Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

XAI

XAI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-xai · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.62%
realized vol (ann.)
93.22%
max drawdown
1.36%
sharpe
-21.09
ulcer index
0.74%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.59%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2674.77
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.27%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1548.72
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
2.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.62%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-2.85%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 41%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 25.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-xai/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH606ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.008
24h Δ · live
-0.62%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
XAI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0081 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0080, 0.0082] · R²=0.113▼ FALLING -1.48%σ LOW 0.53%LAST 0.00800.00820.00810.00810.00800.0080μ = 0.0081max 0.0082min 0.0080dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 43.3%Short fee 56.7%SHORT FEE56.7%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.987 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
43.3%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
56.7%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000326% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=12,938,662 · μ=517546.5 · σ=787215.7 · CV=1.52BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=100685,4191,370,8392,056,2582,741,677μ = 5175462,741,677.350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2741677 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
606ms
$mark $
$0.008
$mid $
$0.008
◉prev-day close
$0.008
Δ24h Δ %
-0.622%
$24h vol $
$103.26k
◐open interest $
$419.84k
%funding (1h)
-0.000326%
%funding (yr)
-2.85%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0081 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0080, 0.0082] · R²=0.113▼ FALLING -1.48%σ LOW 0.53%LAST 0.00800.00820.00810.00810.00800.0080μ = 0.0081max 0.0082min 0.0080dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0080 · 24h -0.62% · range $[0.0080, 0.0082]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0080, 0.0083] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -1.11%CLOSE 0.0080 vs OPEN 0.0081 (-1.11%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00800.00830.00820.00810.00800.0080μ close = 0.0081O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.74%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.74%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.50%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.50%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)1.6%O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.61%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.61%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.62%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.62%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.62%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.62%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.00%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.00%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.62%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.62%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=12,938,662 · μ=517546.5 · σ=787215.7 · CV=1.52BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=100685,4191,370,8392,056,2582,741,677μ = 517546281,377.7 · 10.3% peak281,377.7 · 10.3% peak199,284.3 · 7.3% peak199,284.3 · 7.3% peak145,708.8 · 5.3% peak145,708.8 · 5.3% peak150,814.7 · 5.5% peak150,814.7 · 5.5% peak2,662,005.9 · 97.1% peak2,662,005.9 · 97.1% peak252,725.2 · 9.2% peak252,725.2 · 9.2% peak162,575.9 · 5.9% peak162,575.9 · 5.9% peak114,370.9 · 4.2% peak114,370.9 · 4.2% peak164,610.3 · 6.0% peak164,610.3 · 6.0% peak2,741,677.32,741,677.3 · 100.0% peak2,741,677.3 · 100.0% peak205,632.3 · 7.5% peak205,632.3 · 7.5% peak193,125.2 · 7.0% peak193,125.2 · 7.0% peak244,645.3 · 8.9% peak244,645.3 · 8.9% peak2,316,759.6 · 84.5% peak2,316,759.6 · 84.5% peak602,573.6 · 22.0% peak602,573.6 · 22.0% peak111,889.6 · 4.1% peak111,889.6 · 4.1% peak373,757.5 · 13.6% peak373,757.5 · 13.6% peak351,910.1 · 12.8% peak351,910.1 · 12.8% peak555,642.5 · 20.3% peak555,642.5 · 20.3% peak182,010.5 · 6.6% peak182,010.5 · 6.6% peak159,925.4 · 5.8% peak159,925.4 · 5.8% peak260,218.2 · 9.5% peak260,218.2 · 9.5% peak120,492 · 4.4% peak120,492 · 4.4% peak232,688 · 8.5% peak232,688 · 8.5% peak152,240.9 · 5.6% peak152,240.9 · 5.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 12938662 · peak 2741677 · CV 1.52

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0006 · σ=0.0058 · skew=0.43 (symmetric) · kurt=0.34 (mesokurtic)75420 2-111.94bpbin -111.94bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -111.94bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak-88.29bp 1-64.65bpbin -64.65bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -64.65bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 7-41.00bpbin -41.00bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -41.00bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 4-17.35bpbin -17.35bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -17.35bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 16.30bpbin 6.30bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 6.30bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 429.94bpbin 29.94bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 29.94bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 353.59bpbin 53.59bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 53.59bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 177.24bpbin 77.24bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 77.24bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak100.89bp124.53bp 1148.18bpbin 148.18bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 148.18bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.49 · kurt=0.53 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.008
Mid price
$0.008
24h change
-0.62%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.008

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0081$95% CI: [0.0081$, 0.0081$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.53%
med MEDIAN0.0081$Q₁ 0.0081$ · Q₃ 0.0081$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0002$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0080$Q₁ 0.0081$med 0.0081$Q₃ 0.0081$max 0.0082$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.248approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.349mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.00
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.44
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.69
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-9.28
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.062113%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.099
σᵣ STD / h0.626146%σ²ᵣ = 0.392×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.08×
σ ANNUALISED58.60%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.626%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-9.28negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-10.09downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.52right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.96mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.09
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-544.11%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.04%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.042%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.210%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.177%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.44%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.042%VaR₉₉−1.210%ES₉₅−1.177%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK0.82$
−2.44% drawdown over 11h
0.80$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.50% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
41.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.025 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0082
Bollinger MA
$0.0081
Bollinger lower
$0.0080

