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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ORDI

ORDI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ordi · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.98%
realized vol (ann.)
80.72%
max drawdown
1.35%
sharpe
17.39
ulcer index
0.62%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.53%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
2280.82
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.11%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.03
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1266.06
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.03
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.98%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -3.98%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ordi/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$3.305
24h Δ · live
-3.98%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
ORDI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=3.3443 · σ=0.0428 · range [3.2823, 3.4181] · R²=0.801▼ FALLING -3.35%σ NORMAL 1.28%LAST 3.30363.41813.38413.35023.31633.2823μ = 3.3443max 3.4181min 3.2823dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $3.30
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=127,299 · μ=5092.0 · σ=5791.5 · CV=1.14BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1506,13212,26418,39724,529μ = 509224,528.8150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 24529 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.5s
$mark $
$3.305
$mid $
$3.3057
◉prev-day close
$3.442
Δ24h Δ %
-3.980%
$24h vol $
$416.38k
◐open interest $
$454.74k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=3.3443 · σ=0.0428 · range [3.2823, 3.4181] · R²=0.801▼ FALLING -3.35%σ NORMAL 1.28%LAST 3.30363.41813.38413.35023.31633.2823μ = 3.3443max 3.4181min 3.2823dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $3.3050 · 24h -3.98% · range $[3.2823, 3.4181]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [3.2316, 3.4609] · σ=0.0428 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=38%BEARISH -2.32%CLOSE 3.3036 vs OPEN 3.3821 (-2.32%)&#9660; CLOSE 3.30363.46093.40363.34623.28893.2316μ close = 3.3443O3.382 H3.451 L3.381 C3.418 (+1.06%)O3.382 H3.451 L3.381 C3.418 (+1.06%)O3.422 H3.437 L3.401 C3.401 (-0.61%)O3.422 H3.437 L3.401 C3.401 (-0.61%)O3.404 H3.408 L3.380 C3.391 (-0.40%)O3.404 H3.408 L3.380 C3.391 (-0.40%)O3.392 H3.409 L3.350 C3.372 (-0.57%)O3.392 H3.409 L3.350 C3.372 (-0.57%)O3.375 H3.413 L3.373 C3.385 (+0.30%)O3.375 H3.413 L3.373 C3.385 (+0.30%)O3.383 H3.461 L3.368 C3.401 (+0.54%)O3.383 H3.461 L3.368 C3.401 (+0.54%)O3.402 H3.430 L3.360 C3.384 (-0.53%)O3.402 H3.430 L3.360 C3.384 (-0.53%)O3.393 H3.400 L3.359 C3.365 (-0.83%)O3.393 H3.400 L3.359 C3.365 (-0.83%)O3.361 H3.401 L3.339 C3.385 (+0.71%)O3.361 H3.401 L3.339 C3.385 (+0.71%)O3.387 H3.391 L3.357 C3.366 (-0.62%)O3.387 H3.391 L3.357 C3.366 (-0.62%)O3.370 H3.397 L3.346 C3.387 (+0.52%)O3.370 H3.397 L3.346 C3.387 (+0.52%)O3.388 H3.425 L3.355 C3.355 (-0.98%)O3.388 H3.425 L3.355 C3.355 (-0.98%)O3.361 H3.365 L3.343 C3.354 (-0.22%)O3.361 H3.365 L3.343 C3.354 (-0.22%)-1.3%O3.352 H3.356 L3.305 C3.308 (-1.33%)O3.352 H3.356 L3.305 C3.308 (-1.33%)O3.310 H3.313 L3.232 C3.313 (+0.10%)O3.310 H3.313 L3.232 C3.313 (+0.10%)O3.306 H3.310 L3.266 C3.295 (-0.33%)O3.306 H3.310 L3.266 C3.295 (-0.33%)O3.305 H3.342 L3.305 C3.315 (+0.28%)O3.305 H3.342 L3.305 C3.315 (+0.28%)O3.315 H3.326 L3.272 C3.282 (-0.98%)O3.315 H3.326 L3.272 C3.282 (-0.98%)O3.284 H3.314 L3.260 C3.304 (+0.62%)O3.284 H3.314 L3.260 C3.304 (+0.62%)O3.306 H3.329 L3.290 C3.294 (-0.37%)O3.306 H3.329 L3.290 C3.294 (-0.37%)O3.291 H3.307 L3.281 C3.291 (-0.01%)O3.291 H3.307 L3.281 C3.291 (-0.01%)O3.290 H3.339 L3.284 C3.308 (+0.55%)O3.290 H3.339 L3.284 C3.308 (+0.55%)O3.312 H3.330 L3.294 C3.318 (+0.17%)O3.312 H3.330 L3.294 C3.318 (+0.17%)O3.321 H3.335 L3.310 C3.310 (-0.32%)O3.321 H3.335 L3.310 C3.310 (-0.32%)O3.310 H3.319 L3.304 C3.304 (-0.21%)O3.310 H3.319 L3.304 C3.304 (-0.21%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=127,299 · μ=5092.0 · σ=5791.5 · CV=1.14BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1506,13212,26418,39724,529μ = 50924,004.25 · 16.3% peak4,004.25 · 16.3% peak2,118.52 · 8.6% peak2,118.52 · 8.6% peak1,392.97 · 5.7% peak1,392.97 · 5.7% peak1,554.58 · 6.3% peak1,554.58 · 6.3% peak1,665.54 · 6.8% peak1,665.54 · 6.8% peak15,592.47 · 63.6% peak15,592.47 · 63.6% peak6,841.67 · 27.9% peak6,841.67 · 27.9% peak1,053.83 · 4.3% peak1,053.83 · 4.3% peak6,085.88 · 24.8% peak6,085.88 · 24.8% peak1,504.38 · 6.1% peak1,504.38 · 6.1% peak2,288.2 · 9.3% peak2,288.2 · 9.3% peak9,347.95 · 38.1% peak9,347.95 · 38.1% peak562.59 · 2.3% peak562.59 · 2.3% peak9,124.63 · 37.2% peak9,124.63 · 37.2% peak8,357.93 · 34.1% peak8,357.93 · 34.1% peak8,038.27 · 32.8% peak8,038.27 · 32.8% peak1,843.67 · 7.5% peak1,843.67 · 7.5% peak1,724.18 · 7.0% peak1,724.18 · 7.0% peak2,843.9 · 11.6% peak2,843.9 · 11.6% peak24,528.8124,528.81 · 100.0% peak24,528.81 · 100.0% peak1,450.22 · 5.9% peak1,450.22 · 5.9% peak12,782.88 · 52.1% peak12,782.88 · 52.1% peak1,482.26 · 6.0% peak1,482.26 · 6.0% peak787.21 · 3.2% peak787.21 · 3.2% peak322.23 · 1.3% peak322.23 · 1.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 127299 · peak 24529 · CV 1.14

