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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MANTA

MANTA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-manta · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.95%
realized vol (ann.)
55.55%
max drawdown
1.34%
sharpe
-8.70
ulcer index
0.47%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.38%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1027.61
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.99%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-490.79
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.95%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
37.58%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 39%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 17.2bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-manta/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.081
24h Δ · live
-0.95%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
MANTA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0826 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0814, 0.0840] · R²=0.362▼ FALLING -1.77%σ LOW 0.76%LAST 0.08150.08400.08340.08270.08210.0814μ = 0.0826max 0.0840min 0.0814dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.08
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.4%Short fee 50.6%SHORT FEE50.6%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.4%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.6%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.004290% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=4,915,607 · μ=196624.3 · σ=181295.8 · CV=0.92BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=70200,492400,985601,477801,970μ = 196624801,969.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 801970 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.6s
$mark $
$0.0815
$mid $
$0.0815
◉prev-day close
$0.0823
Δ24h Δ %
-0.948%
$24h vol $
$383.03k
◐open interest $
$2.55M
%funding (1h)
0.004290%
%funding (yr)
+37.58%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0826 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0814, 0.0840] · R²=0.362▼ FALLING -1.77%σ LOW 0.76%LAST 0.08150.08400.08340.08270.08210.0814μ = 0.0826max 0.0840min 0.0814dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0815 · 24h -0.95% · range $[0.0814, 0.0840]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0812, 0.0851] · σ=0.0006 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=41%BEARISH -4.09%CLOSE 0.0815 vs OPEN 0.0849 (-4.09%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.08150.08510.08410.08310.08220.0812μ close = 0.0826-2.4%O0.085 H0.085 L0.082 C0.083 (-2.35%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.082 C0.083 (-2.35%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+1.13%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+1.13%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.082 C0.083 (-1.48%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.082 C0.083 (-1.48%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.19%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.19%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.06%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.06%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.13%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.13%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.85%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.85%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.01%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.01%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.45%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.45%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.40%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.40%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.23%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.23%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.36%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.36%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.22%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.22%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.04%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.04%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.67%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.67%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.14%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.14%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.11%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.11%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.77%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.77%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.04%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.04%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.32%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.32%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (-0.58%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (-0.58%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.081 (-0.20%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.081 (-0.20%)O0.081 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (+0.52%)O0.081 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (+0.52%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (+0.32%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (+0.32%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.081 (-0.97%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.081 (-0.97%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=4,915,607 · μ=196624.3 · σ=181295.8 · CV=0.92BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=70200,492400,985601,477801,970μ = 196624801,969.6801,969.6 · 100.0% peak801,969.6 · 100.0% peak309,753.7 · 38.6% peak309,753.7 · 38.6% peak376,924.5 · 47.0% peak376,924.5 · 47.0% peak422,971 · 52.7% peak422,971 · 52.7% peak219,620.7 · 27.4% peak219,620.7 · 27.4% peak309,029.4 · 38.5% peak309,029.4 · 38.5% peak241,037.6 · 30.1% peak241,037.6 · 30.1% peak43,817.2 · 5.5% peak43,817.2 · 5.5% peak31,579.1 · 3.9% peak31,579.1 · 3.9% peak50,631.8 · 6.3% peak50,631.8 · 6.3% peak86,602.3 · 10.8% peak86,602.3 · 10.8% peak115,605.5 · 14.4% peak115,605.5 · 14.4% peak124,101.4 · 15.5% peak124,101.4 · 15.5% peak153,094.4 · 19.1% peak153,094.4 · 19.1% peak335,178.7 · 41.8% peak335,178.7 · 41.8% peak58,353 · 7.3% peak58,353 · 7.3% peak255,178.7 · 31.8% peak255,178.7 · 31.8% peak195,364.6 · 24.4% peak195,364.6 · 24.4% peak44,990.8 · 5.6% peak44,990.8 · 5.6% peak432,570.3 · 53.9% peak432,570.3 · 53.9% peak53,732.3 · 6.7% peak53,732.3 · 6.7% peak82,589.3 · 10.3% peak82,589.3 · 10.3% peak71,288.5 · 8.9% peak71,288.5 · 8.9% peak62,869.8 · 7.8% peak62,869.8 · 7.8% peak36,752.4 · 4.6% peak36,752.4 · 4.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 4915607 · peak 801970 · CV 0.92

