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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

XPL

XPL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-xpl · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.72%
realized vol (ann.)
175.24%
max drawdown
3.25%
sharpe
37.37
ulcer index
1.31%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
4997.84
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.91%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.07
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2248.07
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.07
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.72%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-xpl/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.089
24h Δ · live
0.72%
24h vol · live
$16.8M
XPL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0890 · σ=0.0017 · range [0.0871, 0.0947] · R²=0.054▲ RISING +0.31%σ NORMAL 1.90%LAST 0.08910.09470.09280.09090.08900.0871μ = 0.0890max 0.0947min 0.0871dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.09
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=192,085,608 · μ=7683424.3 · σ=8681297.5 · CV=1.13BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=6010,574,09421,148,18931,722,28342,296,377μ = 768342442,296,37750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 42296377 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.2s
$mark $
$0.0892
$mid $
$0.0893
◉prev-day close
$0.0886
Δ24h Δ %
+0.723%
$24h vol $
$16.77M
◐open interest $
$21.81M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0890 · σ=0.0017 · range [0.0871, 0.0947] · R²=0.054▲ RISING +0.31%σ NORMAL 1.90%LAST 0.08910.09470.09280.09090.08900.0871μ = 0.0890max 0.0947min 0.0871dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0892 · 24h 0.72% · range $[0.0871, 0.0947]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0857, 0.0980] · σ=0.0017 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=42%BULLISH +2.49%CLOSE 0.0891 vs OPEN 0.0870 (+2.49%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.08910.09800.09490.09180.08880.0857μ close = 0.0890O0.087 H0.090 L0.086 C0.089 (+2.16%)O0.087 H0.090 L0.086 C0.089 (+2.16%)O0.089 H0.089 L0.088 C0.088 (-0.50%)O0.089 H0.089 L0.088 C0.088 (-0.50%)O0.088 H0.089 L0.088 C0.089 (+0.33%)O0.088 H0.089 L0.088 C0.089 (+0.33%)6.7%O0.089 H0.098 L0.088 C0.095 (+6.69%)O0.089 H0.098 L0.088 C0.095 (+6.69%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.091 C0.092 (-2.96%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.091 C0.092 (-2.96%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.088 C0.089 (-2.96%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.088 C0.089 (-2.96%)O0.089 H0.089 L0.088 C0.088 (-1.01%)O0.089 H0.089 L0.088 C0.088 (-1.01%)O0.088 H0.091 L0.088 C0.090 (+1.97%)O0.088 H0.091 L0.088 C0.090 (+1.97%)O0.090 H0.092 L0.090 C0.090 (+0.63%)O0.090 H0.092 L0.090 C0.090 (+0.63%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.088 C0.089 (-1.82%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.088 C0.089 (-1.82%)O0.089 H0.090 L0.088 C0.089 (+0.54%)O0.089 H0.090 L0.088 C0.089 (+0.54%)O0.089 H0.089 L0.087 C0.087 (-2.48%)O0.089 H0.089 L0.087 C0.087 (-2.48%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.086 C0.087 (-0.04%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.086 C0.087 (-0.04%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.087 C0.088 (+0.82%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.087 C0.088 (+0.82%)O0.088 H0.088 L0.087 C0.088 (-0.28%)O0.088 H0.088 L0.087 C0.088 (-0.28%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.087 C0.087 (+0.13%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.087 C0.087 (+0.13%)O0.087 H0.090 L0.087 C0.089 (+2.18%)O0.087 H0.090 L0.087 C0.089 (+2.18%)O0.089 H0.090 L0.088 C0.089 (-0.79%)O0.089 H0.090 L0.088 C0.089 (-0.79%)O0.088 H0.090 L0.088 C0.089 (+0.77%)O0.088 H0.090 L0.088 C0.089 (+0.77%)O0.089 H0.090 L0.087 C0.087 (-2.33%)O0.089 H0.090 L0.087 C0.087 (-2.33%)O0.087 H0.087 L0.086 C0.087 (-0.07%)O0.087 H0.087 L0.086 C0.087 (-0.07%)O0.087 H0.091 L0.086 C0.090 (+3.72%)O0.087 H0.091 L0.086 C0.090 (+3.72%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.089 C0.090 (+0.08%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.089 C0.090 (+0.08%)O0.090 H0.092 L0.090 C0.090 (-0.67%)O0.090 H0.092 L0.090 C0.090 (-0.67%)O0.090 H0.090 L0.089 C0.089 (-0.64%)O0.090 H0.090 L0.089 C0.089 (-0.64%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=192,085,608 · μ=7683424.3 · σ=8681297.5 · CV=1.13BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=6010,574,09421,148,18931,722,28342,296,377μ = 76834249,580,466 · 22.7% peak9,580,466 · 22.7% peak4,700,295 · 11.1% peak4,700,295 · 11.1% peak5,889,003 · 13.9% peak5,889,003 · 13.9% peak42,296,37742,296,377 · 100.0% peak42,296,377 · 100.0% peak23,400,664 · 55.3% peak23,400,664 · 55.3% peak14,995,705 · 35.5% peak14,995,705 · 35.5% peak4,192,261 · 9.9% peak4,192,261 · 9.9% peak5,994,418 · 14.2% peak5,994,418 · 14.2% peak6,806,887 · 16.1% peak6,806,887 · 16.1% peak8,353,427 · 19.7% peak8,353,427 · 19.7% peak8,138,766 · 19.2% peak8,138,766 · 19.2% peak6,297,186 · 14.9% peak6,297,186 · 14.9% peak5,958,082 · 14.1% peak5,958,082 · 14.1% peak3,360,983 · 7.9% peak3,360,983 · 7.9% peak1,699,514 · 4.0% peak1,699,514 · 4.0% peak1,284,577 · 3.0% peak1,284,577 · 3.0% peak4,441,565 · 10.5% peak4,441,565 · 10.5% peak3,217,944 · 7.6% peak3,217,944 · 7.6% peak4,867,781 · 11.5% peak4,867,781 · 11.5% peak2,886,967 · 6.8% peak2,886,967 · 6.8% peak2,206,842 · 5.2% peak2,206,842 · 5.2% peak12,280,107 · 29.0% peak12,280,107 · 29.0% peak3,578,093 · 8.5% peak3,578,093 · 8.5% peak3,599,877 · 8.5% peak3,599,877 · 8.5% peak2,057,821 · 4.9% peak2,057,821 · 4.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 192085608 · peak 42296377 · CV 1.13

