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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

TIA

TIA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-tia · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.40%
realized vol (ann.)
45.16%
max drawdown
1.32%
sharpe
-29.50
ulcer index
0.64%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.53%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2096.99
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.23%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1087.10
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.40%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
8.77%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-tia/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.337
24h Δ · live
-0.40%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
TIA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3427 · σ=0.0039 · range [0.3365, 0.3495] · R²=0.287▼ FALLING -0.24%σ NORMAL 1.14%LAST 0.33650.34950.34620.34300.33970.3365μ = 0.3427max 0.3495min 0.3365dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.34
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.6%Short fee 52.4%SHORT FEE52.4%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.998 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.6%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.4%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001001% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,700,015 · μ=68000.6 · σ=83462.0 · CV=1.23BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=60103,330206,660309,990413,320μ = 68001413,319.950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 413320 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.5s
$mark $
$0.3365
$mid $
$0.3366
◉prev-day close
$0.3379
Δ24h Δ %
-0.397%
$24h vol $
$564.58k
◐open interest $
$1.80M
%funding (1h)
0.001001%
%funding (yr)
+8.77%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3427 · σ=0.0039 · range [0.3365, 0.3495] · R²=0.287▼ FALLING -0.24%σ NORMAL 1.14%LAST 0.33650.34950.34620.34300.33970.3365μ = 0.3427max 0.3495min 0.3365dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3365 · 24h -0.40% · range $[0.3365, 0.3495]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.3342, 0.3579] · σ=0.0039 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=37%BULLISH +0.66%CLOSE 0.3365 vs OPEN 0.3342 (+0.66%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.33650.35790.35200.34610.34020.3342μ close = 0.3427O0.334 H0.338 L0.334 C0.337 (+0.91%)O0.334 H0.338 L0.334 C0.337 (+0.91%)O0.337 H0.343 L0.337 C0.341 (+1.16%)O0.337 H0.343 L0.337 C0.341 (+1.16%)O0.341 H0.345 L0.340 C0.341 (+0.22%)O0.341 H0.345 L0.340 C0.341 (+0.22%)O0.342 H0.344 L0.340 C0.343 (+0.23%)O0.342 H0.344 L0.340 C0.343 (+0.23%)2.0%O0.343 H0.358 L0.342 C0.349 (+1.96%)O0.343 H0.358 L0.342 C0.349 (+1.96%)O0.350 H0.352 L0.344 C0.348 (-0.57%)O0.350 H0.352 L0.344 C0.348 (-0.57%)O0.347 H0.353 L0.345 C0.349 (+0.73%)O0.347 H0.353 L0.345 C0.349 (+0.73%)O0.349 H0.350 L0.344 C0.346 (-0.94%)O0.349 H0.350 L0.344 C0.346 (-0.94%)O0.346 H0.349 L0.344 C0.346 (-0.16%)O0.346 H0.349 L0.344 C0.346 (-0.16%)O0.346 H0.347 L0.344 C0.345 (-0.14%)O0.346 H0.347 L0.344 C0.345 (-0.14%)O0.345 H0.350 L0.344 C0.347 (+0.43%)O0.345 H0.350 L0.344 C0.347 (+0.43%)O0.347 H0.348 L0.345 C0.345 (-0.61%)O0.347 H0.348 L0.345 C0.345 (-0.61%)O0.345 H0.347 L0.345 C0.346 (+0.30%)O0.345 H0.347 L0.345 C0.346 (+0.30%)O0.346 H0.347 L0.343 C0.344 (-0.48%)O0.346 H0.347 L0.343 C0.344 (-0.48%)O0.344 H0.346 L0.343 C0.345 (+0.21%)O0.344 H0.346 L0.343 C0.345 (+0.21%)O0.345 H0.347 L0.342 C0.343 (-0.56%)O0.345 H0.347 L0.342 C0.343 (-0.56%)O0.343 H0.344 L0.342 C0.343 (+0.01%)O0.343 H0.344 L0.342 C0.343 (+0.01%)O0.343 H0.343 L0.338 C0.339 (-1.14%)O0.343 H0.343 L0.338 C0.339 (-1.14%)O0.339 H0.341 L0.337 C0.341 (+0.54%)O0.339 H0.341 L0.337 C0.341 (+0.54%)O0.341 H0.343 L0.339 C0.339 (-0.64%)O0.341 H0.343 L0.339 C0.339 (-0.64%)O0.339 H0.339 L0.338 C0.339 (-0.09%)O0.339 H0.339 L0.338 C0.339 (-0.09%)O0.339 H0.341 L0.338 C0.339 (-0.01%)O0.339 H0.341 L0.338 C0.339 (-0.01%)O0.339 H0.340 L0.337 C0.339 (+0.10%)O0.339 H0.340 L0.337 C0.339 (+0.10%)O0.339 H0.340 L0.337 C0.337 (-0.69%)O0.339 H0.340 L0.337 C0.337 (-0.69%)O0.337 H0.337 L0.336 C0.336 (-0.09%)O0.337 H0.337 L0.336 C0.336 (-0.09%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,700,015 · μ=68000.6 · σ=83462.0 · CV=1.23BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=60103,330206,660309,990413,320μ = 68001136,606.9 · 33.1% peak136,606.9 · 33.1% peak413,319.9413,319.9 · 100.0% peak413,319.9 · 100.0% peak33,302.1 · 8.1% peak33,302.1 · 8.1% peak72,319.9 · 17.5% peak72,319.9 · 17.5% peak145,283 · 35.2% peak145,283 · 35.2% peak146,061.5 · 35.3% peak146,061.5 · 35.3% peak90,819.9 · 22.0% peak90,819.9 · 22.0% peak71,973.8 · 17.4% peak71,973.8 · 17.4% peak84,544 · 20.5% peak84,544 · 20.5% peak42,967.9 · 10.4% peak42,967.9 · 10.4% peak55,343.8 · 13.4% peak55,343.8 · 13.4% peak15,239.2 · 3.7% peak15,239.2 · 3.7% peak10,619.3 · 2.6% peak10,619.3 · 2.6% peak15,804.1 · 3.8% peak15,804.1 · 3.8% peak25,046.7 · 6.1% peak25,046.7 · 6.1% peak13,055.6 · 3.2% peak13,055.6 · 3.2% peak18,703.7 · 4.5% peak18,703.7 · 4.5% peak45,963.2 · 11.1% peak45,963.2 · 11.1% peak67,586.5 · 16.4% peak67,586.5 · 16.4% peak35,058 · 8.5% peak35,058 · 8.5% peak14,885.4 · 3.6% peak14,885.4 · 3.6% peak22,329.1 · 5.4% peak22,329.1 · 5.4% peak28,397.5 · 6.9% peak28,397.5 · 6.9% peak88,335.6 · 21.4% peak88,335.6 · 21.4% peak6,448.2 · 1.6% peak6,448.2 · 1.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1700015 · peak 413320 · CV 1.23

