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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

WLD

WLD-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-wld · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.87%
realized vol (ann.)
125.96%
max drawdown
3.61%
sharpe
-1.80
ulcer index
1.81%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.54%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-124.85
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.43%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-65.98
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.87%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-wld/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.499
24h Δ · live
0.87%
24h vol · live
$33.6M
WLD · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.5041 · σ=0.0070 · range [0.4909, 0.5212] · R²=0.006▲ RISING +1.54%σ NORMAL 1.40%LAST 0.49870.52120.51360.50600.49840.4909μ = 0.5041max 0.5212min 0.4909dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.50
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=67,778,483 · μ=2711139.3 · σ=2008962.3 · CV=0.74FADING -51% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=801,803,9993,607,9995,411,9987,215,997μ = 27111397,215,99750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 7215997 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.8s
$mark $
$0.4985
$mid $
$0.4987
◉prev-day close
$0.4942
Δ24h Δ %
+0.872%
$24h vol $
$33.59M
◐open interest $
$48.66M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.5041 · σ=0.0070 · range [0.4909, 0.5212] · R²=0.006▲ RISING +1.54%σ NORMAL 1.40%LAST 0.49870.52120.51360.50600.49840.4909μ = 0.5041max 0.5212min 0.4909dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.4985 · 24h 0.87% · range $[0.4909, 0.5212]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.4876, 0.5351] · σ=0.0070 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=47%BULLISH +1.62%CLOSE 0.4987 vs OPEN 0.4908 (+1.62%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.49870.53510.52320.51140.49950.4876μ close = 0.5041O0.491 H0.495 L0.488 C0.491 (+0.08%)O0.491 H0.495 L0.488 C0.491 (+0.08%)O0.492 H0.504 L0.491 C0.501 (+1.80%)O0.492 H0.504 L0.491 C0.501 (+1.80%)O0.500 H0.511 L0.500 C0.506 (+1.08%)O0.500 H0.511 L0.500 C0.506 (+1.08%)O0.505 H0.527 L0.505 C0.521 (+3.14%)O0.505 H0.527 L0.505 C0.521 (+3.14%)O0.521 H0.535 L0.516 C0.517 (-0.77%)O0.521 H0.535 L0.516 C0.517 (-0.77%)O0.517 H0.518 L0.496 C0.505 (-2.23%)O0.517 H0.518 L0.496 C0.505 (-2.23%)O0.505 H0.506 L0.499 C0.503 (-0.52%)O0.505 H0.506 L0.499 C0.503 (-0.52%)O0.502 H0.507 L0.492 C0.497 (-1.02%)O0.502 H0.507 L0.492 C0.497 (-1.02%)O0.497 H0.505 L0.496 C0.500 (+0.70%)O0.497 H0.505 L0.496 C0.500 (+0.70%)O0.500 H0.503 L0.495 C0.502 (+0.38%)O0.500 H0.503 L0.495 C0.502 (+0.38%)O0.502 H0.513 L0.498 C0.507 (+0.98%)O0.502 H0.513 L0.498 C0.507 (+0.98%)O0.507 H0.510 L0.503 C0.504 (-0.68%)O0.507 H0.510 L0.503 C0.504 (-0.68%)O0.504 H0.507 L0.500 C0.502 (-0.44%)O0.504 H0.507 L0.500 C0.502 (-0.44%)O0.502 H0.507 L0.501 C0.504 (+0.37%)O0.502 H0.507 L0.501 C0.504 (+0.37%)O0.504 H0.512 L0.502 C0.508 (+0.80%)O0.504 H0.512 L0.502 C0.508 (+0.80%)O0.508 H0.511 L0.505 C0.508 (-0.03%)O0.508 H0.511 L0.505 C0.508 (-0.03%)O0.507 H0.508 L0.503 C0.505 (-0.45%)O0.507 H0.508 L0.503 C0.505 (-0.45%)O0.505 H0.506 L0.490 C0.491 (-2.79%)O0.505 H0.506 L0.490 C0.491 (-2.79%)3.4%O0.491 H0.509 L0.491 C0.507 (+3.36%)O0.491 H0.509 L0.491 C0.507 (+3.36%)O0.507 H0.524 L0.507 C0.515 (+1.55%)O0.507 H0.524 L0.507 C0.515 (+1.55%)O0.515 H0.516 L0.502 C0.504 (-2.10%)O0.515 H0.516 L0.502 C0.504 (-2.10%)O0.504 H0.513 L0.499 C0.508 (+0.88%)O0.504 H0.513 L0.499 C0.508 (+0.88%)O0.508 H0.508 L0.502 C0.505 (-0.72%)O0.508 H0.508 L0.502 C0.505 (-0.72%)O0.505 H0.507 L0.494 C0.495 (-1.98%)O0.505 H0.507 L0.494 C0.495 (-1.98%)O0.495 H0.499 L0.494 C0.499 (+0.80%)O0.495 H0.499 L0.494 C0.499 (+0.80%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=67,778,483 · μ=2711139.3 · σ=2008962.3 · CV=0.74FADING -51% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=801,803,9993,607,9995,411,9987,215,997μ = 27111393,149,952.6 · 43.7% peak3,149,952.6 · 43.7% peak4,148,267.5 · 57.5% peak4,148,267.5 · 57.5% peak3,268,866.2 · 45.3% peak3,268,866.2 · 45.3% peak7,215,9977,215,997 · 100.0% peak7,215,997 · 100.0% peak4,700,512.5 · 65.1% peak4,700,512.5 · 65.1% peak6,885,948.6 · 95.4% peak6,885,948.6 · 95.4% peak2,589,185.2 · 35.9% peak2,589,185.2 · 35.9% peak7,128,200.6 · 98.8% peak7,128,200.6 · 98.8% peak2,259,606.3 · 31.3% peak2,259,606.3 · 31.3% peak1,909,375.8 · 26.5% peak1,909,375.8 · 26.5% peak1,397,942 · 19.4% peak1,397,942 · 19.4% peak738,468.4 · 10.2% peak738,468.4 · 10.2% peak588,249.8 · 8.2% peak588,249.8 · 8.2% peak780,903.2 · 10.8% peak780,903.2 · 10.8% peak2,142,808.2 · 29.7% peak2,142,808.2 · 29.7% peak791,454.7 · 11.0% peak791,454.7 · 11.0% peak959,554.8 · 13.3% peak959,554.8 · 13.3% peak2,665,346 · 36.9% peak2,665,346 · 36.9% peak2,343,123.9 · 32.5% peak2,343,123.9 · 32.5% peak4,436,373.1 · 61.5% peak4,436,373.1 · 61.5% peak2,378,591.3 · 33.0% peak2,378,591.3 · 33.0% peak1,542,684.1 · 21.4% peak1,542,684.1 · 21.4% peak1,450,973.7 · 20.1% peak1,450,973.7 · 20.1% peak1,529,340.6 · 21.2% peak1,529,340.6 · 21.2% peak776,756.9 · 10.8% peak776,756.9 · 10.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 67778483 · peak 7215997 · CV 0.74

