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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

VIRTUAL

VIRTUAL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-virtual · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.78%
realized vol (ann.)
63.01%
max drawdown
1.32%
sharpe
-9.71
ulcer index
0.55%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.44%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1113.70
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.17%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-522.90
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.78%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.78%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-virtual/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.626
24h Δ · live
-2.78%
24h vol · live
$1.1M
VIRTUAL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.6393 · σ=0.0067 · range [0.6264, 0.6518] · R²=0.582▼ FALLING -2.26%σ NORMAL 1.05%LAST 0.62640.65180.64540.63910.63270.6264μ = 0.6393max 0.6518min 0.6264dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.63
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,740,010 · μ=69600.4 · σ=54750.3 · CV=0.79FADING -51% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=7052,092104,184156,276208,368μ = 69600208,368.150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 208368 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.3s
$mark $
$0.6264
$mid $
$0.6263
◉prev-day close
$0.6443
Δ24h Δ %
-2.780%
$24h vol $
$1.09M
◐open interest $
$5.93M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.6393 · σ=0.0067 · range [0.6264, 0.6518] · R²=0.582▼ FALLING -2.26%σ NORMAL 1.05%LAST 0.62640.65180.64540.63910.63270.6264μ = 0.6393max 0.6518min 0.6264dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.6264 · 24h -2.78% · range $[0.6264, 0.6518]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.6243, 0.6563] · σ=0.0067 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=40%BEARISH -1.83%CLOSE 0.6264 vs OPEN 0.6381 (-1.83%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.62640.65630.64830.64030.63230.6243μ close = 0.6393O0.638 H0.645 L0.638 C0.641 (+0.44%)O0.638 H0.645 L0.638 C0.641 (+0.44%)O0.641 H0.645 L0.638 C0.639 (-0.24%)O0.641 H0.645 L0.638 C0.639 (-0.24%)O0.640 H0.643 L0.638 C0.641 (+0.19%)O0.640 H0.643 L0.638 C0.641 (+0.19%)O0.641 H0.650 L0.641 C0.649 (+1.18%)O0.641 H0.650 L0.641 C0.649 (+1.18%)O0.649 H0.656 L0.646 C0.652 (+0.48%)O0.649 H0.656 L0.646 C0.652 (+0.48%)O0.652 H0.653 L0.638 C0.645 (-1.00%)O0.652 H0.653 L0.638 C0.645 (-1.00%)O0.645 H0.647 L0.639 C0.642 (-0.50%)O0.645 H0.647 L0.639 C0.642 (-0.50%)O0.641 H0.644 L0.639 C0.642 (+0.05%)O0.641 H0.644 L0.639 C0.642 (+0.05%)O0.642 H0.645 L0.640 C0.641 (-0.12%)O0.642 H0.645 L0.640 C0.641 (-0.12%)O0.641 H0.642 L0.640 C0.642 (+0.15%)O0.641 H0.642 L0.640 C0.642 (+0.15%)O0.642 H0.649 L0.639 C0.647 (+0.76%)O0.642 H0.649 L0.639 C0.647 (+0.76%)O0.647 H0.647 L0.643 C0.643 (-0.49%)O0.647 H0.647 L0.643 C0.643 (-0.49%)O0.643 H0.647 L0.642 C0.642 (-0.19%)O0.643 H0.647 L0.642 C0.642 (-0.19%)O0.643 H0.645 L0.641 C0.643 (-0.05%)O0.643 H0.645 L0.641 C0.643 (-0.05%)O0.643 H0.647 L0.641 C0.644 (+0.10%)O0.643 H0.647 L0.641 C0.644 (+0.10%)O0.643 H0.646 L0.640 C0.641 (-0.28%)O0.643 H0.646 L0.640 C0.641 (-0.28%)O0.641 H0.646 L0.641 C0.644 (+0.47%)O0.641 H0.646 L0.641 C0.644 (+0.47%)-1.5%O0.644 H0.644 L0.633 C0.634 (-1.52%)O0.644 H0.644 L0.633 C0.634 (-1.52%)O0.634 H0.635 L0.629 C0.634 (+0.06%)O0.634 H0.635 L0.629 C0.634 (+0.06%)O0.634 H0.637 L0.631 C0.632 (-0.33%)O0.634 H0.637 L0.631 C0.632 (-0.33%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.627 C0.628 (-0.56%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.627 C0.628 (-0.56%)O0.628 H0.633 L0.626 C0.630 (+0.23%)O0.628 H0.633 L0.626 C0.630 (+0.23%)O0.630 H0.634 L0.624 C0.632 (+0.39%)O0.630 H0.634 L0.624 C0.632 (+0.39%)O0.632 H0.634 L0.629 C0.629 (-0.47%)O0.632 H0.634 L0.629 C0.629 (-0.47%)O0.629 H0.629 L0.626 C0.626 (-0.41%)O0.629 H0.629 L0.626 C0.626 (-0.41%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,740,010 · μ=69600.4 · σ=54750.3 · CV=0.79FADING -51% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=7052,092104,184156,276208,368μ = 6960088,573.1 · 42.5% peak88,573.1 · 42.5% peak128,717.6 · 61.8% peak128,717.6 · 61.8% peak153,175.7 · 73.5% peak153,175.7 · 73.5% peak208,368.1208,368.1 · 100.0% peak208,368.1 · 100.0% peak78,489.2 · 37.7% peak78,489.2 · 37.7% peak202,360.5 · 97.1% peak202,360.5 · 97.1% peak85,447 · 41.0% peak85,447 · 41.0% peak76,334.7 · 36.6% peak76,334.7 · 36.6% peak40,239.6 · 19.3% peak40,239.6 · 19.3% peak46,688.8 · 22.4% peak46,688.8 · 22.4% peak41,252.4 · 19.8% peak41,252.4 · 19.8% peak16,662.2 · 8.0% peak16,662.2 · 8.0% peak20,756.7 · 10.0% peak20,756.7 · 10.0% peak35,933.1 · 17.2% peak35,933.1 · 17.2% peak26,899.2 · 12.9% peak26,899.2 · 12.9% peak26,794.1 · 12.9% peak26,794.1 · 12.9% peak49,951.9 · 24.0% peak49,951.9 · 24.0% peak64,134.8 · 30.8% peak64,134.8 · 30.8% peak99,195.7 · 47.6% peak99,195.7 · 47.6% peak28,601.3 · 13.7% peak28,601.3 · 13.7% peak34,337.1 · 16.5% peak34,337.1 · 16.5% peak28,121.3 · 13.5% peak28,121.3 · 13.5% peak103,730.4 · 49.8% peak103,730.4 · 49.8% peak50,553.1 · 24.3% peak50,553.1 · 24.3% peak4,692.4 · 2.3% peak4,692.4 · 2.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1740010 · peak 208368 · CV 0.79

