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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BERA

BERA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-bera · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.10%
realized vol (ann.)
82.62%
max drawdown
1.76%
sharpe
-16.67
ulcer index
1.08%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.99%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1278.60
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.69%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.96
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-815.93
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.96
upside/downside
roll spread
2.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.10%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.10%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-bera/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.251
24h Δ · live
-3.10%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
BERA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2568 · σ=0.0035 · range [0.2513, 0.2623] · R²=0.526▼ FALLING -2.72%σ NORMAL 1.35%LAST 0.25130.26230.25960.25680.25410.2513μ = 0.2568max 0.2623min 0.2513dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.25
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,465,541 · μ=58621.6 · σ=64924.0 · CV=1.11BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=9070,557141,114211,671282,228μ = 58622282,228.450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 282228 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.4s
$mark $
$0.2512
$mid $
$0.2513
◉prev-day close
$0.2593
Δ24h Δ %
-3.097%
$24h vol $
$359.21k
◐open interest $
$1.45M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2568 · σ=0.0035 · range [0.2513, 0.2623] · R²=0.526▼ FALLING -2.72%σ NORMAL 1.35%LAST 0.25130.26230.25960.25680.25410.2513μ = 0.2568max 0.2623min 0.2513dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2512 · 24h -3.10% · range $[0.2513, 0.2623]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.2502, 0.2657] · σ=0.0035 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=35%BEARISH -2.01%CLOSE 0.2513 vs OPEN 0.2565 (-2.01%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.25130.26570.26190.25800.25410.2502μ close = 0.2568O0.256 H0.260 L0.256 C0.258 (+0.74%)O0.256 H0.260 L0.256 C0.258 (+0.74%)O0.258 H0.260 L0.258 C0.259 (+0.05%)O0.258 H0.260 L0.258 C0.259 (+0.05%)O0.258 H0.259 L0.257 C0.257 (-0.38%)O0.258 H0.259 L0.257 C0.257 (-0.38%)O0.257 H0.258 L0.256 C0.258 (+0.19%)O0.257 H0.258 L0.256 C0.258 (+0.19%)O0.258 H0.258 L0.257 C0.257 (-0.25%)O0.258 H0.258 L0.257 C0.257 (-0.25%)O0.257 H0.266 L0.255 C0.257 (-0.23%)O0.257 H0.266 L0.255 C0.257 (-0.23%)1.3%O0.256 H0.264 L0.255 C0.260 (+1.32%)O0.256 H0.264 L0.255 C0.260 (+1.32%)O0.259 H0.263 L0.259 C0.261 (+0.53%)O0.259 H0.263 L0.259 C0.261 (+0.53%)O0.260 H0.262 L0.260 C0.261 (+0.18%)O0.260 H0.262 L0.260 C0.261 (+0.18%)O0.261 H0.261 L0.259 C0.260 (-0.16%)O0.261 H0.261 L0.259 C0.260 (-0.16%)O0.260 H0.263 L0.260 C0.262 (+0.83%)O0.260 H0.263 L0.260 C0.262 (+0.83%)O0.262 H0.263 L0.260 C0.260 (-0.87%)O0.262 H0.263 L0.260 C0.260 (-0.87%)O0.260 H0.262 L0.259 C0.261 (+0.37%)O0.260 H0.262 L0.259 C0.261 (+0.37%)O0.261 H0.261 L0.258 C0.259 (-0.90%)O0.261 H0.261 L0.258 C0.259 (-0.90%)O0.259 H0.260 L0.258 C0.258 (-0.18%)O0.259 H0.260 L0.258 C0.258 (-0.18%)O0.258 H0.259 L0.256 C0.256 (-0.71%)O0.258 H0.259 L0.256 C0.256 (-0.71%)O0.256 H0.257 L0.255 C0.255 (-0.39%)O0.256 H0.257 L0.255 C0.255 (-0.39%)O0.255 H0.255 L0.252 C0.253 (-0.93%)O0.255 H0.255 L0.252 C0.253 (-0.93%)O0.253 H0.253 L0.250 C0.252 (-0.33%)O0.253 H0.253 L0.250 C0.252 (-0.33%)O0.252 H0.259 L0.252 C0.252 (+0.00%)O0.252 H0.259 L0.252 C0.252 (+0.00%)O0.253 H0.254 L0.252 C0.253 (+0.19%)O0.253 H0.254 L0.252 C0.253 (+0.19%)O0.253 H0.256 L0.252 C0.253 (+0.14%)O0.253 H0.256 L0.252 C0.253 (+0.14%)O0.253 H0.253 L0.252 C0.253 (-0.08%)O0.253 H0.253 L0.252 C0.253 (-0.08%)O0.253 H0.254 L0.251 C0.251 (-0.66%)O0.253 H0.254 L0.251 C0.251 (-0.66%)O0.251 H0.252 L0.251 C0.251 (+0.04%)O0.251 H0.252 L0.251 C0.251 (+0.04%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,465,541 · μ=58621.6 · σ=64924.0 · CV=1.11BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=9070,557141,114211,671282,228μ = 5862273,189.8 · 25.9% peak73,189.8 · 25.9% peak33,256.3 · 11.8% peak33,256.3 · 11.8% peak18,638.5 · 6.6% peak18,638.5 · 6.6% peak17,810.6 · 6.3% peak17,810.6 · 6.3% peak19,352.4 · 6.9% peak19,352.4 · 6.9% peak179,161.2 · 63.5% peak179,161.2 · 63.5% peak282,228.4282,228.4 · 100.0% peak282,228.4 · 100.0% peak72,996.2 · 25.9% peak72,996.2 · 25.9% peak38,435.1 · 13.6% peak38,435.1 · 13.6% peak52,501.7 · 18.6% peak52,501.7 · 18.6% peak31,073.6 · 11.0% peak31,073.6 · 11.0% peak18,996.5 · 6.7% peak18,996.5 · 6.7% peak50,127.9 · 17.8% peak50,127.9 · 17.8% peak45,437.1 · 16.1% peak45,437.1 · 16.1% peak32,567 · 11.5% peak32,567 · 11.5% peak15,289.9 · 5.4% peak15,289.9 · 5.4% peak14,422 · 5.1% peak14,422 · 5.1% peak43,575.9 · 15.4% peak43,575.9 · 15.4% peak26,977.4 · 9.6% peak26,977.4 · 9.6% peak166,508.1 · 59.0% peak166,508.1 · 59.0% peak15,372.7 · 5.4% peak15,372.7 · 5.4% peak84,782.6 · 30.0% peak84,782.6 · 30.0% peak15,627.3 · 5.5% peak15,627.3 · 5.5% peak113,214.2 · 40.1% peak113,214.2 · 40.1% peak3,998.6 · 1.4% peak3,998.6 · 1.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1465541 · peak 282228 · CV 1.11

