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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MON

MON-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-mon · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.86%
realized vol (ann.)
41.11%
max drawdown
0.75%
sharpe
43.59
ulcer index
0.30%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.22%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
6002.44
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.68%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.09
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2641.15
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.09
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.86%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-mon/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.021
24h Δ · live
-0.86%
24h vol · live
$0.7M
MON · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0216 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0213, 0.0220] · R²=0.003▼ FALLING -0.32%σ LOW 0.89%LAST 0.02150.02200.02180.02170.02150.0213μ = 0.0216max 0.0220min 0.0213dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=35,666,469 · μ=1426658.8 · σ=1251085.0 · CV=0.88BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1201,277,4872,554,9753,832,4625,109,949μ = 14266595,109,94950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 5109949 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.8s
$mark $
$0.0215
$mid $
$0.0215
◉prev-day close
$0.0217
Δ24h Δ %
-0.863%
$24h vol $
$746.18k
◐open interest $
$26.21M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0216 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0213, 0.0220] · R²=0.003▼ FALLING -0.32%σ LOW 0.89%LAST 0.02150.02200.02180.02170.02150.0213μ = 0.0216max 0.0220min 0.0213dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0215 · 24h -0.86% · range $[0.0213, 0.0220]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0213, 0.0222] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=47%BEARISH -0.54%CLOSE 0.0215 vs OPEN 0.0216 (-0.54%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.02150.02220.02200.02170.02150.0213μ close = 0.0216O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.22%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.22%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (-0.08%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (-0.08%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.52%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.52%)O0.021 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (+0.37%)O0.021 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (+0.37%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (+0.39%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (+0.39%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.021 (-1.11%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.021 (-1.11%)1.3%O0.021 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (+1.34%)O0.021 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (+1.34%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (-0.42%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (-0.42%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (+0.36%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (+0.36%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.32%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.32%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (+0.63%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (+0.63%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (+0.80%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (+0.80%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.28%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.28%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (+0.96%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (+0.96%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.55%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.55%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.03%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.03%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.16%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.16%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.97%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.022 C0.022 (-0.97%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (-0.24%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.022 (-0.24%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.96%)O0.022 H0.022 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.96%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.34%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.34%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.11%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.11%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.24%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.24%)O0.021 H0.022 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.11%)O0.021 H0.022 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.11%)O0.021 H0.022 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.18%)O0.021 H0.022 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.18%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=35,666,469 · μ=1426658.8 · σ=1251085.0 · CV=0.88BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1201,277,4872,554,9753,832,4625,109,949μ = 14266591,267,197 · 24.8% peak1,267,197 · 24.8% peak4,027,912 · 78.8% peak4,027,912 · 78.8% peak1,936,709 · 37.9% peak1,936,709 · 37.9% peak328,183 · 6.4% peak328,183 · 6.4% peak1,471,964 · 28.8% peak1,471,964 · 28.8% peak1,155,837 · 22.6% peak1,155,837 · 22.6% peak5,109,9495,109,949 · 100.0% peak5,109,949 · 100.0% peak654,993 · 12.8% peak654,993 · 12.8% peak619,056 · 12.1% peak619,056 · 12.1% peak706,451 · 13.8% peak706,451 · 13.8% peak421,291 · 8.2% peak421,291 · 8.2% peak840,129 · 16.4% peak840,129 · 16.4% peak1,144,031 · 22.4% peak1,144,031 · 22.4% peak1,014,685 · 19.9% peak1,014,685 · 19.9% peak1,354,579 · 26.5% peak1,354,579 · 26.5% peak486,271 · 9.5% peak486,271 · 9.5% peak1,296,418 · 25.4% peak1,296,418 · 25.4% peak318,776 · 6.2% peak318,776 · 6.2% peak1,515,872 · 29.7% peak1,515,872 · 29.7% peak3,156,784 · 61.8% peak3,156,784 · 61.8% peak3,528,187 · 69.0% peak3,528,187 · 69.0% peak389,830 · 7.6% peak389,830 · 7.6% peak992,227 · 19.4% peak992,227 · 19.4% peak1,689,545 · 33.1% peak1,689,545 · 33.1% peak239,593 · 4.7% peak239,593 · 4.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 35666469 · peak 5109949 · CV 0.88

