Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

PUMP

PUMP-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-pump · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.99%
realized vol (ann.)
93.02%
max drawdown
1.49%
sharpe
26.04
ulcer index
0.60%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.49%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
4024.16
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.29%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.05
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1873.27
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.05
upside/downside
roll spread
3.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.99%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.99%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.5bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pump/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.002
24h Δ · live
-1.99%
24h vol · live
$3.7M
PUMP · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0015 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0015, 0.0016] · R²=0.649▼ FALLING -1.74%σ NORMAL 1.01%LAST 0.00150.00160.00160.00150.00150.0015μ = 0.0015max 0.0016min 0.0015dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,489,995,312 · μ=99599812.5 · σ=93038539.8 · CV=0.93BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11097,676,531195,353,062293,029,592390,706,123μ = 99599812390,706,12350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 390706123 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.3s
$mark $
$0.0015
$mid $
$0.0015
◉prev-day close
$0.0016
Δ24h Δ %
-1.991%
$24h vol $
$3.72M
◐open interest $
$21.28M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0015 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0015, 0.0016] · R²=0.649▼ FALLING -1.74%σ NORMAL 1.01%LAST 0.00150.00160.00160.00150.00150.0015μ = 0.0015max 0.0016min 0.0015dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0015 · 24h -1.99% · range $[0.0015, 0.0016]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0015, 0.0016] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=37%BEARISH -0.46%CLOSE 0.0015 vs OPEN 0.0015 (-0.46%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00150.00160.00160.00150.00150.0015μ close = 0.0015O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+1.30%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+1.30%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.58%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.58%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.06%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.06%)1.5%O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+1.49%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+1.49%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.32%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.32%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.96%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.96%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.84%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.84%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.26%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.26%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.07%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.07%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.07%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.07%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.78%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.78%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.65%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.65%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.20%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.20%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.20%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.20%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.19%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.19%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.26%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.26%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.20%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.20%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.98%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.98%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.001 C0.002 (+0.13%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.001 C0.002 (+0.13%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.26%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.26%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.46%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.46%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.07%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.07%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.26%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.26%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.86%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.86%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.26%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.26%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,489,995,312 · μ=99599812.5 · σ=93038539.8 · CV=0.93BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11097,676,531195,353,062293,029,592390,706,123μ = 9959981272,739,608 · 18.6% peak72,739,608 · 18.6% peak117,812,035 · 30.2% peak117,812,035 · 30.2% peak23,309,554 · 6.0% peak23,309,554 · 6.0% peak107,999,583 · 27.6% peak107,999,583 · 27.6% peak390,706,123390,706,123 · 100.0% peak390,706,123 · 100.0% peak260,300,301 · 66.6% peak260,300,301 · 66.6% peak117,355,383 · 30.0% peak117,355,383 · 30.0% peak22,892,507 · 5.9% peak22,892,507 · 5.9% peak77,371,559 · 19.8% peak77,371,559 · 19.8% peak28,042,652 · 7.2% peak28,042,652 · 7.2% peak31,699,613 · 8.1% peak31,699,613 · 8.1% peak70,007,069 · 17.9% peak70,007,069 · 17.9% peak48,860,695 · 12.5% peak48,860,695 · 12.5% peak63,641,382 · 16.3% peak63,641,382 · 16.3% peak24,772,834 · 6.3% peak24,772,834 · 6.3% peak25,157,749 · 6.4% peak25,157,749 · 6.4% peak52,877,069 · 13.5% peak52,877,069 · 13.5% peak235,427,512 · 60.3% peak235,427,512 · 60.3% peak240,469,443 · 61.5% peak240,469,443 · 61.5% peak53,589,869 · 13.7% peak53,589,869 · 13.7% peak129,594,081 · 33.2% peak129,594,081 · 33.2% peak77,464,953 · 19.8% peak77,464,953 · 19.8% peak41,751,218 · 10.7% peak41,751,218 · 10.7% peak159,956,391 · 40.9% peak159,956,391 · 40.9% peak16,196,129 · 4.1% peak16,196,129 · 4.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2489995312 · peak 390706123 · CV 0.93

