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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GAS

GAS-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-gas · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.13%
realized vol (ann.)
43.77%
max drawdown
0.70%
sharpe
59.06
ulcer index
0.27%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.20%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
9709.04
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.59%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.13
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
4371.19
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.13
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.13%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-120.33%
signalLONGconfidence 44%suggested side: BUY
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 34.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-gas/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.124
24h Δ · live
0.13%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
GAS · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.1219 · σ=0.0038 · range [1.1130, 1.1306] · R²=0.150▲ RISING +0.12%σ LOW 0.34%LAST 1.12341.13061.12621.12181.11741.1130μ = 1.1219max 1.1306min 1.1130dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.15μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.12
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.8%Short fee 50.2%SHORT FEE50.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.03% (99.97pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.013736% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=45,633 · μ=1825.3 · σ=900.9 · CV=0.49STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1201,3132,6253,9385,251μ = 18255,250.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 5251 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.0s
$mark $
$1.124
$mid $
$1.1241
◉prev-day close
$1.1225
Δ24h Δ %
+0.134%
$24h vol $
$47.07k
◐open interest $
$151.07k
%funding (1h)
-0.013736%
%funding (yr)
-120.33%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.1219 · σ=0.0038 · range [1.1130, 1.1306] · R²=0.150▲ RISING +0.12%σ LOW 0.34%LAST 1.12341.13061.12621.12181.11741.1130μ = 1.1219max 1.1306min 1.1130dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.15μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.1240 · 24h 0.13% · range $[1.1130, 1.1306]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [1.1088, 1.1327] · σ=0.0038 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=39%BULLISH +0.38%CLOSE 1.1234 vs OPEN 1.1191 (+0.38%)&#9650; CLOSE 1.12341.13271.12671.12081.11481.1088μ close = 1.1219O1.119 H1.123 L1.118 C1.122 (+0.27%)O1.119 H1.123 L1.118 C1.122 (+0.27%)O1.122 H1.124 L1.119 C1.122 (+0.04%)O1.122 H1.124 L1.119 C1.122 (+0.04%)O1.121 H1.125 L1.120 C1.122 (+0.11%)O1.121 H1.125 L1.120 C1.122 (+0.11%)O1.123 H1.125 L1.119 C1.124 (+0.05%)O1.123 H1.125 L1.119 C1.124 (+0.05%)O1.123 H1.132 L1.122 C1.131 (+0.68%)O1.123 H1.132 L1.122 C1.131 (+0.68%)-0.7%O1.131 H1.131 L1.117 C1.123 (-0.69%)O1.131 H1.131 L1.117 C1.123 (-0.69%)O1.123 H1.126 L1.119 C1.119 (-0.30%)O1.123 H1.126 L1.119 C1.119 (-0.30%)O1.120 H1.124 L1.118 C1.120 (+0.06%)O1.120 H1.124 L1.118 C1.120 (+0.06%)O1.120 H1.129 L1.117 C1.125 (+0.39%)O1.120 H1.129 L1.117 C1.125 (+0.39%)O1.125 H1.125 L1.120 C1.121 (-0.33%)O1.125 H1.125 L1.120 C1.121 (-0.33%)O1.122 H1.132 L1.119 C1.130 (+0.67%)O1.122 H1.132 L1.119 C1.130 (+0.67%)O1.128 H1.133 L1.125 C1.125 (-0.22%)O1.128 H1.133 L1.125 C1.125 (-0.22%)O1.125 H1.126 L1.121 C1.124 (-0.08%)O1.125 H1.126 L1.121 C1.124 (-0.08%)O1.125 H1.125 L1.119 C1.121 (-0.37%)O1.125 H1.125 L1.119 C1.121 (-0.37%)O1.121 H1.126 L1.119 C1.124 (+0.29%)O1.121 H1.126 L1.119 C1.124 (+0.29%)O1.123 H1.126 L1.121 C1.121 (-0.17%)O1.123 H1.126 L1.121 C1.121 (-0.17%)O1.123 H1.125 L1.120 C1.123 (-0.02%)O1.123 H1.125 L1.120 C1.123 (-0.02%)O1.124 H1.124 L1.116 C1.119 (-0.44%)O1.124 H1.124 L1.116 C1.119 (-0.44%)O1.119 H1.120 L1.112 C1.119 (-0.04%)O1.119 H1.120 L1.112 C1.119 (-0.04%)O1.118 H1.121 L1.115 C1.115 (-0.26%)O1.118 H1.121 L1.115 C1.115 (-0.26%)O1.116 H1.116 L1.109 C1.113 (-0.29%)O1.116 H1.116 L1.109 C1.113 (-0.29%)O1.113 H1.120 L1.112 C1.117 (+0.31%)O1.113 H1.120 L1.112 C1.117 (+0.31%)O1.118 H1.125 L1.113 C1.124 (+0.49%)O1.118 H1.125 L1.113 C1.124 (+0.49%)O1.123 H1.128 L1.121 C1.121 (-0.17%)O1.123 H1.128 L1.121 C1.121 (-0.17%)O1.122 H1.125 L1.122 C1.123 (+0.13%)O1.122 H1.125 L1.122 C1.123 (+0.13%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=45,633 · μ=1825.3 · σ=900.9 · CV=0.49STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1201,3132,6253,9385,251μ = 18255,250.65,250.6 · 100.0% peak5,250.6 · 100.0% peak1,663.4 · 31.7% peak1,663.4 · 31.7% peak2,109.7 · 40.2% peak2,109.7 · 40.2% peak1,511.9 · 28.8% peak1,511.9 · 28.8% peak1,528.7 · 29.1% peak1,528.7 · 29.1% peak1,739.3 · 33.1% peak1,739.3 · 33.1% peak1,298.9 · 24.7% peak1,298.9 · 24.7% peak1,773.9 · 33.8% peak1,773.9 · 33.8% peak1,674.6 · 31.9% peak1,674.6 · 31.9% peak1,383 · 26.3% peak1,383 · 26.3% peak1,361 · 25.9% peak1,361 · 25.9% peak1,632 · 31.1% peak1,632 · 31.1% peak1,991 · 37.9% peak1,991 · 37.9% peak3,851.7 · 73.4% peak3,851.7 · 73.4% peak1,082.4 · 20.6% peak1,082.4 · 20.6% peak1,655.5 · 31.5% peak1,655.5 · 31.5% peak1,454.6 · 27.7% peak1,454.6 · 27.7% peak1,688.1 · 32.2% peak1,688.1 · 32.2% peak1,748.7 · 33.3% peak1,748.7 · 33.3% peak1,318.8 · 25.1% peak1,318.8 · 25.1% peak2,185.5 · 41.6% peak2,185.5 · 41.6% peak1,494.3 · 28.5% peak1,494.3 · 28.5% peak1,914 · 36.5% peak1,914 · 36.5% peak1,623.7 · 30.9% peak1,623.7 · 30.9% peak697.7 · 13.3% peak697.7 · 13.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 45633 · peak 5251 · CV 0.49

