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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ZEC

ZEC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-zec · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.95%
realized vol (ann.)
71.86%
max drawdown
1.71%
sharpe
-33.02
ulcer index
0.99%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.87%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2397.20
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.60%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.96
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1484.58
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.96
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.95%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +1.95%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-zec/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH702ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$423.390
24h Δ · live
1.95%
24h vol · live
$75.8M
ZEC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=419.6864 · σ=5.8989 · range [408.4400, 427.4600] · R²=0.658▲ RISING +2.37%σ NORMAL 1.41%LAST 423.4900427.4600422.7050417.9500413.1950408.4400μ = 419.6864max 427.4600min 408.4400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $423.49
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=184,929 · μ=7397.2 · σ=7321.2 · CV=0.99BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1109,33218,66427,99637,327μ = 739737,327.4950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 37327 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
702ms
$mark $
$423.39
$mid $
$423.385
◉prev-day close
$415.3
Δ24h Δ %
+1.948%
$24h vol $
$75.81M
◐open interest $
$185.06M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=419.6864 · σ=5.8989 · range [408.4400, 427.4600] · R²=0.658▲ RISING +2.37%σ NORMAL 1.41%LAST 423.4900427.4600422.7050417.9500413.1950408.4400μ = 419.6864max 427.4600min 408.4400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $423.3900 · 24h 1.95% · range $[408.4400, 427.4600]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 16 · down 9 (64% up) · range [405.0000, 430.3800] · σ=5.8989 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%STRONG BULLISH +3.44%CLOSE 423.4900 vs OPEN 409.3900 (+3.44%)&#9650; CLOSE 423.4900430.3800424.0350417.6900411.3450405.0000μ close = 419.6864O409.390 H415.740 L409.040 C413.670 (+1.05%)O409.390 H415.740 L409.040 C413.670 (+1.05%)O413.440 H418.230 L412.680 C416.950 (+0.85%)O413.440 H418.230 L412.680 C416.950 (+0.85%)O416.780 H418.580 L411.740 C412.230 (-1.09%)O416.780 H418.580 L411.740 C412.230 (-1.09%)O412.230 H415.260 L411.130 C413.290 (+0.26%)O412.230 H415.260 L411.130 C413.290 (+0.26%)O413.420 H417.640 L412.560 C416.720 (+0.80%)O413.420 H417.640 L412.560 C416.720 (+0.80%)O416.850 H417.220 L405.000 C408.440 (-2.02%)O416.850 H417.220 L405.000 C408.440 (-2.02%)O408.350 H416.670 L405.900 C409.770 (+0.35%)O408.350 H416.670 L405.900 C409.770 (+0.35%)O409.750 H414.860 L409.090 C414.040 (+1.05%)O409.750 H414.860 L409.090 C414.040 (+1.05%)O413.900 H416.320 L412.290 C412.510 (-0.34%)O413.900 H416.320 L412.290 C412.510 (-0.34%)O412.570 H414.460 L407.080 C413.890 (+0.32%)O412.570 H414.460 L407.080 C413.890 (+0.32%)3.1%O413.910 H429.520 L411.640 C426.550 (+3.05%)O413.910 H429.520 L411.640 C426.550 (+3.05%)O426.770 H426.770 L421.180 C421.190 (-1.31%)O426.770 H426.770 L421.180 C421.190 (-1.31%)O421.180 H424.830 L418.510 C420.790 (-0.09%)O421.180 H424.830 L418.510 C420.790 (-0.09%)O420.940 H424.700 L419.380 C424.420 (+0.83%)O420.940 H424.700 L419.380 C424.420 (+0.83%)O424.260 H426.470 L421.170 C421.340 (-0.69%)O424.260 H426.470 L421.170 C421.340 (-0.69%)O421.260 H424.950 L420.320 C423.000 (+0.41%)O421.260 H424.950 L420.320 C423.000 (+0.41%)O422.950 H425.780 L422.010 C423.980 (+0.24%)O422.950 H425.780 L422.010 C423.980 (+0.24%)O424.140 H425.030 L419.030 C424.220 (+0.02%)O424.140 H425.030 L419.030 C424.220 (+0.02%)O424.320 H428.000 L422.350 C424.440 (+0.03%)O424.320 H428.000 L422.350 C424.440 (+0.03%)O424.320 H429.370 L421.820 C423.690 (-0.15%)O424.320 H429.370 L421.820 C423.690 (-0.15%)O423.880 H428.690 L422.620 C427.460 (+0.84%)O423.880 H428.690 L422.620 C427.460 (+0.84%)O427.510 H430.380 L425.700 C425.820 (-0.40%)O427.510 H430.380 L425.700 C425.820 (-0.40%)O426.000 H428.520 L423.580 C427.160 (+0.27%)O426.000 H428.520 L423.580 C427.160 (+0.27%)O427.270 H428.160 L422.890 C423.100 (-0.98%)O427.270 H428.160 L422.890 C423.100 (-0.98%)O423.100 H425.270 L422.960 C423.490 (+0.09%)O423.100 H425.270 L422.960 C423.490 (+0.09%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=184,929 · μ=7397.2 · σ=7321.2 · CV=0.99BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1109,33218,66427,99637,327μ = 73975,488.56 · 14.7% peak5,488.56 · 14.7% peak6,601.16 · 17.7% peak6,601.16 · 17.7% peak8,006.98 · 21.5% peak8,006.98 · 