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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

POPCAT

POPCAT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-popcat · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.03%
realized vol (ann.)
40.35%
max drawdown
1.22%
sharpe
-33.55
ulcer index
0.45%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.32%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2982.27
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.13%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1199.37
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.03%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.03%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 13.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-popcat/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.041
24h Δ · live
-1.03%
24h vol · live
$1.1M
POPCAT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0415 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0410, 0.0421] · R²=0.042▼ FALLING -1.11%σ LOW 0.73%LAST 0.04100.04210.04180.04160.04130.0410μ = 0.0415max 0.0421min 0.0410dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=27,394,295 · μ=1095771.8 · σ=2108048.4 · CV=1.92BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=701,784,0773,568,1545,352,2317,136,308μ = 10957727,136,30850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 7136308 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.9s
$mark $
$0.041
$mid $
$0.041
◉prev-day close
$0.0415
Δ24h Δ %
-1.034%
$24h vol $
$1.14M
◐open interest $
$1.13M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0415 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0410, 0.0421] · R²=0.042▼ FALLING -1.11%σ LOW 0.73%LAST 0.04100.04210.04180.04160.04130.0410μ = 0.0415max 0.0421min 0.0410dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0410 · 24h -1.03% · range $[0.0410, 0.0421]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0410, 0.0431] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=47%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 0.0410 vs OPEN 0.0410 (+0.09%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.04100.04310.04250.04200.04150.0410μ close = 0.0415O0.041 H0.042 L0.041 C0.042 (+1.21%)O0.041 H0.042 L0.041 C0.042 (+1.21%)O0.041 H0.042 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.26%)O0.041 H0.042 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.26%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.33%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.33%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (+0.18%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (+0.18%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (+0.21%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (+0.21%)O0.041 H0.043 L0.041 C0.041 (+0.24%)O0.041 H0.043 L0.041 C0.041 (+0.24%)1.6%O0.041 H0.042 L0.041 C0.042 (+1.56%)O0.041 H0.042 L0.041 C0.042 (+1.56%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (+0.38%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (+0.38%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.50%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.50%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.37%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.37%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (+0.73%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (+0.73%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.78%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.78%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (+0.47%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (+0.47%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.55%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.55%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.09%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.09%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.04%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (-0.04%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (+0.49%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.042 C0.042 (+0.49%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.74%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.74%)O0.041 H0.042 L0.041 C0.042 (+0.38%)O0.041 H0.042 L0.041 C0.042 (+0.38%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.63%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.63%)O0.041 H0.042 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.24%)O0.041 H0.042 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.24%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (+0.13%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (+0.13%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (+0.35%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (+0.35%)O0.041 H0.042 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.48%)O0.041 H0.042 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.48%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.25%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.25%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=27,394,295 · μ=1095771.8 · σ=2108048.4 · CV=1.92BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=701,784,0773,568,1545,352,2317,136,308μ = 1095772109,030 · 1.5% peak109,030 · 1.5% peak296,090 · 4.1% peak296,090 · 4.1% peak140,839 · 2.0% peak140,839 · 2.0% peak485,144 · 6.8% peak485,144 · 6.8% peak150,973 · 2.1% peak150,973 · 2.1% peak6,198,574 · 86.9% peak6,198,574 · 86.9% peak6,370,099 · 89.3% peak6,370,099 · 89.3% peak1,387,322 · 19.4% peak1,387,322 · 19.4% peak325,131 · 4.6% peak325,131 · 4.6% peak281,783 · 3.9% peak281,783 · 3.9% peak98,573 · 1.4% peak98,573 · 1.4% peak496,481 · 7.0% peak496,481 · 7.0% peak165,532 · 2.3% peak165,532 · 2.3% peak1,875,501 · 26.3% peak1,875,501 · 26.3% peak125,682 · 1.8% peak125,682 · 1.8% peak102,422 · 1.4% peak102,422 · 1.4% peak208,851 · 2.9% peak208,851 · 2.9% peak306,981 · 4.3% peak306,981 · 4.3% peak7,136,3087,136,308 · 100.0% peak7,136,308 · 100.0% peak365,788 · 5.1% peak365,788 · 5.1% peak264,299 · 3.7% peak264,299 · 3.7% peak95,962 · 1.3% peak95,962 · 1.3% peak191,669 · 2.7% peak191,669 · 2.7% peak202,505 · 2.8% peak202,505 · 2.8% peak12,756 · 0.2% peak12,756 · 0.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 27394295 · peak 7136308 · CV 1.92

