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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

HMSTR

HMSTR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-hmstr · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -7.69%
realized vol (ann.)
392.96%
max drawdown
5.17%
sharpe
-15.65
ulcer index
3.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.69%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.14%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2048.58
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.66%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1318.31
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
14.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-7.69%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 43%
  • 24h change -7.69%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 59.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-HMSTR/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.000
24h Δ · live
-7.69%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
HMSTR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0002, 0.0002] · R²=0.180▼ FALLING -8.15%σ NORMAL 3.63%LAST 0.00020.00020.00020.00020.00020.0002μ = 0.0002max 0.0002min 0.0002dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,450,058,290 · μ=98002331.6 · σ=96754779.3 · CV=0.99BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120105,961,601211,923,202317,884,803423,846,404μ = 98002332423,846,40450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 423846404 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.5s
$mark $
$0.0002
$mid $
$0.0002
◉prev-day close
$0.0002
Δ24h Δ %
-7.692%
$24h vol $
$408.65k
◐open interest $
$195.00k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0002, 0.0002] · R²=0.180▼ FALLING -8.15%σ NORMAL 3.63%LAST 0.00020.00020.00020.00020.00020.0002μ = 0.0002max 0.0002min 0.0002dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0002 · 24h -7.69% · range $[0.0002, 0.0002]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0002, 0.0002] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.04 · bodyµ=51%BEARISH -7.14%CLOSE 0.0002 vs OPEN 0.0002 (-7.14%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00020.00020.00020.00020.00020.0002μ close = 0.0002O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.10%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.10%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.08%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.08%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.63%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.63%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.31%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.31%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)-4.0%O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.98%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.98%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.51%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.51%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+2.42%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+2.42%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.78%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.78%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.20%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.20%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.37%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.37%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.82%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.82%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.23%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.23%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+4.24%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+4.24%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+3.51%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+3.51%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.81%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.81%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.31%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.31%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+4.17%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+4.17%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.31%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.31%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,450,058,290 · μ=98002331.6 · σ=96754779.3 · CV=0.99BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120105,961,601211,923,202317,884,803423,846,404μ = 9800233291,797,862 · 21.7% peak91,797,862 · 21.7% peak75,168,686 · 17.7% peak75,168,686 · 17.7% peak56,233,535 · 13.3% peak56,233,535 · 13.3% peak105,581,383 · 24.9% peak105,581,383 · 24.9% peak73,861,462 · 17.4% peak73,861,462 · 17.4% peak117,898,041 · 27.8% peak117,898,041 · 27.8% peak71,712,466 · 16.9% peak71,712,466 · 16.9% peak96,830,802 · 22.8% peak96,830,802 · 22.8% peak375,965,370 · 88.7% peak375,965,370 · 88.7% peak38,167,565 · 9.0% peak38,167,565 · 9.0% peak41,639,154 · 9.8% peak41,639,154 · 9.8% peak105,204,607 · 24.8% peak105,204,607 · 24.8% peak72,652,493 · 17.1% peak72,652,493 · 17.1% peak55,381,881 · 13.1% peak55,381,881 · 13.1% peak82,523,681 · 19.5% peak82,523,681 · 19.5% peak43,556,251 · 10.3% peak43,556,251 · 10.3% peak162,283,260 · 38.3% peak162,283,260 · 38.3% peak30,982,799 · 7.3% peak30,982,799 · 7.3% peak423,846,404423,846,404 · 100.0% peak423,846,404 · 100.0% peak51,491,481 · 12.1% peak51,491,481 · 12.1% peak33,314,269 · 7.9% peak33,314,269 · 7.9% peak63,843,047 · 15.1% peak63,843,047 · 15.1% peak39,742,916 · 9.4% peak39,742,916 · 9.4% peak112,928,401 · 26.6% peak112,928,401 · 26.6% peak27,450,474 · 6.5% peak27,450,474 · 6.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2450058290 · peak 423846404 · CV 0.99