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0009 · σ=0.0051 · skew=0.37 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.19 (mesokurtic)43210 4-82.01bpbin -82.01bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -82.01bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 1-64.10bpbin -64.10bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -64.10bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-46.19bpbin -46.19bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -46.19bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-28.29bpbin -28.29bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -28.29bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-10.38bpbin -10.38bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -10.38bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 47.53bpbin 7.53bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 7.53bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 325.44bpbin 25.44bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 25.44bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 243.35bpbin 43.35bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 43.35bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak61.26bp 179.17bpbin 79.17bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 79.17bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak97.07bp 1114.98bpbin 114.98bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 114.98bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.48 · kurt=0.26 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2512
Mid price
$0.2513
24h change
-3.10%
Mark–mid spread
1.59 bps
Prev-day close
$0.2593

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.44)
μ MEAN0.2568$95% CI: [0.2554$, 0.2581$]
σ STD DEV0.0035$σ² = 0.119×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.35%
med MEDIAN0.2574$Q₁ 0.2532$ · Q₃ 0.2598$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0110$ · IQR 0.0066$ (1.349σ→0.0047$)
min 0.2513$Q₁ 0.2532$med 0.2574$Q₃ 0.2598$max 0.2623$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.196approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.435platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.18
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.70
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.18
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-20.41
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.115108%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.218
σᵣ STD / h0.527843%σ²ᵣ = 0.279×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.59×
σ ANNUALISED49.40%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.528%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-20.41negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-19.78downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.51right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.62mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.97
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1008.34%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.89%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.890%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.906%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.901%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.19%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.890%VaR₉₉−0.906%ES₉₅−0.901%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK26.23$
−4.19% drawdown over 14h
25.13$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.01× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.38% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
33.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.163 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2641
Bollinger MA
$0.2565
Bollinger lower
$0.2488

