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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

STRK

STRK-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-strk · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.47%
realized vol (ann.)
61.57%
max drawdown
1.27%
sharpe
-11.24
ulcer index
0.54%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.42%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1283.91
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.11%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-624.90
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.47%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-17.18%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change -1.47%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 14.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-strk/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.034
24h Δ · live
-1.47%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
STRK · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0347 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0342, 0.0350] · R²=0.328▼ FALLING -1.01%σ LOW 0.66%LAST 0.03420.03500.03480.03460.03440.0342μ = 0.0347max 0.0350min 0.0342dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.8%Short fee 51.2%SHORT FEE51.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.001961% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=11,374,692 · μ=454987.7 · σ=456854.3 · CV=1.00BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140518,3901,036,7791,555,1692,073,559μ = 4549882,073,558.950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2073559 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.2s
$mark $
$0.0341
$mid $
$0.0341
◉prev-day close
$0.0347
Δ24h Δ %
-1.472%
$24h vol $
$390.40k
◐open interest $
$2.67M
%funding (1h)
-0.001961%
%funding (yr)
-17.18%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0347 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0342, 0.0350] · R²=0.328▼ FALLING -1.01%σ LOW 0.66%LAST 0.03420.03500.03480.03460.03440.0342μ = 0.0347max 0.0350min 0.0342dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0341 · 24h -1.47% · range $[0.0342, 0.0350]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.0341, 0.0355] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=33%BEARISH -0.23%CLOSE 0.0342 vs OPEN 0.0342 (-0.23%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.03420.03550.03510.03480.03440.0341μ close = 0.0347O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (+0.79%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (+0.79%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (+0.78%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (+0.78%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.23%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.23%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.14%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.14%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.52%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.52%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-0.49%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-0.49%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.17%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.17%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.14%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.14%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.03%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.03%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.11%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.11%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.55%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.55%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.43%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.43%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.29%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.29%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-0.23%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-0.23%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.20%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.20%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.06%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.06%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.69%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.69%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.06%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.06%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.17%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.17%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.69%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.69%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.29%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.29%)-0.9%O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.87%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.87%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.53%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.53%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.61%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.61%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.15%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.15%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=11,374,692 · μ=454987.7 · σ=456854.3 · CV=1.00BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140518,3901,036,7791,555,1692,073,559μ = 454988180,489.6 · 8.7% peak180,489.6 · 8.7% peak600,528.5 · 29.0% peak600,528.5 · 29.0% peak388,643.8 · 18.7% peak388,643.8 · 18.7% peak317,261 · 15.3% peak317,261 · 15.3% peak435,082.8 · 21.0% peak435,082.8 · 21.0% peak1,148,278.9 · 55.4% peak1,148,278.9 · 55.4% peak1,151,870.2 · 55.6% peak1,151,870.2 · 55.6% peak255,822.3 · 12.3% peak255,822.3 · 12.3% peak228,813.1 · 11.0% peak228,813.1 · 11.0% peak363,588.7 · 17.5% peak363,588.7 · 17.5% peak204,110.8 · 9.8% peak204,110.8 · 9.8% peak176,787.2 · 8.5% peak176,787.2 · 8.5% peak171,858.4 · 8.3% peak171,858.4 · 8.3% peak314,951.7 · 15.2% peak314,951.7 · 15.2% peak111,792.4 · 5.4% peak111,792.4 · 5.4% peak645,605.6 · 31.1% peak645,605.6 · 31.1% peak148,655.9 · 7.2% peak148,655.9 · 7.2% peak2,073,558.92,073,558.9 · 100.0% peak2,073,558.9 · 100.0% peak379,148.2 · 18.3% peak379,148.2 · 18.3% peak268,834.3 · 13.0% peak268,834.3 · 13.0% peak372,765.5 · 18.0% peak372,765.5 · 18.0% peak1,042,971.1 · 50.3% peak1,042,971.1 · 50.3% peak203,113.1 · 9.8% peak203,113.1 · 9.8% peak85,715.9 · 4.1% peak85,715.9 · 4.1% peak104,443.8 · 5.0% peak104,443.8 · 5.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 11374692 · peak 2073559 · CV 1.00

