -0.39% · range $[6.6396, 6.7506]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [6.6200, 6.7703] · σ=0.0307 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=42%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 6.6396 vs OPEN 6.6410 (-0.02%)&#9660; CLOSE 6.63966.77036.73276.69516.65766.6200μ close = 6.6884O6.641 H6.672 L6.640 C6.666 (+0.38%)O6.641 H6.672 L6.640 C6.666 (+0.38%)O6.669 H6.691 L6.661 C6.679 (+0.15%)O6.669 H6.691 L6.661 C6.679 (+0.15%)O6.675 H6.681 L6.660 C6.671 (-0.07%)O6.675 H6.681 L6.660 C6.671 (-0.07%)O6.671 H6.690 L6.668 C6.685 (+0.21%)O6.671 H6.690 L6.668 C6.685 (+0.21%)0.9%O6.687 H6.756 L6.680 C6.751 (+0.95%)O6.687 H6.756 L6.680 C6.751 (+0.95%)O6.753 H6.765 L6.673 C6.709 (-0.65%)O6.753 H6.765 L6.673 C6.709 (-0.65%)O6.712 H6.722 L6.680 C6.691 (-0.31%)O6.712 H6.722 L6.680 C6.691 (-0.31%)O6.691 H6.715 L6.688 C6.701 (+0.14%)O6.691 H6.715 L6.688 C6.701 (+0.14%)O6.701 H6.729 L6.688 C6.710 (+0.13%)O6.701 H6.729 L6.688 C6.710 (+0.13%)O6.709 H6.716 L6.694 C6.714 (+0.07%)O6.709 H6.716 L6.694 C6.714 (+0.07%)O6.715 H6.770 L6.699 C6.745 (+0.44%)O6.715 H6.770 L6.699 C6.745 (+0.44%)O6.748 H6.749 L6.716 C6.716 (-0.47%)O6.748 H6.749 L6.716 C6.716 (-0.47%)O6.716 H6.728 L6.701 C6.712 (-0.06%)O6.716 H6.728 L6.701 C6.712 (-0.06%)O6.714 H6.714 L6.690 C6.697 (-0.24%)O6.714 H6.714 L6.690 C6.697 (-0.24%)O6.698 H6.726 L6.685 C6.704 (+0.08%)O6.698 H6.726 L6.685 C6.704 (+0.08%)O6.702 H6.726 L6.697 C6.706 (+0.05%)O6.702 H6.726 L6.697 C6.706 (+0.05%)O6.707 H6.723 L6.696 C6.715 (+0.12%)O6.707 H6.723 L6.696 C6.715 (+0.12%)O6.718 H6.718 L6.660 C6.670 (-0.70%)O6.718 H6.718 L6.660 C6.670 (-0.70%)O6.670 H6.680 L6.645 C6.673 (+0.05%)O6.670 H6.680 L6.645 C6.673 (+0.05%)O6.673 H6.691 L6.650 C6.651 (-0.32%)O6.673 H6.691 L6.650 C6.651 (-0.32%)O6.653 H6.656 L6.636 C6.650 (-0.05%)O6.653 H6.656 L6.636 C6.650 (-0.05%)O6.652 H6.663 L6.642 C6.647 (-0.08%)O6.652 H6.663 L6.642 C6.647 (-0.08%)O6.644 H6.671 L6.620 C6.666 (+0.34%)O6.644 H6.671 L6.620 C6.666 (+0.34%)O6.668 H6.677 L6.640 C6.641 (-0.40%)O6.668 H6.677 L6.640 C6.641 (-0.40%)O6.641 H6.647 L6.630 C6.640 (-0.02%)O6.641 H6.647 L6.630 C6.640 (-0.02%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=225,634 · μ=9025.4 · σ=7472.5 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1209,32218,64527,96737,289μ = 90253,157.17 · 8.5% peak3,157.17 · 8.5% peak4,357.58 · 11.7% peak4,357.58 · 11.7% peak4,100.52 · 11.0% peak4,100.52 · 11.0% peak11,030.1 · 29.6% peak11,030.1 · 29.6% peak15,832.31 · 42.5% peak15,832.31 · 42.5% peak37,28937,289 · 100.0% peak37,289 · 100.0% peak6,414.91 · 17.2% peak6,414.91 · 17.2% peak2,999.34 · 8.0% peak2,999.34 · 8.0% peak10,485.94 · 28.1% peak10,485.94 · 28.1% peak6,426.08 · 17.2% peak6,426.08 · 17.2% peak9,854.58 · 26.4% peak9,854.58 · 26.4% peak6,161.74 · 16.5% peak6,161.74 · 16.5% peak8,580.26 · 23.0% peak8,580.26 · 23.0% peak8,653.18 · 23.2% peak8,653.18 · 23.2% peak7,079.22 · 19.0% peak7,079.22 · 19.0% peak5,708.05 · 15.3% peak5,708.05 · 15.3% peak9,759.56 · 26.2% peak9,759.56 · 26.2% peak24,372.72 · 65.4% peak24,372.72 · 65.4% peak9,820.68 · 26.3% peak9,820.68 · 26.3% peak7,911.93 · 21.2% peak7,911.93 · 21.2% peak7,074.22 · 19.0% peak7,074.22 · 19.0% peak6,019.55 · 16.1% peak6,019.55 · 16.1% peak7,146.41 · 19.2% peak7,146.41 · 19.2% peak2,503.14 · 6.7% peak2,503.14 · 6.7% peak2,896.08 · 7.8% peak2,896.08 · 7.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 225634 · peak 37289 · CV 0.83