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.073within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.320lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.727strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.050significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.727
H = 0.727STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.073k=2+0.320k=3-0.104k=4+0.152k=5-0.2680+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.05)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.53high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.05)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$359.21k
Open interest (USD)
$1.45M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.25x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.24% · worst -0.91% · typical |Δ| 0.41%MILD BEARISH -2.76%BEST+1.24%17hWORST-0.91%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.41%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.76%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.38% · Σ -3.07%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.13%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.18% · Σ +1.44%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.76%+1.52%-2.76%0.09% · 12h0.09% · 12h0.09%12h-0.47% · 13h-0.47% · 13h-0.47%13h0.17% · 14h0.17% · 14h0.17%14h-0.19% · 15h-0.19% · 15h-0.19%15h-0.29% · 16h-0.29% · 16h-0.29%16h1.24% · 17h1.24% · 17h1.24%17h★ BEST0.35% · 18h0.35% · 18h0.35%18h0.04% · 19h0.04% · 19h0.04%19h-0.20% · 20h-0.20% · 20h-0.20%20h0.78% · 21h0.78% · 21h0.78%21h-0.88% · 22h-0.88% · 22h-0.88%22h0.40% · 23h0.40% · 23h0.40%23h-0.89% · 00h-0.89% · 00h-0.89%00h-0.17% · 01h-0.17% · 01h-0.17%01h-0.79% · 02h-0.79% · 02h-0.79%02h-0.46% · 03h-0.46% · 03h-0.46%03h-0.91% · 04h-0.91% · 04h-0.91%04h▼ WORST-0.31% · 05h-0.31% · 05h-0.31%05h0.18% · 06h0.18% · 06h0.18%06h0.29% · 07h0.29% · 07h0.29%07h0.02% · 08h0.02% · 08h0.02%08h-0.09% · 09h-0.09% · 09h-0.09%09h-0.65% · 10h-0.65% · 10h-0.65%10h-0.01% · 11h-0.01% · 11h-0.01%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.44%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 6BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.24% · worst -0.91% · typical |Δ| 0.410%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.76%)FINAL-2.76%MAX DD-4.21%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.52%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9724 · peak 1.0152 · range [0.9724, 1.0152]1.01520.9724break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0152UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.21% · moderate0%-4.21%▼ TROUGH -4.21%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -4.21%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.77%bar 3-6 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.20%bar 10-10 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.21%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9724 (-2.76%) · max DD -4.21% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-26.35 · σ=56.17MIXED EDGELAST -12.75 (+0.24σ vs μ)174.3287.160.00-87.16-174.32μ = -26.3514.1214.1220.5920.5937.3637.3625.7625.7650.1950.1927.8927.8913.2413.24-17.47-17.47-22.55-22.55-33.93-33.93-86.09-86.09-86.17-86.17-174.32-174.32-95.72-95.72-63.63-63.63-41.35-41.35-29.96-29.96-25.83-25.83-12.75-12.75v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -12.747 · range [-174.32, 50.19] · μ -26.348 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=49.8026 · σ=12.1147 · range [29.6157, 69.7232] · R²=0.527▼ FALLING -46.55%σ EXTREME 24.33%LAST 30.493169.723259.696349.669439.642629.6157μ = 49.8026max 69.7232min 29.6157dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 30.49% · range [29.62%, 69.72%] · μ 49.80% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.219 · σ=0.405MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.194 (+1.02σ vs μ)0.7350.3680.000-0.368-0.735μ = -0.219-0.213-0.213-0.068-0.068-0.122-0.122-0.063-0.063-0.357-0.357-0.237-0.237-0.702-0.702-0.680-0.680-0.670-0.670-0.606-0.606-0.735-0.735-0.454-0.454-0.731-0.731-0.049-0.0490.3700.3700.5060.5060.3090.3090.1520.1520.1940.194v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.194 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.4367
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4876
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.4539
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2637
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.3305
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9148
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2866
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7744
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6111
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0216
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.6820
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4952
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.208 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.08e-5 · top T=2.00h (26.4%) · top-3 cover 53.4%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)9.7e-57.3e-54.9e-52.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.04e-5 · 13.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.04e-5 · 13.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.94e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.94e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.16e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.16e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.60e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.60e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.31e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.31e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.76e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.76e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.22e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.22e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.38e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.38e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.07e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.07e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.26e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.26e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.51e-5 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.51e-5 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.74e-5 · 26.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.74e-5 · 26.4% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=24.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 26.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.691e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-24.57×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -22.82400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.010
annualized -22.82
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -22.39σ ann 91% · Sortino -17.57 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2687%-2128%-1568%-1009%-450%109%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)91.1%Ann. vol σ-2239.0%Sharpe (ann)-1757.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.2410.2460.2520.2580.2640.270t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:26 UTC
Snapshot age
5.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:32 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d27e1d4939ca4c874cfe5e4ed4e05a2812446f1452123d02cd398fa9dee7bed0 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,504HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.73

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$941
bid $741 · ask $200
Depth within 10bp
$5.41K
bid $2.59K · ask $2.82K
Depth within 50bp
$45.34K
bid $23.14K · ask $22.20K
Mid price
0.251275
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.023
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.045
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-bera/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2514035.11bp0.2514203FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.25161513.55bp0.25180013FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.25183322.19bp0.25230020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2511594.63bp0.2511403FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.25101410.38bp0.25094011FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.25082717.82bp0.25049020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-bera/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.47M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-bera/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.138 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$792.59K
real volume
Sell weight
$599.76K
real volume
Net delta
$192.83K
buyers net
Imbalance
13.85%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
13.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-bera/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 3.94% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 00:00:00Z6.0h0.262330→0.2520003.938%7
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z0ms0.262330→0.2600400.873%1
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h0.253230→0.2513300.750%2

/api/asset/hl-bera/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
91.12%
σ per bar = 0.000397
Mean return (annualised)
-2040.20%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-22.39
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.05%
peak 0.26 → trough 0.25 over 3001 bars

/api/asset/hl-bera/risk · same metrics, JSON