21.5% peak3,585.26 · 9.6% peak3,585.26 · 9.6% peak6,626.23 · 17.8% peak6,626.23 · 17.8% peak18,212.22 · 48.8% peak18,212.22 · 48.8% peak7,848.83 · 21.0% peak7,848.83 · 21.0% peak4,321.34 · 11.6% peak4,321.34 · 11.6% peak6,070.87 · 16.3% peak6,070.87 · 16.3% peak15,086.76 · 40.4% peak15,086.76 · 40.4% peak37,327.4937,327.49 · 100.0% peak37,327.49 · 100.0% peak9,364.73 · 25.1% peak9,364.73 · 25.1% peak5,737.94 · 15.4% peak5,737.94 · 15.4% peak3,370.83 · 9.0% peak3,370.83 · 9.0% peak4,715.37 · 12.6% peak4,715.37 · 12.6% peak3,957.46 · 10.6% peak3,957.46 · 10.6% peak3,505.29 · 9.4% peak3,505.29 · 9.4% peak9,124.21 · 24.4% peak9,124.21 · 24.4% peak6,990.8 · 18.7% peak6,990.8 · 18.7% peak2,838.11 · 7.6% peak2,838.11 · 7.6% peak6,622.89 · 17.7% peak6,622.89 · 17.7% peak2,994.87 · 8.0% peak2,994.87 · 8.0% peak2,551.14 · 6.8% peak2,551.14 · 6.8% peak2,430.36 · 6.5% peak2,430.36 · 6.5% peak1,549.46 · 4.2% peak1,549.46 · 4.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 184929 · peak 37327 · CV 0.99

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0090 · skew=0.59 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.83 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 1-179.78bpbin -179.78bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -179.78bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1-137.95bpbin -137.95bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -137.95bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-96.11bpbin -96.11bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -96.11bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 3-54.28bpbin -54.28bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -54.28bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 4-12.45bpbin -12.45bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -12.45bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 729.38bpbin 29.38bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 29.38bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 471.22bpbin 71.22bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 71.22bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 1113.05bpbin 113.05bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 113.05bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak154.88bp196.71bp238.54bp 1280.38bpbin 280.38bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 280.38bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 15 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.55 · kurt=2.01 · near 20 / mid 3 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$423.39
Mid price
$423.385
24h change
+1.95%
Mark–mid spread
0.12 bps
Prev-day close
$415.3

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.36)
μ MEAN419.6864$95% CI: [417.3740$, 421.9988$]
σ STD DEV5.8989$σ² = 34.798 · CV = 1.41%
med MEDIAN421.3400$Q₁ 413.8900$ · Q₃ 424.2200$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 19.0200$ · IQR 10.3300$ (1.349σ→7.9577$)
min 408.4400$Q₁ 413.8900$med 421.3400$Q₃ 424.2200$max 427.4600$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.400approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.362platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.28
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.77
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.22
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=9.34
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.097756%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.100
σᵣ STD / h0.979079%σ²ᵣ = 0.959×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.02×
σ ANNUALISED91.64%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.979%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)9.34excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)9.31strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.59right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.80leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.00
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+856.34%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.25%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.246%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.836%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.636%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.04%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.246%VaR₉₉−1.836%ES₉₅−1.636%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK41695.00$
−2.04% drawdown over 4h
40844.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.31× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.47× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.08% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
55.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.608 · within band
Bollinger upper
$432.6939
Bollinger MA
$420.9650
Bollinger lower
$409.2361

