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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MORPHO

MORPHO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-morpho · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.46%
realized vol (ann.)
42.46%
max drawdown
1.06%
sharpe
-19.36
ulcer index
0.59%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.54%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1386.85
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.93%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.96
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-881.69
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.96
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.46%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
6.10%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 13.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-morpho/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.948
24h Δ · live
-0.46%
24h vol · live
$0.7M
MORPHO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.9481 · σ=0.0072 · range [1.9327, 1.9595] · R²=0.002▼ FALLING -0.59%σ LOW 0.37%LAST 1.94751.95951.95281.94611.93941.9327μ = 1.9481max 1.9595min 1.9327dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.95
Funding direction · live
Long fee 46.7%Short fee 53.3%SHORT FEE53.3%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.997 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
46.7%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
53.3%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000696% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=380,483 · μ=15219.3 · σ=24017.7 · CV=1.58BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=5030,91061,82092,730123,640μ = 15219123,640.350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 123640 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.8s
$mark $
$1.9477
$mid $
$1.9482
◉prev-day close
$1.9567
Δ24h Δ %
-0.460%
$24h vol $
$678.10k
◐open interest $
$4.23M
%funding (1h)
0.000696%
%funding (yr)
+6.10%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.9481 · σ=0.0072 · range [1.9327, 1.9595] · R²=0.002▼ FALLING -0.59%σ LOW 0.37%LAST 1.94751.95951.95281.94611.93941.9327μ = 1.9481max 1.9595min 1.9327dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.9477 · 24h -0.46% · range $[1.9327, 1.9595]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [1.9222, 1.9804] · σ=0.0072 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=42%BEARISH -0.42%CLOSE 1.9475 vs OPEN 1.9558 (-0.42%)&#9660; CLOSE 1.94751.98041.96581.95131.93671.9222μ close = 1.9481O1.956 H1.967 L1.953 C1.959 (+0.16%)O1.956 H1.967 L1.953 C1.959 (+0.16%)O1.958 H1.959 L1.942 C1.942 (-0.81%)O1.958 H1.959 L1.942 C1.942 (-0.81%)O1.942 H1.980 L1.938 C1.943 (+0.04%)O1.942 H1.980 L1.938 C1.943 (+0.04%)O1.943 H1.953 L1.936 C1.941 (-0.07%)O1.943 H1.953 L1.936 C1.941 (-0.07%)O1.942 H1.950 L1.933 C1.947 (+0.28%)O1.942 H1.950 L1.933 C1.947 (+0.28%)O1.946 H1.958 L1.934 C1.956 (+0.52%)O1.946 H1.958 L1.934 C1.956 (+0.52%)O1.954 H1.955 L1.944 C1.948 (-0.29%)O1.954 H1.955 L1.944 C1.948 (-0.29%)O1.948 H1.948 L1.922 C1.933 (-0.79%)O1.948 H1.948 L1.922 C1.933 (-0.79%)O1.933 H1.946 L1.927 C1.943 (+0.52%)O1.933 H1.946 L1.927 C1.943 (+0.52%)O1.942 H1.956 L1.942 C1.951 (+0.46%)O1.942 H1.956 L1.942 C1.951 (+0.46%)O1.952 H1.960 L1.941 C1.950 (-0.09%)O1.952 H1.960 L1.941 C1.950 (-0.09%)O1.954 H1.961 L1.950 C1.952 (-0.10%)O1.954 H1.961 L1.950 C1.952 (-0.10%)O1.954 H1.960 L1.951 C1.958 (+0.25%)O1.954 H1.960 L1.951 C1.958 (+0.25%)O1.958 H1.962 L1.954 C1.960 (+0.06%)O1.958 H1.962 L1.954 C1.960 (+0.06%)O1.960 H1.971 L1.946 C1.948 (-0.59%)O1.960 H1.971 L1.946 C1.948 (-0.59%)O1.948 H1.950 L1.939 C1.944 (-0.23%)O1.948 H1.950 L1.939 C1.944 (-0.23%)O1.944 H1.952 L1.936 C1.940 (-0.21%)O1.944 H1.952 L1.936 C1.940 (-0.21%)O1.939 H1.946 L1.934 C1.937 (-0.07%)O1.939 H1.946 L1.934 C1.937 (-0.07%)1.1%O1.938 H1.964 L1.938 C1.959 (+1.08%)O1.938 H1.964 L1.938 C1.959 (+1.08%)O1.957 H1.963 L1.949 C1.950 (-0.35%)O1.957 H1.963 L1.949 C1.950 (-0.35%)O1.950 H1.957 L1.946 C1.953 (+0.19%)O1.950 H1.957 L1.946 C1.953 (+0.19%)O1.955 H1.956 L1.941 C1.944 (-0.57%)O1.955 H1.956 L1.941 C1.944 (-0.57%)O1.942 H1.962 L1.941 C1.952 (+0.53%)O1.942 H1.962 L1.941 C1.952 (+0.53%)O1.952 H1.958 L1.939 C1.943 (-0.48%)O1.952 H1.958 L1.939 C1.943 (-0.48%)O1.944 H1.950 L1.944 C1.948 (+0.16%)O1.944 H1.950 L1.944 C1.948 (+0.16%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=380,483 · μ=15219.3 · σ=24017.7 · CV=1.58BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=5030,91061,82092,730123,640μ = 1521935,711.5 · 28.9% peak35,711.5 · 28.9% peak14,192.4 · 11.5% peak14,192.4 · 11.5% peak123,640.3123,640.3 · 100.0% peak123,640.3 · 100.0% peak10,960.2 · 8.9% peak10,960.2 · 8.9% peak8,750.1 · 7.1% peak8,750.1 · 7.1% peak6,843.3 · 5.5% peak6,843.3 · 5.5% peak2,709.6 · 2.2% peak2,709.6 · 2.2% peak9,156.4 · 7.4% peak9,156.4 · 7.4% peak7,245.7 · 5.9% peak7,245.7 · 5.9% peak8,289.8 · 6.7% peak8,289.8 · 6.7% peak8,290.2 · 6.7% peak8,290.2 · 6.7% peak3,550.9 · 2.9% peak3,550.9 · 2.9% peak2,712.5 · 2.2% peak2,712.5 · 2.2% peak5,650 · 4.6% peak5,650 · 4.6% peak12,649.9 · 10.2% peak12,649.9 · 10.2% peak7,151.4 · 5.8% peak7,151.4 · 5.8% peak3,372.4 · 2.7% peak3,372.4 · 2.7% peak19,663.4 · 15.9% peak19,663.4 · 15.9% peak10,472.9 · 8.5% peak10,472.9 · 8.5% peak6,586.9 · 5.3% peak6,586.9 · 5.3% peak3,305.4 · 2.7% peak3,305.4 · 2.7% peak13,287.8 · 10.7% peak13,287.8 · 10.7% peak29,299 · 23.7% peak29,299 · 23.7% peak21,320.1 · 17.2% peak21,320.1 · 17.2% peak5,671 · 4.6% peak5,671 · 4.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 380483 · peak 123640 · CV 1.58

