Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

IOTA

IOTA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-iota · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.26%
realized vol (ann.)
43.59%
max drawdown
1.05%
sharpe
24.92
ulcer index
0.59%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.49%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1840.50
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.98%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.04
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1106.32
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.04
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.26%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-1.41%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change -1.26%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 12.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-iota/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH738ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.046
24h Δ · live
-1.26%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
IOTA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0463 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0458, 0.0472] · R²=0.565▼ FALLING -1.72%σ LOW 0.79%LAST 0.04610.04720.04680.04650.04610.0458μ = 0.0463max 0.0472min 0.0458dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 38.1%Short fee 61.9%SHORT FEE61.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.959 / 1.00 bits (96%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
38.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
61.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000161% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,311,421 · μ=92456.8 · σ=45401.9 · CV=0.49STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13047,08194,163141,244188,325μ = 92457188,32550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 188325 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
738ms
$mark $
$0.0461
$mid $
$0.0461
◉prev-day close
$0.0467
Δ24h Δ %
-1.257%
$24h vol $
$99.71k
◐open interest $
$223.86k
%funding (1h)
-0.000161%
%funding (yr)
-1.41%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0463 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0458, 0.0472] · R²=0.565▼ FALLING -1.72%σ LOW 0.79%LAST 0.04610.04720.04680.04650.04610.0458μ = 0.0463max 0.0472min 0.0458dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0461 · 24h -1.26% · range $[0.0458, 0.0472]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.0456, 0.0474] · σ=0.0004 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=50%BEARISH -1.56%CLOSE 0.0461 vs OPEN 0.0468 (-1.56%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.04610.04740.04690.04650.04600.0456μ close = 0.0463O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.16%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.16%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.20%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.20%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.45%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.45%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.50%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.50%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.76%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.76%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.91%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.91%)O0.046 H0.047 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.32%)O0.046 H0.047 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.32%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.04%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.04%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.53%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.53%)O0.046 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.96%)O0.046 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.96%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.51%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.51%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+0.27%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+0.27%)O0.046 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.20%)O0.046 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.20%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.15%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.15%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.80%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.80%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.19%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.19%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.45%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.45%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.39%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.39%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.39%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.39%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+0.18%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+0.18%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.24%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.24%)1.2%O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+1.17%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+1.17%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.72%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.72%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.18%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.18%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.01%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.01%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,311,421 · μ=92456.8 · σ=45401.9 · CV=0.49STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=13047,08194,163141,244188,325μ = 92457185,986 · 98.8% peak185,986 · 98.8% peak103,133 · 54.8% peak103,133 · 54.8% peak83,568 · 44.4% peak83,568 · 44.4% peak73,414 · 39.0% peak73,414 · 39.0% peak129,078 · 68.5% peak129,078 · 68.5% peak88,796 · 47.2% peak88,796 · 47.2% peak53,238 · 28.3% peak53,238 · 28.3% peak106,241 · 56.4% peak106,241 · 56.4% peak37,798 · 20.1% peak37,798 · 20.1% peak188,325188,325 · 100.0% peak188,325 · 100.0% peak42,127 · 22.4% peak42,127 · 22.4% peak41,023 · 21.8% peak41,023 · 21.8% peak182,025 · 96.7% peak182,025 · 96.7% peak116,340 · 61.8% peak116,340 · 61.8% peak50,023 · 26.6% peak50,023 · 26.6% peak67,235 · 35.7% peak67,235 · 35.7% peak125,710 · 66.8% peak125,710 · 66.8% peak80,297 · 42.6% peak80,297 · 42.6% peak68,191 · 36.2% peak68,191 · 36.2% peak65,998 · 35.0% peak65,998 · 35.0% peak79,606 · 42.3% peak79,606 · 42.3% peak120,840 · 64.2% peak120,840 · 64.2% peak113,711 · 60.4% peak113,711 · 60.4% peak84,622 · 44.9% peak84,622 · 44.9% peak24,096 · 12.8% peak24,096 · 12.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2311421 · peak 188325 · CV 0.49

