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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

JTO

JTO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-jto · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.30%
realized vol (ann.)
93.35%
max drawdown
3.87%
sharpe
-71.96
ulcer index
1.36%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4951.32
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.42%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.88
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1961.60
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.88
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.30%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.30%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-jto/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.536
24h Δ · live
-2.30%
24h vol · live
$1.4M
JTO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.5442 · σ=0.0050 · range [0.5343, 0.5515] · R²=0.031▼ FALLING -2.13%σ LOW 0.93%LAST 0.53590.55150.54720.54290.53860.5343μ = 0.5442max 0.5515min 0.5343dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.54
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,796,923 · μ=111876.9 · σ=101181.8 · CV=0.90BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11099,053198,106297,158396,211μ = 111877396,21150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 396211 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.3s
$mark $
$0.5358
$mid $
$0.5357
◉prev-day close
$0.5485
Δ24h Δ %
-2.305%
$24h vol $
$1.43M
◐open interest $
$3.09M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.5442 · σ=0.0050 · range [0.5343, 0.5515] · R²=0.031▼ FALLING -2.13%σ LOW 0.93%LAST 0.53590.55150.54720.54290.53860.5343μ = 0.5442max 0.5515min 0.5343dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.5358 · 24h -2.30% · range $[0.5343, 0.5515]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.5305, 0.5550] · σ=0.0050 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=49%BEARISH -1.67%CLOSE 0.5359 vs OPEN 0.5451 (-1.67%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.53590.55500.54890.54270.53660.5305μ close = 0.5442O0.545 H0.550 L0.543 C0.548 (+0.47%)O0.545 H0.550 L0.543 C0.548 (+0.47%)O0.547 H0.550 L0.544 C0.549 (+0.31%)O0.547 H0.550 L0.544 C0.549 (+0.31%)O0.548 H0.551 L0.548 C0.549 (+0.16%)O0.548 H0.551 L0.548 C0.549 (+0.16%)O0.549 H0.551 L0.545 C0.550 (+0.09%)O0.549 H0.551 L0.545 C0.550 (+0.09%)O0.549 H0.554 L0.549 C0.551 (+0.36%)O0.549 H0.554 L0.549 C0.551 (+0.36%)O0.551 H0.555 L0.540 C0.541 (-1.82%)O0.551 H0.555 L0.540 C0.541 (-1.82%)O0.541 H0.541 L0.533 C0.534 (-1.32%)O0.541 H0.541 L0.533 C0.534 (-1.32%)O0.534 H0.540 L0.534 C0.538 (+0.72%)O0.534 H0.540 L0.534 C0.538 (+0.72%)O0.538 H0.543 L0.538 C0.540 (+0.48%)O0.538 H0.543 L0.538 C0.540 (+0.48%)O0.542 H0.543 L0.537 C0.539 (-0.54%)O0.542 H0.543 L0.537 C0.539 (-0.54%)O0.539 H0.552 L0.536 C0.548 (+1.72%)O0.539 H0.552 L0.536 C0.548 (+1.72%)O0.548 H0.550 L0.544 C0.544 (-0.71%)O0.548 H0.550 L0.544 C0.544 (-0.71%)O0.543 H0.548 L0.543 C0.544 (+0.21%)O0.543 H0.548 L0.543 C0.544 (+0.21%)O0.545 H0.545 L0.538 C0.540 (-0.90%)O0.545 H0.545 L0.538 C0.540 (-0.90%)O0.540 H0.549 L0.538 C0.549 (+1.66%)O0.540 H0.549 L0.538 C0.549 (+1.66%)O0.549 H0.551 L0.541 C0.543 (-1.11%)O0.549 H0.551 L0.541 C0.543 (-1.11%)O0.542 H0.548 L0.542 C0.545 (+0.59%)O0.542 H0.548 L0.542 C0.545 (+0.59%)O0.545 H0.545 L0.540 C0.541 (-0.68%)O0.545 H0.545 L0.540 C0.541 (-0.68%)O0.541 H0.548 L0.540 C0.548 (+1.34%)O0.541 H0.548 L0.540 C0.548 (+1.34%)O0.547 H0.550 L0.546 C0.549 (+0.32%)O0.547 H0.550 L0.546 C0.549 (+0.32%)O0.550 H0.550 L0.544 C0.547 (-0.42%)O0.550 H0.550 L0.544 C0.547 (-0.42%)O0.547 H0.551 L0.547 C0.549 (+0.29%)O0.547 H0.551 L0.547 C0.549 (+0.29%)O0.549 H0.552 L0.545 C0.546 (-0.52%)O0.549 H0.552 L0.545 C0.546 (-0.52%)-1.9%O0.547 H0.550 L0.535 C0.536 (-1.89%)O0.547 H0.550 L0.535 C0.536 (-1.89%)O0.536 H0.537 L0.530 C0.536 (-0.01%)O0.536 H0.537 L0.530 C0.536 (-0.01%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,796,923 · μ=111876.9 · σ=101181.8 · CV=0.90BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11099,053198,106297,158396,211μ = 111877221,339 · 55.9% peak221,339 · 55.9% peak100,028 · 25.2% peak100,028 · 25.2% peak79,786 · 20.1% peak79,786 · 20.1% peak170,808 · 43.1% peak170,808 · 43.1% peak131,115 · 33.1% peak131,115 · 33.1% peak396,211396,211 · 100.0% peak396,211 · 100.0% peak69,405 · 17.5% peak69,405 · 17.5% peak99,746 · 25.2% peak99,746 · 25.2% peak19,933 · 5.0% peak19,933 · 5.0% peak82,408 · 20.8% peak82,408 · 20.8% peak384,248 · 97.0% peak384,248 · 97.0% peak121,158 · 30.6% peak121,158 · 30.6% peak32,980 · 8.3% peak32,980 · 8.3% peak192,584 · 48.6% peak192,584 · 48.6% peak30,044 · 7.6% peak30,044 · 7.6% peak39,123 · 9.9% peak39,123 · 9.9% peak42,922 · 10.8% peak42,922 · 10.8% peak22,753 · 5.7% peak22,753 · 5.7% peak68,876 · 17.4% peak68,876 · 17.4% peak40,348 · 10.2% peak40,348 · 10.2% peak44,723 · 11.3% peak44,723 · 11.3% peak20,975 · 5.3% peak20,975 · 5.3% peak99,271 · 25.1% peak99,271 · 25.1% peak182,126 · 46.0% peak182,126 · 46.0% peak104,013 · 26.3% peak104,013 · 26.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2796923 · peak 396211 · CV 0.90

