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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

NEAR

NEAR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-near · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.76%
realized vol (ann.)
79.42%
max drawdown
1.93%
sharpe
-8.02
ulcer index
0.89%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.74%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-712.66
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.75%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-363.73
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.76%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +2.76%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 7.6bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-near/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$2.102
24h Δ · live
2.76%
24h vol · live
$38.0M
NEAR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=2.1132 · σ=0.0318 · range [2.0426, 2.1784] · R²=0.091▲ RISING +2.92%σ NORMAL 1.50%LAST 2.10232.17842.14442.11052.07662.0426μ = 2.1132max 2.1784min 2.0426dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $2.10
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=18,035,234 · μ=721409.4 · σ=630694.6 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=90691,5261,383,0512,074,5772,766,103μ = 7214092,766,102.850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2766103 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.9s
$mark $
$2.1021
$mid $
$2.1025
◉prev-day close
$2.0456
Δ24h Δ %
+2.762%
$24h vol $
$38.05M
◐open interest $
$82.89M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=2.1132 · σ=0.0318 · range [2.0426, 2.1784] · R²=0.091▲ RISING +2.92%σ NORMAL 1.50%LAST 2.10232.17842.14442.11052.07662.0426μ = 2.1132max 2.1784min 2.0426dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $2.1021 · 24h 2.76% · range $[2.0426, 2.1784]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [2.0193, 2.1862] · σ=0.0318 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=45%BULLISH +3.85%CLOSE 2.1023 vs OPEN 2.0243 (+3.85%)&#9650; CLOSE 2.10232.18622.14452.10272.06102.0193μ close = 2.1132O2.024 H2.046 L2.019 C2.043 (+0.90%)O2.024 H2.046 L2.019 C2.043 (+0.90%)O2.041 H2.064 L2.039 C2.054 (+0.64%)O2.041 H2.064 L2.039 C2.054 (+0.64%)O2.054 H2.072 L2.046 C2.056 (+0.06%)O2.054 H2.072 L2.046 C2.056 (+0.06%)O2.056 H2.073 L2.052 C2.073 (+0.80%)O2.056 H2.073 L2.052 C2.073 (+0.80%)5.1%O2.074 H2.184 L2.070 C2.178 (+5.06%)O2.074 H2.184 L2.070 C2.178 (+5.06%)O2.180 H2.186 L2.092 C2.151 (-1.35%)O2.180 H2.186 L2.092 C2.151 (-1.35%)O2.151 H2.154 L2.104 C2.120 (-1.42%)O2.151 H2.154 L2.104 C2.120 (-1.42%)O2.119 H2.131 L2.105 C2.122 (+0.13%)O2.119 H2.131 L2.105 C2.122 (+0.13%)O2.122 H2.135 L2.100 C2.105 (-0.77%)O2.122 H2.135 L2.100 C2.105 (-0.77%)O2.105 H2.111 L2.092 C2.101 (-0.19%)O2.105 H2.111 L2.092 C2.101 (-0.19%)O2.102 H2.144 L2.086 C2.132 (+1.47%)O2.102 H2.144 L2.086 C2.132 (+1.47%)O2.134 H2.138 L2.114 C2.117 (-0.78%)O2.134 H2.138 L2.114 C2.117 (-0.78%)O2.117 H2.139 L2.114 C2.130 (+0.60%)O2.117 H2.139 L2.114 C2.130 (+0.60%)O2.131 H2.133 L2.114 C2.117 (-0.64%)O2.131 H2.133 L2.114 C2.117 (-0.64%)O2.117 H2.175 L2.112 C2.162 (+2.12%)O2.117 H2.175 L2.112 C2.162 (+2.12%)O2.160 H2.173 L2.130 C2.136 (-1.13%)O2.160 H2.173 L2.130 C2.136 (-1.13%)O2.135 H2.147 L2.123 C2.142 (+0.35%)O2.135 H2.147 L2.123 C2.142 (+0.35%)O2.142 H2.144 L2.110 C2.119 (-1.04%)O2.142 H2.144 L2.110 C2.119 (-1.04%)O2.119 H2.125 L2.102 C2.119 (+0.01%)O2.119 H2.125 L2.102 C2.119 (+0.01%)O2.119 H2.144 L2.100 C2.107 (-0.59%)O2.119 H2.144 L2.100 C2.107 (-0.59%)O2.109 H2.112 L2.094 C2.103 (-0.30%)O2.109 H2.112 L2.094 C2.103 (-0.30%)O2.105 H2.129 L2.101 C2.113 (+0.40%)O2.105 H2.129 L2.101 C2.113 (+0.40%)O2.113 H2.124 L2.088 C2.122 (+0.45%)O2.113 H2.124 L2.088 C2.122 (+0.45%)O2.121 H2.134 L2.103 C2.106 (-0.70%)O2.121 H2.134 L2.103 C2.106 (-0.70%)O2.105 H2.112 L2.095 C2.102 (-0.13%)O2.105 H2.112 L2.095 C2.102 (-0.13%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=18,035,234 · μ=721409.4 · σ=630694.6 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=90691,5261,383,0512,074,5772,766,103μ = 721409273,437 · 9.9% peak273,437 · 9.9% peak518,383.7 · 18.7% peak518,383.7 · 18.7% peak659,273 · 23.8% peak659,273 · 23.8% peak249,956 · 9.0% peak249,956 · 9.0% peak1,797,890.4 · 65.0% peak1,797,890.4 · 65.0% peak2,766,102.82,766,102.8 · 100.0% peak2,766,102.8 · 100.0% peak1,323,023.7 · 47.8% peak1,323,023.7 · 47.8% peak772,924.8 · 27.9% peak772,924.8 · 27.9% peak744,393.9 · 26.9% peak744,393.9 · 26.9% peak583,289.2 · 21.1% peak583,289.2 · 21.1% peak2,005,062.3 · 72.5% peak2,005,062.3 · 72.5% peak566,724.4 · 20.5% peak566,724.4 · 20.5% peak443,598.6 · 16.0% peak443,598.6 · 16.0% peak389,123.7 · 14.1% peak389,123.7 · 14.1% peak714,273.8 · 25.8% peak714,273.8 · 25.8% peak969,608.7 · 35.1% peak969,608.7 · 35.1% peak395,760.7 · 14.3% peak395,760.7 · 14.3% peak579,880.5 · 21.0% peak579,880.5 · 21.0% peak211,166.5 · 7.6% peak211,166.5 · 7.6% peak533,866.7 · 19.3% peak533,866.7 · 19.3% peak550,231 · 19.9% peak550,231 · 19.9% peak253,913.8 · 9.2% peak253,913.8 · 9.2% peak477,278.4 · 17.3% peak477,278.4 · 17.3% peak145,796 · 5.3% peak145,796 · 5.3% peak110,274.8 · 4.0% peak110,274.8 · 4.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 18035234 · peak 2766103 · CV 0.87