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0006 · σ=0.0055 · skew=0.42 (symmetric) · kurt=0.23 (mesokurtic)54310 3-94.72bpbin -94.72bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -94.72bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-73.65bpbin -73.65bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -73.65bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-52.57bpbin -52.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -52.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-31.49bpbin -31.49bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -31.49bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-10.41bpbin -10.41bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -10.41bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 410.67bpbin 10.67bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 10.67bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 231.74bpbin 31.74bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 31.74bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 152.82bpbin 52.82bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 52.82bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 273.90bpbin 73.90bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 73.90bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak94.98bp116.06bp 1137.14bpbin 137.14bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 137.14bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.50 · kurt=0.55 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0015
Mid price
$0.0015
24h change
-1.99%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0016

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0015$95% CI: [0.0015$, 0.0015$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.01%
med MEDIAN0.0015$Q₁ 0.0015$ · Q₃ 0.0015$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0001$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0015$Q₁ 0.0015$med 0.0015$Q₃ 0.0015$max 0.0016$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.176approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.527mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.16
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.93
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-11.73
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.073030%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.125
σᵣ STD / h0.582826%σ²ᵣ = 0.340×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.98×
σ ANNUALISED54.55%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.583%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-11.73negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.89downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.54right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.99mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.01
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-639.74%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.00%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.001%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.047%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.041%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.89%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.001%VaR₉₉−1.047%ES₉₅−1.041%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK0.16$
−3.89% drawdown over 16h
0.15$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.05% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
44.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.448 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0016
Bollinger MA
$0.0015
Bollinger lower
$0.0015