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0011 · σ=0.0053 · skew=-0.22 (symmetric) · kurt=0.49 (mesokurtic)54310 1-144.93bpbin -144.93bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -144.93bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-121.89bp 1-98.84bpbin -98.84bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -98.84bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-75.80bp 5-52.76bpbin -52.76bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -52.76bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4-29.72bpbin -29.72bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -29.72bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 3-6.68bpbin -6.68bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -6.68bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 516.36bpbin 16.36bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 16.36bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 339.41bpbin 39.41bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 39.41bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 162.45bpbin 62.45bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 62.45bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak85.49bp 1108.53bpbin 108.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 108.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.25 · kurt=0.87 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.6264
Mid price
$0.6263
24h change
-2.78%
Mark–mid spread
1.92 bps
Prev-day close
$0.6443

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.6393$95% CI: [0.6367$, 0.6419$]
σ STD DEV0.0067$σ² = 0.454×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.05%
med MEDIAN0.6414$Q₁ 0.6339$ · Q₃ 0.6434$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0254$ · IQR 0.0095$ (1.349σ→0.0091$)
min 0.6264$Q₁ 0.6339$med 0.6414$Q₃ 0.6434$max 0.6518$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.368approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.930mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.96
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.77
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-15.64
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.095354%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.167
σᵣ STD / h0.570473%σ²ᵣ = 0.325×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.98×
σ ANNUALISED53.39%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.570%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-15.64negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-14.88downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.26approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.38leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.95
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-835.30%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.94%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.939%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.437%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.286%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.89%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.939%VaR₉₉−1.437%ES₉₅−1.286%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 20h duration
PEAK65.18$
−3.89% drawdown over 20h
62.64$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.37× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.53× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.05% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
36.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.053 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.6511
Bollinger MA
$0.6381
Bollinger lower
$0.6250

