Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SEI

SEI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-sei · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.48%
realized vol (ann.)
52.41%
max drawdown
1.43%
sharpe
-20.71
ulcer index
0.70%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.60%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1542.15
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.29%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-844.57
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.48%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.48%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 9.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-sei/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.053
24h Δ · live
-3.48%
24h vol · live
$0.5M
SEI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0539 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0530, 0.0548] · R²=0.824▼ FALLING -2.99%σ LOW 0.98%LAST 0.05310.05480.05430.05390.05340.0530μ = 0.0539max 0.0548min 0.0530dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=11,047,554 · μ=441902.2 · σ=279050.2 · CV=0.63STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140310,791621,582932,3731,243,164μ = 4419021,243,16450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1243164 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.8s
$mark $
$0.0532
$mid $
$0.0532
◉prev-day close
$0.0551
Δ24h Δ %
-3.483%
$24h vol $
$538.34k
◐open interest $
$1.53M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0539 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0530, 0.0548] · R²=0.824▼ FALLING -2.99%σ LOW 0.98%LAST 0.05310.05480.05430.05390.05340.0530μ = 0.0539max 0.0548min 0.0530dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0532 · 24h -3.48% · range $[0.0530, 0.0548]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0529, 0.0551] · σ=0.0005 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%BEARISH -2.88%CLOSE 0.0531 vs OPEN 0.0547 (-2.88%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.05310.05510.05460.05400.05350.0529μ close = 0.0539O0.055 H0.055 L0.055 C0.055 (+0.11%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.055 C0.055 (+0.11%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (-0.22%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (-0.22%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.51%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.51%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.16%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.16%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.23%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.23%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.05%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.05%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.03%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.03%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.10%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.10%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.21%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.21%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.01%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.01%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.13%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.13%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.40%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.40%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.73%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.73%)-1.3%O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.31%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.31%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.40%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.40%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.57%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.57%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.42%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.42%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.87%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.87%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.64%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.64%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.38%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.38%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.82%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.82%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.39%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.39%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.44%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.44%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.13%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.13%)O0.053 H0.053 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.40%)O0.053 H0.053 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.40%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=11,047,554 · μ=441902.2 · σ=279050.2 · CV=0.63STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140310,791621,582932,3731,243,164μ = 4419021,243,1641,243,164 · 100.0% peak1,243,164 · 100.0% peak255,457 · 20.5% peak255,457 · 20.5% peak282,268 · 22.7% peak282,268 · 22.7% peak369,022 · 29.7% peak369,022 · 29.7% peak210,461 · 16.9% peak210,461 · 16.9% peak462,825 · 37.2% peak462,825 · 37.2% peak768,980 · 61.9% peak768,980 · 61.9% peak303,886 · 24.4% peak303,886 · 24.4% peak453,014 · 36.4% peak453,014 · 36.4% peak254,646 · 20.5% peak254,646 · 20.5% peak368,727 · 29.7% peak368,727 · 29.7% peak126,178 · 10.1% peak126,178 · 10.1% peak196,948 · 15.8% peak196,948 · 15.8% peak526,596 · 42.4% peak526,596 · 42.4% peak659,589 · 53.1% peak659,589 · 53.1% peak861,379 · 69.3% peak861,379 · 69.3% peak366,645 · 29.5% peak366,645 · 29.5% peak325,268 · 26.2% peak325,268 · 26.2% peak305,531 · 24.6% peak305,531 · 24.6% peak928,439 · 74.7% peak928,439 · 74.7% peak663,216 · 53.3% peak663,216 · 53.3% peak307,121 · 24.7% peak307,121 · 24.7% peak544,636 · 43.8% peak544,636 · 43.8% peak185,929 · 15.0% peak185,929 · 15.0% peak77,629 · 6.2% peak77,629 · 6.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 11047554 · peak 1243164 · CV 0.63

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0051 · skew=-0.20 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.66 (mesokurtic)43210 1-119.15bpbin -119.15bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -119.15bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-101.84bpbin -101.84bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -101.84bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-84.54bpbin -84.54bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -84.54bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-67.23bpbin -67.23bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -67.23bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-49.92bpbin -49.92bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -49.92bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-32.62bpbin -32.62bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -32.62bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-15.31bpbin -15.31bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -15.31bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 21.99bpbin 1.99bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 1.99bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 419.30bpbin 19.30bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 19.30bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 136.61bpbin 36.61bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 36.61bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 253.91bpbin 53.91bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 53.91bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 271.22bpbin 71.22bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 71.22bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.24 · kurt=-0.52 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0532
Mid price
$0.0532
24h change
-3.48%
Mark–mid spread
1.13 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0551

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.32)
μ MEAN0.0539$95% CI: [0.0537$, 0.0541$]
σ STD DEV0.0005$σ² = 0.003×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.98%
med MEDIAN0.0540$Q₁ 0.0535$ · Q₃ 0.0544$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0018$ · IQR 0.0009$ (1.349σ→0.0007$)
min 0.0530$Q₁ 0.0535$med 0.0540$Q₃ 0.0544$max 0.0548$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.101approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.321platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.19
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.80
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.39
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-22.38
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.126324%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.239
σᵣ STD / h0.528285%σ²ᵣ = 0.279×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.18×
σ ANNUALISED49.44%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.528%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-22.38negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-19.26downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.25approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.35mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.86
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1106.60%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.94%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.944%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.205%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.119%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.26%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.944%VaR₉₉−1.205%ES₉₅−1.119%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK5.48$
−3.26% drawdown over 19h
5.30$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.19× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.28× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.37% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
35.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.163 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0547
Bollinger MA
$0.0538
Bollinger lower
$0.0529