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0065 · skew=0.90 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.09 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 2-101.34bpbin -101.34bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -101.34bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 2-75.44bpbin -75.44bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -75.44bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 4-49.53bpbin -49.53bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -49.53bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 2-23.62bpbin -23.62bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -23.62bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 62.29bpbin 2.29bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 2.29bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 428.19bpbin 28.19bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 28.19bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 254.10bpbin 54.10bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 54.10bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak80.01bp105.91bp 1131.82bpbin 131.82bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 131.82bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak157.73bp 1183.64bpbin 183.64bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 183.64bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.93 · kurt=1.59 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.3365
Mid price
$0.3366
24h change
-0.40%
Mark–mid spread
2.97 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3379

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.30)
μ MEAN0.3427$95% CI: [0.3412$, 0.3443$]
σ STD DEV0.0039$σ² = 0.154×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.14%
med MEDIAN0.3432$Q₁ 0.3391$ · Q₃ 0.3459$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0130$ · IQR 0.0068$ (1.349σ→0.0053$)
min 0.3365$Q₁ 0.3391$med 0.3432$Q₃ 0.3459$max 0.3495$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.003approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.298platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.77
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.32
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-1.41
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.010143%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.015
σᵣ STD / h0.674177%σ²ᵣ = 0.455×10⁻⁴ · CV = 66.47×
σ ANNUALISED63.10%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.674%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-1.41negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-1.66downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-23.85drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.99right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.28leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.18
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -23.85
EXPECTED EDGE-88.85%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.98%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.977%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.116%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.085%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.73%18h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.977%VaR₉₉−1.116%ES₉₅−1.085%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 18h duration
PEAK34.95$
−3.73% drawdown over 18h
33.65$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.87% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
44.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.092 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3507
Bollinger MA
$0.3428
Bollinger lower
$0.3350