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.37 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.372within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.230lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.916strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.651significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.916
H = 0.916STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=3
k=1-0.372k=2-0.230k=3 ★+0.484k=4-0.240k=5-0.3170+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.65)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.37 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.65)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$75.81M
Open interest (USD)
$185.06M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.41x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.01% · worst -2.01% · typical |Δ| 0.69%BULLISH SESSION +2.35%BEST+3.01%21hWORST-2.01%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.69%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.35%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.20% · Σ +1.57%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.97%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.35%+3.28%-1.27%0.79% · 12h0.79% · 12h0.79%12h-1.14% · 13h-1.14% · 13h-1.14%13h0.26% · 14h0.26% · 14h0.26%14h0.83% · 15h0.83% · 15h0.83%15h-2.01% · 16h-2.01% · 16h-2.01%16h▼ WORST0.33% · 17h0.33% · 17h0.33%17h1.04% · 18h1.04% · 18h1.04%18h-0.37% · 19h-0.37% · 19h-0.37%19h0.33% · 20h0.33% · 20h0.33%20h3.01% · 21h3.01% · 21h3.01%21h★ BEST-1.26% · 22h-1.26% · 22h-1.26%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.86% · 00h0.86% · 00h0.86%00h-0.73% · 01h-0.73% · 01h-0.73%01h0.39% · 02h0.39% · 02h0.39%02h0.23% · 03h0.23% · 03h0.23%03h0.06% · 04h0.06% · 04h0.06%04h0.05% · 05h0.05% · 05h0.05%05h-0.18% · 06h-0.18% · 06h-0.18%06h0.89% · 07h0.89% · 07h0.89%07h-0.38% · 08h-0.38% · 08h-0.38%08h0.31% · 09h0.31% · 09h0.31%09h-0.96% · 10h-0.96% · 10h-0.96%10h0.09% · 11h0.09% · 11h0.09%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.57%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH63% up · 38% down
15 up bars · 9 down · best 3.01% · worst -2.01% · typical |Δ| 0.691%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.26%FINAL+2.26%MAX DD-2.07%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.23%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0226 · peak 1.0323 · range [0.9870, 1.0323]1.03230.9870break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0323UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.07% · moderate0%-2.07%▼ TROUGH -2.07%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.07%bar 3-10 · 8 bars · recovered#2 -1.36%bar 12-20 · 9 bars · recovered#3 -1.03%bar 22-25 · 4 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.07%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0226 (2.26%) · max DD -2.07% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=13.80 · σ=19.78PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -5.56 (-0.98σ vs μ)60.8430.420.00-30.42-60.84μ = 13.80-12.81-12.81-9.12-9.120.960.962.042.0422.0322.0333.0433.0428.1228.1226.4626.4621.9621.9622.5722.57-12.12-12.1221.1121.1125.8525.85-6.84-6.8460.8460.8423.7823.7826.3926.39-6.58-6.58-5.56-5.56v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -5.562 · range [-12.81, 60.84] · μ 13.796 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=90.2930 · σ=43.0334 · range [34.6048, 154.5228] · R²=0.534▼ FALLING -45.52%σ EXTREME 47.66%LAST 58.8187154.5228124.543394.563864.584334.6048μ = 90.2930max 154.5228min 34.6048dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 58.82% · range [34.60%, 154.52%] · μ 90.29% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.419 · σ=0.175MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.513 (-0.53σ vs μ)0.7080.3540.000-0.354-0.708μ = -0.419-0.547-0.547-0.298-0.298-0.352-0.352-0.401-0.401-0.035-0.035-0.503-0.503-0.382-0.382-0.364-0.364-0.389-0.389-0.386-0.386-0.248-0.248-0.708-0.708-0.603-0.603-0.218-0.218-0.228-0.228-0.625-0.625-0.704-0.704-0.458-0.458-0.513-0.513v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.513 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
5 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence5 reject·1 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
9.2104
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0100
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
17.3069
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0041
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8288
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3768
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1214
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0339
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7577
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0090
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.1282