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0015 · σ=0.0056 · skew=-0.21 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.01 (platykurtic (thin tails))54310 1-131.32bpbin -131.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -131.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-114.15bp 2-96.97bpbin -96.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -96.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-79.79bp 4-62.62bpbin -62.62bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -62.62bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 2-45.44bpbin -45.44bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -45.44bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-28.27bpbin -28.27bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -28.27bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 2-11.09bpbin -11.09bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -11.09bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 16.08bpbin 6.08bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 6.08bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 223.26bpbin 23.26bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 23.26bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 240.43bpbin 40.43bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 40.43bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 557.61bpbin 57.61bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 57.61bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.22 · kurt=-0.78 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$3.305
Mid price
$3.3057
24h change
-3.98%
Mark–mid spread
2.12 bps
Prev-day close
$3.442

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.63)
μ MEAN3.3443$95% CI: [3.3275$, 3.3611$]
σ STD DEV0.0428$σ² = 18.354×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.28%
med MEDIAN3.3541$Q₁ 3.3075$ · Q₃ 3.3853$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.1358$ · IQR 0.0778$ (1.349σ→0.0578$)
min 3.2823$Q₁ 3.3075$med 3.3541$Q₃ 3.3853$max 3.4181$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.108approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.630platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.23
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.74
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.17
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-23.02
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.141967%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.246
σᵣ STD / h0.577107%σ²ᵣ = 0.333×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.07×
σ ANNUALISED54.01%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.577%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-23.02negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-21.26downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.24approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.67mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.92
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1243.63%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.98%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.983%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.304%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.192%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.97%17h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.983%VaR₉₉−1.304%ES₉₅−1.192%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 17h duration
PEAK341.81$
−3.97% drawdown over 17h
328.23$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.33× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.14% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
37.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.314 · within band
Bollinger upper
$3.4082
Bollinger MA
$3.3319
Bollinger lower
$3.2556