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0058 · skew=0.12 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.46 (mesokurtic)43210 2-105.32bpbin -105.32bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -105.32bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-84.99bpbin -84.99bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -84.99bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-64.66bpbin -64.66bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -64.66bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-44.34bpbin -44.34bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -44.34bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-24.01bpbin -24.01bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -24.01bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 2-3.69bpbin -3.69bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -3.69bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 416.64bpbin 16.64bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 16.64bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 336.97bpbin 36.97bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 36.97bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 157.29bpbin 57.29bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 57.29bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 177.62bpbin 77.62bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 77.62bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 197.94bpbin 97.94bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 97.94bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1118.27bpbin 118.27bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 118.27bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.12 · kurt=-0.35 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0215
Mid price
$0.0215
24h change
-0.86%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0217

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.53)
μ MEAN0.0216$95% CI: [0.0215$, 0.0217$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.89%
med MEDIAN0.0216$Q₁ 0.0215$ · Q₃ 0.0217$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0007$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0213$Q₁ 0.0215$med 0.0216$Q₃ 0.0217$max 0.0220$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.528right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.863mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.22
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.12
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.54
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-2.03
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.013162%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.022
σᵣ STD / h0.607043%σ²ᵣ = 0.369×10⁻⁴ · CV = 46.12×
σ ANNUALISED56.82%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.607%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-2.03negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-2.16downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-37.43drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.13approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.14mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.06
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -37.43
EXPECTED EDGE-115.30%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.97%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.965%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.112%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.062%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.08%7h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.965%VaR₉₉−1.112%ES₉₅−1.062%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 7h duration
PEAK2.20$
−3.08% drawdown over 7h
2.13$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.18% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.345 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0220
Bollinger MA
$0.0216
Bollinger lower
$0.0212