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0044 · skew=-0.22 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.76 (mesokurtic)43210 1-91.60bpbin -91.60bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -91.60bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-77.36bpbin -77.36bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -77.36bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-63.12bpbin -63.12bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -63.12bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-48.88bpbin -48.88bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -48.88bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-34.63bpbin -34.63bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -34.63bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 4-20.39bpbin -20.39bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -20.39bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 3-6.15bpbin -6.15bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -6.15bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 38.09bpbin 8.09bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 8.09bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 322.33bpbin 22.33bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 22.33bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak36.58bp 350.82bpbin 50.82bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 50.82bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 265.06bpbin 65.06bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 65.06bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.20 · kurt=-0.66 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0341
Mid price
$0.0341
24h change
-1.47%
Mark–mid spread
2.93 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0347

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.00)
μ MEAN0.0347$95% CI: [0.0346$, 0.0348$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.66%
med MEDIAN0.0348$Q₁ 0.0346$ · Q₃ 0.0348$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0008$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0342$Q₁ 0.0346$med 0.0348$Q₃ 0.0348$max 0.0350$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.997left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.071mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.30
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.40
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.73
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-8.71
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.042474%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.093
σᵣ STD / h0.456231%σ²ᵣ = 0.208×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.74×
σ ANNUALISED42.70%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.456%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-8.71negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-8.40downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.21approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.52mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.96
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-372.07%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.73%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.727%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.928%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.858%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.43%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.727%VaR₉₉−0.928%ES₉₅−0.858%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK3.50$
−2.43% drawdown over 14h
3.42$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.18× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.28× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.49% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.045 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.0352
Bollinger MA
$0.0347
Bollinger lower
$0.0342