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0200 · skew=1.15 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.76 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 4-260.28bpbin -260.28bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -260.28bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 1-181.05bpbin -181.05bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -181.05bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 3-101.81bpbin -101.81bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -101.81bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 7-22.58bpbin -22.58bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -22.58bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 556.66bpbin 56.66bp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin 56.66bp · n=5 · 71.4% peak135.89bp 2215.13bpbin 215.13bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 215.13bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak294.36bp 1373.60bpbin 373.60bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 373.60bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak452.83bp532.07bp 1611.31bpbin 611.31bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 611.31bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.22 · kurt=2.31 · near 19 / mid 4 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0892
Mid price
$0.0893
24h change
+0.72%
Mark–mid spread
2.47 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0886

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.63)
μ MEAN0.0890$95% CI: [0.0884$, 0.0897$]
σ STD DEV0.0017$σ² = 0.028×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.90%
med MEDIAN0.0889$Q₁ 0.0878$ · Q₃ 0.0896$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0076$ · IQR 0.0018$ (1.349σ→0.0023$)
min 0.0871$Q₁ 0.0878$med 0.0889$Q₃ 0.0896$max 0.0947$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.421right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.633leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.27
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.50
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDMARGINAL EDGE · SR=0.59
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.013061%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.006
σᵣ STD / h2.081873%σ²ᵣ = 4.334×10⁻⁴ · CV = 159.39×
σ ANNUALISED194.85%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 2.082%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)0.59marginal edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)0.77downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)14.27exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.30right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.18leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.32
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 14.27
EXPECTED EDGE+114.42%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.87%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.871%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.990%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.979%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN8.02%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.871%VaR₉₉−2.990%ES₉₅−2.979%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK9.47$
−8.02% drawdown over 9h
8.71$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +8.72% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
50.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.604 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0910
Bollinger MA
$0.0887
Bollinger lower
$0.0864

