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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

UNI

UNI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-uni · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.93%
realized vol (ann.)
32.62%
max drawdown
1.05%
sharpe
-15.00
ulcer index
0.53%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.46%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-916.89
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.97%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-503.90
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.93%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-uni/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$2.523
24h Δ · live
-0.93%
24h vol · live
$1.4M
UNI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=2.5449 · σ=0.0133 · range [2.5225, 2.5726] · R²=0.507▼ FALLING -1.08%σ LOW 0.52%LAST 2.52312.57262.56012.54762.53502.5225μ = 2.5449max 2.5726min 2.5225dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $2.52
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=558,553 · μ=22342.1 · σ=17586.5 · CV=0.79FADING -47% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10017,75135,50353,25471,006μ = 2234271,005.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 71006 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.0s
$mark $
$2.5231
$mid $
$2.5235
◉prev-day close
$2.5467
Δ24h Δ %
-0.927%
$24h vol $
$1.38M
◐open interest $
$6.64M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=2.5449 · σ=0.0133 · range [2.5225, 2.5726] · R²=0.507▼ FALLING -1.08%σ LOW 0.52%LAST 2.52312.57262.56012.54762.53502.5225μ = 2.5449max 2.5726min 2.5225dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $2.5231 · 24h -0.93% · range $[2.5225, 2.5726]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [2.5150, 2.5815] · σ=0.0133 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -0.31%CLOSE 2.5231 vs OPEN 2.5310 (-0.31%)&#9660; CLOSE 2.52312.58152.56492.54832.53162.5150μ close = 2.5449O2.531 H2.551 L2.531 C2.551 (+0.78%)O2.531 H2.551 L2.531 C2.551 (+0.78%)O2.549 H2.561 L2.544 C2.556 (+0.26%)O2.549 H2.561 L2.544 C2.556 (+0.26%)O2.555 H2.561 L2.546 C2.553 (-0.09%)O2.555 H2.561 L2.546 C2.553 (-0.09%)O2.552 H2.564 L2.552 C2.564 (+0.46%)O2.552 H2.564 L2.552 C2.564 (+0.46%)O2.563 H2.582 L2.562 C2.573 (+0.38%)O2.563 H2.582 L2.562 C2.573 (+0.38%)-1.2%O2.572 H2.572 L2.533 C2.543 (-1.15%)O2.572 H2.572 L2.533 C2.543 (-1.15%)O2.543 H2.554 L2.533 C2.542 (-0.02%)O2.543 H2.554 L2.533 C2.542 (-0.02%)O2.542 H2.550 L2.539 C2.541 (-0.03%)O2.542 H2.550 L2.539 C2.541 (-0.03%)O2.543 H2.555 L2.538 C2.541 (-0.08%)O2.543 H2.555 L2.538 C2.541 (-0.08%)O2.541 H2.547 L2.536 C2.546 (+0.22%)O2.541 H2.547 L2.536 C2.546 (+0.22%)O2.547 H2.569 L2.533 C2.561 (+0.52%)O2.547 H2.569 L2.533 C2.561 (+0.52%)O2.563 H2.563 L2.550 C2.551 (-0.47%)O2.563 H2.563 L2.550 C2.551 (-0.47%)O2.551 H2.562 L2.549 C2.557 (+0.22%)O2.551 H2.562 L2.549 C2.557 (+0.22%)O2.555 H2.557 L2.546 C2.548 (-0.31%)O2.555 H2.557 L2.546 C2.548 (-0.31%)O2.546 H2.559 L2.544 C2.555 (+0.32%)O2.546 H2.559 L2.544 C2.555 (+0.32%)O2.553 H2.563 L2.549 C2.558 (+0.21%)O2.553 H2.563 L2.549 C2.558 (+0.21%)O2.558 H2.560 L2.547 C2.551 (-0.24%)O2.558 H2.560 L2.547 C2.551 (-0.24%)O2.553 H2.553 L2.529 C2.531 (-0.88%)O2.553 H2.553 L2.529 C2.531 (-0.88%)O2.531 H2.536 L2.518 C2.535 (+0.16%)O2.531 H2.536 L2.518 C2.535 (+0.16%)O2.534 H2.545 L2.528 C2.529 (-0.22%)O2.534 H2.545 L2.528 C2.529 (-0.22%)O2.529 H2.533 L2.523 C2.530 (+0.03%)O2.529 H2.533 L2.523 C2.530 (+0.03%)O2.529 H2.542 L2.526 C2.530 (+0.03%)O2.529 H2.542 L2.526 C2.530 (+0.03%)O2.530 H2.533 L2.515 C2.533 (+0.13%)O2.530 H2.533 L2.515 C2.533 (+0.13%)O2.531 H2.537 L2.521 C2.522 (-0.35%)O2.531 H2.537 L2.521 C2.522 (-0.35%)O2.522 H2.525 L2.520 C2.523 (+0.02%)O2.522 H2.525 L2.520 C2.523 (+0.02%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=558,553 · μ=22342.1 · σ=17586.5 · CV=0.79FADING -47% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=10017,75135,50353,25471,006μ = 2234224,949.3 · 35.1% peak24,949.3 · 35.1% peak11,328.2 · 16.0% peak11,328.2 · 16.0% peak16,046.6 · 22.6% peak16,046.6 · 22.6% peak61,025.1 · 85.9% peak61,025.1 · 85.9% peak71,005.671,005.6 · 100.0% peak71,005.6 · 100.0% peak36,676.4 · 51.7% peak36,676.4 · 51.7% peak30,471.8 · 42.9% peak30,471.8 · 42.9% peak10,257.2 · 14.4% peak10,257.2 · 14.4% peak12,001.7 · 16.9% peak12,001.7 · 16.9% peak15,853.6 · 22.3% peak15,853.6 · 22.3% peak51,365.7 · 72.3% peak51,365.7 · 72.3% peak23,505.7 · 33.1% peak23,505.7 · 33.1% peak14,515 · 20.4% peak14,515 · 20.4% peak23,630.5 · 33.3% peak23,630.5 · 33.3% peak7,617.5 · 10.7% peak7,617.5 · 10.7% peak15,843.3 · 22.3% peak15,843.3 · 22.3% peak19,504.8 · 27.5% peak19,504.8 · 27.5% peak31,645.2 · 44.6% peak31,645.2 · 44.6% peak9,003.6 · 12.7% peak9,003.6 · 12.7% peak14,681 · 20.7% peak14,681 · 20.7% peak2,975.2 · 4.2% peak2,975.2 · 4.2% peak7,967.5 · 11.2% peak7,967.5 · 11.2% peak34,967.3 · 49.2% peak34,967.3 · 49.2% peak10,467.5 · 14.7% peak10,467.5 · 14.7% peak1,247.3 · 1.8% peak1,247.3 · 1.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 558553 · peak 71006 · CV 0.79

