As of the latest market snapshot, the implied probability of "Yes" is 52.2%. This outcome resolves to Yes if Iran wins the Game.

HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #290

Iran

Primary · Yes

52.2¢

Counter · No

47.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · pred-iran-290 · fresh · feed 4s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

157.05%

max drawdown

1.99%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

1.09%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.63%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

1.99%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.06

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.06

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pred-iran-290/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.9s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

Yes mid · live

52.2¢

No mid · live

47.8¢

Yes · live 24h price

25 bars · close 52.22¢ · 24h -0.44%

Probability split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

Yes

52.2%52.2¢1.92×▬ +0.00pp

47.8%47.8¢2.09×▬ +0.00pp

primary vs counter implied %

Volume · per-hour contracts · live

Σ 2229 · peak 1167

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

3.9s

▲Yes mid

52.160¢

▼No mid

47.840¢

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

Σarb gap |1 − Σ|

0.00pp

Δ24h candles

25 bars

Δ24h close

52.22¢

Δ24h change

-0.44%

§1 · 24h time-series

Mid price · Yes (25 hourly observations)

range [51.40¢, 52.45¢] · span 1.05pp · MA(5) latest 52.04¢

Candlestick · open / high / low / close per hour

25 bars · last close 52.22¢

Hourly traded contracts

Σ vol = 2229 · peak 1167 · mean 89.2

§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁

Histogram of Δp

n=24 · positive 2 · negative 4

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.27)

μ MEAN52.17¢95% CI: [52.01¢, 52.33¢]

σ STD DEV0.40ppσ² = 0.164 · CV = 0.78%

med MEDIAN52.40¢Q₁ 52.22¢ · Q₃ 52.40¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.05pp · IQR 0.18pp (1.349σ→0.55pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁-1.271left-skewed

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.246mesokurtic · normal-like

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.56

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 3.07

range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.60

μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation · skew (G₁): >0 right-tail · kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI uses 1.96·SE around μ. σ × 1.349 ≈ IQR under normality.

§6 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE

ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.038within white-noise band

ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.112lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT1.178strongly persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.265significant @ α=0.05

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.178

H = 1.178STRONGLY PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=5

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.26)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.26)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§7 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

OUTCOME ID#290

SLUGiran-290

QUOTE TOKENUSDC

TWO-SIDED PRICINGBALANCED · ~50/50

PRIMARY · YES52.16¢implied prob 52.16% · decimal odds 1.92×

COUNTER · NO47.84¢implied prob 47.84% · decimal odds 2.09×

52.16¢

47.84¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYMODEST

24H VOLUME2.23k contracts

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWBALANCED · ~50/50|primary − counter| = 0.043 · entropy 0.999 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHMODEST100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Yes vs No · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (Yes)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

Yes1.92×(52¢)No2.09×(48¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%

K* full

0.00%

½K half

0.00%

¼K quarter

0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.999 bits (100% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.

§9 · Resolution criteria

This outcome resolves to Yes if Iran wins the Game.

§10 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

2 up bars · 4 down · best 0.89% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.100%

§11 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 0.9976 (-0.24%) · max DD -1.05% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§12 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest 32.520 · range [-38.21, 36.30] · μ -11.303 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

-0.1652

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.8688

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§14 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 20.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.877e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§15 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§16 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.043pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.56ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2495 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.043pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.21pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move7d

0.56pp

σ × √168

Terminal variancebinary

0.2495

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

52.2¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§17 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.07pp · ES₉₅ 0.09pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.01pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 5000

VaR 95%

0.07pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.09pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

2.1pp

peak 51.9¢ → trough 50.8¢

Median step

0.01pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§18 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

52.2%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.917

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-109

risk $109 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.92 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$91.72

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§19 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.999 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.999 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.94 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

1.06 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§20 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: https://hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 10:12:14 UTC
Snapshot age: 3.9s
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 10:12:18 UTC
History points: 25 closes · 25 counter-side closes
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: 3b257ebeaf3216c378af9524bc723c195504a3be1dd3c01e90672ddaa86cea1e · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.1¢HL PREDUruguay67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,484 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,674.9 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.52

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M

Realized vol (annualised)

193.12%

σ per bar = 0.000842

Mean return (annualised)

721.33%

μ per bar = 0.000001

Sharpe (rf=0)

3.74

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

2.09%

peak 0.52 → trough 0.51 over 2178 bars

/api/asset/hl-pred-iran-290/risk · same metrics, JSON