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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

LINK

LINK-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-link · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.98%
realized vol (ann.)
26.43%
max drawdown
0.55%
sharpe
13.59
ulcer index
0.22%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.16%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1653.78
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.47%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
762.36
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.98%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
5.12%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-link/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$7.910
24h Δ · live
-0.98%
24h vol · live
$1.9M
LINK · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=7.9638 · σ=0.0375 · range [7.9018, 8.0235] · R²=0.786▼ FALLING -0.96%σ LOW 0.47%LAST 7.91158.02357.99317.96277.93227.9018μ = 7.9638max 8.0235min 7.9018dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $7.91
Funding direction · live
Long fee 46.1%Short fee 53.9%SHORT FEE53.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.996 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
46.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
53.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000585% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=246,277 · μ=9851.1 · σ=9393.7 · CV=0.95BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=6010,33920,67731,01641,354μ = 985141,35450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 41354 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.8s
$mark $
$7.9095
$mid $
$7.9091
◉prev-day close
$7.9877
Δ24h Δ %
-0.979%
$24h vol $
$1.93M
◐open interest $
$31.38M
%funding (1h)
0.000585%
%funding (yr)
+5.12%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=7.9638 · σ=0.0375 · range [7.9018, 8.0235] · R²=0.786▼ FALLING -0.96%σ LOW 0.47%LAST 7.91158.02357.99317.96277.93227.9018μ = 7.9638max 8.0235min 7.9018dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $7.9095 · 24h -0.98% · range $[7.9018, 8.0235]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [7.8806, 8.0464] · σ=0.0375 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=41%BEARISH -0.61%CLOSE 7.9115 vs OPEN 7.9604 (-0.61%)&#9660; CLOSE 7.91158.04648.00507.96357.92217.8806μ close = 7.9638O7.960 H7.991 L7.955 C7.988 (+0.35%)O7.960 H7.991 L7.955 C7.988 (+0.35%)O7.989 H8.030 L7.976 C8.010 (+0.26%)O7.989 H8.030 L7.976 C8.010 (+0.26%)O8.011 H8.011 L7.977 C7.994 (-0.21%)O8.011 H8.011 L7.977 C7.994 (-0.21%)O7.993 H8.013 L7.993 C8.006 (+0.17%)O7.993 H8.013 L7.993 C8.006 (+0.17%)O8.009 H8.042 L7.998 C8.024 (+0.18%)O8.009 H8.042 L7.998 C8.024 (+0.18%)O8.025 H8.026 L7.945 C7.988 (-0.46%)O8.025 H8.026 L7.945 C7.988 (-0.46%)O7.990 H8.019 L7.976 C7.989 (-0.01%)O7.990 H8.019 L7.976 C7.989 (-0.01%)O7.988 H8.013 L7.965 C7.977 (-0.14%)O7.988 H8.013 L7.965 C7.977 (-0.14%)O7.977 H8.006 L7.963 C7.989 (+0.15%)O7.977 H8.006 L7.963 C7.989 (+0.15%)O7.988 H7.988 L7.964 C7.980 (-0.11%)O7.988 H7.988 L7.964 C7.980 (-0.11%)O7.979 H8.046 L7.952 C8.014 (+0.44%)O7.979 H8.046 L7.952 C8.014 (+0.44%)O8.020 H8.020 L7.981 C7.981 (-0.50%)O8.020 H8.020 L7.981 C7.981 (-0.50%)O7.979 H7.987 L7.963 C7.980 (+0.02%)O7.979 H7.987 L7.963 C7.980 (+0.02%)O7.981 H7.982 L7.956 C7.960 (-0.27%)O7.981 H7.982 L7.956 C7.960 (-0.27%)O7.963 H8.002 L7.954 C7.973 (+0.12%)O7.963 H8.002 L7.954 C7.973 (+0.12%)O7.969 H8.000 L7.950 C7.958 (-0.13%)O7.969 H8.000 L7.950 C7.958 (-0.13%)O7.958 H7.970 L7.948 C7.960 (+0.04%)O7.958 H7.970 L7.948 C7.960 (+0.04%)-0.6%O7.960 H7.960 L7.905 C7.915 (-0.56%)O7.960 H7.960 L7.905 C7.915 (-0.56%)O7.918 H7.927 L7.891 C7.920 (+0.03%)O7.918 H7.927 L7.891 C7.920 (+0.03%)O7.922 H7.948 L7.911 C7.913 (-0.12%)O7.922 H7.948 L7.911 C7.913 (-0.12%)O7.918 H7.920 L7.882 C7.902 (-0.20%)O7.918 H7.920 L7.882 C7.902 (-0.20%)O7.902 H7.922 L7.895 C7.910 (+0.10%)O7.902 H7.922 L7.895 C7.910 (+0.10%)O7.910 H7.942 L7.881 C7.941 (+0.39%)O7.910 H7.942 L7.881 C7.941 (+0.39%)O7.942 H7.947 L7.914 C7.914 (-0.35%)O7.942 H7.947 L7.914 C7.914 (-0.35%)O7.914 H7.921 L7.907 C7.912 (-0.03%)O7.914 H7.921 L7.907 C7.912 (-0.03%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=246,277 · μ=9851.1 · σ=9393.7 · CV=0.95BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=6010,33920,67731,01641,354μ = 985124,271.2 · 58.7% peak24,271.2 · 58.7% peak11,994.2 · 29.0% peak11,994.2 · 29.0% peak21,491.1 · 52.0% peak21,491.1 · 52.0% peak5,184.4 · 12.5% peak5,184.4 · 12.5% peak21,968.8 · 53.1% peak21,968.8 · 53.1% peak41,35441,354 · 100.0% peak41,354 · 100.0% peak6,425.5 · 15.5% peak6,425.5 · 15.5% peak5,090.1 · 12.3% peak5,090.1 · 12.3% peak5,139.8 · 12.4% peak5,139.8 · 12.4% peak7,091.5 · 17.1% peak7,091.5 · 17.1% peak9,475.8 · 22.9% peak9,475.8 · 22.9% peak4,164.5 · 10.1% peak4,164.5 · 10.1% peak1,114 · 2.7% peak1,114 · 2.7% peak11,899.1 · 28.8% peak11,899.1 · 28.8% peak2,277.9 · 5.5% peak2,277.9 · 5.5% peak4,661.5 · 11.3% peak4,661.5 · 11.3% peak2,657.7 · 6.4% peak2,657.7 · 6.4% peak9,284 · 22.5% peak9,284 · 22.5% peak6,554.9 · 15.9% peak6,554.9 · 15.9% peak7,431.1 · 18.0% peak7,431.1 · 18.0% peak6,504.4 · 15.7% peak6,504.4 · 15.7% peak20,974.8 · 50.7% peak20,974.8 · 50.7% peak5,053.1 · 12.2% peak5,053.1 · 12.2% peak2,611.1 · 6.3% peak2,611.1 · 6.3% peak1,602.2 · 3.9% peak1,602.2 · 3.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 246277 · peak 41354 · CV 0.95