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0006 · σ=0.0051 · skew=0.60 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.09 (mesokurtic)65320 5-67.88bpbin -67.88bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -67.88bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 3-49.92bpbin -49.92bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -49.92bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 3-31.96bpbin -31.96bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -31.96bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1-14.00bpbin -14.00bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -14.00bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 13.95bpbin 3.95bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 3.95bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 621.91bpbin 21.91bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 21.91bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 339.87bpbin 39.87bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 39.87bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak57.82bp 175.78bpbin 75.78bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 75.78bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak93.74bp111.70bp 1129.65bpbin 129.65bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 129.65bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.69 · kurt=0.12 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.041
Mid price
$0.041
24h change
-1.03%
Mark–mid spread
0.49 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0415

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.10)
μ MEAN0.0415$95% CI: [0.0414$, 0.0417$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.73%
med MEDIAN0.0415$Q₁ 0.0413$ · Q₃ 0.0417$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0011$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0004$)
min 0.0410$Q₁ 0.0413$med 0.0415$Q₃ 0.0417$max 0.0421$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.226approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.104platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.95
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.50
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-8.04
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.046633%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.086
σᵣ STD / h0.542550%σ²ᵣ = 0.294×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.63×
σ ANNUALISED50.78%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.543%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-8.04negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-8.27downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.74right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.44mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.03
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-408.51%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.71%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.707%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.756%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.741%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.51%17h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.707%VaR₉₉−0.756%ES₉₅−0.741%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 17h duration
PEAK4.21$
−2.51% drawdown over 17h
4.10$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.57% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
41.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.034 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0422
Bollinger MA
$0.0416
Bollinger lower
$0.0410

