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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

NIL

NIL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-nil · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 3.27%
realized vol (ann.)
189.43%
max drawdown
2.64%
sharpe
34.83
ulcer index
1.59%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.36%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
4157.09
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.51%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.08
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2626.33
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.08
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
3.27%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change +3.27%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-nil/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.041
24h Δ · live
3.27%
24h vol · live
$1.6M
NIL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0395 · σ=0.0008 · range [0.0384, 0.0411] · R²=0.033▲ RISING +3.70%σ NORMAL 2.03%LAST 0.04070.04110.04040.03980.03910.0384μ = 0.0395max 0.0411min 0.0384dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=40,575,682 · μ=1623027.3 · σ=2251047.2 · CV=1.39BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=602,630,0785,260,1557,890,23310,520,310μ = 162302710,520,31050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 10520310 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.1s
$mark $
$0.0407
$mid $
$0.0407
◉prev-day close
$0.0394
Δ24h Δ %
+3.268%
$24h vol $
$1.57M
◐open interest $
$839.00k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0395 · σ=0.0008 · range [0.0384, 0.0411] · R²=0.033▲ RISING +3.70%σ NORMAL 2.03%LAST 0.04070.04110.04040.03980.03910.0384μ = 0.0395max 0.0411min 0.0384dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0407 · 24h 3.27% · range $[0.0384, 0.0411]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0381, 0.0424] · σ=0.0008 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=51%BULLISH +6.79%CLOSE 0.0407 vs OPEN 0.0381 (+6.79%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.04070.04240.04130.04030.03920.0381μ close = 0.0395O0.038 H0.041 L0.038 C0.039 (+2.98%)O0.038 H0.041 L0.038 C0.039 (+2.98%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.39%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.39%)4.7%O0.039 H0.042 L0.039 C0.041 (+4.72%)O0.039 H0.042 L0.039 C0.041 (+4.72%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-2.41%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-2.41%)O0.040 H0.042 L0.040 C0.041 (+3.18%)O0.040 H0.042 L0.040 C0.041 (+3.18%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (-1.46%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (-1.46%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-1.33%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-1.33%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-2.08%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-2.08%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.36%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.36%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.71%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.71%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.13%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.13%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.86%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.86%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.62%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.62%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.46%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.46%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.46%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.46%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.24%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.24%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+1.48%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+1.48%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.97%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.97%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+0.82%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+0.82%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-2.36%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-2.36%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+2.17%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+2.17%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-1.83%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-1.83%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.38%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.38%)O0.039 H0.041 L0.039 C0.040 (+3.73%)O0.039 H0.041 L0.039 C0.040 (+3.73%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (+0.68%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (+0.68%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=40,575,682 · μ=1623027.3 · σ=2251047.2 · CV=1.39BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=602,630,0785,260,1557,890,23310,520,310μ = 16230271,903,680 · 18.1% peak1,903,680 · 18.1% peak454,928 · 4.3% peak454,928 · 4.3% peak10,520,31010,520,310 · 100.0% peak10,520,310 · 100.0% peak729,069 · 6.9% peak729,069 · 6.9% peak6,150,931 · 58.5% peak6,150,931 · 58.5% peak1,020,119 · 9.7% peak1,020,119 · 9.7% peak2,878,328 · 27.4% peak2,878,328 · 27.4% peak3,086,856 · 29.3% peak3,086,856 · 29.3% peak1,313,933 · 12.5% peak1,313,933 · 12.5% peak948,902 · 9.0% peak948,902 · 9.0% peak809,815 · 7.7% peak809,815 · 7.7% peak1,281,423 · 12.2% peak1,281,423 · 12.2% peak260,176 · 2.5% peak260,176 · 2.5% peak842,132 · 8.0% peak842,132 · 8.0% peak233,941 · 2.2% peak233,941 · 2.2% peak327,920 · 3.1% peak327,920 · 3.1% peak1,518,549 · 14.4% peak1,518,549 · 14.4% peak415,518 · 3.9% peak415,518 · 3.9% peak336,766 · 3.2% peak336,766 · 3.2% peak1,314,673 · 12.5% peak1,314,673 · 12.5% peak335,888 · 3.2% peak335,888 · 3.2% peak1,425,333 · 13.5% peak1,425,333 · 13.5% peak664,229 · 6.3% peak664,229 · 6.3% peak1,721,858 · 16.4% peak1,721,858 · 16.4% peak80,405 · 0.8% peak80,405 · 0.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 40575682 · peak 10520310 · CV 1.39