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0046 · skew=0.22 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.60 (mesokurtic)43210 2-78.95bpbin -78.95bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -78.95bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-62.53bpbin -62.53bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -62.53bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 4-46.11bpbin -46.11bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -46.11bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 2-29.69bpbin -29.69bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -29.69bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-13.28bpbin -13.28bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -13.28bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 33.14bpbin 3.14bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 3.14bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 219.56bpbin 19.56bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 19.56bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 335.98bpbin 35.98bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 35.98bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 352.39bpbin 52.39bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 52.39bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak68.81bp85.23bp 1101.65bpbin 101.65bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 101.65bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.21 · kurt=-0.19 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.9477
Mid price
$1.9482
24h change
-0.46%
Mark–mid spread
2.57 bps
Prev-day close
$1.9567

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1.9481$95% CI: [1.9453$, 1.9509$]
σ STD DEV0.0072$σ² = 0.514×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.37%
med MEDIAN1.9478$Q₁ 1.9432$ · Q₃ 1.9525$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0268$ · IQR 0.0093$ (1.349σ→0.0097$)
min 1.9327$Q₁ 1.9432$med 1.9478$Q₃ 1.9525$max 1.9595$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.069approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.852mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.04
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.74
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-4.92
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.024532%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.053
σᵣ STD / h0.466627%σ²ᵣ = 0.218×10⁻⁴ · CV = 19.02×
σ ANNUALISED43.67%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.467%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-4.92negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-4.89downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.22approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.06mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.99
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-214.90%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.75%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.746%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.850%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.825%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.34%7h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.746%VaR₉₉−0.850%ES₉₅−0.825%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 7h duration
PEAK195.90$
−1.34% drawdown over 7h
193.27$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.36% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.466 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.9630
Bollinger MA
$1.9485
Bollinger lower
$1.9340