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0033 · skew=0.52 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.01 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 2-60.36bpbin -60.36bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -60.36bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 1-46.61bpbin -46.61bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -46.61bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 3-32.85bpbin -32.85bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -32.85bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 2-19.10bpbin -19.10bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -19.10bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 4-5.35bpbin -5.35bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -5.35bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 78.41bpbin 8.41bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 8.41bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 322.16bpbin 22.16bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 22.16bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak35.91bp 149.67bpbin 49.67bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 49.67bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak63.42bp77.17bp 190.92bpbin 90.92bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 90.92bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.51 · kurt=1.34 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$6.6386
Mid price
$6.6388
24h change
-0.39%
Mark–mid spread
0.30 bps
Prev-day close
$6.6646

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN6.6884$95% CI: [6.6764$, 6.7004$]
σ STD DEV0.0307$σ² = 9.404×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.46%
med MEDIAN6.6914$Q₁ 6.6662$ · Q₃ 6.7100$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.1110$ · IQR 0.0438$ (1.349σ→0.0414$)
min 6.6396$Q₁ 6.6662$med 6.6914$Q₃ 6.7100$max 6.7506$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.108approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.925mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.94
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.62
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-4.47
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.016659%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.048
σᵣ STD / h0.348774%σ²ᵣ = 0.122×10⁻⁴ · CV = 20.94×
σ ANNUALISED32.64%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.349%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-4.47negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-4.56downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-88.75drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.54right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.97leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.02
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -88.75
EXPECTED EDGE-145.94%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.59%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.587%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.660%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.645%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.64%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.587%VaR₉₉−0.660%ES₉₅−0.645%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 20h duration
PEAK675.06$
−1.64% drawdown over 20h
663.96$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.12× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.67% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
43.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.106 · within band
Bollinger upper
$6.7491
Bollinger MA
$6.6879
Bollinger lower
$6.6267