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0034 · σ=0.0226 · skew=0.56 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.55 (mesokurtic)54310 4-314.49bpbin -314.49bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -314.49bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 3-245.73bpbin -245.73bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -245.73bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 3-176.97bpbin -176.97bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -176.97bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-108.20bpbin -108.20bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -108.20bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-39.44bpbin -39.44bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -39.44bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 529.32bpbin 29.32bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 29.32bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 398.09bpbin 98.09bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 98.09bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak166.85bp 1235.61bpbin 235.61bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 235.61bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1304.37bpbin 304.37bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 304.37bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak373.14bp 2441.90bpbin 441.90bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 441.90bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.51 · kurt=-0.58 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0002
Mid price
$0.0002
24h change
-7.69%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0002

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.74)
μ MEAN0.0002$95% CI: [0.0002$, 0.0002$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.63%
med MEDIAN0.0002$Q₁ 0.0002$ · Q₃ 0.0002$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0002$Q₁ 0.0002$med 0.0002$Q₃ 0.0002$max 0.0002$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.742right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.363mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.93
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.55
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-14.08
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.354321%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.150
σᵣ STD / h2.354559%σ²ᵣ = 5.544×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.65×
σ ANNUALISED220.37%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 2.355%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-14.08negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-13.53downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.54right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.42mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.96
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-3103.85%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKEXTREME · 95% VaR 3.47%
VaR₉₅ (h)3.471%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.489%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)3.489%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN11.96%15h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−3.471%VaR₉₉−3.489%ES₉₅−3.489%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 15h duration
PEAK0.02$
−11.96% drawdown over 15h
0.02$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.01× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.01× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +13.58% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
42.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.550 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0002
Bollinger MA
$0.0002
Bollinger lower
$0.0002

