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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

WLFI

WLFI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-wlfi · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.20%
realized vol (ann.)
52.66%
max drawdown
1.81%
sharpe
-46.11
ulcer index
0.76%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.61%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3174.53
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.63%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1487.25
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.20%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
1.71%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.20%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-wlfi/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.058
24h Δ · live
-1.20%
24h vol · live
$1.0M
WLFI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0588 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0579, 0.0593] · R²=0.229▼ FALLING -1.43%σ LOW 0.55%LAST 0.05840.05930.05890.05860.05820.0579μ = 0.0588max 0.0593min 0.0579dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.06
Funding direction · live
Long fee 39.8%Short fee 60.2%SHORT FEE60.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.970 / 1.00 bits (97%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
39.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
60.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000195% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=18,331,195 · μ=733247.8 · σ=558798.1 · CV=0.76STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130589,9271,179,8531,769,7802,359,706μ = 7332482,359,70650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2359706 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.5s
$mark $
$0.0584
$mid $
$0.0584
◉prev-day close
$0.0591
Δ24h Δ %
-1.203%
$24h vol $
$1.00M
◐open interest $
$11.03M
%funding (1h)
0.000195%
%funding (yr)
+1.71%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0588 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0579, 0.0593] · R²=0.229▼ FALLING -1.43%σ LOW 0.55%LAST 0.05840.05930.05890.05860.05820.0579μ = 0.0588max 0.0593min 0.0579dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0584 · 24h -1.20% · range $[0.0579, 0.0593]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.0578, 0.0595] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=47%BEARISH -0.55%CLOSE 0.0584 vs OPEN 0.0587 (-0.55%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.05840.05950.05910.05870.05830.0578μ close = 0.0588O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.89%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.89%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.03%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.03%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.19%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.19%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.02%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.02%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.22%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.22%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.26%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.26%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.31%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.31%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.10%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.10%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.059 (+0.24%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.059 (+0.24%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.32%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.32%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.23%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.23%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.14%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.14%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.13%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.13%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.37%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.37%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.39%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.39%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.20%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.20%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.33%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.33%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.74%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.74%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.67%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.67%)1.5%O0.058 H0.059 L0.058 C0.059 (+1.46%)O0.058 H0.059 L0.058 C0.059 (+1.46%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.55%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.55%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.35%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.35%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.52%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.52%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.88%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.88%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.07%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.07%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=18,331,195 · μ=733247.8 · σ=558798.1 · CV=0.76STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130589,9271,179,8531,769,7802,359,706μ = 7332482,359,7062,359,706 · 100.0% peak2,359,706 · 100.0% peak435,623 · 18.5% peak435,623 · 18.5% peak718,497 · 30.4% peak718,497 · 30.4% peak1,253,557 · 53.1% peak1,253,557 · 53.1% peak830,802 · 35.2% peak830,802 · 35.2% peak706,247 · 29.9% peak706,247 · 29.9% peak632,390 · 26.8% peak632,390 · 26.8% peak193,270 · 8.2% peak193,270 · 8.2% peak714,464 · 30.3% peak714,464 · 30.3% peak484,032 · 20.5% peak484,032 · 20.5% peak304,977 · 12.9% peak304,977 · 12.9% peak112,243 · 4.8% peak112,243 · 4.8% peak1,170,212 · 49.6% peak1,170,212 · 49.6% peak1,121,784 · 47.5% peak1,121,784 · 47.5% peak363,628 · 15.4% peak363,628 · 15.4% peak217,322 · 9.2% peak217,322 · 9.2% peak547,126 · 23.2% peak547,126 · 23.2% peak307,675 · 13.0% peak307,675 · 13.0% peak399,602 · 16.9% peak399,602 · 16.9% peak2,067,650 · 87.6% peak2,067,650 · 87.6% peak1,279,279 · 54.2% peak1,279,279 · 54.2% peak268,556 · 11.4% peak268,556 · 11.4% peak686,467 · 29.1% peak686,467 · 29.1% peak831,885 · 35.3% peak831,885 · 35.3% peak324,201 · 13.7% peak324,201 · 13.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 18331195 · peak 2359706 · CV 0.76