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.144within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.349lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.852strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.361significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.852
H = 0.852STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.144k=2-0.349k=3-0.248k=4+0.233k=5+0.0610+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.36)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.85very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.36)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$538.34k
Open interest (USD)
$1.53M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.35x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.80% · worst -1.28% · typical |Δ| 0.43%MILD BEARISH -3.03%BEST+0.80%07hWORST-1.28%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.43%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.03%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.84%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.91%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.28%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.03%+0.00%-3.31%-0.18% · 12h-0.18% · 12h-0.18%12h-0.56% · 13h-0.56% · 13h-0.56%13h0.12% · 14h0.12% · 14h0.12%14h0.23% · 15h0.23% · 15h0.23%15h0.04% · 16h0.04% · 16h0.04%16h-0.96% · 17h-0.96% · 17h-0.96%17h-0.08% · 18h-0.08% · 18h-0.08%18h0.25% · 19h0.25% · 19h0.25%19h0.01% · 20h0.01% · 20h0.01%20h0.13% · 21h0.13% · 21h0.13%21h-0.30% · 22h-0.30% · 22h-0.30%22h0.64% · 23h0.64% · 23h0.64%23h-1.28% · 00h-1.28% · 00h-1.28%00h▼ WORST-0.43% · 01h-0.43% · 01h-0.43%01h0.56% · 02h0.56% · 02h0.56%02h0.42% · 03h0.42% · 03h0.42%03h-0.85% · 04h-0.85% · 04h-0.85%04h-0.70% · 05h-0.70% · 05h-0.70%05h-0.37% · 06h-0.37% · 06h-0.37%06h0.80% · 07h0.80% · 07h0.80%07h★ BEST-0.33% · 08h-0.33% · 08h-0.33%08h0.46% · 09h0.46% · 09h0.46%09h-0.16% · 10h-0.16% · 10h-0.16%10h-0.48% · 11h-0.48% · 11h-0.48%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-0.28%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.80% · worst -1.28% · typical |Δ| 0.431%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.02%)FINAL-3.02%MAX DD-3.29%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9698 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9671, 1.0000]1.00000.9671break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.29% · moderate0%-3.29%▼ TROUGH -3.29%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.29%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.29%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9698 (-3.02%) · max DD -3.29% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-19.71 · σ=18.38UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -2.71 (+0.93σ vs μ)48.3624.180.00-24.18-48.36μ = -19.71-44.77-44.77-41.21-41.21-14.18-14.18-18.17-18.17-22.60-22.60-34.63-34.6331.0931.09-13.18-13.18-29.74-29.74-14.61-14.61-7.79-7.79-17.72-17.72-48.36-48.36-36.15-36.15-2.94-2.94-24.65-24.65-23.65-23.65-8.47-8.47-2.71-2.71v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -2.708 · range [-48.36, 31.09] · μ -19.707 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=54.1857 · σ=12.7829 · range [30.0386, 76.0917] · R²=0.301▲ RISING +13.44%σ EXTREME 23.59%LAST 48.671076.091764.578453.065141.551930.0386μ = 54.1857max 76.0917min 30.0386dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.30μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 48.67% · range [30.04%, 76.09%] · μ 54.19% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.144 · σ=0.226MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.512 (-1.62σ vs μ)0.5160.2580.000-0.258-0.516μ = -0.144-0.048-0.048-0.134-0.1340.0020.002-0.039-0.039-0.071-0.0710.0500.050-0.516-0.516-0.468-0.468-0.339-0.339-0.352-0.352-0.179-0.179-0.232-0.2320.1980.1980.1830.1830.1630.163-0.135-0.1350.0100.010-0.310-0.310-0.512-0.512v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.512 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.3779
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8278
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.6682
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1742
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4685
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5483
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9720
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8802
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0046
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3306
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1833
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.595 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.79e-5 · top T=4.00h (26.1%) · top-3 cover 60.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)8.7e-56.6e-54.4e-52.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.15e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.15e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.03e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.03e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.75e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.75e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.07e-5 · 24.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.07e-5 · 24.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.45e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.45e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.73e-5 · 26.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.73e-5 · 26.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.31e-5 · 9.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.31e-5 · 9.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.09e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.09e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.59e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.59e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.43e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.43e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.50e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.50e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.85e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.85e-5 · 8.5% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 26.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.352e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-39.61×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -15.30400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -15.30
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -22.07σ ann 56% · Sortino -18.52 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2648%-2105%-1562%-1019%-476%67%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)55.7%Ann. vol σ-2207.1%Sharpe (ann)-1852.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0510.0520.0530.0540.0550.056t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:08 UTC
Snapshot age
1.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:11 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a811575fe25a4361a2ed6e8fc18675ed59acf4a062bca3b930244d5eabeefcab · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,503HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.69

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$5.25K
bid $4.52K · ask $735
Depth within 10bp
$26.91K
bid $12.15K · ask $14.76K
Depth within 50bp
$71.07K
bid $34.38K · ask $36.69K
Mid price
0.053153
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.031
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.039
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sei/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0531713.32bp0.0531854FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0531886.66bp0.0531967FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.05321611.84bp0.05324520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0531372.97bp0.0531284FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0531215.93bp0.0531128FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.05309510.93bp0.05306320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-sei/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$11.05M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sei/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.031 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.75M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.05M
real volume
Net delta
$301.35K
sellers net
Imbalance
-3.07%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
3.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-sei/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.90% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.054026→0.0529981.903%3
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.054415→0.0534941.693%3
#32026-06-13 17:00:00Z2.0h0.054590→0.0540231.039%3

/api/asset/hl-sei/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
55.71%
σ per bar = 0.000243
Mean return (annualised)
-1229.63%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-22.07
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.18%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.05 over 1881 bars

/api/asset/hl-sei/risk · same metrics, JSON