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.182within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.070lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.896strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.999fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.896
H = 0.896STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.182k=2+0.070k=3-0.147k=4+0.146k=5-0.3570+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.00)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.97very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.00)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.14M
Open interest (USD)
$1.13M
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.00x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.39% · worst -0.77% · typical |Δ| 0.45%MILD BEARISH -1.12%BEST+1.39%17hWORST-0.77%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.45%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.12%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.63%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.99%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.12%+1.42%-1.12%-0.43% · 12h-0.43% · 12h-0.43%12h-0.54% · 13h-0.54% · 13h-0.54%13h0.20% · 14h0.20% · 14h0.20%14h0.28% · 15h0.28% · 15h0.28%15h0.24% · 16h0.24% · 16h0.24%16h1.39% · 17h1.39% · 17h1.39%17h★ BEST0.29% · 18h0.29% · 18h0.29%18h-0.60% · 19h-0.60% · 19h-0.60%19h-0.34% · 20h-0.34% · 20h-0.34%20h0.83% · 21h0.83% · 21h0.83%21h-0.77% · 22h-0.77% · 22h-0.77%22h▼ WORST0.46% · 23h0.46% · 23h0.46%23h-0.67% · 00h-0.67% · 00h-0.67%00h0.00% · 01h0.00% · 01h·01h-0.17% · 02h-0.17% · 02h-0.17%02h0.48% · 03h0.48% · 03h0.48%03h-0.71% · 04h-0.71% · 04h-0.71%04h0.33% · 05h0.33% · 05h0.33%05h-0.59% · 06h-0.59% · 06h-0.59%06h-0.30% · 07h-0.30% · 07h-0.30%07h0.14% · 08h0.14% · 08h0.14%08h0.21% · 09h0.21% · 09h0.21%09h-0.53% · 10h-0.53% · 10h-0.53%10h-0.31% · 11h-0.31% · 11h-0.31%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.50%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 50% down · 4% flat
11 up bars · 12 down · best 1.39% · worst -0.77% · typical |Δ| 0.450%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.15%)FINAL-1.15%MAX DD-2.53%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.42%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9885 · peak 1.0142 · range [0.9885, 1.0142]1.01420.9885break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0142UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.53% · moderate0%-2.53%▼ TROUGH -2.53%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.53%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.97%bar 2-6 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.53%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9885 (-1.15%) · max DD -2.53% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-5.77 · σ=30.46UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -64.18 (-1.92σ vs μ)64.1832.090.00-32.09-64.18μ = -5.7725.6425.6446.8846.8844.4044.4028.6928.6938.5738.5714.6014.60-3.03-3.03-25.34-25.34-11.91-11.91-7.98-7.98-19.54-19.54-18.39-18.39-23.42-23.42-21.75-21.75-31.25-31.25-20.63-20.63-32.32-32.32-28.65-28.65-64.18-64.18v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -64.182 · range [-64.18, 46.88] · μ -5.768 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=53.9781 · σ=11.8444 · range [31.4245, 79.8573] · R²=0.721▼ FALLING -51.19%σ EXTREME 21.94%LAST 31.424579.857367.749155.640943.532731.4245μ = 53.9781max 79.8573min 31.4245dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 31.42% · range [31.42%, 79.86%] · μ 53.98% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.357 · σ=0.354MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.092 (+1.27σ vs μ)0.7960.3980.000-0.398-0.796μ = -0.3570.2160.216-0.001-0.001-0.032-0.0320.2160.2160.0630.063-0.145-0.145-0.618-0.618-0.624-0.624-0.796-0.796-0.696-0.696-0.561-0.561-0.572-0.572-0.591-0.591-0.762-0.762-0.680-0.680-0.643-0.643-0.367-0.367-0.284-0.2840.0920.092v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.092 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.3606
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3072
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.5370
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2565
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5113
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5279
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.2231
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8234
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2370
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2921
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7107
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4773
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.784 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.36e-5 · top T=2.00h (32.3%) · top-3 cover 61.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.3e-49.8e-56.5e-53.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.49e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.49e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.98e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.98e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.89e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.89e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.58e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.58e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.77e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.77e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.03e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.03e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.94e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.94e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.07e-5 · 20.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.07e-5 · 20.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.92e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.92e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.54e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.54e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.70e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.70e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 32.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 32.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 32.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.037e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-45.86×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -24.65400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.011
annualized -24.65
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -24.76σ ann 54% · Sortino -19.75 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2971%-2364%-1757%-1150%-542%65%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)54.0%Ann. vol σ-2475.8%Sharpe (ann)-1975.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0390.0400.0410.0420.0430.044t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:09 UTC
Snapshot age
3.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:13 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
dfdf7cf648303cce859d7e3ef8f175bc6eccca572d39380b7cbdf7f15c081a2d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.52K
bid $816 · ask $706
Depth within 10bp
$5.70K
bid $2.46K · ask $3.24K
Depth within 50bp
$49.93K
bid $21.87K · ask $28.05K
Mid price
0.041048
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.121
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.006
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-popcat/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0410674.76bp0.0410793FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.04110513.98bp0.04113011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.04115125.15bp0.04119920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0410323.81bp0.0410182FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.04098215.99bp0.04095712FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.04094724.49bp0.04088620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-popcat/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$27.39M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-popcat/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.648 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$22.49M
real volume
Sell weight
$4.80M
real volume
Net delta
$17.69M
buyers net
Imbalance
64.84%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
64.8%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-popcat/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 7 found · deepest 1.26% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 06:00:00Z2.0h0.041778→0.0412521.259%3
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.042059→0.0415801.139%3
#32026-06-13 13:00:00Z1.0h0.041511→0.0411080.971%2

/api/asset/hl-popcat/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
53.99%
σ per bar = 0.000235
Mean return (annualised)
-1336.65%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-24.76
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.98%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 3409 bars

/api/asset/hl-popcat/risk · same metrics, JSON