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0035 · skew=0.37 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.68 (mesokurtic)54310 1-63.09bpbin -63.09bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -63.09bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-50.80bp 3-38.52bpbin -38.52bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -38.52bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 5-26.23bpbin -26.23bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -26.23bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-13.95bpbin -13.95bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -13.95bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-1.66bpbin -1.66bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -1.66bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 210.63bpbin 10.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 10.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 322.91bpbin 22.91bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 22.91bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 235.20bpbin 35.20bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 35.20bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak47.48bp 259.77bpbin 59.77bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 59.77bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 172.05bpbin 72.05bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 72.05bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.40 · kurt=-0.41 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.124
Mid price
$1.1241
24h change
+0.13%
Mark–mid spread
0.89 bps
Prev-day close
$1.1225

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1.1219$95% CI: [1.1204$, 1.1234$]
σ STD DEV0.0038$σ² = 0.148×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.34%
med MEDIAN1.1220$Q₁ 1.1203$ · Q₃ 1.1238$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0176$ · IQR 0.0035$ (1.349σ→0.0052$)
min 1.1130$Q₁ 1.1203$med 1.1220$Q₃ 1.1238$max 1.1306$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.005approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.516mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.48
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.58
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDGOOD · SR=1.24
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.004824%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.013
σᵣ STD / h0.362939%σ²ᵣ = 0.132×10⁻⁴ · CV = 75.23×
σ ANNUALISED33.97%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.363%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)1.24good · industry threshold
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)1.50good downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)27.15exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.43approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.22mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.21
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 27.15
EXPECTED EDGE+42.26%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.40%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.404%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.629%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.555%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.56%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.404%VaR₉₉−0.629%ES₉₅−0.555%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK113.06$
−1.56% drawdown over 16h
111.30$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.37× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.56× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.58% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
53.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.634 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.1289
Bollinger MA
$1.1214
Bollinger lower
$1.1139