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0056 · skew=0.04 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.03 (mesokurtic)54310 1-136.09bpbin -136.09bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -136.09bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-113.21bp 1-90.33bpbin -90.33bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -90.33bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-67.46bpbin -67.46bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -67.46bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 4-44.58bpbin -44.58bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -44.58bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 4-21.70bpbin -21.70bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -21.70bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 51.18bpbin 1.18bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 1.18bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 124.06bpbin 24.06bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 24.06bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 346.94bpbin 46.94bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 46.94bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 269.81bpbin 69.81bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 69.81bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak92.69bp 1115.57bpbin 115.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 115.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.02 · kurt=0.38 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0815
Mid price
$0.0815
24h change
-0.95%
Mark–mid spread
3.68 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0823

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0826$95% CI: [0.0824$, 0.0829$]
σ STD DEV0.0006$σ² = 0.004×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.76%
med MEDIAN0.0826$Q₁ 0.0822$ · Q₃ 0.0831$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0025$ · IQR 0.0009$ (1.349σ→0.0008$)
min 0.0814$Q₁ 0.0822$med 0.0826$Q₃ 0.0831$max 0.0840$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.176approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.498mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.93
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.07
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-11.84
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.074520%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.127
σᵣ STD / h0.588856%σ²ᵣ = 0.347×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.90×
σ ANNUALISED55.11%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.589%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-11.84negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.97downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.02approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.78mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.01
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-652.79%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.85%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.853%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.336%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.172%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.04%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.853%VaR₉₉−1.336%ES₉₅−1.172%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 20h duration
PEAK8.40$
−3.04% drawdown over 20h
8.14$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.37× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.57× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.13% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.052 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0838
Bollinger MA
$0.0826
Bollinger lower
$0.0813

