HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES
NOT
NOT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
hyperliquid · perp-not · fresh · feed 2s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -6.86%
realized vol (ann.)
203.49%
max drawdown
2.87%
sharpe
5.45
ulcer index
1.28%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.93%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
866.89
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.70%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
411.42
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
5.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-6.86%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
- 24h change -6.86%
- funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
- mark cheap vs HL oracle by 21.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/hl-not/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.000
24h Δ · live
-6.86%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
25 closes · last $0.00
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
peak 389276710 contracts
1.8s
$0.0005
$0.0005
$0.0005
-6.863%
$625.36k
$350.53k
0.001250%
+10.95%/yr
§1 · 24h time-series
mark $0.0005 · 24h -6.86% · range $[0.0005, 0.0005]
25 bars
Σ vol 1288698117 · peak 389276710 · CV 1.56
§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 11
§3 · Spot quote
- Mark price
- $0.0005
- Mid price
- $0.0005
- 24h change
- -6.86%
- Mark–mid spread
- 0.00 bps
- Prev-day close
- $0.0005
§4 · Sample moments (prices)
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁0.439approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.964mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.
§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-10.61
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCE
SHARPE (annualised)-10.61negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-8.84downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.61left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.04mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.
§6 · Risk metrics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.64%
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILE
PEAK0.05$0.05$TROUGH
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.
§7 · Technicals
- RSI(14)
- 44.3 · neutral
- Bollinger %B
- 0.368 · within band
- Bollinger upper
- $0.0005
- Bollinger MA
- $0.0005
- Bollinger lower
- $0.0005
§8 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.20 + ADF rejected
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 1.189STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§9 · Microstructure
- 24h volume (USD)
- $625.36k
- Open interest (USD)
- $350.53k
- Vol / OI (turnover)
- 1.78x
- 1h funding
- 0.001250%
- Funding (annualised)
- +10.95%/yr
§10 · Position sizing
- Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
- -6.823× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
- Half-Kelly
- -3.412× · industry-standard conservative
- Quarter-Kelly
- -1.706×
§11 · Hourly return heatmap
12 up bars · 11 down · best 2.49% · worst -4.31% · typical |Δ| 1.333%
§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 0.9527 (-4.73%) · max DD -7.30% · time-under-water 23/25 bars
§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 9.447 · range [-66.26, 44.61] · μ -6.637 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 130.42% · range [99.69%, 234.42%] · μ 141.53% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.343 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
1.4684
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4799
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
5.1770
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3951
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-2.4711
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1291
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
1.9339
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0531
KPSS (μ stationarity)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.0812
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-0.6567
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5114
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 29.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.720e-3
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC
Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.
§17 · Continuous Kelly
f★ empirical 1.98× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 1.95× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.09%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.09%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
1.98×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
1.95×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.99×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.50×
industry default — survives model error
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.
§18 · MC equity fan
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 8.58400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.49× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 8.58
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.04%
VaR 95%5%
0.10%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.11%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.
§19 · Annualized breakdown
APR 890% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 4.16σ ann 214% · Sortino 1.70 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).
§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.
Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream
- api.hyperliquid.xyz
- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 11:23:08 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 1.8s
- History points
- 25 hourly closes
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 11:23:11 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
3a7a71d2da838788ea165c31167cf765aa50cd83984105b06bec14345e77b761· deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,503HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.69
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed
Market depth
▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perpDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$23.45K
bid $14.37K · ask $9.08K
Mid price
0.000475
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
42.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.050
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.198
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perpSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-not/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.000476 | 21.05bp | 0.000476 | 1 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.000476 | 30.61bp | 0.000478 | 3 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.000489 | 304.49bp | 0.000512 | 18 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.000474 | 21.05bp | 0.000474 | 1 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.000474 | 21.05bp | 0.000474 | 1 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.000464 | 238.48bp | 0.000442 | 17 | FILLED |
Funding carry
▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receiveHourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
| Side | Direction | Annualised carry | Days → 1% | Days → 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | PAY | -10.958% | 33.3d | 333.3d |
| SHORT | RECEIVE | 10.958% | 33.3d | 333.3d |
/api/asset/hl-not/carry · same metrics, JSON
Volume profile
▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records| Price bin | Bars | Volume | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.000000–$1.0000★ | 25 | $1.29B |
★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-not/volprofile?priceStep=1
Order flow
▸ BID-LEAN · +0.330 · Hyperliquid candlesBars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$598.00M
real volume
Sell weight
$301.42M
real volume
Net delta
$296.58M
buyers net
Imbalance
32.97%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
33.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume
Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-not/flow?rollingWindow=30
Cascade clusters
▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 5.79% · Hyperliquid candlesPrice-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.
| # | Window | Duration | Peak → Trough | Drawdown | Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 2026-06-13 20:00:00Z | 6.0h | 0.000501→0.000472 | 5.788% | 7 |
| #2 | 2026-06-13 12:00:00Z | 3.0h | 0.000498→0.000475 | 4.618% | 4 |
| #3 | 2026-06-14 04:00:00Z | 2.0h | 0.000480→0.000465 | 3.125% | 3 |
/api/asset/hl-not/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26MRealized vol (annualised)
213.70%
σ per bar = 0.000932
Mean return (annualised)
889.61%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
4.16
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.31%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 1338 bars
/api/asset/hl-not/risk · same metrics, JSON