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0037 · skew=-1.12 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.23 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 1-109.31bpbin -109.31bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -109.31bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-94.90bp 1-80.49bpbin -80.49bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -80.49bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-66.08bp-51.67bp 3-37.26bpbin -37.26bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -37.26bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 2-22.85bpbin -22.85bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -22.85bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 3-8.44bpbin -8.44bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -8.44bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 55.96bpbin 5.96bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 5.96bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 620.37bpbin 20.37bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 20.37bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 134.78bpbin 34.78bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 34.78bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 249.19bpbin 49.19bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 49.19bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.13 · kurt=1.37 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00LEFT-SKEWED · HEAVY NEGATIVE TAILUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$2.5231
Mid price
$2.5235
24h change
-0.93%
Mark–mid spread
1.59 bps
Prev-day close
$2.5467

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN2.5449$95% CI: [2.5397$, 2.5501$]
σ STD DEV0.0133$σ² = 1.775×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.52%
med MEDIAN2.5462$Q₁ 2.5331$ · Q₃ 2.5546$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0501$ · IQR 0.0215$ (1.349σ→0.0180$)
min 2.5225$Q₁ 2.5331$med 2.5462$Q₃ 2.5546$max 2.5726$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.023approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.986mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.84
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.76
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-10.88
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.045331%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.116
σᵣ STD / h0.390058%σ²ᵣ = 0.152×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.60×
σ ANNUALISED36.51%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.390%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-10.88negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-8.66downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.21left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.00leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.80
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-397.10%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.76%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.762%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.086%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.994%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.95%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.762%VaR₉₉−1.086%ES₉₅−0.994%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK257.26$
−1.95% drawdown over 19h
252.25$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.30× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.43× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.99% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.114 · within band
Bollinger upper
$2.5650
Bollinger MA
$2.5413
Bollinger lower
$2.5177