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.003within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.216lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.763strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.517significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.763
H = 0.763STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.003k=2-0.216k=3-0.112k=4-0.068k=5-0.0340+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.52)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.53high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.52)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$3.72M
Open interest (USD)
$21.28M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.17x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.48% · worst -1.05% · typical |Δ| 0.44%MILD BEARISH -1.75%BEST+1.48%14hWORST-1.05%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.44%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.75%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.51%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.17% · Σ +1.37%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.61%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.75%+0.96%-3.00%-0.58% · 12h-0.58% · 12h-0.58%12h0.06% · 13h0.06% · 13h0.06%13h1.48% · 14h1.48% · 14h1.48%14h★ BEST-0.38% · 15h-0.38% · 15h-0.38%15h-1.03% · 16h-1.03% · 16h-1.03%16h-0.84% · 17h-0.84% · 17h-0.84%17h0.26% · 18h0.26% · 18h0.26%18h-0.07% · 19h-0.07% · 19h-0.07%19h-0.13% · 20h-0.13% · 20h-0.13%20h0.71% · 21h0.71% · 21h0.71%21h-0.71% · 22h-0.71% · 22h-0.71%22h0.20% · 23h0.20% · 23h0.20%23h0.19% · 00h0.19% · 00h0.19%00h-0.19% · 01h-0.19% · 01h-0.19%01h-0.33% · 02h-0.33% · 02h-0.33%02h-0.33% · 03h-0.33% · 03h-0.33%03h-1.05% · 04h-1.05% · 04h-1.05%04h▼ WORST0.07% · 05h0.07% · 05h0.07%05h-0.33% · 06h-0.33% · 06h-0.33%06h0.46% · 07h0.46% · 07h0.46%07h0.00% · 08h0.00% · 08h·08h0.26% · 09h0.26% · 09h0.26%09h0.72% · 10h0.72% · 10h0.72%10h-0.20% · 11h-0.20% · 11h-0.20%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.37%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 54% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 13 down · best 1.48% · worst -1.05% · typical |Δ| 0.441%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.78%)FINAL-1.78%MAX DD-3.91%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.95%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9822 · peak 1.0095 · range [0.9701, 1.0095]1.00950.9701break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0095UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.91% · moderate0%-3.91%▼ TROUGH -3.91%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.91%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.58%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.91%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9822 (-1.78%) · max DD -3.91% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-21.60 · σ=35.30UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 35.67 (+1.62σ vs μ)90.7945.390.00-45.39-90.79μ = -21.60-22.15-22.15-7.79-7.79-10.04-10.04-69.56-69.56-25.89-25.89-20.71-20.718.528.526.456.452.122.12-4.09-4.09-52.38-52.38-51.27-51.27-58.54-58.54-90.79-90.79-46.62-46.62-35.99-35.99-17.12-17.1249.8749.8735.6735.67v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 35.667 · range [-90.79, 49.87] · μ -21.596 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=50.9069 · σ=16.7150 · range [32.6408, 85.3755] · R²=0.538▼ FALLING -55.84%σ EXTREME 32.83%LAST 37.702485.375572.191859.008145.824532.6408μ = 50.9069max 85.3755min 32.6408dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 37.70% · range [32.64%, 85.38%] · μ 50.91% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.186 · σ=0.311MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.432 (-0.79σ vs μ)0.6550.3280.000-0.328-0.655μ = -0.1860.1770.1770.1230.1230.0620.0620.2390.2390.1710.171-0.434-0.434-0.655-0.655-0.629-0.629-0.649-0.649-0.483-0.483-0.054-0.0540.2710.271-0.197-0.197-0.433-0.433-0.213-0.213-0.082-0.082-0.162-0.162-0.149-0.149-0.432-0.432v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.432 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.1223
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3461
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.8767
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8667
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6690
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4529
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3023
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7624
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4093
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0731
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.3221
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7474
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.902 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.28e-5 · top T=4.00h (14.5%) · top-3 cover 42.4%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)5.7e-54.3e-52.9e-51.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 9.92e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.92e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.90e-5 · 12.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.90e-5 · 12.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.45e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.45e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.54e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.54e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.72e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.72e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.31e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.31e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.46e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.46e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.53e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.53e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.68e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.68e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.12e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.12e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.69e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.69e-6 · 1.7% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 14.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.940e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -2.37× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-2.37×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.4×2.8×4.2×5.5×6.9×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 0.01400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.000
annualized 0.01
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -207% · APY -92% · Sharpe -2.21σ ann 93% · Sortino -1.17 · n 4999
-266%-190%-115%-39%36%112%-206.6%APR (simple)-91.8%APY (compound)93.3%Ann. vol σ-221.3%Sharpe (ann)-116.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0010.0010.0020.0020.0020.002t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:08 UTC
Snapshot age
2.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:12 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c6ee267f574c3091076c3634ac6081c6f058ad8177463bead1413a1b519f8b3c · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,503HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.69

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$7.22K
bid $1.41K · ask $5.81K
Depth within 10bp
$44.82K
bid $13.49K · ask $31.33K
Depth within 50bp
$454.06K
bid $207.74K · ask $246.32K
Mid price
0.001527
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.001
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.202
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-pump/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0015273.28bp0.0015271FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0015276.02bp0.0015282FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00152915.49bp0.0015304FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0015263.28bp0.0015261FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0015258.91bp0.0015252FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00152319.74bp0.0015225FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-pump/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.49B

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-pump/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.216 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$947.64M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.47B
real volume
Net delta
$521.98M
sellers net
Imbalance
-21.59%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
21.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-pump/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.23% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z3.0h0.001569→0.0015342.231%4
#22026-06-14 02:00:00Z4.0h0.001541→0.0015082.141%5
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z1.0h0.001546→0.0015350.712%2

/api/asset/hl-pump/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
93.35%
σ per bar = 0.000407
Mean return (annualised)
-206.60%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-2.21
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.35%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 1370 bars

/api/asset/hl-pump/risk · same metrics, JSON