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0025 · skew=-0.15 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.76 (mesokurtic)43210 1-52.67bpbin -52.67bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -52.67bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-44.37bpbin -44.37bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -44.37bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-36.07bpbin -36.07bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -36.07bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-27.77bpbin -27.77bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -27.77bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-19.47bpbin -19.47bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -19.47bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-11.17bpbin -11.17bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -11.17bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-2.88bpbin -2.88bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -2.88bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 35.42bpbin 5.42bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 5.42bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 413.72bpbin 13.72bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 13.72bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 122.02bpbin 22.02bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 22.02bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 130.32bpbin 30.32bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 30.32bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 238.62bpbin 38.62bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 38.62bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.15 · kurt=-0.54 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$7.9095
Mid price
$7.9091
24h change
-0.98%
Mark–mid spread
0.51 bps
Prev-day close
$7.9877

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.34)
μ MEAN7.9638$95% CI: [7.9491$, 7.9786$]
σ STD DEV0.0375$σ² = 14.093×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.47%
med MEDIAN7.9766$Q₁ 7.9201$ · Q₃ 7.9888$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.1217$ · IQR 0.0687$ (1.349σ→0.0506$)
min 7.9018$Q₁ 7.9201$med 7.9766$Q₃ 7.9888$max 8.0235$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.295approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.339platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.74
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.24
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-14.68
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.040305%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.157
σᵣ STD / h0.256892%σ²ᵣ = 0.066×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.37×
σ ANNUALISED24.04%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.257%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-14.68negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-13.51downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.16approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.38mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.92
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-353.07%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.44%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.440%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.539%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.506%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.52%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.440%VaR₉₉−0.539%ES₉₅−0.506%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK802.35$
−1.52% drawdown over 16h
790.18$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.54% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
40.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.195 · within band
Bollinger upper
$8.0230
Bollinger MA
$7.9537
Bollinger lower
$7.8844

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.45 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.455negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.200lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.931strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.190significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.931
H = 0.931STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.455k=2+0.200k=3-0.219k=4+0.184k=5-0.3880+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.19)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.45 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.19)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.93M
Open interest (USD)
$31.38M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.06x
1h funding
0.000585%
Funding (annualised)
+5.12%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.43% · worst -0.57% · typical |Δ| 0.21%MILD BEARISH -0.97%BEST+0.43%21hWORST-0.57%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.21%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.97%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.98%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.56%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.55%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.97%+0.44%-1.09%0.27% · 12h0.27% · 12h0.27%12h-0.21% · 13h-0.21% · 13h-0.21%13h0.15% · 14h0.15% · 14h0.15%14h0.22% · 15h0.22% · 15h0.22%15h-0.44% · 16h-0.44% · 16h-0.44%16h0.02% · 17h0.02% · 17h0.02%17h-0.16% · 18h-0.16% · 18h-0.16%18h0.15% · 19h0.15% · 19h0.15%19h-0.11% · 20h-0.11% · 20h-0.11%20h0.43% · 21h0.43% · 21h0.43%21h★ BEST-0.42% · 22h-0.42% · 22h-0.42%22h-0.01% · 23h-0.01% · 23h-0.01%23h-0.25% · 00h-0.25% · 00h-0.25%00h0.16% · 01h0.16% · 01h0.16%01h-0.19% · 02h-0.19% · 02h-0.19%02h0.03% · 03h0.03% · 03h0.03%03h-0.57% · 04h-0.57% · 04h-0.57%04h▼ WORST0.06% · 05h0.06% · 05h0.06%05h-0.09% · 06h-0.09% · 06h-0.09%06h-0.14% · 07h-0.14% · 07h-0.14%07h0.10% · 08h0.10% · 08h0.10%08h0.39% · 09h0.39% · 09h0.39%09h-0.34% · 10h-0.34% · 10h-0.34%10h-0.03% · 11h-0.03% · 11h-0.03%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.56%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.43% · worst -0.57% · typical |Δ| 0.206%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.97%)FINAL-0.97%MAX DD-1.52%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.44%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9903 · peak 1.0044 · range [0.9891, 1.0044]1.00440.9891break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0044UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.52% · moderate0%-1.52%▼ TROUGH -1.52%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.52%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.21%bar 3-4 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.52%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9903 (-0.97%) · max DD -1.52% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-21.18 · σ=19.33UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -6.92 (+0.74σ vs μ)61.6630.830.00-30.83-61.66μ = -21.180.770.77-26.44-26.44-3.80-3.80-21.35-21.35-6.30-6.30-5.06-5.06-6.56-6.56-10.79-10.79-10.35-10.35-13.96-13.96-49.33-49.33-49.40-49.40-43.91-43.91-35.91-35.91-61.66-61.66-38.13-38.13-12.23-12.23-1.04-1.04-6.92-6.92v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -6.917 · range [-61.66, 0.77] · μ -21.177 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=25.0130 · σ=2.7558 · range [19.7860, 29.7282] · R²=0.029▼ FALLING -11.71%σ HIGH 11.02%LAST 22.931529.728227.242624.757122.271519.7860μ = 25.0130max 29.7282min 19.7860dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 22.93% · range [19.79%, 29.73%] · μ 25.01% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.457 · σ=0.169MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.266 (+1.13σ vs μ)0.6400.3200.000-0.320-0.640μ = -0.457-0.413-0.413-0.374-0.374-0.325-0.325-0.613-0.613-0.238-0.238-0.640-0.640-0.635-0.635-0.545-0.545-0.600-0.600-0.574-0.574-0.512-0.512-0.431-0.431-0.603-0.603-0.505-0.505-0.618-0.618-0.471-0.471-0.010-0.010-0.315-0.315-0.266-0.266v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.266 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.2412
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8864
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
14.1572
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0147
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0304
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7406
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1374
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0326
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8234
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0063
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1206
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.528 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.01e-6 · top T=2.00h (42.0%) · top-3 cover 75.0%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.0e-53.0e-52.0e-51.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.39e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.39e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.78e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.78e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.35e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.35e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.18e-6 · 9.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.18e-6 · 9.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.99e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.99e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.62e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.62e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.34e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.34e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.25e-5 · 23.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.25e-5 · 23.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.86e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.86e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.64e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.64e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.83e-6 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.83e-6 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.04e-5 · 42.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.04e-5 · 42.0% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 42.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.609e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-104.50×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -23.70400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.010
annualized -23.70
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -597% · APY -100% · Sharpe -24.97σ ann 24% · Sortino -18.91 · n 4999
-2997%-2392%-1787%-1182%-576%29%-596.8%APR (simple)-99.8%APY (compound)23.9%Ann. vol σ-2497.3%Sharpe (ann)-1890.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
7.5687.7137.8588.0038.1488.293t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:22:44 UTC
Snapshot age
2.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:22:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
840956f194b8a71fffc2a416b889c3e613b5a2c3a53ed4586b837dfc0c3f5940 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,503HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.7