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.120within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.370lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.026strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.151fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.026
H = 1.026STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.120k=2-0.370k=3-0.141k=4+0.085k=5+0.1760+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.15)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.15)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$16.77M
Open interest (USD)
$21.81M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.77x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
0.301× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
0.151× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.075×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 6.51% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 1.41%MILD BULLISH +0.31%BEST+6.51%14hWORST-3.00%16hTYPICAL |Δ|1.41%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.31%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.04%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.71% · Σ +5.67%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.67% · Σ -5.40%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.31%+6.31%-2.05%-0.56% · 12h-0.56% · 12h-0.56%12h0.36% · 13h0.36% · 13h0.36%13h6.51% · 14h6.51% · 14h6.51%14h★ BEST-2.96% · 15h-2.96% · 15h-2.96%15h-3.00% · 16h-3.00% · 16h-3.00%16h▼ WORST-1.19% · 17h-1.19% · 17h-1.19%17h1.92% · 18h1.92% · 18h1.92%18h0.65% · 19h0.65% · 19h0.65%19h-1.81% · 20h-1.81% · 20h-1.81%20h0.51% · 21h0.51% · 21h0.51%21h-2.37% · 22h-2.37% · 22h-2.37%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.85% · 00h0.85% · 00h0.85%00h-0.34% · 01h-0.34% · 01h-0.34%01h-0.02% · 02h-0.02% · 02h-0.02%02h2.04% · 03h2.04% · 03h2.04%03h-0.76% · 04h-0.76% · 04h-0.76%04h0.60% · 05h0.60% · 05h0.60%05h-2.23% · 06h-2.23% · 06h-2.23%06h-0.10% · 07h-0.10% · 07h-0.10%07h3.55% · 08h3.55% · 08h3.55%08h0.11% · 09h0.11% · 09h0.11%09h-0.82% · 10h-0.82% · 10h-0.82%10h-0.51% · 11h-0.51% · 11h-0.51%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+5.67%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 6.51% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 1.411%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.18%)FINAL-0.18%MAX DD-8.18%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+6.30%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9982 · peak 1.0630 · range [0.9760, 1.0630]1.06300.9760break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0630UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -8.18% · significant0%-8.18%▼ TROUGH -8.18%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -8.18%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.56%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -8.18%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9982 (-0.18%) · max DD -8.18% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-4.76 · σ=22.29MIXED EDGELAST -0.07 (+0.21σ vs μ)50.1925.100.00-25.10-50.19μ = -4.76-3.72-3.727.097.098.338.33-50.19-50.19-25.03-25.03-21.57-21.57-11.69-11.69-25.86-25.86-39.67-39.67-20.36-20.360.640.6425.6825.6836.9736.97-7.79-7.79-5.23-5.2323.4923.499.509.508.988.98-0.07-0.07v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.073 · range [-50.19, 36.97] · μ -4.764 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=175.9109 · σ=76.7574 · range [93.5964, 337.5102] · R²=0.289▼ FALLING -45.28%σ EXTREME 43.63%LAST 180.1369337.5102276.5317215.5533154.574893.5964μ = 175.9109max 337.5102min 93.5964dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 180.14% · range [93.60%, 337.51%] · μ 175.91% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.188 · σ=0.228MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.033 (+0.97σ vs μ)0.5700.2850.000-0.285-0.570μ = -0.188-0.074-0.074-0.103-0.103-0.097-0.0970.3740.374-0.000-0.000-0.290-0.290-0.188-0.188-0.499-0.499-0.383-0.383-0.293-0.293-0.015-0.015-0.536-0.536-0.570-0.570-0.314-0.314-0.318-0.318-0.117-0.117-0.105-0.105-0.078-0.0780.0330.033v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.033 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
16.8428
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0002
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.0958
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2964
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.0614
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0306
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0031
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3158
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3263
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1828
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2369
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.640 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.16e-4 · top T=4.80h (27.3%) · top-3 cover 58.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.4e-31.0e-36.8e-43.4e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.99e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.99e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.64e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.64e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.03e-5 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.03e-5 · 0.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.02e-4 · 18.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.02e-4 · 18.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.36e-3 · 27.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.36e-3 · 27.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.71e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.71e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.35e-4 · 12.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.35e-4 · 12.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.63e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.63e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.73e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.73e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.80e-4 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.80e-4 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.04e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.04e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.00e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.00e-5 · 0.4% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 27.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.994e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.002%/barparametric μ/σ² 9.56× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
9.56×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 2.39× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 2.98400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 2.39× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.001
annualized 2.98
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.16%
VaR 95%5%
0.20%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.31%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.5%
0.88×0.93×0.98×1.03×1.08×1.13×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 14.53σ ann 152% · Sortino 15.98 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%384%767%1151%1534%1918%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)152.0%Ann. vol σ1452.7%Sharpe (ann)1598.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0820.0850.0880.0900.0930.096t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:26 UTC
Snapshot age
2.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
84fcf3c6fec09d285e63ce9e33350572c44d18b096a492fa852870f5d4159bd5 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,504HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.73

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$7.98K
bid $4.04K · ask $3.94K
Depth within 10bp
$38.36K
bid $20.40K · ask $17.96K
Depth within 50bp
$65.73K
bid $29.74K · ask $35.99K
Mid price
0.089274
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.094
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.215
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xpl/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0893013.08bp0.0893011FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0893265.91bp0.0893528FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.0893579.40bp0.08939820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0892453.14bp0.0892452FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0892225.73bp0.0892068FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0891998.37bp0.08917120PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-xpl/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$192.09M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xpl/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.070 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$97.65M
real volume
Sell weight
$84.85M
real volume
Net delta
$12.80M
buyers net
Imbalance
7.02%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
7.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-xpl/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 6.90% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 15:00:00Z3.0h0.094654→0.0881236.900%4
#22026-06-13 20:00:00Z4.0h0.090413→0.0870643.704%5
#32026-06-14 06:00:00Z1.0h0.089299→0.0870982.465%2

/api/asset/hl-xpl/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
152.02%
σ per bar = 0.000663
Mean return (annualised)
2208.40%
μ per bar = 0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
14.53
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.81%
peak 0.09 → trough 0.09 over 913 bars

/api/asset/hl-xpl/risk · same metrics, JSON