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.281within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.010lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.909strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.017significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.909
H = 0.909STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.281k=2+0.010k=3-0.252k=4+0.192k=5-0.3770+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.02)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.02)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$47.07k
Open interest (USD)
$151.07k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.31x
1h funding
-0.013736%
Funding (annualised)
-120.33%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
3.663× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.831× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.916×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.78% · worst -0.69% · typical |Δ| 0.29%MILD BULLISH +0.12%BEST+0.78%21hWORST-0.69%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.29%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.12%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.68%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.57%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.12%+0.75%-0.81%-0.01% · 12h-0.01% · 12h-0.01%12h-0.01% · 13h-0.01% · 13h-0.01%13h0.18% · 14h0.18% · 14h0.18%14h0.59% · 15h0.59% · 15h0.59%15h-0.69% · 16h-0.69% · 16h-0.69%16h▼ WORST-0.30% · 17h-0.30% · 17h-0.30%17h0.08% · 18h0.08% · 18h0.08%18h0.39% · 19h0.39% · 19h0.39%19h-0.33% · 20h-0.33% · 20h-0.33%20h0.78% · 21h0.78% · 21h0.78%21h★ BEST-0.42% · 22h-0.42% · 22h-0.42%22h-0.08% · 23h-0.08% · 23h-0.08%23h-0.29% · 00h-0.29% · 00h-0.29%00h0.26% · 01h0.26% · 01h0.26%01h-0.20% · 02h-0.20% · 02h-0.20%02h0.11% · 03h0.11% · 03h0.11%03h-0.29% · 04h-0.29% · 04h-0.29%04h-0.06% · 05h-0.06% · 05h-0.06%05h-0.33% · 06h-0.33% · 06h-0.33%06h-0.19% · 07h-0.19% · 07h-0.19%07h0.34% · 08h0.34% · 08h0.34%08h0.62% · 09h0.62% · 09h0.62%09h-0.21% · 10h-0.21% · 10h-0.21%10h0.19% · 11h0.19% · 11h0.19%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.68%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.78% · worst -0.69% · typical |Δ| 0.290%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.10%FINAL+0.10%MAX DD-1.57%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.76%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0010 · peak 1.0076 · range [0.9918, 1.0076]1.00760.9918break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0076UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.57% · moderate0%-1.57%▼ TROUGH -1.57%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.57%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.02%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.57%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 1.0010 (0.10%) · max DD -1.57% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-11.98 · σ=26.51MIXED EDGELAST 17.19 (+1.10σ vs μ)93.9146.960.00-46.96-93.91μ = -11.98-8.64-8.64-5.40-5.408.278.27-8.29-8.29-2.05-2.056.696.6914.7114.711.751.75-2.72-2.721.571.57-38.84-38.84-34.60-34.60-33.37-33.37-34.80-34.80-93.91-93.91-25.54-25.543.653.656.776.7717.1917.19v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 17.186 · range [-93.91, 17.19] · μ -11.978 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=35.2507 · σ=10.6944 · range [15.0125, 50.4118] · R²=0.406▼ FALLING -14.41%σ EXTREME 30.34%LAST 34.856550.411841.562032.712223.862315.0125μ = 35.2507max 50.4118min 15.0125dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.41μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 34.86% · range [15.01%, 50.41%] · μ 35.25% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.321 · σ=0.304MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.009 (+1.02σ vs μ)0.7100.3550.000-0.355-0.710μ = -0.321-0.101-0.101-0.133-0.133-0.070-0.070-0.294-0.294-0.118-0.118-0.648-0.648-0.664-0.664-0.575-0.575-0.573-0.573-0.399-0.399-0.432-0.432-0.695-0.695-0.710-0.710-0.417-0.417-0.540-0.540-0.181-0.1810.3450.3450.1230.123-0.009-0.009v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.009 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.7751
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6787
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.8452
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0789
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.8432
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0529
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3138
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1580
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0269
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3045
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.688 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.61e-5 · top T=2.00h (43.1%) · top-3 cover 71.8%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)8.3e-56.2e-54.2e-52.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.88e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.88e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.71e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.71e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.21e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.21e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.93e-5 · 15.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.93e-5 · 15.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.38e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.38e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.46e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.46e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.61e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.61e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.37e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.37e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.82e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.82e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.89e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.89e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.34e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.34e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.33e-5 · 43.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.33e-5 · 43.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 43.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.931e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 15.24× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
15.24×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 6.96400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.003
annualized 6.96
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.05%
VaR 95%5%
0.08%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.14%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.07×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 244% · APY 955% · Sharpe 6.09σ ann 40% · Sortino 3.24 · n 4999
0%229%458%688%917%1146%243.6%APR (simple)955.2%APY (compound)40.0%Ann. vol σ609.4%Sharpe (ann)323.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.0661.0881.1091.1311.1531.175t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:51 UTC
Snapshot age
5.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:56 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b3e74c00317c1dc6ae743a38aa0f93931c70179574e4b22f2cd08bc7926e5455 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,519HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.7HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$4.05K
bid $3.37K · ask $680
Depth within 50bp
$31.31K
bid $17.86K · ask $13.45K
Mid price
1.124100
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
12.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.020
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.132
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gas/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.12518.57bp1.12553FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.126219.02bp1.127611FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.127732.08bp1.131320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.12337.31bp1.12313FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.122216.61bp1.121011FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.120928.62bp1.117320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.374e-4
-0.01374% / hr
Annualised APR
-120.414%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
3.0d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
3.0d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE120.414%3.0d30.3d
SHORTPAY-120.414%3.0d30.3d

/api/asset/hl-gas/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$45.63K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gas/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.282 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$14.49K
real volume
Sell weight
$25.89K
real volume
Net delta
$11.40K
sellers net
Imbalance
-28.22%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
28.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-gas/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 0.99% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h1.1306→1.11940.991%3
#22026-06-14 06:00:00Z1.0h1.1227→1.11300.864%2
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms1.1298→1.12090.788%1

/api/asset/hl-gas/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
39.98%
σ per bar = 0.000174
Mean return (annualised)
243.62%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
6.09
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.34%
peak 1.12 → trough 1.11 over 2265 bars

/api/asset/hl-gas/risk · same metrics, JSON