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.291within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.311lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.064strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.353significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.064
H = 1.064STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.291k=2+0.311k=3-0.165k=4+0.091k=5-0.2890+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.35)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.35)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$390.40k
Open interest (USD)
$2.67M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.15x
1h funding
-0.001961%
Funding (annualised)
-17.18%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.72% · worst -0.99% · typical |Δ| 0.36%MILD BEARISH -1.02%BEST+0.72%12hWORST-0.99%08hTYPICAL |Δ|0.36%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.02%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.23%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.04%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.83%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.02%+1.44%-1.02%0.72% · 12h0.72% · 12h0.72%12h★ BEST0.03% · 13h0.03% · 13h0.03%13h0.06% · 14h0.06% · 14h0.06%14h0.54% · 15h0.54% · 15h0.54%15h-0.57% · 16h-0.57% · 16h-0.57%16h0.29% · 17h0.29% · 17h0.29%17h-0.09% · 18h-0.09% · 18h-0.09%18h0.03% · 19h0.03% · 19h0.03%19h-0.06% · 20h-0.06% · 20h-0.06%20h0.49% · 21h0.49% · 21h0.49%21h-0.40% · 22h-0.40% · 22h-0.40%22h-0.52% · 23h-0.52% · 23h-0.52%23h-0.17% · 00h-0.17% · 00h-0.17%00h0.23% · 01h0.23% · 01h0.23%01h-0.20% · 02h-0.20% · 02h-0.20%02h0.60% · 03h0.60% · 03h0.60%03h-0.03% · 04h-0.03% · 04h-0.03%04h0.23% · 05h0.23% · 05h0.23%05h-0.72% · 06h-0.72% · 06h-0.72%06h-0.17% · 07h-0.17% · 07h-0.17%07h-0.99% · 08h-0.99% · 08h-0.99%08h▼ WORST0.55% · 09h0.55% · 09h0.55%09h-0.73% · 10h-0.73% · 10h-0.73%10h-0.15% · 11h-0.15% · 11h-0.15%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.04%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.72% · worst -0.99% · typical |Δ| 0.357%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.04%)FINAL-1.04%MAX DD-2.44%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.44%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9896 · peak 1.0144 · range [0.9896, 1.0144]1.01440.9896break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0144UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.44% · moderate0%-2.44%▼ TROUGH -2.44%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.44%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.57%bar 6-10 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.44%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9896 (-1.04%) · max DD -2.44% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-9.06 · σ=25.43MIXED EDGELAST -61.23 (-2.05σ vs μ)61.2330.620.00-30.62-61.23μ = -9.0636.4236.4210.7210.7210.7110.715.925.923.693.6913.0113.01-24.06-24.06-27.77-27.77-17.72-17.72-23.44-23.44-17.01-17.01-3.45-3.4533.6333.633.973.97-10.10-10.10-28.34-28.34-30.39-30.39-46.74-46.74-61.23-61.23v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -61.234 · range [-61.23, 36.42] · μ -9.062 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=39.8332 · σ=8.7786 · range [28.6931, 56.9981] · R²=0.458▲ RISING +22.71%σ EXTREME 22.04%LAST 52.465356.998149.921942.845635.769428.6931μ = 39.8332max 56.9981min 28.6931dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.46μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 52.47% · range [28.69%, 57.00%] · μ 39.83% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.360 · σ=0.289MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.745 (-1.34σ vs μ)0.7450.3730.000-0.373-0.745μ = -0.360-0.446-0.446-0.684-0.684-0.681-0.681-0.696-0.696-0.340-0.340-0.561-0.561-0.036-0.0360.0150.015-0.020-0.020-0.104-0.1040.0360.036-0.172-0.172-0.662-0.662-0.360-0.360-0.186-0.186-0.028-0.028-0.459-0.459-0.708-0.708-0.745-0.745v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.745 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4548
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7966
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.8552
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1138
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0016
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7513
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2965
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4751
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0473
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8220
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4111
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.750 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.49e-5 · top T=2.00h (39.7%) · top-3 cover 66.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.2e-48.9e-55.9e-53.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.97e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.97e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.22e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.22e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.01e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.01e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.19e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.19e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.15e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.15e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.31e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.31e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.50e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.50e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.87e-5 · 16.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.87e-5 · 16.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.10e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.10e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.09e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.09e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.47e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.47e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.18e-4 · 39.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.18e-4 · 39.7% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 39.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.986e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-20.15×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -17.39400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -17.39
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -16.84σ ann 84% · Sortino -11.45 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2021%-1597%-1172%-748%-324%100%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)83.6%Ann. vol σ-1684.1%Sharpe (ann)-1145.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0330.0340.0340.0350.0360.037t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:26 UTC
Snapshot age
2.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
cfe91f881025b6f11a86fc4a97f986ad8ffe63f53a2081d151ec1bdce8c52537 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,504HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.73

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$6.82K
bid $3.97K · ask $2.85K
Depth within 10bp
$15.65K
bid $7.82K · ask $7.83K
Depth within 50bp
$205.41K
bid $106.34K · ask $99.07K
Mid price
0.034165
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.025
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.020
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-strk/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0341701.46bp0.0341701FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0341886.69bp0.0342004FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03426228.52bp0.03434015FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0341601.46bp0.0341601FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0341436.39bp0.0341304FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03407426.78bp0.03401014FILLED

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.961e-5
-0.00196% / hr
Annualised APR
-17.190%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
21.2d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
21.2d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE17.190%21.2d212.5d
SHORTPAY-17.190%21.2d212.5d

/api/asset/hl-strk/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$11.37M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-strk/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.255 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.17M
real volume
Sell weight
$7.03M
real volume
Net delta
$2.86M
sellers net
Imbalance
-25.51%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
25.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-strk/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.18% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 06:00:00Z5.0h0.034920→0.0341602.176%6
#22026-06-13 23:00:00Z1.0h0.035010→0.0346301.085%2
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z0ms0.034980→0.0347800.572%1

/api/asset/hl-strk/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
83.60%
σ per bar = 0.000365
Mean return (annualised)
-1407.93%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-16.84
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.92%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.03 over 2406 bars

/api/asset/hl-strk/risk · same metrics, JSON