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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

CRV

CRV-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-crv · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.94%
realized vol (ann.)
66.16%
max drawdown
3.04%
sharpe
-31.65
ulcer index
2.30%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.08%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-910.63
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.94%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-712.48
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.94%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.94%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-crv/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.233
24h Δ · live
-2.94%
24h vol · live
$5.5M
CRV · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2361 · σ=0.0026 · range [0.2321, 0.2422] · R²=0.787▼ FALLING -3.30%σ NORMAL 1.12%LAST 0.23260.24220.23970.23720.23470.2321μ = 0.2361max 0.2422min 0.2321dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.23
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=23,808,885 · μ=952355.4 · σ=1630153.0 · CV=1.71BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=601,921,3413,842,6825,764,0227,685,363μ = 9523557,685,363.250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 7685363 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.3s
$mark $
$0.2326
$mid $
$0.2326
◉prev-day close
$0.2396
Δ24h Δ %
-2.942%
$24h vol $
$5.50M
◐open interest $
$6.95M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2361 · σ=0.0026 · range [0.2321, 0.2422] · R²=0.787▼ FALLING -3.30%σ NORMAL 1.12%LAST 0.23260.24220.23970.23720.23470.2321μ = 0.2361max 0.2422min 0.2321dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2326 · 24h -2.94% · range $[0.2321, 0.2422]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.2314, 0.2461] · σ=0.0026 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=42%BEARISH -1.03%CLOSE 0.2326 vs OPEN 0.2350 (-1.03%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.23260.24610.24250.23880.23510.2314μ close = 0.23612.3%O0.235 H0.241 L0.235 C0.241 (+2.35%)O0.235 H0.241 L0.235 C0.241 (+2.35%)O0.241 H0.241 L0.238 C0.238 (-0.95%)O0.241 H0.241 L0.238 C0.238 (-0.95%)O0.238 H0.239 L0.237 C0.239 (+0.26%)O0.238 H0.239 L0.237 C0.239 (+0.26%)O0.239 H0.246 L0.239 C0.242 (+1.34%)O0.239 H0.246 L0.239 C0.242 (+1.34%)O0.242 H0.244 L0.238 C0.240 (-0.96%)O0.242 H0.244 L0.238 C0.240 (-0.96%)O0.240 H0.240 L0.232 C0.238 (-0.84%)O0.240 H0.240 L0.232 C0.238 (-0.84%)O0.238 H0.238 L0.236 C0.237 (-0.56%)O0.238 H0.238 L0.236 C0.237 (-0.56%)O0.237 H0.238 L0.236 C0.237 (+0.01%)O0.237 H0.238 L0.236 C0.237 (+0.01%)O0.237 H0.237 L0.235 C0.236 (-0.39%)O0.237 H0.237 L0.235 C0.236 (-0.39%)O0.236 H0.236 L0.234 C0.235 (-0.34%)O0.236 H0.236 L0.234 C0.235 (-0.34%)O0.235 H0.238 L0.234 C0.237 (+0.82%)O0.235 H0.238 L0.234 C0.237 (+0.82%)O0.237 H0.240 L0.237 C0.238 (+0.54%)O0.237 H0.240 L0.237 C0.238 (+0.54%)O0.238 H0.240 L0.237 C0.237 (-0.44%)O0.238 H0.240 L0.237 C0.237 (-0.44%)O0.237 H0.237 L0.234 C0.235 (-0.95%)O0.237 H0.237 L0.234 C0.235 (-0.95%)O0.235 H0.235 L0.234 C0.234 (-0.22%)O0.235 H0.235 L0.234 C0.234 (-0.22%)O0.234 H0.235 L0.234 C0.235 (+0.47%)O0.234 H0.235 L0.234 C0.235 (+0.47%)O0.235 H0.235 L0.234 C0.234 (-0.20%)O0.235 H0.235 L0.234 C0.234 (-0.20%)O0.235 H0.235 L0.233 C0.234 (-0.33%)O0.235 H0.235 L0.233 C0.234 (-0.33%)O0.234 H0.234 L0.232 C0.234 (+0.18%)O0.234 H0.234 L0.232 C0.234 (+0.18%)O0.234 H0.236 L0.233 C0.234 (-0.12%)O0.234 H0.236 L0.233 C0.234 (-0.12%)O0.234 H0.236 L0.233 C0.235 (+0.65%)O0.234 H0.236 L0.233 C0.235 (+0.65%)O0.235 H0.239 L0.234 C0.234 (-0.70%)O0.235 H0.239 L0.234 C0.234 (-0.70%)O0.234 H0.234 L0.231 C0.233 (-0.31%)O0.234 H0.234 L0.231 C0.233 (-0.31%)O0.233 H0.233 L0.232 C0.232 (-0.18%)O0.233 H0.233 L0.232 C0.232 (-0.18%)O0.232 H0.233 L0.231 C0.233 (+0.19%)O0.232 H0.233 L0.231 C0.233 (+0.19%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=23,808,885 · μ=952355.4 · σ=1630153.0 · CV=1.71BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=601,921,3413,842,6825,764,0227,685,363μ = 9523551,199,005.2 · 15.6% peak1,199,005.2 · 15.6% peak384,046.4 · 5.0% peak384,046.4 · 5.0% peak298,939.5 · 3.9% peak298,939.5 · 3.9% peak3,429,810.7 · 44.6% peak3,429,810.7 · 44.6% peak2,083,497.5 · 27.1% peak2,083,497.5 · 27.1% peak7,685,363.27,685,363.2 · 100.0% peak7,685,363.2 · 100.0% peak700,031.8 · 9.1% peak700,031.8 · 9.1% peak313,510.1 · 4.1% peak313,510.1 · 4.1% peak222,833.7 · 2.9% peak222,833.7 · 2.9% peak166,206 · 2.2% peak166,206 · 2.2% peak452,502.2 · 5.9% peak452,502.2 · 5.9% peak771,967.2 · 10.0% peak771,967.2 · 10.0% peak182,705.9 · 2.4% peak182,705.9 · 2.4% peak247,405.4 · 3.2% peak247,405.4 · 3.2% peak100,027.1 · 1.3% peak100,027.1 · 1.3% peak256,919.9 · 3.3% peak256,919.9 · 3.3% peak89,069.5 · 1.2% peak89,069.5 · 1.2% peak296,617.5 · 3.9% peak296,617.5 · 3.9% peak198,407.8 · 2.6% peak198,407.8 · 2.6% peak303,110.2 · 3.9% peak303,110.2 · 3.9% peak1,180,500.8 · 15.4% peak1,180,500.8 · 15.4% peak2,462,295.4 · 32.0% peak2,462,295.4 · 32.0% peak492,697.7 · 6.4% peak492,697.7 · 6.4% peak181,021.4 · 2.4% peak181,021.4 · 2.4% peak110,393.4 · 1.4% peak110,393.4 · 1.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 23808885 · peak 7685363 · CV 1.71