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0150 · skew=0.12 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.54 (mesokurtic)54310 1-262.66bpbin -262.66bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -262.66bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-211.25bpbin -211.25bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -211.25bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak-159.85bp 2-108.45bpbin -108.45bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -108.45bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-57.05bpbin -57.05bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -57.05bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 1-5.65bpbin -5.65bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -5.65bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 345.75bpbin 45.75bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 45.75bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 597.15bpbin 97.15bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 97.15bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 1148.55bpbin 148.55bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 148.55bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1199.95bpbin 199.95bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 199.95bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak251.36bp 2302.76bpbin 302.76bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 302.76bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.12 · kurt=-0.32 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.4985
Mid price
$0.4987
24h change
+0.87%
Mark–mid spread
2.61 bps
Prev-day close
$0.4942

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.5041$95% CI: [0.5014$, 0.5069$]
σ STD DEV0.0070$σ² = 0.496×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.40%
med MEDIAN0.5043$Q₁ 0.5005$ · Q₃ 0.5073$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0303$ · IQR 0.0067$ (1.349σ→0.0095$)
min 0.4909$Q₁ 0.5005$med 0.5043$Q₃ 0.5073$max 0.5212$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.286approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.182mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.41
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.30
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=3.82
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.063560%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.041
σᵣ STD / h1.557855%σ²ᵣ = 2.427×10⁻⁴ · CV = 24.51×
σ ANNUALISED145.81%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.558%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)3.82excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)4.08strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)95.71exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.13approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.10mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.07
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 95.71
EXPECTED EDGE+556.79%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.23%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.230%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.738%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.566%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.82%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.230%VaR₉₉−2.738%ES₉₅−2.566%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK52.12$
−5.82% drawdown over 14h
49.09$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.18% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
50.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.282 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.5141
Bollinger MA
$0.5034
Bollinger lower
$0.4927