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0088 · skew=-0.08 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.28 (mesokurtic)54310 2-182.34bpbin -182.34bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -182.34bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-151.82bp 2-121.30bpbin -121.30bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -121.30bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-90.78bpbin -90.78bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -90.78bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-60.26bpbin -60.26bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -60.26bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-29.74bpbin -29.74bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -29.74bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 50.78bpbin 0.78bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 0.78bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 531.30bpbin 31.30bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 31.30bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 161.82bpbin 61.82bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 61.82bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak92.34bp 1122.86bpbin 122.86bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 122.86bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2153.38bpbin 153.38bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 153.38bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.07 · kurt=-0.17 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.5358
Mid price
$0.5357
24h change
-2.30%
Mark–mid spread
2.05 bps
Prev-day close
$0.5485

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.26)
μ MEAN0.5442$95% CI: [0.5422$, 0.5461$]
σ STD DEV0.0050$σ² = 0.253×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.93%
med MEDIAN0.5451$Q₁ 0.5403$ · Q₃ 0.5487$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0171$ · IQR 0.0084$ (1.349σ→0.0068$)
min 0.5343$Q₁ 0.5403$med 0.5451$Q₃ 0.5487$max 0.5515$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.409approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.258platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.18
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.81
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.41
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-8.89
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.089679%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.095
σᵣ STD / h0.944177%σ²ᵣ = 0.891×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.53×
σ ANNUALISED88.37%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.944%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-8.89negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-7.94downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.07approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.09mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.89
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-785.59%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.76%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.765%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.951%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.922%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.11%2h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.765%VaR₉₉−1.951%ES₉₅−1.922%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 2h duration
PEAK55.15$
−3.11% drawdown over 2h
53.43$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.21% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
40.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.137 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.5524
Bollinger MA
$0.5429
Bollinger lower
$0.5333