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0016 · σ=0.0059 · skew=0.53 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.44 (mesokurtic)65320 4-95.95bpbin -95.95bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -95.95bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 1-76.01bpbin -76.01bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -76.01bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-56.06bpbin -56.06bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -56.06bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 6-36.12bpbin -36.12bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -36.12bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 2-16.17bpbin -16.17bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -16.17bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 23.77bpbin 3.77bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 3.77bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 223.72bpbin 23.72bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 23.72bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 143.66bpbin 43.66bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 43.66bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 263.61bpbin 63.61bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 63.61bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 183.55bpbin 83.55bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 83.55bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak103.50bp 1123.44bpbin 123.44bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 123.44bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.54 · kurt=-0.12 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2326
Mid price
$0.2326
24h change
-2.94%
Mark–mid spread
0.43 bps
Prev-day close
$0.2396

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.54)
μ MEAN0.2361$95% CI: [0.2350$, 0.2371$]
σ STD DEV0.0026$σ² = 0.070×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.12%
med MEDIAN0.2352$Q₁ 0.2341$ · Q₃ 0.2379$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0101$ · IQR 0.0038$ (1.349σ→0.0036$)
min 0.2321$Q₁ 0.2341$med 0.2352$Q₃ 0.2379$max 0.2422$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.536right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.654mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.94
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.81
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-21.81
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.139871%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.233
σᵣ STD / h0.600253%σ²ᵣ = 0.360×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.29×
σ ANNUALISED56.18%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.600%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-21.81negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-21.99downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.58right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.15mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.01
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1225.27%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.95%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.954%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.037%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.010%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.15%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.954%VaR₉₉−1.037%ES₉₅−1.010%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 20h duration
PEAK24.22$
−4.15% drawdown over 20h
23.21$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.33% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
35.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.152 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2386
Bollinger MA
$0.2351
Bollinger lower
$0.2315