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0013 · σ=0.0125 · skew=2.04 (right-skewed) · kurt=5.01 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 4-116.21bpbin -116.21bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -116.21bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 5-62.93bpbin -62.93bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -62.93bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 6-9.66bpbin -9.66bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -9.66bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 543.61bpbin 43.61bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 43.61bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 196.88bpbin 96.88bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 96.88bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1150.15bpbin 150.15bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 150.15bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1203.42bpbin 203.42bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 203.42bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak256.70bp309.97bp363.24bp416.51bp 1469.78bpbin 469.78bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 469.78bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.02 · kurt=5.11 · near 17 / mid 6 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.64σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$2.1021
Mid price
$2.1025
24h change
+2.76%
Mark–mid spread
1.90 bps
Prev-day close
$2.0456

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN2.1132$95% CI: [2.1008$, 2.1257$]
σ STD DEV0.0318$σ² = 10.114×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.50%
med MEDIAN2.1170$Q₁ 2.1028$ · Q₃ 2.1298$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.1358$ · IQR 0.0270$ (1.349σ→0.0429$)
min 2.0426$Q₁ 2.1028$med 2.1170$Q₃ 2.1298$max 2.1784$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.405approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.034mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.59
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.27
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=8.34
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.120035%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.089
σᵣ STD / h1.346304%σ²ᵣ = 1.813×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.22×
σ ANNUALISED126.01%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.346%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)8.34excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)13.07strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁2.16right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂6.66leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.57
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1051.51%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.28%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.277%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.396%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.359%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.54%5h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.277%VaR₉₉−1.396%ES₉₅−1.359%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 5h duration
PEAK217.84$
−3.54% drawdown over 5h
210.12$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.67% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.214 · within band
Bollinger upper
$2.1547
Bollinger MA
$2.1214
Bollinger lower
$2.0880