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0017 · σ=0.0175 · skew=0.64 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.29 (mesokurtic)65320 3-228.15bpbin -228.15bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -228.15bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1-171.54bpbin -171.54bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -171.54bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-114.93bpbin -114.93bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -114.93bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 6-58.33bpbin -58.33bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -58.33bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 3-1.72bpbin -1.72bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -1.72bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 154.89bpbin 54.89bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 54.89bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3111.50bpbin 111.50bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 111.50bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1168.11bpbin 168.11bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 168.11bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1224.71bpbin 224.71bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 224.71bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1281.32bpbin 281.32bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 281.32bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak337.93bp 2394.54bpbin 394.54bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 394.54bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.61 · kurt=-0.10 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0407
Mid price
$0.0407
24h change
+3.27%
Mark–mid spread
5.66 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0394

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.69)
μ MEAN0.0395$95% CI: [0.0391$, 0.0398$]
σ STD DEV0.0008$σ² = 0.006×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.03%
med MEDIAN0.0392$Q₁ 0.0389$ · Q₃ 0.0400$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0027$ · IQR 0.0011$ (1.349σ→0.0011$)
min 0.0384$Q₁ 0.0389$med 0.0392$Q₃ 0.0400$max 0.0411$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.687right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.856mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.94
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.33
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=7.99
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.151388%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.085
σᵣ STD / h1.773816%σ²ᵣ = 3.146×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.72×
σ ANNUALISED166.02%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.774%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)7.99excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)10.32strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.65right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.17mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.29
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1326.16%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.20%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.197%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.480%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.381%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.48%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.197%VaR₉₉−2.480%ES₉₅−2.381%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK4.11$
−6.48% drawdown over 11h
3.84$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.93% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
59.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
1.009 · above upper band
Bollinger upper
$0.0407
Bollinger MA
$0.0393
Bollinger lower
$0.0379

