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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

STX

STX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-stx · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.79%
realized vol (ann.)
73.72%
max drawdown
2.32%
sharpe
-28.82
ulcer index
1.22%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1738.46
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.07%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1027.97
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.79%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.44%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-stx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.185
24h Δ · live
-0.79%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
STX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1856 · σ=0.0017 · range [0.1842, 0.1919] · R²=0.050▼ FALLING -0.86%σ LOW 0.90%LAST 0.18450.19190.19000.18810.18620.1842μ = 0.1856max 0.1919min 0.1842dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.18
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.0%Short fee 52.0%SHORT FEE52.0%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.0%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.0%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001192% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,010,390 · μ=40415.6 · σ=47973.3 · CV=1.19BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=17048,60697,213145,819194,425μ = 40416194,425.150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 194425 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.6s
$mark $
$0.1848
$mid $
$0.1848
◉prev-day close
$0.1863
Δ24h Δ %
-0.789%
$24h vol $
$175.51k
◐open interest $
$597.82k
%funding (1h)
0.001192%
%funding (yr)
+10.44%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1856 · σ=0.0017 · range [0.1842, 0.1919] · R²=0.050▼ FALLING -0.86%σ LOW 0.90%LAST 0.18450.19190.19000.18810.18620.1842μ = 0.1856max 0.1919min 0.1842dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1848 · 24h -0.79% · range $[0.1842, 0.1919]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.1834, 0.1933] · σ=0.0017 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%BEARISH -0.86%CLOSE 0.1845 vs OPEN 0.1862 (-0.86%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.18450.19330.19080.18840.18590.1834μ close = 0.1856O0.186 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.00%)O0.186 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.00%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.75%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.75%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.18%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.18%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.12%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.12%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.05%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.05%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (+0.31%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (+0.31%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.51%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.51%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.54%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.54%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.26%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.26%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.185 C0.185 (+0.17%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.185 C0.185 (+0.17%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.47%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.47%)O0.186 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.22%)O0.186 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.22%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.20%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.20%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.184 C0.185 (-1.12%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.184 C0.185 (-1.12%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.184 C0.184 (-0.11%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.184 C0.184 (-0.11%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.184 C0.184 (-0.15%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.184 C0.184 (-0.15%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (+0.18%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (+0.18%)O0.184 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (+0.37%)O0.184 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (+0.37%)3.7%O0.185 H0.192 L0.185 C0.192 (+3.67%)O0.185 H0.192 L0.185 C0.192 (+3.67%)O0.192 H0.193 L0.188 C0.189 (-1.79%)O0.192 H0.193 L0.188 C0.189 (-1.79%)O0.188 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.96%)O0.188 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.96%)O0.186 H0.188 L0.185 C0.186 (-0.26%)O0.186 H0.188 L0.185 C0.186 (-0.26%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.50%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.50%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.183 C0.185 (-0.26%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.183 C0.185 (-0.26%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.21%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.21%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,010,390 · μ=40415.6 · σ=47973.3 · CV=1.19BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=17048,60697,213145,819194,425μ = 4041686,344.8 · 44.4% peak86,344.8 · 44.4% peak52,122.7 · 26.8% peak52,122.7 · 26.8% peak28,898 · 14.9% peak28,898 · 14.9% peak13,722.4 · 7.1% peak13,722.4 · 7.1% peak34,305.9 · 17.6% peak34,305.9 · 17.6% peak25,763 · 13.3% peak25,763 · 13.3% peak17,200.7 · 8.8% peak17,200.7 · 8.8% peak19,572.9 · 10.1% peak19,572.9 · 10.1% peak9,999 · 5.1% peak9,999 · 5.1% peak44,105.2 · 22.7% peak44,105.2 · 22.7% peak13,651 · 7.0% peak13,651 · 7.0% peak23,780.8 · 12.2% peak23,780.8 · 12.2% peak10,734.8 · 5.5% peak10,734.8 · 5.5% peak14,692.1 · 7.6% peak14,692.1 · 7.6% peak37,126.2 · 19.1% peak37,126.2 · 19.1% peak70,625.1 · 36.3% peak70,625.1 · 36.3% peak9,943.7 · 5.1% peak9,943.7 · 5.1% peak8,804.3 · 4.5% peak8,804.3 · 4.5% peak194,425.1194,425.1 · 100.0% peak194,425.1 · 100.0% peak176,717.6 · 90.9% peak176,717.6 · 90.9% peak29,431.6 · 15.1% peak29,431.6 · 15.1% peak20,836.7 · 10.7% peak20,836.7 · 10.7% peak23,704.7 · 12.2% peak23,704.7 · 12.2% peak42,294.7 · 21.8% peak42,294.7 · 21.8% peak1,587.2 · 0.8% peak1,587.2 · 0.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1010390 · peak 194425 · CV 1.19