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.107within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.031lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.866strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.247significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.866
H = 0.866STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.107k=2+0.031k=3-0.212k=4+0.058k=5+0.1280+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.25)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.84very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.25)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$408.65k
Open interest (USD)
$195.00k
Vol / OI (turnover)
2.10x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-6.391× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-3.196× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.598×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.76% · worst -3.49% · typical |Δ| 1.93%BEARISH SESSION -8.50%BEST+4.76%10hWORST-3.49%21hTYPICAL |Δ|1.93%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-8.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.83%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.96% · Σ +7.72%US · 16-24 UTCμ -1.80% · Σ -14.39%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -8.50%+0.00%-12.73%0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-1.64% · 18h-1.64% · 18h-1.64%18h-3.37% · 19h-3.37% · 19h-3.37%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-3.49% · 21h-3.49% · 21h-3.49%21h▼ WORST0.59% · 22h0.59% · 22h0.59%22h-2.99% · 23h-2.99% · 23h-2.99%23h2.40% · 00h2.40% · 00h2.40%00h-1.79% · 01h-1.79% · 01h-1.79%01h1.20% · 02h1.20% · 02h1.20%02h0.59% · 03h0.59% · 03h0.59%03h-2.40% · 04h-2.40% · 04h-2.40%04h1.20% · 05h1.20% · 05h1.20%05h-1.20% · 06h-1.20% · 06h-1.20%06h-1.83% · 07h-1.83% · 07h-1.83%07h0.00% · 08h0.00% · 08h·08h1.23% · 09h1.23% · 09h1.23%09h4.76% · 10h4.76% · 10h4.76%10h★ BEST2.87% · 11h2.87% · 11h2.87%11h-2.29% · 12h-2.29% · 12h-2.29%12h-2.34% · 13h-2.34% · 13h-2.34%13h-0.59% · 14h-0.59% · 14h-0.59%14h4.08% · 15h4.08% · 15h4.08%15h-3.49% · 16h-3.49% · 16h-3.49%16hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+7.72%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 50% down · 13% flat
9 up bars · 12 down · best 4.76% · worst -3.49% · typical |Δ| 1.931%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -8.75%FINAL-8.75%MAX DD-12.22%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9125 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.8778, 1.0000]1.00000.8778break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -12.22% · significant0%-12.22%▼ TROUGH -12.22%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -12.22%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -12.22%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9125 (-8.75%) · max DD -12.22% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-12.77 · σ=36.27MIXED EDGELAST -8.90 (+0.11σ vs μ)95.9547.970.00-47.97-95.95μ = -12.77-68.69-68.69-95.95-95.95-43.19-43.19-36.31-36.31-26.43-26.43-0.00-0.00-21.30-21.309.999.99-23.46-23.46-23.78-23.78-39.81-39.81-30.23-30.2327.5927.5936.1036.1027.0627.0623.3023.3019.7519.7531.5331.53-8.90-8.90v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -8.898 · range [-95.95, 36.10] · μ -12.775 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=209.6123 · σ=51.2438 · range [133.3890, 300.6278] · R²=0.345▲ RISING +71.65%σ EXTREME 24.45%LAST 288.7222300.6278258.8181217.0084175.1987133.3890μ = 209.6123max 300.6278min 133.3890dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 288.72% · range [133.39%, 300.63%] · μ 209.61% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.287 · σ=0.454MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.355 (-0.15σ vs μ)0.8260.4130.000-0.413-0.826μ = -0.287-0.587-0.587-0.826-0.826-0.619-0.619-0.742-0.742-0.657-0.657-0.732-0.732-0.559-0.559-0.543-0.543-0.561-0.561-0.292-0.292-0.638-0.638-0.274-0.2740.2680.2680.5300.5300.1430.1430.3280.3280.4240.4240.2480.248-0.355-0.355v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.355 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.3507
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5090
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.3126
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8063
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5535
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1049
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7845
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4328
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0276
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2450
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8065
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.925 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.33e-4 · top T=2.40h (25.0%) · top-3 cover 51.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.6e-31.2e-38.0e-44.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.36e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.36e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.17e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.17e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.80e-4 · 7.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.80e-4 · 7.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.31e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.31e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.42e-4 · 13.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.42e-4 · 13.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.15e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.15e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.46e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.46e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.76e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.76e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.49e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.49e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.60e-3 · 25.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.60e-3 · 25.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.40e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.40e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.19e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.19e-5 · 0.7% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=4.80h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 25.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.396e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 2.25× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.23× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.18%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.18%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
2.25×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.23×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.12×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.56×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.3×2.6×3.9×5.3×6.6×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.56× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 10.37400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.56× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.005
annualized 10.37
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.10%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.91×0.95×0.99×1.03×1.06×1.10×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 9.20σ ann 413% · Sortino 2.78 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)413.1%Ann. vol σ920.4%Sharpe (ann)278.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.026% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:18:18 UTC
Snapshot age
1.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:18:19 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
f5d155017d219cdbaa9d89d21a0b7614226272b027af9577b1848d4a7e4cd925 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,069.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.45HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.29

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$16.26K
bid $10.56K · ask $5.71K
Mid price
0.000168
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
59.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.010
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.006
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-HMSTR/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00016929.67bp0.0001691FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00016955.07bp0.0001702FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.000177527.36bp0.00026920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00016829.67bp0.0001681FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00016829.67bp0.0001681FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.000163312.18bp0.00014020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-HMSTR/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.45B

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-HMSTR/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.112 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 14
2 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.27B
real volume
Sell weight
$1.01B
real volume
Net delta
$255.21M
buyers net
Imbalance
11.18%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
11.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-HMSTR/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 10.33% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 18:00:00Z8.0h0.000184→0.00016510.326%9
#22026-06-14 12:00:00Z2.0h0.000177→0.0001685.085%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z5.0h0.000169→0.0001624.142%6

/api/asset/hl-HMSTR/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
413.07%
σ per bar = 0.001801
Mean return (annualised)
3802.03%
μ per bar = 0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
9.20
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.82%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 1405 bars

/api/asset/hl-HMSTR/risk · same metrics, JSON