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0051 · skew=0.64 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.12 (mesokurtic)54310 1-88.01bpbin -88.01bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -88.01bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-69.63bpbin -69.63bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -69.63bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 2-51.25bpbin -51.25bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -51.25bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-32.87bpbin -32.87bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -32.87bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-14.49bpbin -14.49bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -14.49bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 43.89bpbin 3.89bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 3.89bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 222.27bpbin 22.27bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 22.27bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 240.65bpbin 40.65bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 40.65bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 159.03bpbin 59.03bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 59.03bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak77.41bp 195.79bpbin 95.79bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 95.79bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1114.17bpbin 114.17bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 114.17bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.67 · kurt=0.19 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0461
Mid price
$0.0461
24h change
-1.26%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0467

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.51)
μ MEAN0.0463$95% CI: [0.0462$, 0.0465$]
σ STD DEV0.0004$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.79%
med MEDIAN0.0463$Q₁ 0.0461$ · Q₃ 0.0465$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0014$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0005$)
min 0.0458$Q₁ 0.0461$med 0.0463$Q₃ 0.0465$max 0.0472$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.508right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.599mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.22
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.04
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.86
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-12.55
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.072101%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.134
σᵣ STD / h0.537580%σ²ᵣ = 0.289×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.46×
σ ANNUALISED50.31%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.538%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-12.55negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-13.58downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.72right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.54mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.08
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-631.60%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.75%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.753%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.925%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.870%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.00%15h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.753%VaR₉₉−0.925%ES₉₅−0.870%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 15h duration
PEAK4.72$
−3.00% drawdown over 15h
4.58$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.10% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
42.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.358 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0467
Bollinger MA
$0.0462
Bollinger lower
$0.0457