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.213within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.096lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.657persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.217fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.657
H = 0.657PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.213k=2-0.096k=3-0.257k=4+0.065k=5-0.0920+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.22)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.53high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.22)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$678.10k
Open interest (USD)
$4.23M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.16x
1h funding
0.000696%
Funding (annualised)
+6.10%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.10% · worst -0.87% · typical |Δ| 0.37%MILD BEARISH -0.59%BEST+1.10%05hWORST-0.87%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.37%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.59%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.26%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.90%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.57%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.59%+0.03%-1.35%-0.87% · 12h-0.87% · 12h-0.87%12h▼ WORST0.04% · 13h0.04% · 13h0.04%13h-0.07% · 14h-0.07% · 14h-0.07%14h0.30% · 15h0.30% · 15h0.30%15h0.45% · 16h0.45% · 16h0.45%16h-0.43% · 17h-0.43% · 17h-0.43%17h-0.78% · 18h-0.78% · 18h-0.78%18h0.55% · 19h0.55% · 19h0.55%19h0.42% · 20h0.42% · 20h0.42%20h-0.08% · 21h-0.08% · 21h-0.08%21h0.11% · 22h0.11% · 22h0.11%22h0.33% · 23h0.33% · 23h0.33%23h0.06% · 00h0.06% · 00h0.06%00h-0.56% · 01h-0.56% · 01h-0.56%01h-0.23% · 02h-0.23% · 02h-0.23%02h-0.24% · 03h-0.24% · 03h-0.24%03h-0.11% · 04h-0.11% · 04h-0.11%04h1.10% · 05h1.10% · 05h1.10%05h★ BEST-0.42% · 06h-0.42% · 06h-0.42%06h0.15% · 07h0.15% · 07h0.15%07h-0.49% · 08h-0.49% · 08h-0.49%08h0.45% · 09h0.45% · 09h0.45%09h-0.48% · 10h-0.48% · 10h-0.48%10h0.22% · 11h0.22% · 11h0.22%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.57%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.10% · worst -0.87% · typical |Δ| 0.372%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.61%)FINAL-0.61%MAX DD-1.35%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.01%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9939 · peak 1.0001 · range [0.9865, 1.0001]1.00010.9865break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0001UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.35% · moderate0%-1.35%▼ TROUGH -1.35%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.35%bar 2-13 · 12 bars · recovered#2 -1.14%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.35%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9939 (-0.61%) · max DD -1.35% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=0.58 · σ=26.75MIXED EDGELAST -21.43 (-0.82σ vs μ)89.5044.750.00-44.75-89.50μ = 0.58-18.35-18.35-16.34-16.340.760.7614.5814.583.703.70-6.65-6.6517.5917.5989.5089.5011.9311.93-18.94-18.94-26.06-26.06-38.75-38.750.420.42-12.14-12.146.966.96-0.55-0.5517.3917.397.377.37-21.43-21.43v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -21.430 · range [-38.75, 89.50] · μ 0.579 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=44.5082 · σ=11.1963 · range [22.4662, 60.2014] · R²=0.038▼ FALLING -14.36%σ EXTREME 25.16%LAST 39.068660.201450.767641.333831.900022.4662μ = 44.5082max 60.2014min 22.4662dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 39.07% · range [22.47%, 60.20%] · μ 44.51% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.119 · σ=0.307CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.832 (-2.32σ vs μ)0.8320.4160.000-0.416-0.832μ = -0.119-0.047-0.0470.2530.253-0.122-0.1220.0580.058-0.060-0.0600.0730.073-0.262-0.2620.0300.030-0.066-0.0660.2800.2800.3190.3190.1260.1260.0330.033-0.195-0.195-0.388-0.388-0.406-0.406-0.557-0.557-0.497-0.497-0.832-0.832v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.832 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1994
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9051
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.8638
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5713
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-4.1345
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0012
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0594
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3095
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1904
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.602 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.40e-5 · top T=2.00h (26.3%) · top-3 cover 56.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.6e-55.7e-53.8e-51.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.90e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.90e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.13e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.13e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.45e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.45e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.61e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.61e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.62e-5 · 16.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.62e-5 · 16.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.85e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.85e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.44e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.44e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.96e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.96e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.96e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.96e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.16e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.16e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.03e-5 · 14.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.03e-5 · 14.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.57e-5 · 26.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.57e-5 · 26.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 26.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.883e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 9.61× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
9.61×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 2.40× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 3.81400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 2.40× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.002
annualized 3.81
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.05%
VaR 95%5%
0.06%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.11%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.07×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 189% · APY 501% · Sharpe 4.26σ ann 44% · Sortino 2.37 · n 4999
0%120%241%361%481%601%189.2%APR (simple)501.1%APY (compound)44.4%Ann. vol σ426.4%Sharpe (ann)237.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.8561.8941.9311.9692.0062.044t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:22:44 UTC
Snapshot age
2.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:22:48 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
663dc9337d14f48dea1856ec9f03e4f433addcdc6b04d29673865fe4acc04033 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,503HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.7

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$919
bid $610 · ask $309
Depth within 10bp
$7.52K
bid $4.01K · ask $3.51K
Depth within 50bp
$46.73K
bid $21.62K · ask $25.11K
Mid price
1.948200
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.073
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.182
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-morpho/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.94914.57bp1.94933FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.950411.11bp1.95119FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.952019.49bp1.954020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.94734.43bp1.94684FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.946011.33bp1.945111FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.944916.73bp1.942920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+6.964e-6
0.00070% / hr
Annualised APR
6.104%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
59.8d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
59.8d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-6.104%59.8d1.64y
SHORTRECEIVE6.104%59.8d1.64y

/api/asset/hl-morpho/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$380.48K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-morpho/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.250 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$215.43K
real volume
Sell weight
$129.34K
real volume
Net delta
$86.09K
buyers net
Imbalance
24.97%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
25.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-morpho/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.20% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 18:00:00Z1.0h1.9561→1.93271.196%2
#22026-06-14 01:00:00Z3.0h1.9595→1.93731.133%4
#32026-06-13 12:00:00Z2.0h1.9590→1.94140.898%3

/api/asset/hl-morpho/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
44.37%
σ per bar = 0.000193
Mean return (annualised)
189.21%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
4.26
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.26%
peak 1.96 → trough 1.94 over 3019 bars

/api/asset/hl-morpho/risk · same metrics, JSON