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.291within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.299lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.884strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.241fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.884
H = 0.884STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.291k=2+0.299k=3+0.108k=4-0.184k=5+0.0970+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.24)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.24)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$746.18k
Open interest (USD)
$26.21M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.03x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-3.572× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-1.786× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.893×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.28% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 0.48%MILD BEARISH -0.32%BEST+1.28%17hWORST-1.15%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.48%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.32%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 4up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.27% · Σ -2.16%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.92%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.92%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.32%+2.07%-1.06%-0.07% · 12h-0.07% · 12h-0.07%12h-0.55% · 13h-0.55% · 13h-0.55%13h0.38% · 14h0.38% · 14h0.38%14h0.43% · 15h0.43% · 15h0.43%15h-1.15% · 16h-1.15% · 16h-1.15%16h▼ WORST1.28% · 17h1.28% · 17h1.28%17h★ BEST-0.41% · 18h-0.41% · 18h-0.41%18h0.37% · 19h0.37% · 19h0.37%19h-0.36% · 20h-0.36% · 20h-0.36%20h0.67% · 21h0.67% · 21h0.67%21h0.78% · 22h0.78% · 22h0.78%22h-0.26% · 23h-0.26% · 23h-0.26%23h0.97% · 00h0.97% · 00h0.97%00h-0.45% · 01h-0.45% · 01h-0.45%01h-0.04% · 02h-0.04% · 02h-0.04%02h-0.21% · 03h-0.21% · 03h-0.21%03h-0.97% · 04h-0.97% · 04h-0.97%04h-0.18% · 05h-0.18% · 05h-0.18%05h-0.94% · 06h-0.94% · 06h-0.94%06h-0.34% · 07h-0.34% · 07h-0.34%07h0.17% · 08h0.17% · 08h0.17%08h0.26% · 09h0.26% · 09h0.26%09h0.14% · 10h0.14% · 10h0.14%10h0.17% · 11h0.17% · 11h0.17%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.92%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 7BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.28% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 0.482%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.36%)FINAL-0.36%MAX DD-3.09%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.06%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↗ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9964 · peak 1.0206 · range [0.9891, 1.0206]1.02060.9891break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0206UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.09% · moderate0%-3.09%▼ TROUGH -3.09%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -3.09%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.15%bar 6-6 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.63%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.09%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9964 (-0.36%) · max DD -3.09% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-9.55 · σ=49.80MIXED EDGELAST -17.93 (-0.17σ vs μ)108.2654.130.00-54.13-108.26μ = -9.555.705.70-0.50-0.5016.7616.762.912.917.087.0854.4254.4222.8622.8661.1361.1332.7932.7943.5343.5320.7920.79-23.32-23.32-21.40-21.40-108.26-108.26-103.37-103.37-85.15-85.15-58.78-58.78-30.68-30.68-17.93-17.93v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -17.928 · range [-108.26, 61.13] · μ -9.548 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=58.4223 · σ=15.2243 · range [37.5840, 81.9733] · R²=0.752▼ FALLING -44.86%σ EXTREME 26.06%LAST 43.833281.973370.876059.778748.681337.5840μ = 58.4223max 81.9733min 37.5840dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.75μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 43.83% · range [37.58%, 81.97%] · μ 58.42% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.353 · σ=0.324MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.347 (+2.16σ vs μ)0.7770.3880.000-0.388-0.777μ = -0.353-0.538-0.538-0.673-0.673-0.729-0.729-0.777-0.777-0.678-0.678-0.355-0.355-0.286-0.286-0.477-0.477-0.549-0.549-0.399-0.399-0.514-0.514-0.210-0.210-0.144-0.144-0.367-0.367-0.433-0.433-0.354-0.3540.0740.0740.3560.3560.3470.347v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.347 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0899
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9561
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.5510
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2553
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6333
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4699
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1755
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3995
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4396
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6602
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.866 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.66e-5 · top T=2.40h (36.0%) · top-3 cover 57.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.6e-41.2e-47.9e-53.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.17e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.17e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.14e-5 · 11.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.14e-5 · 11.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.61e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.61e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.75e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.75e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.98e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.98e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.05e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.05e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.07e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.07e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.11e-5 · 9.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.11e-5 · 9.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.57e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.57e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.58e-4 · 36.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.58e-4 · 36.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.37e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.37e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.04e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.04e-5 · 6.9% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=12.00h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 36.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.390e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-109.30×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -38.15400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.017
annualized -38.15
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -45.01σ ann 41% · Sortino -28.74 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5401%-4311%-3221%-2131%-1041%49%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)41.2%Ann. vol σ-4500.8%Sharpe (ann)-2873.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0200.0210.0210.0220.0220.023t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:08 UTC
Snapshot age
1.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:10 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
89d3fc74e1a10e84845afbfcc4bfe6e804b66705f59877b2919f83b4ab5c86e7 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,503HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.69

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.64K
bid $653 · ask $1.99K
Depth within 10bp
$11.85K
bid $4.71K · ask $7.14K
Depth within 50bp
$63.21K
bid $38.21K · ask $25.00K
Mid price
0.021492
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.210
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.113
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-mon/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0214982.90bp0.0215002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0215087.65bp0.02151610FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.02151912.81bp0.02153320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0214833.75bp0.0214783FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0214738.77bp0.02146810FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.02146313.23bp0.02145020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-mon/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$35.67M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-mon/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.237 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$13.12M
real volume
Sell weight
$21.28M
real volume
Net delta
$8.17M
sellers net
Imbalance
-23.74%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
23.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-mon/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 3.08% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 03:00:00Z5.0h0.022012→0.0213343.080%6
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z0ms0.021600→0.0213521.148%1
#32026-06-13 13:00:00Z0ms0.021561→0.0214260.626%1

/api/asset/hl-mon/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
41.18%
σ per bar = 0.000180
Mean return (annualised)
-1853.41%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-45.01
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.02%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 3696 bars

/api/asset/hl-mon/risk · same metrics, JSON