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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BIO

BIO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-bio · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.17%
realized vol (ann.)
113.39%
max drawdown
2.49%
sharpe
-9.14
ulcer index
1.27%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.09%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-813.08
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.37%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-436.61
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.17%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.17%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-bio/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.032
24h Δ · live
-2.17%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
BIO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0322 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0316, 0.0328] · R²=0.255▼ FALLING -2.12%σ NORMAL 1.05%LAST 0.03160.03280.03250.03220.03190.0316μ = 0.0322max 0.0328min 0.0316dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=19,741,342 · μ=789653.7 · σ=1057770.2 · CV=1.34BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1501,014,2702,028,5403,042,8094,057,079μ = 7896544,057,07950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 4057079 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.2s
$mark $
$0.0316
$mid $
$0.0316
◉prev-day close
$0.0323
Δ24h Δ %
-2.168%
$24h vol $
$626.90k
◐open interest $
$1.82M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0322 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0316, 0.0328] · R²=0.255▼ FALLING -2.12%σ NORMAL 1.05%LAST 0.03160.03280.03250.03220.03190.0316μ = 0.0322max 0.0328min 0.0316dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0316 · 24h -2.17% · range $[0.0316, 0.0328]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0314, 0.0338] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=42%BEARISH -1.17%CLOSE 0.0316 vs OPEN 0.0320 (-1.17%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.03160.03380.03320.03260.03200.0314μ close = 0.0322O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.97%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.97%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.71%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.71%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.68%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.68%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.11%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.11%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.92%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.92%)1.5%O0.032 H0.034 L0.032 C0.033 (+1.50%)O0.032 H0.034 L0.032 C0.033 (+1.50%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (+0.26%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (+0.26%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (-0.70%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (-0.70%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (-0.26%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (-0.26%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.31%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.31%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (+0.62%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (+0.62%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.87%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.87%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.33%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.33%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.57%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.57%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.18%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.18%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.17%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.17%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.84%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.84%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-1.05%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-1.05%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (-1.06%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (-1.06%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.88%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.88%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.18%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.18%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.96%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.96%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.01%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.01%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-1.08%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-1.08%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.20%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.20%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=19,741,342 · μ=789653.7 · σ=1057770.2 · CV=1.34BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1501,014,2702,028,5403,042,8094,057,079μ = 789654266,626 · 6.6% peak266,626 · 6.6% peak238,743 · 5.9% peak238,743 · 5.9% peak452,430 · 11.2% peak452,430 · 11.2% peak473,767 · 11.7% peak473,767 · 11.7% peak133,362 · 3.3% peak133,362 · 3.3% peak4,057,0794,057,079 · 100.0% peak4,057,079 · 100.0% peak535,574 · 13.2% peak535,574 · 13.2% peak663,886 · 16.4% peak663,886 · 16.4% peak304,255 · 7.5% peak304,255 · 7.5% peak92,342 · 2.3% peak92,342 · 2.3% peak106,344 · 2.6% peak106,344 · 2.6% peak268,217 · 6.6% peak268,217 · 6.6% peak155,375 · 3.8% peak155,375 · 3.8% peak220,162 · 5.4% peak220,162 · 5.4% peak2,161,527 · 53.3% peak2,161,527 · 53.3% peak264,294 · 6.5% peak264,294 · 6.5% peak1,311,533 · 32.3% peak1,311,533 · 32.3% peak270,352 · 6.7% peak270,352 · 6.7% peak570,165 · 14.1% peak570,165 · 14.1% peak3,510,497 · 86.5% peak3,510,497 · 86.5% peak143,492 · 3.5% peak143,492 · 3.5% peak2,036,616 · 50.2% peak2,036,616 · 50.2% peak404,646 · 10.0% peak404,646 · 10.0% peak938,165 · 23.1% peak938,165 · 23.1% peak161,893 · 4.0% peak161,893 · 4.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 19741342 · peak 4057079 · CV 1.34

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0009 · σ=0.0071 · skew=0.29 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.88 (mesokurtic)65320 3-114.88bpbin -114.88bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -114.88bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1-92.74bpbin -92.74bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -92.74bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-70.60bpbin -70.60bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -70.60bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 2-48.46bpbin -48.46bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -48.46bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 6-26.31bpbin -26.31bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -26.31bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 1-4.17bpbin -4.17bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -4.17bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 217.97bpbin 17.97bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 17.97bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 140.11bpbin 40.11bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 40.11bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 262.25bpbin 62.25bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 62.25bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 184.39bpbin 84.39bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 84.39bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2106.53bpbin 106.53bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 106.53bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1128.67bpbin 128.67bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 128.67bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.36 · kurt=-0.86 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0316
Mid price
$0.0316
24h change
-2.17%
Mark–mid spread
4.11 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0323

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.03)
μ MEAN0.0322$95% CI: [0.0320$, 0.0323$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.05%
med MEDIAN0.0321$Q₁ 0.0319$ · Q₃ 0.0324$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0012$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0005$)
min 0.0316$Q₁ 0.0319$med 0.0321$Q₃ 0.0324$max 0.0328$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.071approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.027platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.91
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.66
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-11.07
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.089127%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.118
σᵣ STD / h0.753830%σ²ᵣ = 0.568×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.46×
σ ANNUALISED70.55%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.754%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-11.07negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-12.19downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.38approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.78mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.10
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-780.75%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.13%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.130%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.231%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.198%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.79%12h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.130%VaR₉₉−1.231%ES₉₅−1.198%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 12h duration
PEAK3.28$
−3.79% drawdown over 12h
3.16$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.94% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
41.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.120 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0329
Bollinger MA
$0.0322
Bollinger lower
$0.0315

