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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ETHFI

ETHFI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ethfi · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.26%
realized vol (ann.)
83.92%
max drawdown
1.90%
sharpe
-8.17
ulcer index
0.88%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.71%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-777.97
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.73%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-396.52
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.26%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.26%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ethfi/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH683ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.314
24h Δ · live
-2.26%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
ETHFI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3170 · σ=0.0020 · range [0.3140, 0.3212] · R²=0.646▼ FALLING -2.24%σ LOW 0.65%LAST 0.31400.32120.31940.31760.31580.3140μ = 0.3170max 0.3212min 0.3140dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.31
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,069,126 · μ=42765.0 · σ=48546.5 · CV=1.14BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=16049,10998,219147,328196,438μ = 42765196,437.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 196438 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
683ms
$mark $
$0.314
$mid $
$0.314
◉prev-day close
$0.3212
Δ24h Δ %
-2.260%
$24h vol $
$327.58k
◐open interest $
$2.75M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3170 · σ=0.0020 · range [0.3140, 0.3212] · R²=0.646▼ FALLING -2.24%σ LOW 0.65%LAST 0.31400.32120.31940.31760.31580.3140μ = 0.3170max 0.3212min 0.3140dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3140 · 24h -2.26% · range $[0.3140, 0.3212]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.3119, 0.3218] · σ=0.0020 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -1.54%CLOSE 0.3140 vs OPEN 0.3189 (-1.54%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.31400.32180.31940.31690.31440.3119μ close = 0.3170O0.319 H0.322 L0.319 C0.321 (+0.72%)O0.319 H0.322 L0.319 C0.321 (+0.72%)O0.321 H0.321 L0.318 C0.319 (-0.67%)O0.321 H0.321 L0.318 C0.319 (-0.67%)O0.319 H0.321 L0.319 C0.320 (+0.18%)O0.319 H0.321 L0.319 C0.320 (+0.18%)O0.320 H0.321 L0.318 C0.320 (+0.09%)O0.320 H0.321 L0.318 C0.320 (+0.09%)O0.320 H0.321 L0.320 C0.320 (-0.05%)O0.320 H0.321 L0.320 C0.320 (-0.05%)O0.320 H0.320 L0.316 C0.318 (-0.73%)O0.320 H0.320 L0.316 C0.318 (-0.73%)O0.317 H0.320 L0.316 C0.318 (+0.03%)O0.317 H0.320 L0.316 C0.318 (+0.03%)O0.318 H0.318 L0.315 C0.316 (-0.43%)O0.318 H0.318 L0.315 C0.316 (-0.43%)O0.316 H0.318 L0.315 C0.317 (+0.24%)O0.316 H0.318 L0.315 C0.317 (+0.24%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.316 C0.317 (-0.13%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.316 C0.317 (-0.13%)O0.317 H0.320 L0.316 C0.319 (+0.49%)O0.317 H0.320 L0.316 C0.319 (+0.49%)O0.319 H0.319 L0.317 C0.317 (-0.66%)O0.319 H0.319 L0.317 C0.317 (-0.66%)O0.317 H0.318 L0.316 C0.317 (+0.07%)O0.317 H0.318 L0.316 C0.317 (+0.07%)O0.316 H0.317 L0.316 C0.316 (-0.21%)O0.316 H0.317 L0.316 C0.316 (-0.21%)O0.316 H0.317 L0.315 C0.317 (+0.32%)O0.316 H0.317 L0.315 C0.317 (+0.32%)O0.317 H0.321 L0.316 C0.319 (+0.56%)O0.317 H0.321 L0.316 C0.319 (+0.56%)O0.319 H0.319 L0.316 C0.318 (-0.19%)O0.319 H0.319 L0.316 C0.318 (-0.19%)-1.1%O0.318 H0.318 L0.314 C0.315 (-1.05%)O0.318 H0.318 L0.314 C0.315 (-1.05%)O0.314 H0.315 L0.312 C0.314 (+0.12%)O0.314 H0.315 L0.312 C0.314 (+0.12%)O0.314 H0.321 L0.314 C0.314 (+0.01%)O0.314 H0.321 L0.314 C0.314 (+0.01%)O0.314 H0.315 L0.314 C0.315 (+0.24%)O0.314 H0.315 L0.314 C0.315 (+0.24%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.314 C0.315 (-0.20%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.314 C0.315 (-0.20%)O0.314 H0.320 L0.313 C0.317 (+0.89%)O0.314 H0.320 L0.313 C0.317 (+0.89%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.315 C0.315 (-0.84%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.315 C0.315 (-0.84%)O0.316 H0.316 L0.314 C0.314 (-0.50%)O0.316 H0.316 L0.314 C0.314 (-0.50%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,069,126 · μ=42765.0 · σ=48546.5 · CV=1.14BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=16049,10998,219147,328196,438μ = 4276540,990.9 · 20.9% peak40,990.9 · 20.9% peak28,917.8 · 14.7% peak28,917.8 · 14.7% peak39,173.5 · 19.9% peak39,173.5 · 19.9% peak28,012.5 · 14.3% peak28,012.5 · 14.3% peak6,525.3 · 3.3% peak6,525.3 · 3.3% peak43,870.5 · 22.3% peak43,870.5 · 22.3% peak83,641.8 · 42.6% peak83,641.8 · 42.6% peak48,438.7 · 24.7% peak48,438.7 · 24.7% peak12,105.7 · 6.2% peak12,105.7 · 6.2% peak24,010.4 · 12.2% peak24,010.4 · 12.2% peak18,326.2 · 9.3% peak18,326.2 · 9.3% peak4,636.8 · 2.4% peak4,636.8 · 2.4% peak15,947.6 · 8.1% peak15,947.6 · 8.1% peak15,076.6 · 7.7% peak15,076.6 · 7.7% peak12,085.9 · 6.2% peak12,085.9 · 6.2% peak196,437.6196,437.6 · 100.0% peak196,437.6 · 100.0% peak45,465.4 · 23.1% peak45,465.4 · 23.1% peak11,513.6 · 5.9% peak11,513.6 · 5.9% peak21,384 · 10.9% peak21,384 · 10.9% peak155,929.1 · 79.4% peak155,929.1 · 79.4% peak65,742.1 · 33.5% peak65,742.1 · 33.5% peak16,835.3 · 8.6% peak16,835.3 · 8.6% peak118,955.6 · 60.6% peak118,955.6 · 60.6% peak8,503.9 · 4.3% peak8,503.9 · 4.3% peak6,599.1 · 3.4% peak6,599.1 · 3.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1069126 · peak 196438 · CV 1.14