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0090 · skew=1.94 (right-skewed) · kurt=6.59 (leptokurtic (fat tails))97520 2-145.89bpbin -145.89bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -145.89bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak 1-101.41bpbin -101.41bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -101.41bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 3-56.94bpbin -56.94bp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -56.94bp · n=3 · 33.3% peak 9-12.46bpbin -12.46bp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -12.46bp · n=9 · 100.0% peak 732.01bpbin 32.01bp · n=7 · 77.8% peakbin 32.01bp · n=7 · 77.8% peak 176.48bpbin 76.48bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 76.48bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak120.96bp165.43bp209.91bp254.38bp298.86bp 1343.33bpbin 343.33bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 343.33bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.21 · kurt=7.83 · near 14 / mid 9 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.87 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.92σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1848
Mid price
$0.1848
24h change
-0.79%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1863

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=6.25)
μ MEAN0.1856$95% CI: [0.1849$, 0.1862$]
σ STD DEV0.0017$σ² = 0.028×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.90%
med MEDIAN0.1850$Q₁ 0.1846$ · Q₃ 0.1861$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0077$ · IQR 0.0015$ (1.349σ→0.0022$)
min 0.1842$Q₁ 0.1846$med 0.1850$Q₃ 0.1861$max 0.1919$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.444right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂6.251leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.36
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.48
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.64
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-3.53
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.035968%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.038
σᵣ STD / h0.952829%σ²ᵣ = 0.908×10⁻⁴ · CV = 26.49×
σ ANNUALISED89.18%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.953%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-3.53negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-4.86downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-81.84drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁2.36right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂10.05leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.38
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -81.84
EXPECTED EDGE-315.08%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.21%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.210%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.580%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.462%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.85%6h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.210%VaR₉₉−1.580%ES₉₅−1.462%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 6h duration
PEAK19.19$
−3.85% drawdown over 6h
18.45$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.31× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.00% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
44.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.337 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1893
Bollinger MA
$0.1857
Bollinger lower
$0.1821