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0007 · σ=0.0047 · skew=0.80 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.32 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 3-78.94bpbin -78.94bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -78.94bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 1-59.63bpbin -59.63bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -59.63bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-40.33bpbin -40.33bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -40.33bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 7-21.03bpbin -21.03bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -21.03bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 3-1.72bpbin -1.72bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -1.72bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 317.58bpbin 17.58bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 17.58bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 336.88bpbin 36.88bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 36.88bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 156.19bpbin 56.19bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 56.19bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak75.49bp94.79bp114.09bp 1133.40bpbin 133.40bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 133.40bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 8 · negative 16
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.95 · kurt=1.92 · near 21 / mid 2 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00MODERATE DEPARTURE · SOME OUTLIERSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0584
Mid price
$0.0584
24h change
-1.20%
Mark–mid spread
1.03 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0591

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.00)
μ MEAN0.0588$95% CI: [0.0587$, 0.0590$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.55%
med MEDIAN0.0589$Q₁ 0.0587$ · Q₃ 0.0590$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0014$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0004$)
min 0.0579$Q₁ 0.0587$med 0.0589$Q₃ 0.0590$max 0.0593$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.001left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.835mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.17
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.41
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.27
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-11.53
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.059990%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.123
σᵣ STD / h0.487125%σ²ᵣ = 0.237×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.12×
σ ANNUALISED45.59%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.487%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-11.53negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-13.71downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.01right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.69leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.19
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-525.51%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.73%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.733%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.852%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.811%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.31%18h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.733%VaR₉₉−0.852%ES₉₅−0.811%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 18h duration
PEAK5.93$
−2.31% drawdown over 18h
5.79$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.36% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
41.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.223 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0594
Bollinger MA
$0.0588
Bollinger lower
$0.0581