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.474negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.396lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.054strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.632significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.054
H = 1.054STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..52 SIGNIFICANT LAGS · k=1,3
k=1 ★-0.474k=2+0.396k=3-0.424k=4+0.350k=5-0.3520+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.63)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.63)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$416.38k
Open interest (USD)
$454.74k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.92x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.66% · worst -1.40% · typical |Δ| 0.50%BEARISH SESSION -3.41%BEST+0.66%05hWORST-1.40%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.50%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.41%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.24% · Σ -1.91%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.57%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.93%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.41%+0.00%-4.05%-0.49% · 12h-0.49% · 12h-0.49%12h-0.31% · 13h-0.31% · 13h-0.31%13h-0.54% · 14h-0.54% · 14h-0.54%14h0.38% · 15h0.38% · 15h0.38%15h0.45% · 16h0.45% · 16h0.45%16h-0.50% · 17h-0.50% · 17h-0.50%17h-0.55% · 18h-0.55% · 18h-0.55%18h0.60% · 19h0.60% · 19h0.60%19h-0.56% · 20h-0.56% · 20h-0.56%20h0.62% · 21h0.62% · 21h0.62%21h-0.97% · 22h-0.97% · 22h-0.97%22h-0.02% · 23h-0.02% · 23h-0.02%23h-1.40% · 00h-1.40% · 00h-1.40%00h▼ WORST0.17% · 01h0.17% · 01h0.17%01h-0.54% · 02h-0.54% · 02h-0.54%02h0.59% · 03h0.59% · 03h0.59%03h-0.99% · 04h-0.99% · 04h-0.99%04h0.66% · 05h0.66% · 05h0.66%05h★ BEST-0.31% · 06h-0.31% · 06h-0.31%06h-0.10% · 07h-0.10% · 07h-0.10%07h0.54% · 08h0.54% · 08h0.54%08h0.27% · 09h0.27% · 09h0.27%09h-0.23% · 10h-0.23% · 10h-0.23%10h-0.19% · 11h-0.19% · 11h-0.19%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.57%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 0.66% · worst -1.40% · typical |Δ| 0.500%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.39%)FINAL-3.39%MAX DD-4.01%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9661 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9599, 1.0000]1.00000.9599break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.01% · moderate0%-4.01%▼ TROUGH -4.01%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.01%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.01%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9661 (-3.39%) · max DD -4.01% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-18.55 · σ=21.97UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -0.70 (+0.81σ vs μ)45.4922.740.00-22.74-45.49μ = -18.55-34.10-34.10-35.46-35.46-4.54-4.54-5.03-5.031.531.53-31.61-31.61-20.83-20.83-32.37-32.37-44.51-44.51-44.14-44.14-45.29-45.29-45.49-45.49-27.37-27.37-9.80-9.80-16.40-16.409.639.632.152.1531.9031.90-0.70-0.70v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.704 · range [-45.49, 31.90] · μ -18.549 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=59.0761 · σ=13.1341 · range [31.3654, 80.1238] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -27.37%σ EXTREME 22.23%LAST 31.365480.123867.934255.744643.555031.3654μ = 59.0761max 80.1238min 31.3654dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 31.37% · range [31.37%, 80.12%] · μ 59.08% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.451 · σ=0.309MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.193 (+2.09σ vs μ)0.8730.4370.000-0.437-0.873μ = -0.4510.0270.0270.1040.104-0.207-0.207-0.282-0.282-0.526-0.526-0.612-0.612-0.767-0.767-0.460-0.460-0.668-0.668-0.632-0.632-0.495-0.495-0.629-0.629-0.584-0.584-0.873-0.873-0.840-0.840-0.666-0.666-0.395-0.395-0.259-0.2590.1930.193v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.193 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6846
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7101
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
23.7737
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0003
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6323
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4703
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2282
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2194
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8378
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0058
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0826
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2790
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.671 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.24e-5 · top T=2.00h (49.6%) · top-3 cover 73.1%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.5e-41.9e-41.3e-46.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.50e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.50e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.27e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.27e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.51e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.51e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.23e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.23e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.40e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.40e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.50e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.50e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.08e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.08e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.61e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.61e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.66e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.66e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.59e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.59e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.77e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.77e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.52e-4 · 49.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.52e-4 · 49.6% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 49.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.092e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -3.43× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-3.43×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -2.90400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.001
annualized -2.90
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -207% · APY -91% · Sharpe -2.66σ ann 78% · Sortino -2.47 · n 4999
-320%-237%-155%-72%11%93%-206.7%APR (simple)-90.6%APY (compound)77.6%Ann. vol σ-266.4%Sharpe (ann)-247.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
3.1343.2023.2713.3393.4073.476t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:15 UTC
Snapshot age
5.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:20 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
dd206231bc6dbfaefe2dc241a11d58fdbe2242e3502e1c8e3b6f1e7fab7546d6 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$4.51K
bid $1.26K · ask $3.25K
Depth within 50bp
$71.56K
bid $21.92K · ask $49.64K
Mid price
3.305750
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
13.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.053
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.159
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ordi/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K3.30796.50bp3.30791FILLED
BUY$10.00K3.310313.77bp3.31239FILLED
BUY$100.00K3.314526.50bp3.319620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K3.30366.62bp3.30352FILLED
SELL$10.00K3.300117.02bp3.297511FILLED
SELL$100.00K3.291044.51bp3.281920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ordi/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$3.0000–$4.0000★25$127.30K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ordi/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.141 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$52.94K
real volume
Sell weight
$70.35K
real volume
Net delta
$17.41K
sellers net
Imbalance
-14.12%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
14.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ordi/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.72% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h3.3874→3.29522.722%5
#22026-06-13 13:00:00Z1.0h3.4181→3.37241.337%2
#32026-06-13 18:00:00Z0ms3.4007→3.36511.047%1

/api/asset/hl-ordi/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
77.58%
σ per bar = 0.000338
Mean return (annualised)
-206.65%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-2.66
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.29%
peak 3.34 → trough 3.26 over 1243 bars

/api/asset/hl-ordi/risk · same metrics, JSON