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.010within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.197lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.833strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.660significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.833
H = 0.833STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.010k=2-0.197k=3-0.092k=4-0.120k=5-0.1280+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.66)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.68very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.66)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.09M
Open interest (USD)
$5.93M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.18x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.20% · worst -1.56% · typical |Δ| 0.43%MILD BEARISH -2.29%BEST+1.20%14hWORST-1.56%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.43%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.29%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.27% · Σ -2.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.17% · Σ +1.38%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.47%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.29%+1.68%-2.29%-0.22% · 12h-0.22% · 12h-0.22%12h0.21% · 13h0.21% · 13h0.21%13h1.20% · 14h1.20% · 14h1.20%14h★ BEST0.49% · 15h0.49% · 15h0.49%15h-1.01% · 16h-1.01% · 16h-1.01%16h-0.54% · 17h-0.54% · 17h-0.54%17h-0.00% · 18h-0.00% · 18h-0.00%18h-0.12% · 19h-0.12% · 19h-0.12%19h0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h0.73% · 21h0.73% · 21h0.73%21h-0.49% · 22h-0.49% · 22h-0.49%22h-0.19% · 23h-0.19% · 23h-0.19%23h0.08% · 00h0.08% · 00h0.08%00h0.13% · 01h0.13% · 01h0.13%01h-0.33% · 02h-0.33% · 02h-0.33%02h0.43% · 03h0.43% · 03h0.43%03h-1.56% · 04h-1.56% · 04h-1.56%04h▼ WORST-0.04% · 05h-0.04% · 05h-0.04%05h-0.38% · 06h-0.38% · 06h-0.38%06h-0.52% · 07h-0.52% · 07h-0.52%07h0.25% · 08h0.25% · 08h0.25%08h0.36% · 09h0.36% · 09h0.36%09h-0.47% · 10h-0.47% · 10h-0.47%10h-0.44% · 11h-0.44% · 11h-0.44%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.38%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.20% · worst -1.56% · typical |Δ| 0.430%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.30%)FINAL-2.30%MAX DD-3.92%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.69%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9770 · peak 1.0169 · range [0.9770, 1.0169]1.01690.9770break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0169UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.92% · moderate0%-3.92%▼ TROUGH -3.92%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.92%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.22%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.92%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9770 (-2.30%) · max DD -3.92% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-19.26 · σ=21.63UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -47.51 (-1.31σ vs μ)56.7028.350.00-28.35-56.70μ = -19.262.602.606.966.960.310.31-30.50-30.50-20.88-20.88-9.34-9.342.972.975.985.9815.6315.63-2.64-2.64-17.09-17.09-32.14-32.14-28.74-28.74-39.62-39.62-56.70-56.70-39.79-39.79-42.29-42.29-33.10-33.10-47.51-47.51v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -47.508 · range [-56.70, 15.63] · μ -19.258 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=53.5460 · σ=14.9469 · range [31.6376, 73.4643] · R²=0.047▼ FALLING -49.88%σ EXTREME 27.91%LAST 36.820373.464363.007652.550942.094231.6376μ = 53.5460max 73.4643min 31.6376dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 36.82% · range [31.64%, 73.46%] · μ 53.55% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.159 · σ=0.289MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.102 (+0.90σ vs μ)0.6030.3010.000-0.301-0.603μ = -0.1590.2700.2700.2950.2950.2150.215-0.197-0.1970.3130.313-0.214-0.214-0.213-0.213-0.232-0.232-0.213-0.213-0.341-0.341-0.213-0.213-0.345-0.345-0.449-0.449-0.545-0.545-0.603-0.603-0.539-0.539-0.032-0.032-0.072-0.0720.1020.102v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.102 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.1789
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3364
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.3499
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8008
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.6092
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8606
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.7165
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4737
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6726
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0160
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.3231
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7467
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.902 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.31e-5 · top T=6.00h (30.6%) · top-3 cover 65.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.2e-49.1e-56.1e-53.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.62e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.62e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.01e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.01e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.28e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.28e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.21e-4 · 30.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.21e-4 · 30.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.90e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.90e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.00e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.00e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.92e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.92e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.40e-5 · 23.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.40e-5 · 23.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.31e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.31e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.31e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.31e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.30e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.30e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.49e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.49e-5 · 11.3% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 30.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.967e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-68.82×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -40.62400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.018
annualized -40.62
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -41.47σ ann 60% · Sortino -33.85 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4977%-3967%-2957%-1947%-938%72%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)60.3%Ann. vol σ-4147.3%Sharpe (ann)-3384.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.6000.6140.6290.6430.6570.672t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:21:57 UTC
Snapshot age
4.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:22:01 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
95e03e9367fe8918a4d005062080c3d243bd7d12689969fd393ba3f37aaf6945 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,493HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.6HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.64

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$12.89K
bid $8.63K · ask $4.26K
Depth within 10bp
$43.34K
bid $25.58K · ask $17.76K
Depth within 50bp
$61.68K
bid $29.75K · ask $31.93K
Mid price
0.626265
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.035
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.065
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-virtual/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.6263871.95bp0.6264502FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.6265664.80bp0.6266708FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.6268288.99bp0.62715020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.6261701.52bp0.6261701FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.6260713.09bp0.6259407FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.6258257.02bp0.62547020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-virtual/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.74M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-virtual/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.064 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$772.61K
real volume
Sell weight
$878.83K
real volume
Net delta
$106.22K
sellers net
Imbalance
-6.43%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
6.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-virtual/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.47% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.644200→0.6282702.473%5
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z3.0h0.651760→0.6409601.657%4
#32026-06-14 11:00:00Z0ms0.632090→0.6263800.903%1

/api/asset/hl-virtual/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
60.26%
σ per bar = 0.000263
Mean return (annualised)
-2499.28%
μ per bar = -0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-41.47
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.31%
peak 0.65 → trough 0.62 over 3209 bars

/api/asset/hl-virtual/risk · same metrics, JSON