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.026within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.528lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.929strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.215significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.929
H = 0.929STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=2
k=1+0.026k=2 ★-0.528k=3-0.176k=4+0.211k=5+0.0010+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.21)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.88very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.21)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$5.50M
Open interest (USD)
$6.95M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.79x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.33% · worst -1.06% · typical |Δ| 0.50%BEARISH SESSION -3.36%BEST+1.33%14hWORST-1.06%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.50%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.36%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.90%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.32%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.14%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.36%+0.70%-3.54%-0.96% · 12h-0.96% · 12h-0.96%12h0.33% · 13h0.33% · 13h0.33%13h1.33% · 14h1.33% · 14h1.33%14h★ BEST-0.92% · 15h-0.92% · 15h-0.92%15h-0.87% · 16h-0.87% · 16h-0.87%16h-0.52% · 17h-0.52% · 17h-0.52%17h0.03% · 18h0.03% · 18h0.03%18h-0.39% · 19h-0.39% · 19h-0.39%19h-0.35% · 20h-0.35% · 20h-0.35%20h0.82% · 21h0.82% · 21h0.82%21h0.63% · 22h0.63% · 22h0.63%22h-0.48% · 23h-0.48% · 23h-0.48%23h-1.06% · 00h-1.06% · 00h-1.06%00h▼ WORST-0.21% · 01h-0.21% · 01h-0.21%01h0.38% · 02h0.38% · 02h0.38%02h-0.29% · 03h-0.29% · 03h-0.29%03h-0.29% · 04h-0.29% · 04h-0.29%04h0.12% · 05h0.12% · 05h0.12%05h-0.10% · 06h-0.10% · 06h-0.10%06h0.54% · 07h0.54% · 07h0.54%07h-0.70% · 08h-0.70% · 08h-0.70%08h-0.31% · 09h-0.31% · 09h-0.31%09h-0.27% · 10h-0.27% · 10h-0.27%10h0.19% · 11h0.19% · 11h0.19%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.90%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 1.33% · worst -1.06% · typical |Δ| 0.504%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.34%)FINAL-3.34%MAX DD-4.18%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.69%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9666 · peak 1.0069 · range [0.9648, 1.0069]1.00690.9648break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0069UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.18% · moderate0%-4.18%▼ TROUGH -4.18%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.18%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.96%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.18%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9666 (-3.34%) · max DD -4.18% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-25.97 · σ=32.11UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -23.71 (+0.07σ vs μ)133.4166.710.00-66.71-133.41μ = -25.97-27.29-27.29-11.30-11.30-25.01-25.01-133.41-133.41-34.39-34.395.765.767.057.05-18.13-18.13-14.31-14.311.751.75-26.42-26.42-65.25-65.25-42.92-42.92-22.37-22.3716.6716.67-26.32-26.32-27.20-27.20-26.58-26.58-23.71-23.71v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -23.709 · range [-133.41, 16.67] · μ -25.967 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=52.7618 · σ=17.6136 · range [24.7851, 86.3348] · R²=0.512▼ FALLING -53.23%σ EXTREME 33.38%LAST 40.377086.334870.947355.559940.172524.7851μ = 52.7618max 86.3348min 24.7851dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 40.38% · range [24.79%, 86.33%] · μ 52.76% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-0.026 · σ=0.250CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.293 (-1.07σ vs μ)0.4570.2290.000-0.229-0.457μ = -0.0260.0120.0120.0930.093-0.157-0.1570.3600.360-0.020-0.0200.2060.2060.0130.0130.2470.2470.2510.2510.3370.337-0.012-0.0120.1290.129-0.049-0.049-0.457-0.457-0.159-0.159-0.426-0.426-0.325-0.325-0.252-0.252-0.293-0.293v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.293 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.3721
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5036
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
10.2195
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0685
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6060
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4829
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7816
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4345
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8305
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0060
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9705
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3318
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.705 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.47e-5 · top T=4.00h (41.4%) · top-3 cover 69.3%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈4.0cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.7e-41.3e-48.6e-54.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.82e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.82e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.32e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.32e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.58e-5 · 18.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.58e-5 · 18.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.82e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.82e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.94e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.94e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.73e-4 · 41.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.73e-4 · 41.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.06e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.06e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.67e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.67e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.51e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.51e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.42e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.42e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.79e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.79e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.12e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.12e-6 · 1.2% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=8.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 41.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.169e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-27.34×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -21.95400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.010
annualized -21.95
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -995% · APY -100% · Sharpe -16.49σ ann 60% · Sortino -10.85 · n 4999
-1979%-1569%-1159%-748%-338%72%-994.8%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)60.3%Ann. vol σ-1649.3%Sharpe (ann)-1084.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.2220.2280.2330.2380.2430.248t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:03 UTC
Snapshot age
3.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:08 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
305c4250be7f71a19e54f70e3a45a81e8902d3c0def27fc626b168d214949c5f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$10.98K
bid $9.60K · ask $1.38K
Depth within 10bp
$19.48K
bid $12.42K · ask $7.06K
Depth within 50bp
$90.19K
bid $41.98K · ask $48.21K
Mid price
0.232560
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.068
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.313
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-crv/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2326112.19bp0.2326303FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2327628.69bp0.2328408FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.23290714.90bp0.23304020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2325201.72bp0.2325201FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.2324743.69bp0.2323406FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.23221314.90bp0.23200020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-crv/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$23.81M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-crv/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.380 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$7.01M
real volume
Sell weight
$15.60M
real volume
Net delta
$8.58M
sellers net
Imbalance
-37.97%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
38.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-crv/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.99% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 15:00:00Z5.0h0.242210→0.2349802.985%6
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.238410→0.2342801.732%3
#32026-06-14 08:00:00Z2.0h0.235150→0.2321501.276%3

/api/asset/hl-crv/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
60.32%
σ per bar = 0.000263
Mean return (annualised)
-994.82%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-16.49
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.04%
peak 0.24 → trough 0.23 over 436 bars

/api/asset/hl-crv/risk · same metrics, JSON