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.174within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.066lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.823strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.522fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.823
H = 0.823STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.174k=2-0.066k=3-0.054k=4-0.025k=5-0.1650+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.52)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.82very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.52)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$38.05M
Open interest (USD)
$82.89M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.46x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
6.623× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.311× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.656×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.96% · worst -1.43% · typical |Δ| 0.87%MILD BULLISH +2.88%BEST+4.96%15hWORST-1.43%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.87%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.88%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.28%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.80% · Σ +6.41%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.28% · Σ -2.26%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.88%+6.44%0.00%0.57% · 12h0.57% · 12h0.57%12h0.07% · 13h0.07% · 13h0.07%13h0.84% · 14h0.84% · 14h0.84%14h4.96% · 15h4.96% · 15h4.96%15h★ BEST-1.29% · 16h-1.29% · 16h-1.29%16h-1.43% · 17h-1.43% · 17h-1.43%17h▼ WORST0.08% · 18h0.08% · 18h0.08%18h-0.78% · 19h-0.78% · 19h-0.78%19h-0.19% · 20h-0.19% · 20h-0.19%20h1.47% · 21h1.47% · 21h1.47%21h-0.72% · 22h-0.72% · 22h-0.72%22h0.60% · 23h0.60% · 23h0.60%23h-0.61% · 00h-0.61% · 00h-0.61%00h2.11% · 01h2.11% · 01h2.11%01h-1.21% · 02h-1.21% · 02h-1.21%02h0.29% · 03h0.29% · 03h0.29%03h-1.07% · 04h-1.07% · 04h-1.07%04h0.00% · 05h0.00% · 05h·05h-0.60% · 06h-0.60% · 06h-0.60%06h-0.19% · 07h-0.19% · 07h-0.19%07h0.48% · 08h0.48% · 08h0.48%08h0.44% · 09h0.44% · 09h0.44%09h-0.78% · 10h-0.78% · 10h-0.78%10h-0.17% · 11h-0.17% · 11h-0.17%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+6.41%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 50% down · 4% flat
11 up bars · 12 down · best 4.96% · worst -1.43% · typical |Δ| 0.873%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.71%FINAL+2.71%MAX DD-3.57%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+6.52%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0271 · peak 1.0652 · range [1.0000, 1.0652]1.06521.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0652UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.57% · moderate0%-3.57%▼ TROUGH -3.57%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.57%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.57%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0271 (2.71%) · max DD -3.57% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-5.26 · σ=25.77MIXED EDGELAST -24.49 (-0.75σ vs μ)72.3536.180.00-36.18-72.35μ = -5.2624.9424.9421.5821.5815.5515.558.838.83-31.01-31.01-24.56-24.568.398.39-3.92-3.9235.7235.7219.2219.225.955.951.471.47-6.19-6.19-6.05-6.05-72.35-72.35-29.39-29.39-24.20-24.20-19.40-19.40-24.49-24.49v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -24.492 · range [-72.35, 35.72] · μ -5.258 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=115.7132 · σ=61.2908 · range [48.5733, 224.2571] · R²=0.661▼ FALLING -77.69%σ EXTREME 52.97%LAST 48.5733224.2571180.3362136.415292.494348.5733μ = 115.7132max 224.2571min 48.5733dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 48.57% · range [48.57%, 224.26%] · μ 115.71% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.334 · σ=0.289MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.003 (+1.14σ vs μ)0.7770.3890.000-0.389-0.777μ = -0.334-0.130-0.130-0.088-0.088-0.058-0.058-0.135-0.1350.1000.100-0.261-0.261-0.461-0.461-0.484-0.484-0.589-0.589-0.692-0.692-0.701-0.701-0.620-0.620-0.602-0.602-0.453-0.453-0.777-0.777-0.396-0.3960.0900.090-0.078-0.078-0.003-0.003v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.003 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
63.0231
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.9492
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8571
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.1770
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0222
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6508
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5152
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2314
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3019
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7349
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4624
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.776 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.98e-4 · top T=2.00h (24.7%) · top-3 cover 52.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)5.9e-44.4e-42.9e-41.5e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.26e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.26e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 5.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 5.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.93e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.93e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.44e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.44e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.27e-4 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.27e-4 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.80e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.80e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.47e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.47e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.07e-4 · 12.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.07e-4 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.32e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.32e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.76e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.76e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.34e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.34e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.88e-4 · 24.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.88e-4 · 24.7% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 24.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.378e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-30.02×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -23.61400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.010
annualized -23.61
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -24.52σ ann 82% · Sortino -21.35 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2942%-2334%-1726%-1118%-510%98%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)81.7%Ann. vol σ-2451.5%Sharpe (ann)-2135.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
2.0062.0522.0972.1432.1892.235t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:15 UTC
Snapshot age
5.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:21 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b2931b3247c8ecbc5a331caf6d837644d3b02bc36403b764202daca6fe3e101d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$285.76K
bid $278.16K · ask $7.60K
Depth within 5bp
$310.86K
bid $278.18K · ask $32.68K
Depth within 10bp
$383.26K
bid $307.48K · ask $75.78K
Depth within 50bp
$476.46K
bid $396.54K · ask $79.91K
Mid price
2.102250
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.665
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.890
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-near/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K2.10230.24bp2.10231FILLED
BUY$10.00K2.10240.50bp2.10253FILLED
BUY$100.00K2.10355.86bp2.104520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K2.10220.24bp2.10221FILLED
SELL$10.00K2.10220.24bp2.10221FILLED
SELL$100.00K2.10220.24bp2.10221FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-near/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$2.0000–$3.0000★25$18.04M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-near/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.067 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$8.29M
real volume
Sell weight
$9.47M
real volume
Net delta
$1.19M
sellers net
Imbalance
-6.67%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
6.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-near/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 3.54% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z4.0h2.1784→2.10123.544%5
#22026-06-14 02:00:00Z5.0h2.1620→2.10282.738%6
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h2.1223→2.10230.942%2

/api/asset/hl-near/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
81.67%
σ per bar = 0.000356
Mean return (annualised)
-2002.22%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-24.52
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.75%
peak 2.15 → trough 2.09 over 3681 bars

/api/asset/hl-near/risk · same metrics, JSON