HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES
PAXG
PAXG-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
hyperliquid · perp-paxg · fresh · feed 4s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.29%
realized vol (ann.)
7.55%
max drawdown
0.21%
sharpe
-30.48
ulcer index
0.10%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2409.96
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.21%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.91
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1109.22
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.91
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.29%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
- funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/hl-paxg/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$4223.6
24h Δ · live
0.29%
24h vol · live
$0.7M
25 closes · last $4223.80
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
peak 52 contracts
4.4s
$4,223.6
$4,223.3
$4,211.4
+0.290%
$665.90k
$18.39M
0.001250%
+10.95%/yr
§1 · 24h time-series
mark $4223.6000 · 24h 0.29% · range $[4211.2000, 4230.3000]
25 bars
Σ vol 158 · peak 52 · CV 1.69
§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 9
§3 · Spot quote
- Mark price
- $4,223.6
- Mid price
- $4,223.3
- 24h change
- +0.29%
- Mark–mid spread
- 0.71 bps
- Prev-day close
- $4,211.4
§4 · Sample moments (prices)
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.14)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.199approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.140platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.
§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=18.01
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCE
SHARPE (annualised)18.01excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)20.29strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE
SKEWNESS · G₁0.46approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.45mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.
§6 · Risk metrics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKLOW · 95% VaR 0.07%
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILE
PEAK423030.00$422380.00$TROUGH
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.
§7 · Technicals
- RSI(14)
- 58.6 · neutral
- Bollinger %B
- 0.548 · within band
- Bollinger upper
- $4231.2204
- Bollinger MA
- $4223.0050
- Bollinger lower
- $4214.7896
§8 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejected
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.758STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§9 · Microstructure
- 24h volume (USD)
- $665.90k
- Open interest (USD)
- $18.39M
- Vol / OI (turnover)
- 0.04x
- 1h funding
- 0.001250%
- Funding (annualised)
- +10.95%/yr
§10 · Position sizing
- Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
- 10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
- Half-Kelly
- 5.000× · industry-standard conservative
- Quarter-Kelly
- 2.500×
§11 · Hourly return heatmap
13 up bars · 9 down · best 0.18% · worst -0.11% · typical |Δ| 0.050%
§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.0030 (0.30%) · max DD -0.15% · time-under-water 15/25 bars
§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest -10.601 · range [-20.39, 58.68] · μ 22.664 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 5.87% · range [3.07%, 9.08%] · μ 5.89% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest 0.145 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
1.0583
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5891
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
3.0702
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6918
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-2.2099
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2084
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
0.1646
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8693
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀**H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.8266
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0061
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-1.5551
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1199
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 19.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.824e-6
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC
Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.
§17 · Continuous Kelly
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.00%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.00%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-30.33×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.
§18 · MC equity fan
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 0.36400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.000
annualized 0.36
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.
§19 · Annualized breakdown
APR -10% · APY -10% · Sharpe -1.74σ ann 6% · Sortino -0.59 · n 4999
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).
§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.
Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream
- api.hyperliquid.xyz
- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 11:25:33 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 4.4s
- History points
- 25 hourly closes
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 11:25:37 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
06bfa34b52475580ef581f60042392de7b828ee99e787e2596feb83952b628df· deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.7HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.8
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed
Market depth
▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perpDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$259.25K
bid $135.85K · ask $123.40K
Depth within 10bp
$419.88K
bid $235.85K · ask $184.02K
Depth within 50bp
$419.88K
bid $235.85K · ask $184.02K
Mid price
4223.300000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.124
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.326
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perpSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-paxg/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 4223.80 | 1.18bp | 4223.80 | 1 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 4223.88 | 1.37bp | 4223.90 | 2 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 4224.71 | 3.33bp | 4225.30 | 11 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 4222.80 | 1.18bp | 4222.80 | 1 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 4222.80 | 1.18bp | 4222.80 | 1 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 4222.17 | 2.68bp | 4221.70 | 8 | FILLED |
Funding carry
▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receiveHourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
| Side | Direction | Annualised carry | Days → 1% | Days → 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | PAY | -10.958% | 33.3d | 333.3d |
| SHORT | RECEIVE | 10.958% | 33.3d | 333.3d |
/api/asset/hl-paxg/carry · same metrics, JSON
Volume profile
▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 4 · 25 records| Price bin | Bars | Volume | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4228.00–$4232.00 | 2 | $15 | |
| $4224.00–$4228.00 | 8 | $24 | |
| $4220.00–$4224.00 | 5 | $31 | |
| $4216.00–$4220.00★ | 5 | $71 | |
| $4212.00–$4216.00 | 4 | $16 | |
| $4208.00–$4212.00 | 1 | $1 |
★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-paxg/volprofile?priceStep=4
Order flow
▸ BID-LEAN · +0.179 · Hyperliquid candlesBars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$93
real volume
Sell weight
$65
real volume
Net delta
$28
buyers net
Imbalance
17.86%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
17.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume
Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-paxg/flow?rollingWindow=30
Cascade clusters
▸ DOWN · 0 found · deepest 0.00% · Hyperliquid candlesPrice-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.
no clusters detected with the current parameters. Either the market has been calm or the threshold is too tight.
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26MRealized vol (annualised)
5.73%
σ per bar = 0.000025
Mean return (annualised)
-9.96%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-1.74
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.21%
peak 4232.20 → trough 4223.30 over 725 bars
/api/asset/hl-paxg/risk · same metrics, JSON