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.079within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.124lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.962strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.802significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.962
H = 0.962STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.079k=2-0.124k=3-0.324k=4-0.244k=5+0.2120+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.80)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.80)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$626.90k
Open interest (USD)
$1.82M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.34x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.40% · worst -1.26% · typical |Δ| 0.64%BEARISH SESSION -2.14%BEST+1.40%16hWORST-1.26%05hTYPICAL |Δ|0.64%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.14%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.62%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.79%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.28%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.14%+1.48%-2.38%-0.72% · 12h-0.72% · 12h-0.72%12h-0.73% · 13h-0.73% · 13h-0.73%13h0.09% · 14h0.09% · 14h0.09%14h0.97% · 15h0.97% · 15h0.97%15h1.40% · 16h1.40% · 16h1.40%16h★ BEST0.48% · 17h0.48% · 17h0.48%17h-0.57% · 18h-0.57% · 18h-0.57%18h-0.21% · 19h-0.21% · 19h-0.21%19h-0.27% · 20h-0.27% · 20h-0.27%20h0.63% · 21h0.63% · 21h0.63%21h-0.87% · 22h-0.87% · 22h-0.87%22h-0.31% · 23h-0.31% · 23h-0.31%23h-0.57% · 00h-0.57% · 00h-0.57%00h0.27% · 01h0.27% · 01h0.27%01h-0.31% · 02h-0.31% · 02h-0.31%02h0.70% · 03h0.70% · 03h0.70%03h-1.09% · 04h-1.09% · 04h-1.09%04h-1.26% · 05h-1.26% · 05h-1.26%05h▼ WORST0.89% · 06h0.89% · 06h0.89%06h-0.25% · 07h-0.25% · 07h-0.25%07h1.16% · 08h1.16% · 08h1.16%08h-0.07% · 09h-0.07% · 09h-0.07%09h-1.14% · 10h-1.14% · 10h-1.14%10h-0.35% · 11h-0.35% · 11h-0.35%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.28%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 1.40% · worst -1.26% · typical |Δ| 0.638%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.18%)FINAL-2.18%MAX DD-3.82%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.47%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9782 · peak 1.0147 · range [0.9760, 1.0147]1.01470.9760break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0147UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.82% · moderate0%-3.82%▼ TROUGH -3.82%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.82%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.45%bar 2-5 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.82%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9782 (-2.18%) · max DD -3.82% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-9.25 · σ=30.71MIXED EDGELAST 4.41 (+0.44σ vs μ)49.8324.910.00-24.91-49.83μ = -9.2526.4426.4430.4230.4245.7045.7036.1636.1631.1931.19-21.57-21.57-49.83-49.83-49.82-49.82-31.94-31.94-33.08-33.08-29.83-29.83-32.57-32.57-46.35-46.35-13.88-13.88-23.36-23.362.282.28-9.76-9.76-10.41-10.414.414.41v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 4.408 · range [-49.83, 45.70] · μ -9.253 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=70.4000 · σ=16.6157 · range [46.9091, 97.8721] · R²=0.178▼ FALLING -2.74%σ EXTREME 23.60%LAST 79.656697.872185.131472.390659.649946.9091μ = 70.4000max 97.8721min 46.9091dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 79.66% · range [46.91%, 97.87%] · μ 70.40% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.117 · σ=0.343MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.030 (+0.25σ vs μ)0.5470.2740.000-0.274-0.547μ = -0.1170.5470.5470.2540.2540.3710.3710.5000.5000.1830.183-0.517-0.517-0.425-0.425-0.402-0.402-0.444-0.444-0.438-0.438-0.130-0.130-0.542-0.542-0.052-0.052-0.266-0.266-0.298-0.298-0.180-0.180-0.062-0.062-0.291-0.291-0.030-0.030v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.030 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.1891
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5518
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.0594
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2151
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5560
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7377
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4257
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0661
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.0075
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9940
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.998 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.51e-5 · top T=8.00h (21.1%) · top-3 cover 47.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.4e-41.0e-47.0e-53.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.05e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.05e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.17e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.17e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.39e-4 · 21.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.39e-4 · 21.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.77e-5 · 13.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.77e-5 · 13.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.94e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.94e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.22e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.22e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.71e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.71e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.23e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.23e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.91e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.91e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.58e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.58e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.43e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.43e-5 · 2.2% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 21.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.607e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -7.86× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-7.86×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -14.84400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.006
annualized -14.84
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -9.67σ ann 123% · Sortino -9.61 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1200%-930%-661%-391%-122%148%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)123.1%Ann. vol σ-967.1%Sharpe (ann)-960.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0300.0310.0320.0320.0330.034t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:26 UTC
Snapshot age
2.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4978baf6eac6a8d07afa6f28bd32d1ef40ff21ae4cfc5f12afd6775b6e4f4763 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,504HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.73

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$965
bid $548 · ask $418
Depth within 10bp
$8.08K
bid $6.30K · ask $1.78K
Depth within 50bp
$42.91K
bid $22.90K · ask $20.02K
Mid price
0.031628
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.069
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.109
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-bio/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0316455.37bp0.0316493FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03166912.89bp0.03168310FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03169119.97bp0.03172420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0316154.05bp0.0316114FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0315979.73bp0.03157110FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03156519.85bp0.03152220PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-bio/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$19.74M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-bio/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.471 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$14.33M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.15M
real volume
Net delta
$9.18M
buyers net
Imbalance
47.13%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
47.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-bio/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.32% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.032310→0.0315602.321%4
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h0.032665→0.0320851.776%5
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h0.032134→0.0316361.550%2

/api/asset/hl-bio/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
123.09%
σ per bar = 0.000537
Mean return (annualised)
-1190.46%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.67
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.11%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 1349 bars

/api/asset/hl-bio/risk · same metrics, JSON