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0333
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.352 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.53e-5 · top T=3.00h (42.1%) · top-3 cover 70.2%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈3.0cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.8e-43.6e-42.4e-41.2e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.26e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.26e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.02e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.02e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.04e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.04e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.12e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.12e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.29e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.29e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.03e-4 · 17.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.03e-4 · 17.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.82e-4 · 42.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.82e-4 · 42.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.01e-4 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.01e-4 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.18e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.18e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.16e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.16e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.32e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.32e-5 · 7.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 42.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.144e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -0.30× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-0.30×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×0.4×0.7×1.1×1.4×1.8×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 2.08400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.001
annualized 2.08
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -17% · APY -37% · Sharpe -0.23σ ann 76% · Sortino -0.22 · n 4999
-44%-17%10%37%64%91%-17.4%APR (simple)-36.9%APY (compound)75.7%Ann. vol σ-23.0%Sharpe (ann)-22.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
402.679411.689420.700429.710438.721447.732t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:15 UTC
Snapshot age
702ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:15 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5b149525241d33ef26e8d8c47e1450ba8e78fbbdff8fe7872b36da1e5c6e8abb · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$84.66K
bid $84.14K · ask $521
Depth within 5bp
$144.90K
bid $140.82K · ask $4.07K
Depth within 10bp
$180.76K
bid $166.55K · ask $14.21K
Depth within 50bp
$218.18K
bid $166.55K · ask $51.63K
Mid price
423.435000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.527
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.916
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-zec/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K423.460.68bp423.492FILLED
BUY$10.00K423.675.66bp423.778FILLED
BUY$100.00K423.9011.01bp424.0120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K423.430.12bp423.431FILLED
SELL$10.00K423.430.12bp423.431FILLED
SELL$100.00K423.420.35bp423.356FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-zec/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$427.00–$428.002$9.17K
$426.00–$427.00★1$37.33K
$425.00–$426.001$2.99K
$424.00–$425.003$19.49K
$423.00–$424.005$14.28K
$421.00–$422.002$14.08K
$420.00–$421.001$5.74K
$416.00–$417.002$13.23K
$414.00–$415.001$4.32K
$413.00–$414.003$24.16K
$412.00–$413.002$14.08K
$409.00–$410.001$7.85K
$408.00–$409.001$18.21K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-zec/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.327 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
15 / 9
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$119.07K
real volume
Sell weight
$60.37K
real volume
Net delta
$58.70K
buyers net
Imbalance
32.71%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
32.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-zec/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.99% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h416.72→408.441.987%3
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z1.0h426.55→420.791.350%2
#32026-06-13 13:00:00Z1.0h416.95→412.231.132%2

/api/asset/hl-zec/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
75.75%
σ per bar = 0.000330
Mean return (annualised)
-17.39%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.23
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.71%
peak 430.24 → trough 422.87 over 1315 bars

/api/asset/hl-zec/risk · same metrics, JSON