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0009 · σ=0.0046 · skew=-0.19 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.57 (mesokurtic)43210 1-101.56bpbin -101.56bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -101.56bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-85.30bpbin -85.30bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -85.30bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-69.04bpbin -69.04bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -69.04bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak-52.77bp 2-36.51bpbin -36.51bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -36.51bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-20.25bpbin -20.25bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -20.25bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-3.98bpbin -3.98bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -3.98bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 412.28bpbin 12.28bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 12.28bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 328.54bpbin 28.54bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 28.54bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak44.80bp 261.07bpbin 61.07bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 61.07bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 177.33bpbin 77.33bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 77.33bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.15 · kurt=-0.37 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.314
Mid price
$0.314
24h change
-2.26%
Mark–mid spread
0.64 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3212

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.07)
μ MEAN0.3170$95% CI: [0.3162$, 0.3178$]
σ STD DEV0.0020$σ² = 0.042×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.65%
med MEDIAN0.3170$Q₁ 0.3151$ · Q₃ 0.3186$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0072$ · IQR 0.0036$ (1.349σ→0.0028$)
min 0.3140$Q₁ 0.3151$med 0.3170$Q₃ 0.3186$max 0.3212$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.205approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.074platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.78
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.52
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-18.68
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.094468%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.200
σᵣ STD / h0.473398%σ²ᵣ = 0.224×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.01×
σ ANNUALISED44.31%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.473%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-18.68negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-16.63downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.16approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.16mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.89
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-827.54%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.77%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.775%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.023%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.936%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.24%24h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.775%VaR₉₉−1.023%ES₉₅−0.936%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 24h duration
PEAK32.12$
−2.24% drawdown over 24h
31.40$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.32× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.29% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
37.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.115 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3193
Bollinger MA
$0.3163
Bollinger lower
$0.3133