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.049within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.233lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.754strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.375fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.754
H = 0.754STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.049k=2-0.233k=3+0.018k=4-0.270k=5-0.0180+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.37)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.56high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.37)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$33.59M
Open interest (USD)
$48.66M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.69x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
2.619× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.309× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.655×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.28% · worst -2.88% · typical |Δ| 1.24%MILD BULLISH +1.53%BEST+3.28%05hWORST-2.88%04hTYPICAL |Δ|1.24%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.53%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.54%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.50% · Σ +3.96%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.37% · Σ -2.98%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.53%+5.93%-0.07%1.89% · 12h1.89% · 12h1.89%12h1.06% · 13h1.06% · 13h1.06%13h2.98% · 14h2.98% · 14h2.98%14h-0.85% · 15h-0.85% · 15h-0.85%15h-2.25% · 16h-2.25% · 16h-2.25%16h-0.54% · 17h-0.54% · 17h-0.54%17h-1.10% · 18h-1.10% · 18h-1.10%18h0.65% · 19h0.65% · 19h0.65%19h0.36% · 20h0.36% · 20h0.36%20h1.03% · 21h1.03% · 21h1.03%21h-0.69% · 22h-0.69% · 22h-0.69%22h-0.44% · 23h-0.44% · 23h-0.44%23h0.41% · 00h0.41% · 00h0.41%00h0.82% · 01h0.82% · 01h0.82%01h-0.06% · 02h-0.06% · 02h-0.06%02h-0.45% · 03h-0.45% · 03h-0.45%03h-2.88% · 04h-2.88% · 04h-2.88%04h▼ WORST3.28% · 05h3.28% · 05h3.28%05h★ BEST1.55% · 06h1.55% · 06h1.55%06h-2.13% · 07h-2.13% · 07h-2.13%07h0.78% · 08h0.78% · 08h0.78%08h-0.70% · 09h-0.70% · 09h-0.70%09h-1.99% · 10h-1.99% · 10h-1.99%10h0.80% · 11h0.80% · 11h0.80%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+3.96%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 3.28% · worst -2.88% · typical |Δ| 1.237%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.25%FINAL+1.25%MAX DD-5.91%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+6.04%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0125 · peak 1.0604 · range [0.9977, 1.0604]1.06040.9977break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0604UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.91% · significant0%-5.91%▼ TROUGH -5.91%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -5.91%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.91%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0125 (1.25%) · max DD -5.91% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-1.42 · σ=21.94MIXED EDGELAST -16.96 (-0.71σ vs μ)55.5727.790.00-27.79-55.57μ = -1.4218.4418.44-5.90-5.90-9.57-9.57-55.57-55.57-23.42-23.42-5.37-5.37-3.57-3.5731.4131.4134.1434.1424.4424.44-10.93-10.93-31.27-31.278.758.7516.9616.96-4.70-4.700.970.97-0.66-0.665.805.80-16.96-16.96v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -16.959 · range [-55.57, 34.14] · μ -1.422 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=138.7569 · σ=60.0937 · range [54.3681, 217.9265] · R²=0.146▼ FALLING -19.59%σ EXTREME 43.31%LAST 145.8323217.9265177.0369136.147395.257754.3681μ = 138.7569max 217.9265min 54.3681dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.15μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 145.83% · range [54.37%, 217.93%] · μ 138.76% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.055 · σ=0.243CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.569 (-2.12σ vs μ)0.5690.2850.000-0.285-0.569μ = -0.0550.2790.2790.2460.246-0.027-0.0270.1500.1500.1830.183-0.054-0.054-0.139-0.139-0.046-0.046-0.012-0.012-0.148-0.1480.2860.2860.1860.186-0.371-0.371-0.149-0.149-0.237-0.237-0.299-0.299-0.362-0.3620.0460.046-0.569-0.569v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.569 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0753
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9631
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.9145
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5639
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.6039
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0060
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.8348
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4038
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0600
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7920
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4283
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.759 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.35e-4 · top T=3.00h (24.1%) · top-3 cover 59.4%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)6.8e-45.1e-43.4e-41.7e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.39e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.39e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.85e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.85e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.08e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.08e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.87e-4 · 17.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.87e-4 · 17.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.97e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.97e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.51e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.51e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.13e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.13e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.80e-4 · 24.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.80e-4 · 24.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.43e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.43e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.45e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.45e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.17e-4 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.17e-4 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.25e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.25e-5 · 1.9% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=8.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 24.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.817e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-10.67×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -12.07400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.005
annualized -12.07
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -14.14σ ann 133% · Sortino -13.00 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1696%-1325%-954%-583%-212%159%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)132.5%Ann. vol σ-1413.7%Sharpe (ann)-1299.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.4710.4860.5000.5150.5300.545t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:51 UTC
Snapshot age
5.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:58 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
dcd0163dbe75910d6ab0d5b264f7674159da19378659e46b4a2031334f06c8c9 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,519HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.7HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$10.49K
bid $5.03K · ask $5.46K
Depth within 10bp
$56.23K
bid $27.99K · ask $28.24K
Depth within 50bp
$77.17K
bid $44.75K · ask $32.42K
Mid price
0.498860
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.161
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.010
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-wld/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.4989702.21bp0.4989902FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.4990744.29bp0.4991608FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.4992066.93bp0.49942020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.4987452.30bp0.4987402FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.4986105.02bp0.4985006FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.4984049.14bp0.49810020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-wld/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$67.78M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-wld/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · -0.003 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$32.22M
real volume
Sell weight
$32.41M
real volume
Net delta
$183.12K
sellers net
Imbalance
-0.28%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
0.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-wld/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 4.63% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 15:00:00Z4.0h0.521170→0.4970404.630%5
#22026-06-14 07:00:00Z4.0h0.515150→0.4947503.960%5
#32026-06-14 03:00:00Z1.0h0.507800→0.4908503.338%2

/api/asset/hl-wld/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
132.55%
σ per bar = 0.000578
Mean return (annualised)
-1873.84%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-14.14
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.52%
peak 0.52 → trough 0.49 over 2815 bars

/api/asset/hl-wld/risk · same metrics, JSON