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.272within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.214lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.498random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.711fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.498
H = 0.498RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.272k=2-0.214k=3-0.070k=4+0.123k=5+0.0460+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.71)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.28moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.71)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$103.26k
Open interest (USD)
$419.84k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.25x
1h funding
-0.000326%
Funding (annualised)
-2.85%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.60% · worst -1.24% · typical |Δ| 0.51%BEARISH SESSION -1.49%BEST+1.60%01hWORST-1.24%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.51%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.49%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.62%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.37%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.49%+0.98%-1.49%-0.37% · 13h-0.37% · 13h-0.37%13h-0.25% · 14h-0.25% · 14h-0.25%14h0.37% · 15h0.37% · 15h0.37%15h0.49% · 16h0.49% · 16h0.49%16h-0.49% · 17h-0.49% · 17h-0.49%17h-0.37% · 18h-0.37% · 18h-0.37%18h0.37% · 19h0.37% · 19h0.37%19h-0.37% · 20h-0.37% · 20h-0.37%20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h-0.25% · 22h-0.25% · 22h-0.25%22h-0.25% · 23h-0.25% · 23h-0.25%23h0.00% · 00h0.00% · 00h·00h1.60% · 01h1.60% · 01h1.60%01h★ BEST-0.61% · 02h-0.61% · 02h-0.61%02h-0.12% · 03h-0.12% · 03h-0.12%03h-1.24% · 04h-1.24% · 04h-1.24%04h▼ WORST0.62% · 05h0.62% · 05h0.62%05h0.25% · 06h0.25% · 06h0.25%06h-1.12% · 07h-1.12% · 07h-1.12%07h0.75% · 08h0.75% · 08h0.75%08h0.37% · 09h0.37% · 09h0.37%09h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h-0.37% · 11h-0.37% · 11h-0.37%11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 58% down · 4% flat
9 up bars · 14 down · best 1.60% · worst -1.24% · typical |Δ| 0.505%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.52%)FINAL-1.52%MAX DD-2.47%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.97%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9848 · peak 1.0097 · range [0.9848, 1.0097]1.00970.9848break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0097UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.47% · moderate0%-2.47%▼ TROUGH -2.47%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.47%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.87%bar 6-13 · 8 bars · recovered#3 -0.62%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.47%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9848 (-1.52%) · max DD -2.47% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-5.50 · σ=17.78MIXED EDGELAST -31.69 (-1.47σ vs μ)46.3823.190.00-23.19-46.38μ = -5.50-22.77-22.774.404.40-0.00-0.004.034.03-22.68-22.68-14.88-14.880.000.0025.5425.5419.4419.447.387.38-10.23-10.233.923.927.817.81-46.38-46.38-15.72-15.72-6.53-6.538.058.05-14.20-14.20-31.69-31.69v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -31.691 · range [-46.38, 25.54] · μ -5.499 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=62.9451 · σ=20.1423 · range [33.5812, 92.5364] · R²=0.449▲ RISING +58.85%σ EXTREME 32.00%LAST 62.993592.536477.797663.058848.320033.5812μ = 62.9451max 92.5364min 33.5812dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 62.99% · range [33.58%, 92.54%] · μ 62.95% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.309 · σ=0.191MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.161 (+0.77σ vs μ)0.6720.3360.000-0.336-0.672μ = -0.3090.1390.139-0.112-0.112-0.147-0.147-0.440-0.440-0.441-0.441-0.672-0.672-0.595-0.595-0.102-0.102-0.398-0.398-0.293-0.293-0.150-0.150-0.310-0.310-0.258-0.258-0.352-0.352-0.492-0.492-0.365-0.365-0.338-0.338-0.385-0.385-0.161-0.161v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.161 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.0218
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3639
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.9864
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5534
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.2147
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0204
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4686
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6394
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2903
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6749
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0939
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.490 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.00e-5 · top T=3.43h (16.3%) · top-3 cover 44.6%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)7.8e-55.9e-53.9e-52.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 9.50e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.50e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.67e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.67e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.41e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.41e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.46e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.46e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.26e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.26e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.96e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.96e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.83e-5 · 16.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.83e-5 · 16.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.15e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.15e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.27e-5 · 15.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.27e-5 · 15.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.13e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.13e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.00e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.00e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.71e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.71e-5 · 11.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 16.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.794e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-15.30×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -9.89400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.004
annualized -9.89
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -15.49σ ann 101% · Sortino -5.44 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1858%-1462%-1066%-670%-274%121%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)101.2%Ann. vol σ-1548.6%Sharpe (ann)-543.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0080.0080.0080.0080.0080.009t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:43:09 UTC
Snapshot age
606ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:43:09 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e4a4824837f2bec2e7068f81617a8c1002eb33116011f93aea4bb8948100d1ae · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,316.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,668.15HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.7

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$16.15K
bid $6.51K · ask $9.64K
Mid price
0.007990
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
25.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.276
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.161
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xai/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00800518.22bp0.0080102FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00801329.28bp0.0080304FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.008185243.69bp0.01544020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00798012.52bp0.0079801FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00795148.57bp0.0078707FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.007443684.16bp0.00658020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-3.258e-6
-0.00033% / hr
Annualised APR
-2.856%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
127.9d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
127.9d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE2.856%127.9d3.50y
SHORTPAY-2.856%127.9d3.50y

/api/asset/hl-xai/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$12.94M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xai/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.472 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$9.31M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.34M
real volume
Net delta
$5.97M
buyers net
Imbalance
47.16%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
47.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-xai/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.95% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 02:00:00Z3.0h0.008190→0.0080301.954%4
#22026-06-14 11:00:00Z1.0h0.008100→0.0079901.358%2
#32026-06-14 07:00:00Z0ms0.008100→0.0080101.111%1

/api/asset/hl-xai/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
101.25%
σ per bar = 0.000442
Mean return (annualised)
-1567.90%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-15.49
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.68%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 3563 bars

/api/asset/hl-xai/risk · same metrics, JSON