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.253within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.374lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.037strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.044significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.037
H = 1.037STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.253k=2+0.374k=3-0.081k=4+0.153k=5-0.1470+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.04)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.04)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$564.58k
Open interest (USD)
$1.80M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.31x
1h funding
0.001001%
Funding (annualised)
+8.77%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-2.232× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-1.116× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.558×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.97% · worst -1.14% · typical |Δ| 0.47%MILD BEARISH -0.24%BEST+1.97%15hWORST-1.14%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.47%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.24%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.27% · Σ -2.19%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.36% · Σ +2.88%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.94%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.24%+3.55%-0.24%1.20% · 12h1.20% · 12h1.20%12h-0.00% · 13h-0.00% · 13h-0.00%13h0.35% · 14h0.35% · 14h0.35%14h1.97% · 15h1.97% · 15h1.97%15h★ BEST-0.49% · 16h-0.49% · 16h-0.49%16h0.54% · 17h0.54% · 17h0.54%17h-1.03% · 18h-1.03% · 18h-1.03%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h0.00%19h-0.12% · 20h-0.12% · 20h-0.12%20h0.37% · 21h0.37% · 21h0.37%21h-0.45% · 22h-0.45% · 22h-0.45%22h0.25% · 23h0.25% · 23h0.25%23h-0.47% · 00h-0.47% · 00h-0.47%00h0.17% · 01h0.17% · 01h0.17%01h-0.53% · 02h-0.53% · 02h-0.53%02h-0.01% · 03h-0.01% · 03h-0.01%03h-1.14% · 04h-1.14% · 04h-1.14%04h▼ WORST0.51% · 05h0.51% · 05h0.51%05h-0.69% · 06h-0.69% · 06h-0.69%06h-0.02% · 07h-0.02% · 07h-0.02%07h0.02% · 08h0.02% · 08h0.02%08h0.13% · 09h0.13% · 09h0.13%09h-0.65% · 10h-0.65% · 10h-0.65%10h-0.13% · 11h-0.13% · 11h-0.13%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.88%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.97% · worst -1.14% · typical |Δ| 0.468%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.30%)FINAL-0.30%MAX DD-3.75%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.59%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9970 · peak 1.0359 · range [0.9970, 1.0359]1.03590.9970break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0359UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.75% · moderate0%-3.75%▼ TROUGH -3.75%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -3.75%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.49%bar 6-6 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.00%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.75%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9970 (-0.30%) · max DD -3.75% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-20.27 · σ=30.53UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -59.11 (-1.27σ vs μ)63.1931.600.00-31.60-63.19μ = -20.2763.1963.1920.1620.1620.2520.2513.0313.03-19.92-19.92-19.07-19.07-29.93-29.93-19.02-19.02-11.07-11.07-24.89-24.89-46.23-46.23-51.02-51.02-38.81-38.81-43.03-43.03-49.94-49.94-35.33-35.33-31.01-31.01-23.46-23.46-59.11-59.11v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -59.110 · range [-59.11, 63.19] · μ -20.275 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=56.3497 · σ=21.3464 · range [32.6924, 96.7156] · R²=0.364▼ FALLING -59.50%σ EXTREME 37.88%LAST 33.251596.715680.709864.704048.698232.6924μ = 56.3497max 96.7156min 32.6924dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 33.25% · range [32.69%, 96.72%] · μ 56.35% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.558 · σ=0.208MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.235 (+1.55σ vs μ)0.8530.4270.000-0.427-0.853μ = -0.558-0.515-0.515-0.317-0.317-0.260-0.260-0.311-0.311-0.579-0.579-0.538-0.538-0.297-0.297-0.731-0.731-0.818-0.818-0.739-0.739-0.853-0.853-0.427-0.427-0.673-0.673-0.757-0.757-0.822-0.822-0.722-0.722-0.547-0.547-0.458-0.458-0.235-0.235v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.235 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
9.1110
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.3392
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1954
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3805
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5903
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1374
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0326
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4666
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0492
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4204
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6742
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.872 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.41e-5 · top T=2.00h (38.9%) · top-3 cover 60.8%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.5e-41.9e-41.3e-46.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.90e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.90e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.65e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.65e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.16e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.16e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.07e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.07e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.89e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.89e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.99e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.99e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.62e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.62e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.30e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.30e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.05e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.05e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.52e-4 · 38.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.52e-4 · 38.9% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 38.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.489e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-72.59×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -41.26400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.018
annualized -41.26
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -38.54σ ann 53% · Sortino -30.96 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4624%-3687%-2749%-1812%-874%64%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)53.1%Ann. vol σ-3853.7%Sharpe (ann)-3096.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.3230.3300.3370.3440.3510.358t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:09 UTC
Snapshot age
3.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:12 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
90671c0e9ca7b51b800a87f55be216105c90760144149de07a4ea61b7917e3ac · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.25K
bid $759 · ask $2.49K
Depth within 10bp
$14.13K
bid $7.69K · ask $6.44K
Depth within 50bp
$74.53K
bid $32.56K · ask $41.97K
Mid price
0.336645
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.125
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.439
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-tia/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3367723.77bp0.3367904FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.3369168.04bp0.33703012FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.33720716.71bp0.33743020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3365183.76bp0.3364502FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.3363917.55bp0.33629011FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.33624711.83bp0.33599020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.001e-5
0.00100% / hr
Annualised APR
8.775%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
41.6d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
41.6d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-8.775%41.6d1.14y
SHORTRECEIVE8.775%41.6d1.14y

/api/asset/hl-tia/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.70M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-tia/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.299 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.02M
real volume
Sell weight
$547.80K
real volume
Net delta
$467.81K
buyers net
Imbalance
29.92%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
29.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-tia/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.16% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 02:00:00Z6.0h0.346050→0.3385702.162%7
#22026-06-13 18:00:00Z2.0h0.349470→0.3454801.142%3
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h0.339070→0.3364500.773%2

/api/asset/hl-tia/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
53.09%
σ per bar = 0.000232
Mean return (annualised)
-2045.78%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-38.54
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.30%
peak 0.34 → trough 0.34 over 4488 bars

/api/asset/hl-tia/risk · same metrics, JSON