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.292within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.178lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.610persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.886fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.610
H = 0.610PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.292k=2+0.178k=3-0.050k=4-0.055k=5-0.1640+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.89)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.51high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.89)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.57M
Open interest (USD)
$839.00k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.88x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
4.811× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
2.406× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.203×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.23% · worst -2.56% · typical |Δ| 1.35%MILD BULLISH +3.63%BEST+4.23%13hWORST-2.56%14hTYPICAL |Δ|1.35%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+3.63%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.29% · Σ +2.35%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.86% · Σ +6.90%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.70% · Σ -5.61%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +3.63%+4.62%-2.08%0.24% · 12h0.24% · 12h0.24%12h4.23% · 13h4.23% · 13h4.23%13h★ BEST-2.56% · 14h-2.56% · 14h-2.56%14h▼ WORST2.72% · 15h2.72% · 15h2.72%15h-1.28% · 16h-1.28% · 16h-1.28%16h-1.27% · 17h-1.27% · 17h-1.27%17h-2.19% · 18h-2.19% · 18h-2.19%18h-0.33% · 19h-0.33% · 19h-0.33%19h-0.68% · 20h-0.68% · 20h-0.68%20h0.05% · 21h0.05% · 21h0.05%21h-0.50% · 22h-0.50% · 22h-0.50%22h0.59% · 23h0.59% · 23h0.59%23h-0.46% · 00h-0.46% · 00h-0.46%00h-0.39% · 01h-0.39% · 01h-0.39%01h-0.23% · 02h-0.23% · 02h-0.23%02h1.42% · 03h1.42% · 03h1.42%03h1.17% · 04h1.17% · 04h1.17%04h1.00% · 05h1.00% · 05h1.00%05h-2.20% · 06h-2.20% · 06h-2.20%06h2.04% · 07h2.04% · 07h2.04%07h-1.91% · 08h-1.91% · 08h-1.91%08h-0.35% · 09h-0.35% · 09h-0.35%09h3.67% · 10h3.67% · 10h3.67%10h0.88% · 11h0.88% · 11h0.88%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+6.90%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 4.23% · worst -2.56% · typical |Δ| 1.349%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +3.33%FINAL+3.33%MAX DD-6.53%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.57%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0333 · peak 1.0457 · range [0.9774, 1.0457]1.04570.9774break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0457UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.53% · significant0%-6.53%▼ TROUGH -6.53%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -6.53%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.56%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.53%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0333 (3.33%) · max DD -6.53% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-14.02 · σ=43.27MIXED EDGELAST 14.44 (+0.66σ vs μ)111.1655.580.00-55.58-111.16μ = -14.0212.3312.33-2.00-2.00-40.40-40.40-27.91-27.91-111.16-111.16-96.01-96.01-50.80-50.80-44.40-44.40-45.89-45.89-35.00-35.008.558.5539.5139.5145.0345.038.808.8032.5832.5812.9812.98-2.23-2.2315.2415.2414.4414.44v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 14.443 · range [-111.16, 45.03] · μ -14.018 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=130.3924 · σ=71.1427 · range [39.2122, 264.2753] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -12.69%σ EXTREME 54.56%LAST 214.3987264.2753208.0096151.743895.478039.2122μ = 130.3924max 264.2753min 39.2122dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 214.40% · range [39.21%, 264.28%] · μ 130.39% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.241 · σ=0.319MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.271 (-0.10σ vs μ)0.5800.2900.000-0.290-0.580μ = -0.241-0.576-0.576-0.427-0.427-0.423-0.423-0.065-0.0650.0520.0520.1290.129-0.091-0.091-0.520-0.520-0.519-0.519-0.535-0.535-0.201-0.2010.3180.3180.4740.474-0.006-0.006-0.444-0.444-0.500-0.500-0.580-0.580-0.396-0.396-0.271-0.271v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.271 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.7376
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4195
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.2691
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5130
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0227
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2864
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9720
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2108
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3379
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3208
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1866
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.598 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.55e-4 · top T=2.00h (30.1%) · top-3 cover 62.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.3e-39.6e-46.4e-43.2e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.16e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.16e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.53e-4 · 8.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.53e-4 · 8.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.18e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.18e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.16e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.16e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.71e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.71e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.28e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.28e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.15e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.15e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.49e-4 · 12.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.49e-4 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.34e-4 · 19.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.34e-4 · 19.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.66e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.66e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.21e-4 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.21e-4 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.28e-3 · 30.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.28e-3 · 30.1% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 30.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.259e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.008%/barparametric μ/σ² 27.09× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
27.09×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.003% · annualized Sharpe 41.32400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.018
annualized 41.32
μ per barafter L
0.004%
σ per barafter L
0.20%
VaR 95%5%
0.24%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.41%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.5%
0.90×0.96×1.01×1.07×1.12×1.18×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 40.41σ ann 149% · Sortino 39.28 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%970%1940%2910%3880%4850%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)149.2%Ann. vol σ4041.5%Sharpe (ann)3928.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0370.0380.0390.0400.0410.042t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:08 UTC
Snapshot age
5.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:14 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
80bea554d9637977c1f0f7d90a02804e249ca715dbc5fdd61c2595bf1ed4cfb9 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,503HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.69

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$46
bid $21 · ask $25
Depth within 10bp
$2.13K
bid $1.87K · ask $267
Depth within 50bp
$42.76K
bid $31.41K · ask $11.35K
Mid price
0.040764
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.307
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.805
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-nil/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.04083417.19bp0.0408575FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.04088629.90bp0.04092814FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.04093140.94bp0.04101620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0407337.53bp0.0407332FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.04070115.47bp0.0406925FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.04064529.19bp0.04054120PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-nil/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$40.58M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-nil/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.169 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$22.61M
real volume
Sell weight
$16.07M
real volume
Net delta
$6.54M
buyers net
Imbalance
16.91%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
16.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-nil/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 6.02% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z6.0h0.041098→0.0386256.017%7
#22026-06-13 14:00:00Z0ms0.041036→0.0399972.532%1
#32026-06-14 08:00:00Z1.0h0.039840→0.0388862.395%2

/api/asset/hl-nil/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
149.17%
σ per bar = 0.000651
Mean return (annualised)
6028.79%
μ per bar = 0.000011
Sharpe (rf=0)
40.41
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.64%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 2369 bars

/api/asset/hl-nil/risk · same metrics, JSON