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.236within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.036lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.880strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.481significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.880
H = 0.880STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.236k=2-0.036k=3-0.398k=4+0.162k=5-0.2170+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.48)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.48)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$327.58k
Open interest (USD)
$2.75M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.12x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.85% · worst -1.10% · typical |Δ| 0.37%MILD BEARISH -2.27%BEST+0.85%09hWORST-1.10%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.37%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.27%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.59%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.71%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.96%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.27%+0.00%-2.27%-0.64% · 12h-0.64% · 12h-0.64%12h0.20% · 13h0.20% · 13h0.20%13h0.08% · 14h0.08% · 14h0.08%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h0.00%15h-0.77% · 16h-0.77% · 16h-0.77%16h-0.01% · 17h-0.01% · 17h-0.01%17h-0.43% · 18h-0.43% · 18h-0.43%18h0.29% · 19h0.29% · 19h0.29%19h-0.09% · 20h-0.09% · 20h-0.09%20h0.58% · 21h0.58% · 21h0.58%21h-0.62% · 22h-0.62% · 22h-0.62%22h0.09% · 23h0.09% · 23h0.09%23h-0.36% · 00h-0.36% · 00h-0.36%00h0.35% · 01h0.35% · 01h0.35%01h0.56% · 02h0.56% · 02h0.56%02h-0.20% · 03h-0.20% · 03h-0.20%03h-1.10% · 04h-1.10% · 04h-1.10%04h▼ WORST-0.11% · 05h-0.11% · 05h-0.11%05h0.05% · 06h0.05% · 06h0.05%06h0.21% · 07h0.21% · 07h0.21%07h-0.16% · 08h-0.16% · 08h-0.16%08h0.85% · 09h0.85% · 09h0.85%09h★ BEST-0.78% · 10h-0.78% · 10h-0.78%10h-0.27% · 11h-0.27% · 11h-0.27%11hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.85% · worst -1.10% · typical |Δ| 0.367%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.27%)FINAL-2.27%MAX DD-2.27%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9773 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9773, 1.0000]1.00000.9773break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.27% · moderate0%-2.27%▼ TROUGH -2.27%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.27%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.27%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9773 (-2.27%) · max DD -2.27% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-15.85 · σ=17.55UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -2.56 (+0.76σ vs μ)44.3722.190.00-22.19-44.37μ = -15.85-43.57-43.57-39.24-39.24-33.73-33.73-42.01-42.01-13.78-13.78-9.84-9.84-6.25-6.25-4.06-4.06-1.87-1.8718.6818.68-6.35-6.35-17.30-17.30-22.87-22.87-11.93-11.93-16.06-16.06-44.37-44.37-6.12-6.122.142.14-2.56-2.56v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -2.558 · range [-44.37, 18.68] · μ -15.848 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=45.4559 · σ=7.4067 · range [34.5557, 59.3307] · R²=0.627▲ RISING +32.82%σ EXTREME 16.29%LAST 50.873059.330753.137046.943240.749534.5557μ = 45.4559max 59.3307min 34.5557dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 50.87% · range [34.56%, 59.33%] · μ 45.46% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.248 · σ=0.281MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.415 (-0.59σ vs μ)0.6360.3180.000-0.318-0.636μ = -0.248-0.281-0.281-0.156-0.156-0.402-0.402-0.461-0.461-0.179-0.179-0.551-0.551-0.613-0.613-0.555-0.555-0.636-0.636-0.272-0.272-0.114-0.1140.0960.0960.1280.1280.2090.2090.0580.0580.0530.053-0.025-0.025-0.594-0.594-0.415-0.415v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.415 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1241
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9398
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.6416
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1231
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2756
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1866
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8760
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3810
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7662
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0086
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2075
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2272
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.633 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.83e-5 · top T=2.00h (48.0%) · top-3 cover 80.5%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.6e-41.2e-48.1e-54.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.13e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.13e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.12e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.12e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.53e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.53e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.10e-5 · 23.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.10e-5 · 23.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.00e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.00e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.91e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.91e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.87e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.87e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.03e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.03e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.64e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.64e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.58e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.58e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.18e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.18e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.63e-4 · 48.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.63e-4 · 48.0% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 48.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.391e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-19.91×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -17.94400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -17.94
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -16.52σ ann 83% · Sortino -13.43 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1983%-1566%-1150%-733%-317%100%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)83.0%Ann. vol σ-1652.3%Sharpe (ann)-1342.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.3000.3060.3130.3200.3270.333t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:21 UTC
Snapshot age
683ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:21 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a11aa91736e626a44b4aa7bc97a3ff7e41a1165a49fc58fc4f903626cb443418 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,504HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.72

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.22K
bid $854 · ask $1.36K
Depth within 10bp
$10.56K
bid $5.10K · ask $5.47K
Depth within 50bp
$45.29K
bid $25.66K · ask $19.63K
Mid price
0.313960
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.116
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.034
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ethfi/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3140322.28bp0.3140402FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.3142408.92bp0.3143006FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.31502133.78bp0.31626020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3138523.45bp0.3137603FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.3136749.10bp0.3135807FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.31331820.44bp0.31266020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ethfi/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.07M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ethfi/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.302 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$669.24K
real volume
Sell weight
$358.89K
real volume
Net delta
$310.35K
buyers net
Imbalance
30.19%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
30.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ethfi/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.39% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.318700→0.3142601.393%3
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.320020→0.3161701.203%3
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h0.317280→0.3139801.040%2

/api/asset/hl-ethfi/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
83.00%
σ per bar = 0.000362
Mean return (annualised)
-1371.38%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-16.52
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.12%
peak 0.32 → trough 0.31 over 1716 bars

/api/asset/hl-ethfi/risk · same metrics, JSON