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.263within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.094lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.851strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.864fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.851
H = 0.851STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.263k=2+0.094k=3-0.225k=4+0.157k=5-0.4030+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.86)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.96very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.86)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.43M
Open interest (USD)
$3.09M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.46x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.69% · worst -1.98% · typical |Δ| 0.71%MILD BEARISH -2.15%BEST+1.69%21hWORST-1.98%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.71%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.15%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.53%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.41%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.28%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.15%+0.70%-2.45%0.19% · 12h0.19% · 12h0.19%12h0.12% · 13h0.12% · 13h0.12%13h0.06% · 14h0.06% · 14h0.06%14h0.33% · 15h0.33% · 15h0.33%15h-1.98% · 16h-1.98% · 16h-1.98%16h▼ WORST-1.18% · 17h-1.18% · 17h-1.18%17h0.68% · 18h0.68% · 18h0.68%18h0.42% · 19h0.42% · 19h0.42%19h-0.32% · 20h-0.32% · 20h-0.32%20h1.69% · 21h1.69% · 21h1.69%21h★ BEST-0.76% · 22h-0.76% · 22h-0.76%22h0.16% · 23h0.16% · 23h0.16%23h-0.89% · 00h-0.89% · 00h-0.89%00h1.66% · 01h1.66% · 01h1.66%01h-1.12% · 02h-1.12% · 02h-1.12%02h0.45% · 03h0.45% · 03h0.45%03h-0.71% · 04h-0.71% · 04h-0.71%04h1.29% · 05h1.29% · 05h1.29%05h0.16% · 06h0.16% · 06h0.16%06h-0.31% · 07h-0.31% · 07h-0.31%07h0.24% · 08h0.24% · 08h0.24%08h-0.41% · 09h-0.41% · 09h-0.41%09h-1.87% · 10h-1.87% · 10h-1.87%10h-0.08% · 11h-0.08% · 11h-0.08%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.53%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 1.69% · worst -1.98% · typical |Δ| 0.712%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.23%)FINAL-2.23%MAX DD-3.13%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.71%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9777 · peak 1.0071 · range [0.9755, 1.0071]1.00710.9755break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0071UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.13% · moderate0%-3.13%▼ TROUGH -3.13%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.13%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.13%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9777 (-2.23%) · max DD -3.13% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-3.58 · σ=22.92MIXED EDGELAST -45.77 (-1.84σ vs μ)45.7722.890.00-22.89-45.77μ = -3.58-40.51-40.51-29.86-29.86-24.48-24.48-30.35-30.35-7.95-7.958.068.0634.5934.594.974.9720.7620.769.059.05-7.30-7.30-6.63-6.639.009.0025.0125.01-4.25-4.2525.5725.575.685.68-13.54-13.54-45.77-45.77v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -45.773 · range [-45.77, 34.59] · μ -3.576 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=94.3005 · σ=16.3817 · range [64.1450, 124.2817] · R²=0.160▼ FALLING -18.14%σ EXTREME 17.37%LAST 72.3755124.2817109.247694.213479.179264.1450μ = 94.3005max 124.2817min 64.1450dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 72.38% · range [64.14%, 124.28%] · μ 94.30% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.340 · σ=0.339MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.115 (+0.66σ vs μ)0.7810.3910.000-0.391-0.781μ = -0.3400.2170.217-0.021-0.0210.0920.0920.0410.0410.1240.124-0.488-0.488-0.610-0.610-0.498-0.498-0.547-0.547-0.603-0.603-0.741-0.741-0.781-0.781-0.721-0.721-0.583-0.583-0.411-0.411-0.541-0.541-0.396-0.3960.1270.127-0.115-0.115v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.115 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0278
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9862
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.7194
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0827
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5647
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1016
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2965
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1055
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9260
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3545
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.718 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.04e-4 · top T=2.00h (36.3%) · top-3 cover 62.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.5e-43.4e-42.3e-41.1e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.74e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.74e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.64e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.64e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.31e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.31e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.25e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.25e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.18e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.18e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.98e-4 · 15.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.98e-4 · 15.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.86e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.86e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.62e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.62e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.59e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.59e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.02e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.02e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.54e-4 · 36.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.54e-4 · 36.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 36.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.252e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-22.31×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -19.13400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -19.13
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -18.87σ ann 85% · Sortino -16.13 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2264%-1791%-1318%-845%-372%101%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)84.6%Ann. vol σ-1886.7%Sharpe (ann)-1612.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.5100.5230.5360.5490.5620.574t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:03 UTC
Snapshot age
3.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:07 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
f7dad4f5a1e8f2a407ebc4cb39bcaa28937fb0abded1404158e2f66c008730c1 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.61K
bid $428 · ask $1.18K
Depth within 10bp
$6.35K
bid $2.92K · ask $3.42K
Depth within 50bp
$47.84K
bid $22.17K · ask $25.67K
Mid price
0.535730
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.072
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.249
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-jto/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.5359053.26bp0.5359703FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.5362349.40bp0.53638011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.53646213.67bp0.53724020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.5355173.98bp0.5354402FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.53515610.71bp0.53492012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.53494714.62bp0.53445020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-jto/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.80M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-jto/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.051 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.22M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.35M
real volume
Net delta
$131.97K
sellers net
Imbalance
-5.12%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
5.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-jto/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.11% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.551470→0.5343303.108%3
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h0.548730→0.5359402.331%2
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.547750→0.5396301.482%3

/api/asset/hl-jto/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
84.56%
σ per bar = 0.000369
Mean return (annualised)
-1595.42%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-18.87
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.87%
peak 0.55 → trough 0.53 over 1158 bars

/api/asset/hl-jto/risk · same metrics, JSON