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.247within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.092lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.864strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.770significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.864
H = 0.864STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.247k=2-0.092k=3-0.040k=4+0.050k=5-0.1630+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.77)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.97very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.77)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.50M
Open interest (USD)
$22.25M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.07x
1h funding
-0.000439%
Funding (annualised)
-3.85%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.98% · worst -0.67% · typical |Δ| 0.25%MILD BEARISH -0.40%BEST+0.98%15hWORST-0.67%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.25%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.40%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.94%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.57%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.40%+1.26%-0.40%0.20% · 12h0.20% · 12h0.20%12h-0.13% · 13h-0.13% · 13h-0.13%13h0.21% · 14h0.21% · 14h0.21%14h0.98% · 15h0.98% · 15h0.98%15h★ BEST-0.62% · 16h-0.62% · 16h-0.62%16h-0.26% · 17h-0.26% · 17h-0.26%17h0.14% · 18h0.14% · 18h0.14%18h0.14% · 19h0.14% · 19h0.14%19h0.06% · 20h0.06% · 20h0.06%20h0.45% · 21h0.45% · 21h0.45%21h-0.42% · 22h-0.42% · 22h-0.42%22h-0.06% · 23h-0.06% · 23h-0.06%23h-0.22% · 00h-0.22% · 00h-0.22%00h0.09% · 01h0.09% · 01h0.09%01h0.03% · 02h0.03% · 02h0.03%02h0.14% · 03h0.14% · 03h0.14%03h-0.67% · 04h-0.67% · 04h-0.67%04h▼ WORST0.04% · 05h0.04% · 05h0.04%05h-0.33% · 06h-0.33% · 06h-0.33%06h-0.02% · 07h-0.02% · 07h-0.02%07h-0.05% · 08h-0.05% · 08h-0.05%08h0.29% · 09h0.29% · 09h0.29%09h-0.38% · 10h-0.38% · 10h-0.38%10h-0.02% · 11h-0.02% · 11h-0.02%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.10%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 0.98% · worst -0.67% · typical |Δ| 0.248%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.41%)FINAL-0.41%MAX DD-1.65%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.26%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9959 · peak 1.0126 · range [0.9959, 1.0126]1.01260.9959break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0126UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.65% · moderate0%-1.65%▼ TROUGH -1.65%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.65%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.13%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.65%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9959 (-0.41%) · max DD -1.65% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-13.54 · σ=21.84UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -32.14 (-0.85σ vs μ)45.6322.810.00-22.81-45.63μ = -13.5410.8110.819.089.0817.0317.0312.7312.73-3.78-3.785.185.1817.0217.02-2.38-2.38-5.06-5.06-6.49-6.49-31.65-31.65-35.34-35.34-29.89-29.89-33.91-33.91-40.66-40.66-45.63-45.63-34.32-34.32-27.79-27.79-32.14-32.14v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -32.142 · range [-45.63, 17.03] · μ -13.537 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=32.5283 · σ=10.0050 · range [20.0156, 50.9746] · R²=0.574▼ FALLING -55.42%σ EXTREME 30.76%LAST 22.724850.974643.234935.495127.755320.0156μ = 32.5283max 50.9746min 20.0156dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 22.72% · range [20.02%, 50.97%] · μ 32.53% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.295 · σ=0.200MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.432 (-0.69σ vs μ)0.6460.3230.000-0.323-0.646μ = -0.295-0.215-0.215-0.216-0.216-0.199-0.199-0.290-0.2900.2620.262-0.379-0.379-0.311-0.311-0.262-0.262-0.343-0.343-0.420-0.4200.0300.030-0.229-0.229-0.389-0.389-0.381-0.381-0.530-0.530-0.646-0.646-0.185-0.185-0.462-0.462-0.432-0.432v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.432 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
5.0611
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0796
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.8890
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7197
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6616
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4564
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4485
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0562
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1742
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2403
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.643 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.40e-5 · top T=2.00h (33.7%) · top-3 cover 76.5%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)5.7e-54.3e-52.8e-51.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.15e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.15e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.10e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.10e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.28e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.28e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.00e-5 · 17.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.00e-5 · 17.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.91e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.91e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.23e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.23e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.37e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.37e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.20e-5 · 24.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.20e-5 · 24.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.16e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.16e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.02e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.02e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.18e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.18e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.67e-5 · 33.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.67e-5 · 33.7% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 33.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.682e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-144.40×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -42.08400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.018
annualized -42.08
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -39.34σ ann 27% · Sortino -30.31 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4721%-3770%-2820%-1869%-918%33%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)27.2%Ann. vol σ-3934.2%Sharpe (ann)-3031.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
6.3596.4866.6146.7416.8686.995t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:03 UTC
Snapshot age
3.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:06 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2a5f8505ce932126c4b9b07885a3dba1c23874f9043c448fd18338cc22b51556 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$1.14K
bid $1000 · ask $138
Depth within 5bp
$67.31K
bid $27.17K · ask $40.13K
Depth within 10bp
$127.75K
bid $37.64K · ask $90.11K
Depth within 50bp
$127.75K
bid $37.64K · ask $90.11K
Mid price
6.638850
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.410
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.115
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-avax/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K6.63961.15bp6.63983FILLED
BUY$10.00K6.64011.89bp6.64068FILLED
BUY$100.00K6.64204.78bp6.643420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K6.63830.83bp6.63792FILLED
SELL$10.00K6.63712.56bp6.63649FILLED
SELL$100.00K6.63594.40bp6.634620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-4.393e-6
-0.00044% / hr
Annualised APR
-3.851%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
94.8d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
94.8d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE3.851%94.8d2.60y
SHORTPAY-3.851%94.8d2.60y

/api/asset/hl-avax/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$6.0000–$7.0000★25$225.63K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-avax/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.097 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$100.50K
real volume
Sell weight
$121.98K
real volume
Net delta
$21.48K
sellers net
Imbalance
-9.65%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
9.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-avax/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 0.95% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h6.7153→6.65120.955%3
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h6.7506→6.69140.877%3
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms6.7445→6.69750.697%1

/api/asset/hl-avax/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
27.24%
σ per bar = 0.000119
Mean return (annualised)
-1071.87%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-39.34
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.53%
peak 6.72 → trough 6.62 over 3207 bars

/api/asset/hl-avax/risk · same metrics, JSON