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.105within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.182lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.905strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.102fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.905
H = 0.905STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.105k=2-0.182k=3-0.119k=4-0.082k=5-0.2040+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.10)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.91very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.10)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$175.51k
Open interest (USD)
$597.82k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.29x
1h funding
0.001192%
Funding (annualised)
+10.44%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-3.962× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-1.981× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.990×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.66% · worst -1.68% · typical |Δ| 0.53%BEARISH SESSION -0.86%BEST+3.66%09hWORST-1.68%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.53%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.86%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 6down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.11%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.02%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.77%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.86%+3.06%-1.04%-0.73% · 16h-0.73% · 16h-0.73%16h-0.11% · 17h-0.11% · 17h-0.11%17h-0.03% · 18h-0.03% · 18h-0.03%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.24% · 20h0.24% · 20h0.24%20h0.61% · 21h0.61% · 21h0.61%21h-0.63% · 22h-0.63% · 22h-0.63%22h-0.11% · 23h-0.11% · 23h-0.11%23h0.16% · 00h0.16% · 00h0.16%00h0.45% · 01h0.45% · 01h0.45%01h0.24% · 02h0.24% · 02h0.24%02h0.13% · 03h0.13% · 03h0.13%03h-1.03% · 04h-1.03% · 04h-1.03%04h-0.11% · 05h-0.11% · 05h-0.11%05h-0.10% · 06h-0.10% · 06h-0.10%06h0.15% · 07h0.15% · 07h0.15%07h0.29% · 08h0.29% · 08h0.29%08h3.66% · 09h3.66% · 09h3.66%09h★ BEST-1.68% · 10h-1.68% · 10h-1.68%10h▼ WORST-1.24% · 11h-1.24% · 11h-1.24%11h-0.38% · 12h-0.38% · 12h-0.38%12h-0.30% · 13h-0.30% · 13h-0.30%13h-0.23% · 14h-0.23% · 14h-0.23%14h-0.10% · 15h-0.10% · 15h-0.10%15hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.02%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 6BREADTH38% up · 58% down · 4% flat
9 up bars · 14 down · best 3.66% · worst -1.68% · typical |Δ| 0.530%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.96%)FINAL-0.96%MAX DD-3.87%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.03%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 6EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9904 · peak 1.0303 · range [0.9895, 1.0303]1.03030.9895break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0303UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.87% · moderate0%-3.87%▼ TROUGH -3.87%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -3.87%bar 20-25 · 6 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.24%bar 14-18 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.87%bar 2-11 · 10 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.87%)RECOVERYongoing · 6 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9904 (-0.96%) · max DD -3.87% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=-1.30 · σ=26.84MIXED EDGELAST -94.64 (-3.48σ vs μ)94.6447.320.00-47.32-94.64μ = -1.30-0.95-0.952.892.892.892.8910.0210.0225.2525.2525.2025.209.819.81-4.84-4.84-4.84-4.84-12.94-12.94-24.36-24.36-22.07-22.0727.4027.4019.5019.508.918.916.606.602.842.84-1.42-1.42-94.64-94.64v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -94.635 · range [-94.64, 27.40] · μ -1.303 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=83.9586 · σ=61.1521 · range [35.1543, 177.7403] · R²=0.550▲ RISING +46.26%σ EXTREME 72.84%LAST 60.5726177.7403142.0938106.447370.800835.1543μ = 83.9586max 177.7403min 35.1543dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.55μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 60.57% · range [35.15%, 177.74%] · μ 83.96% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.052 · σ=0.222CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.442 (+2.23σ vs μ)0.4420.2210.000-0.221-0.442μ = -0.0520.2370.237-0.294-0.294-0.203-0.203-0.226-0.226-0.132-0.132-0.152-0.1520.3310.3310.0630.0630.1380.1380.0550.055-0.128-0.128-0.097-0.0970.0680.068-0.428-0.428-0.194-0.194-0.147-0.147-0.135-0.135-0.195-0.1950.4420.442v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.442 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
123.1347
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.2401
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6656
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.9082
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0454
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-2.2259
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0260
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1545
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4363
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7011
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4832
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.787 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.53e-5 · top T=2.00h (17.3%) · top-3 cover 50.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.0e-41.5e-49.9e-55.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.22e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.22e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.60e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.60e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.64e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.64e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.83e-4 · 16.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.83e-4 · 16.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.06e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.06e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.24e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.24e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.04e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.04e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.92e-4 · 16.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.92e-4 · 16.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.21e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.21e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.74e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.74e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.10e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.10e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.98e-4 · 17.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.98e-4 · 17.3% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 17.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.143e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 6.90× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 6.88× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
6.90×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
6.88×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
3.45×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.73×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.72× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 9.16400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.72× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 9.16
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.06%
VaR 95%5%
0.09%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.14%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.08×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 416% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 5.35σ ann 78% · Sortino 3.70 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%416.3%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)77.8%Ann. vol σ535.3%Sharpe (ann)369.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1760.1810.1860.1910.1960.201t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:11:40 UTC
Snapshot age
2.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:11:43 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9d65d247efa65476ba798a461220f7f4f528f88590fe28eeae09c0d48e3ff1f5 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,076.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.53K
bid $915 · ask $616
Depth within 10bp
$7.92K
bid $3.95K · ask $3.97K
Depth within 50bp
$70.09K
bid $49.38K · ask $20.71K
Mid price
0.184800
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.290
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.002
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-stx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1848894.81bp0.1849403FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.18500911.33bp0.1851509FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.18539632.25bp0.18680020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1847313.73bp0.1847003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.18461010.27bp0.18447011FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.18438422.51bp0.18415020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.192e-5
0.00119% / hr
Annualised APR
10.452%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
34.9d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
34.9d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.452%34.9d349.5d
SHORTRECEIVE10.452%34.9d349.5d

/api/asset/hl-stx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.01M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-stx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.246 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$348.41K
real volume
Sell weight
$575.64K
real volume
Net delta
$227.23K
sellers net
Imbalance
-24.59%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
24.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-stx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.85% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 10:00:00Z5.0h0.191940→0.1845503.850%6
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.186540→0.1842301.238%3
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.186150→0.1845300.870%3

/api/asset/hl-stx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
77.77%
σ per bar = 0.000339
Mean return (annualised)
416.30%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
5.35
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.22%
peak 0.19 → trough 0.18 over 2663 bars

/api/asset/hl-stx/risk · same metrics, JSON