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.177within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.020lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.979strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.461significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.979
H = 0.979STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.177k=2-0.020k=3-0.138k=4-0.033k=5-0.2550+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.46)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.46)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$99.71k
Open interest (USD)
$223.86k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.45x
1h funding
-0.000161%
Funding (annualised)
-1.41%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.23% · worst -0.97% · typical |Δ| 0.42%MILD BEARISH -1.73%BEST+1.23%09hWORST-0.97%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.42%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.73%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.19%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.13%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.66%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.73%+0.70%-2.36%-0.30% · 13h-0.30% · 13h-0.30%13h0.48% · 14h0.48% · 14h0.48%14h0.52% · 15h0.52% · 15h0.52%15h-0.77% · 16h-0.77% · 16h-0.77%16h-0.97% · 17h-0.97% · 17h-0.97%17h▼ WORST-0.27% · 18h-0.27% · 18h-0.27%18h0.01% · 19h0.01% · 19h0.01%19h-0.46% · 20h-0.46% · 20h-0.46%20h1.03% · 21h1.03% · 21h1.03%21h-0.56% · 22h-0.56% · 22h-0.56%22h0.34% · 23h0.34% · 23h0.34%23h0.27% · 00h0.27% · 00h0.27%00h0.09% · 01h0.09% · 01h0.09%01h-0.67% · 02h-0.67% · 02h-0.67%02h-0.08% · 03h-0.08% · 03h-0.08%03h-0.27% · 04h-0.27% · 04h-0.27%04h-0.34% · 05h-0.34% · 05h-0.34%05h-0.39% · 06h-0.39% · 06h-0.39%06h0.19% · 07h0.19% · 07h0.19%07h-0.05% · 08h-0.05% · 08h-0.05%08h1.23% · 09h1.23% · 09h1.23%09h★ BEST-0.65% · 10h-0.65% · 10h-0.65%10h-0.11% · 11h-0.11% · 11h-0.11%11h0.01% · 12h0.01% · 12h0.01%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.13%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.23% · worst -0.97% · typical |Δ| 0.419%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.75%)FINAL-1.75%MAX DD-3.03%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.69%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9825 · peak 1.0069 · range [0.9765, 1.0069]1.00690.9765break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0069UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.03% · moderate0%-3.03%▼ TROUGH -3.03%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.03%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.30%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.03%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9825 (-1.75%) · max DD -3.03% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-22.35 · σ=35.06MIXED EDGELAST 15.69 (+1.09σ vs μ)98.2149.100.00-49.10-98.21μ = -22.35-33.20-33.20-25.24-25.24-56.42-56.42-31.43-31.43-28.00-28.001.971.9716.2916.2918.6318.6312.2512.25-22.58-22.58-13.43-13.43-46.81-46.81-98.21-98.21-82.67-82.67-66.59-66.599.569.56-0.00-0.005.505.5015.6915.69v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 15.692 · range [-98.21, 18.63] · μ -22.352 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=49.4643 · σ=14.6884 · range [20.5188, 66.7187] · R²=0.087▲ RISING +0.59%σ EXTREME 29.69%LAST 58.151366.718755.168743.618732.068820.5188μ = 49.4643max 66.7187min 20.5188dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 58.15% · range [20.52%, 66.72%] · μ 49.46% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.235 · σ=0.329MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.445 (-0.64σ vs μ)0.7460.3730.000-0.373-0.746μ = -0.2350.2650.2650.3000.300-0.103-0.1030.0240.024-0.331-0.331-0.705-0.705-0.703-0.703-0.746-0.746-0.372-0.372-0.103-0.1030.1460.146-0.095-0.095-0.621-0.621-0.286-0.2860.0450.0450.0570.057-0.364-0.364-0.425-0.425-0.445-0.445v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.445 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.3384
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3106
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.5930
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6118
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9583
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3151
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6377
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0192
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6139
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5393
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.813 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.19e-5 · top T=2.00h (26.6%) · top-3 cover 58.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.0e-47.6e-55.1e-52.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.55e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.55e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.98e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.98e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.12e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.12e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.09e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.09e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.95e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.95e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.57e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.57e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.59e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.59e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.95e-5 · 20.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.95e-5 · 20.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.08e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.08e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.36e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.36e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.88e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.88e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.02e-4 · 26.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.02e-4 · 26.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 26.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.833e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -8.75× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-8.75×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 1.07400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.000
annualized 1.07
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -185% · APY -86% · Sharpe -4.02σ ann 46% · Sortino -3.24 · n 4999
-482%-375%-267%-160%-52%55%-184.8%APR (simple)-85.8%APY (compound)46.0%Ann. vol σ-402.0%Sharpe (ann)-324.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0440.0450.0460.0470.0470.048t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:42:44 UTC
Snapshot age
738ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:42:44 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3a0386c16eaf993f4a4bbb11da2c77a7f0918cf2b445ffc04f9217e7eb9005c0 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,323.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,668.35HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.75

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$3.35K
bid $1.58K · ask $1.77K
Depth within 50bp
$12.26K
bid $4.89K · ask $7.37K
Mid price
0.046096
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
14.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.285
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.023
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-iota/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0461317.59bp0.0461364FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.04624732.66bp0.04646514FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.046616112.73bp0.04701720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0460578.35bp0.0460504FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.04588146.61bp0.04561417FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.04576571.72bp0.04540920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.609e-6
-0.00016% / hr
Annualised APR
-1.411%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
258.9d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
258.9d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE1.411%258.9d7.09y
SHORTPAY-1.411%258.9d7.09y

/api/asset/hl-iota/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.31M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-iota/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.057 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.00M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.12M
real volume
Net delta
$121.69K
sellers net
Imbalance
-5.73%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
5.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-iota/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.44% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z4.0h0.047193→0.0460432.437%5
#22026-06-14 02:00:00Z5.0h0.046581→0.0457751.730%6
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h0.046409→0.0460580.756%3

/api/asset/hl-iota/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
45.96%
σ per bar = 0.000200
Mean return (annualised)
-184.76%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-4.02
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.36%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.05 over 1339 bars

/api/asset/hl-iota/risk · same metrics, JSON