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.220within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.092lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.731strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.860significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.731
H = 0.731STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.220k=2-0.092k=3-0.061k=4-0.058k=5-0.2520+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.86)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.68very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.86)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.38M
Open interest (USD)
$6.64M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.21x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.56% · worst -1.17% · typical |Δ| 0.28%MILD BEARISH -1.09%BEST+0.56%21hWORST-1.17%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.28%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.09%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.06%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.59%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.62%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.09%+0.85%-1.11%0.20% · 12h0.20% · 12h0.20%12h-0.12% · 13h-0.12% · 13h-0.12%13h0.45% · 14h0.45% · 14h0.45%14h0.33% · 15h0.33% · 15h0.33%15h-1.17% · 16h-1.17% · 16h-1.17%16h▼ WORST-0.02% · 17h-0.02% · 17h-0.02%17h-0.04% · 18h-0.04% · 18h-0.04%18h-0.01% · 19h-0.01% · 19h-0.01%19h0.20% · 20h0.20% · 20h0.20%20h0.56% · 21h0.56% · 21h0.56%21h★ BEST-0.39% · 22h-0.39% · 22h-0.39%22h0.23% · 23h0.23% · 23h0.23%23h-0.35% · 00h-0.35% · 00h-0.35%00h0.27% · 01h0.27% · 01h0.27%01h0.15% · 02h0.15% · 02h0.15%02h-0.27% · 03h-0.27% · 03h-0.27%03h-0.82% · 04h-0.82% · 04h-0.82%04h0.18% · 05h0.18% · 05h0.18%05h-0.25% · 06h-0.25% · 06h-0.25%06h0.04% · 07h0.04% · 07h0.04%07h0.02% · 08h0.02% · 08h0.02%08h0.12% · 09h0.12% · 09h0.12%09h-0.42% · 10h-0.42% · 10h-0.42%10h0.02% · 11h0.02% · 11h0.02%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.59%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 0.56% · worst -1.17% · typical |Δ| 0.276%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.10%)FINAL-1.10%MAX DD-1.96%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.86%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9890 · peak 1.0086 · range [0.9888, 1.0086]1.00860.9888break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0086UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.96% · moderate0%-1.96%▼ TROUGH -1.96%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.96%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.12%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.96%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9890 (-1.10%) · max DD -1.96% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-13.56 · σ=22.42UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -35.58 (-0.98σ vs μ)48.7124.360.00-24.36-48.71μ = -13.56-8.71-8.71-15.44-15.44-12.43-12.43-20.45-20.45-12.58-12.5815.1415.1427.0327.0310.3010.3021.7921.7919.9419.94-17.83-17.83-28.53-28.53-31.27-31.27-27.99-27.99-40.56-40.56-48.71-48.71-30.21-30.21-21.61-21.61-35.58-35.58v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -35.581 · range [-48.71, 27.03] · μ -13.563 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=38.0569 · σ=10.6886 · range [19.4695, 54.6190] · R²=0.580▼ FALLING -64.35%σ EXTREME 28.09%LAST 19.469554.619045.831637.044328.256919.4695μ = 38.0569max 54.6190min 19.4695dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 19.47% · range [19.47%, 54.62%] · μ 38.06% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.302 · σ=0.189MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.426 (-0.66σ vs μ)0.6160.3080.000-0.308-0.616μ = -0.302-0.193-0.193-0.197-0.197-0.179-0.179-0.369-0.3690.0800.080-0.297-0.297-0.472-0.472-0.457-0.457-0.545-0.545-0.616-0.616-0.529-0.5290.0030.003-0.148-0.148-0.088-0.088-0.328-0.328-0.262-0.262-0.306-0.306-0.401-0.401-0.426-0.426v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.426 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
9.8403
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0073
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.8561
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5725
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5312
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5185
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8760
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3810
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6086
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0219
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0299
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3031
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.687 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.70e-5 · top T=2.00h (28.8%) · top-3 cover 70.9%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)5.9e-54.4e-52.9e-51.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.02e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.02e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.22e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.22e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.04e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.04e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.55e-5 · 17.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.55e-5 · 17.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.46e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.46e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.02e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.02e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.02e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.02e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.06e-5 · 24.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.06e-5 · 24.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.15e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.15e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.18e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.18e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.64e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.64e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.90e-5 · 28.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.90e-5 · 28.8% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 28.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.044e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-118.27×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -39.30400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.017
annualized -39.30
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -40.09σ ann 34% · Sortino -24.86 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4810%-3840%-2870%-1900%-930%41%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)33.9%Ann. vol σ-4008.7%Sharpe (ann)-2485.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
2.4162.4662.5152.5642.6142.663t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:21 UTC
Snapshot age
1.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ac161ae564b0f877d4f355f2d08d715916071ddb6edd7621c58d711a5896f7b0 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,504HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.72

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$11.29K
bid $2.46K · ask $8.83K
Depth within 10bp
$49.55K
bid $18.89K · ask $30.66K
Depth within 50bp
$106.02K
bid $39.96K · ask $66.06K
Mid price
2.523500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.245
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.370
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-uni/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K2.52391.44bp2.52392FILLED
BUY$10.00K2.52433.27bp2.52487FILLED
BUY$100.00K2.52589.16bp2.526720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K2.52321.28bp2.52302FILLED
SELL$10.00K2.52225.33bp2.521411FILLED
SELL$100.00K2.521010.00bp2.520020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-uni/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$2.0000–$3.0000★25$558.55K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-uni/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.142 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$304.71K
real volume
Sell weight
$228.89K
real volume
Net delta
$75.83K
buyers net
Imbalance
14.21%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
14.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-uni/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.21% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h2.5726→2.54141.213%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h2.5585→2.52881.161%3
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms2.5606→2.54760.508%1

/api/asset/hl-uni/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
33.89%
σ per bar = 0.000148
Mean return (annualised)
-1358.72%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-40.09
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.72%
peak 2.56 → trough 2.52 over 3597 bars

/api/asset/hl-uni/risk · same metrics, JSON