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.212within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.284lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.804strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.613significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.804
H = 0.804STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=3
k=1+0.212k=2-0.284k=3 ★-0.565k=4-0.245k=5+0.3520+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.61)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.82very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.61)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.00M
Open interest (USD)
$11.03M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.09x
1h funding
0.000195%
Funding (annualised)
+1.71%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.43% · worst -0.89% · typical |Δ| 0.36%BEARISH SESSION -1.44%BEST+1.43%06hWORST-0.89%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.36%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.44%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.26%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.46%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.25%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.44%+0.03%-2.34%-0.02% · 12h-0.02% · 12h-0.02%12h-0.20% · 13h-0.20% · 13h-0.20%13h-0.04% · 14h-0.04% · 14h-0.04%14h-0.13% · 15h-0.13% · 15h-0.13%15h-0.23% · 16h-0.23% · 16h-0.23%16h-0.27% · 17h-0.27% · 17h-0.27%17h-0.16% · 18h-0.16% · 18h-0.16%18h0.20% · 19h0.20% · 19h0.20%19h0.32% · 20h0.32% · 20h0.32%20h0.24% · 21h0.24% · 21h0.24%21h-0.17% · 22h-0.17% · 22h-0.17%22h-0.17% · 23h-0.17% · 23h-0.17%23h-0.37% · 00h-0.37% · 00h-0.37%00h0.39% · 01h0.39% · 01h0.39%01h0.14% · 02h0.14% · 02h0.14%02h-0.40% · 03h-0.40% · 03h-0.40%03h-0.74% · 04h-0.74% · 04h-0.74%04h-0.71% · 05h-0.71% · 05h-0.71%05h1.43% · 06h1.43% · 06h1.43%06h★ BEST0.53% · 07h0.53% · 07h0.53%07h0.40% · 08h0.40% · 08h0.40%08h-0.52% · 09h-0.52% · 09h-0.52%09h-0.89% · 10h-0.89% · 10h-0.89%10h▼ WORST-0.06% · 11h-0.06% · 11h-0.06%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.26%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 7BREADTH33% up · 67% down
8 up bars · 16 down · best 1.43% · worst -0.89% · typical |Δ| 0.364%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.46%)FINAL-1.46%MAX DD-2.32%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9854 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9768, 1.0000]1.00000.9768break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.32% · moderate0%-2.32%▼ TROUGH -2.32%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.32%bar 2-21 · 20 bars · recovered#2 -1.46%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.32%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9854 (-1.46%) · max DD -2.32% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=-23.67 · σ=57.02MIXED EDGELAST 16.91 (+0.71σ vs μ)198.2299.110.00-99.11-198.22μ = -23.67-137.34-137.34-198.22-198.22-58.90-58.90-17.83-17.835.675.679.889.8817.0917.092.752.7511.9311.933.363.36-29.72-29.72-44.36-44.36-57.73-57.731.991.994.494.499.229.226.946.944.134.1316.9116.91v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 16.915 · range [-198.22, 17.09] · μ -23.670 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=42.0369 · σ=27.6664 · range [7.6362, 84.1902] · R²=0.857▲ RISING +708.23%σ EXTREME 65.81%LAST 77.340984.190265.051745.913226.77477.6362μ = 42.0369max 84.1902min 7.6362dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.86μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 77.34% · range [7.64%, 84.19%] · μ 42.04% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=0.182 · σ=0.214MOMENTUM / PERSISTENCELAST 0.386 (+0.96σ vs μ)0.6080.3040.000-0.304-0.608μ = 0.182-0.020-0.0200.1240.1240.1040.1040.4850.4850.6080.6080.2920.2920.2570.2570.4860.4860.0090.009-0.077-0.077-0.132-0.1320.1620.1620.4080.408-0.050-0.0500.1450.1450.1960.1960.0390.0390.0300.0300.3860.386v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.386 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
11.3319
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0035
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
18.9462
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0021
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.3398
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1677
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-2.2040
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0275
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3562
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0960
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.4889
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6249
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.149 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.28e-5 · top T=6.00h (35.3%) · top-3 cover 67.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)9.7e-57.3e-54.8e-52.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.68e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.68e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.17e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.17e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.41e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.41e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.67e-5 · 35.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.67e-5 · 35.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.31e-5 · 23.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.31e-5 · 23.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.21e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.21e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.18e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.18e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.39e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.39e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.66e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.66e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.11e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.11e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.19e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.19e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.63e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.63e-6 · 1.0% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 35.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.742e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-23.13×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -10.32400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.005
annualized -10.32
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -741% · APY -100% · Sharpe -13.09σ ann 57% · Sortino -12.07 · n 4999
-1571%-1243%-915%-588%-260%68%-741.1%APR (simple)-99.9%APY (compound)56.6%Ann. vol σ-1309.2%Sharpe (ann)-1207.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0560.0570.0580.0590.0600.062t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:15 UTC
Snapshot age
5.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:21 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
8f8324464d1f7424056db73ddcab3e8860eeef87ffff9719eafcc0830da76219 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$11.32K
bid $4.48K · ask $6.83K
Depth within 10bp
$39.72K
bid $24.67K · ask $15.05K
Depth within 50bp
$63.46K
bid $39.13K · ask $24.32K
Mid price
0.058402
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.234
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.307
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-wlfi/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0584101.44bp0.0584132FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0584284.48bp0.05844711FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.0584477.75bp0.05847120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0583892.28bp0.0583854FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0583764.53bp0.0583698FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0583548.24bp0.05833320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.947e-6
0.00019% / hr
Annualised APR
1.707%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
214.0d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
214.0d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-1.707%214.0d5.86y
SHORTRECEIVE1.707%214.0d5.86y

/api/asset/hl-wlfi/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$18.33M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-wlfi/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.286 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 16
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$5.70M
real volume
Sell weight
$10.27M
real volume
Net delta
$4.57M
sellers net
Imbalance
-28.62%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
28.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-wlfi/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.84% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z1.0h0.058970→0.0578861.838%2
#22026-06-14 09:00:00Z2.0h0.059269→0.0584071.454%3
#32026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h0.059098→0.0586290.794%2

/api/asset/hl-wlfi/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
56.61%
σ per bar = 0.000247
Mean return (annualised)
-741.10%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-13.09
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.81%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.06 over 1366 bars

/api/asset/hl-wlfi/risk · same metrics, JSON