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.144within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.111lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.890strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.610significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.890
H = 0.890STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.144k=2-0.111k=3-0.078k=4-0.243k=5+0.0710+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.61)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.92very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.61)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$383.03k
Open interest (USD)
$2.55M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.15x
1h funding
0.004290%
Funding (annualised)
+37.58%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.27% · worst -1.48% · typical |Δ| 0.45%MILD BEARISH -1.79%BEST+1.27%12hWORST-1.48%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.45%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.79%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.11%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.84%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.16%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.79%+1.27%-1.81%1.27% · 12h1.27% · 12h1.27%12h★ BEST-1.48% · 13h-1.48% · 13h-1.48%13h▼ WORST-0.40% · 14h-0.40% · 14h-0.40%14h0.05% · 15h0.05% · 15h0.05%15h-0.29% · 16h-0.29% · 16h-0.29%16h0.79% · 17h0.79% · 17h0.79%17h-0.01% · 18h-0.01% · 18h-0.01%18h0.42% · 19h0.42% · 19h0.42%19h0.26% · 20h0.26% · 20h0.26%20h-0.29% · 21h-0.29% · 21h-0.29%21h-0.39% · 22h-0.39% · 22h-0.39%22h-0.34% · 23h-0.34% · 23h-0.34%23h-0.02% · 00h-0.02% · 00h-0.02%00h0.68% · 01h0.68% · 01h0.68%01h0.10% · 02h0.10% · 02h0.10%02h0.06% · 03h0.06% · 03h0.06%03h-0.77% · 04h-0.77% · 04h-0.77%04h-0.13% · 05h-0.13% · 05h-0.13%05h-0.43% · 06h-0.43% · 06h-0.43%06h-0.59% · 07h-0.59% · 07h-0.59%07h-0.31% · 08h-0.31% · 08h-0.31%08h0.50% · 09h0.50% · 09h0.50%09h0.39% · 10h0.39% · 10h0.39%10h-0.87% · 11h-0.87% · 11h-0.87%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.16%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.27% · worst -1.48% · typical |Δ| 0.451%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.81%)FINAL-1.81%MAX DD-3.06%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.27%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9819 · peak 1.0127 · range [0.9817, 1.0127]1.01270.9817break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0127UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.06% · moderate0%-3.06%▼ TROUGH -3.06%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.06%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.06%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9819 (-1.81%) · max DD -3.06% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-14.53 · σ=38.24UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -36.86 (-0.58σ vs μ)111.7655.880.00-55.88-111.76μ = -14.53-0.97-0.97-28.27-28.2719.4019.4050.5050.5032.3032.3027.5227.52-15.58-15.58-16.15-16.15-3.59-3.59-10.29-10.293.433.43-9.76-9.76-3.25-3.25-15.70-15.70-77.08-77.08-111.76-111.76-60.30-60.30-19.59-19.59-36.86-36.86v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -36.860 · range [-111.76, 50.50] · μ -14.527 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=43.4183 · σ=14.4401 · range [28.2455, 90.3164] · R²=0.153▼ FALLING -43.30%σ EXTREME 33.26%LAST 51.209490.316474.798659.280943.763228.2455μ = 43.4183max 90.3164min 28.2455dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.15μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 51.21% · range [28.25%, 90.32%] · μ 43.42% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=0.004 · σ=0.333CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.057 (+0.16σ vs μ)0.6120.3060.000-0.306-0.612μ = 0.004-0.337-0.3370.1090.109-0.338-0.338-0.526-0.526-0.491-0.4910.0640.0640.4680.4680.4150.4150.1610.1610.3660.3660.2560.2560.0470.0470.1030.1030.0940.094-0.143-0.143-0.612-0.612-0.065-0.0650.4480.4480.0570.057v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.057 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6043
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7392
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.0941
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6881
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5358
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5163
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2866
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7744
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4810
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0459
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0276
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3041
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.687 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.33e-5 · top T=8.00h (24.7%) · top-3 cover 63.2%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)9.9e-57.4e-54.9e-52.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.15e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.15e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.75e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.75e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.86e-5 · 24.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.86e-5 · 24.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.05e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.05e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.15e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.15e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.06e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.06e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.44e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.44e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.19e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.19e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.73e-5 · 16.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.73e-5 · 16.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.66e-5 · 21.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.66e-5 · 21.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.27e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.27e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.49e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.49e-6 · 0.4% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 24.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.995e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-42.68×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -24.37400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.011
annualized -24.37
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -30.09σ ann 70% · Sortino -16.44 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3611%-2872%-2133%-1394%-654%85%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)70.5%Ann. vol σ-3009.0%Sharpe (ann)-1644.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0780.0800.0820.0830.0850.087t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:09 UTC
Snapshot age
1.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:10 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e876f07de5a304bfd72b9e016e9a5770d6d82abac8e72bc739f00002d3c6ab25 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.74K
bid $2.06K · ask $675
Depth within 10bp
$6.27K
bid $3.88K · ask $2.39K
Depth within 50bp
$17.93K
bid $10.71K · ask $7.22K
Mid price
0.081515
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.252
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.037
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-manta/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0815504.26bp0.0815702FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.08188545.38bp0.08277010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.083883290.52bp0.08694020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0814903.07bp0.0814901FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.08139414.87bp0.0811909FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.08084382.44bp0.08001020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+4.290e-5
0.00429% / hr
Annualised APR
37.607%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
9.7d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
9.7d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-37.607%9.7d97.1d
SHORTRECEIVE37.607%9.7d97.1d

/api/asset/hl-manta/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$4.92M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-manta/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.205 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.64M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.48M
real volume
Net delta
$842.65K
sellers net
Imbalance
-20.48%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
20.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-manta/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.20% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.083270→0.0814402.198%5
#22026-06-13 13:00:00Z3.0h0.083990→0.0822302.095%4
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.083440→0.0825801.031%3

/api/asset/hl-manta/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
70.50%
σ per bar = 0.000307
Mean return (annualised)
-2121.27%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-30.09
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.83%
peak 0.08 → trough 0.08 over 2763 bars

/api/asset/hl-manta/risk · same metrics, JSON