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$32.03K
bid $11.08K · ask $20.95K
Depth within 10bp
$92.79K
bid $48.91K · ask $43.88K
Depth within 50bp
$92.79K
bid $48.91K · ask $43.88K
Mid price
7.909050
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.055
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.669
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-link/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K7.91001.14bp7.91002FILLED
BUY$10.00K7.91021.49bp7.91086FILLED
BUY$100.00K7.91305.06bp7.915320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K7.90761.79bp7.90744FILLED
SELL$10.00K7.90633.45bp7.90589FILLED
SELL$100.00K7.90455.70bp7.903720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+5.847e-6
0.00058% / hr
Annualised APR
5.126%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
71.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
71.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-5.126%71.3d1.95y
SHORTRECEIVE5.126%71.3d1.95y

/api/asset/hl-link/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$8.0000–$9.00004$48.62K
$7.0000–$8.0000★21$197.65K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-link/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.120 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$97.71K
real volume
Sell weight
$124.30K
real volume
Net delta
$26.59K
sellers net
Imbalance
-11.98%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
12.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-link/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 0.76% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h7.9729→7.91260.756%3
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms8.0139→7.96010.671%1
#32026-06-13 18:00:00Z0ms8.0235→7.97660.585%1

/api/asset/hl-link/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
23.90%
σ per bar = 0.000104
Mean return (annualised)
-596.80%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-24.97
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.14%
peak 7.97 → trough 7.88 over 3467 bars

/api/asset/hl-link/risk · same metrics, JSON