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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

INJ

INJ-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-inj · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.38%
realized vol (ann.)
55.65%
max drawdown
1.58%
sharpe
-15.79
ulcer index
0.65%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.50%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1343.75
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.46%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-602.05
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.38%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.38%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-inj/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH786ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$5.106
24h Δ · live
-3.38%
24h vol · live
$1.7M
INJ · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=5.1986 · σ=0.0574 · range [5.1048, 5.2929] · R²=0.566▼ FALLING -2.79%σ NORMAL 1.10%LAST 5.10535.29295.24595.19895.15185.1048μ = 5.1986max 5.2929min 5.1048dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $5.11
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=339,257 · μ=13570.3 · σ=11885.4 · CV=0.88BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13011,66123,32234,98246,643μ = 1357046,64350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 46643 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
786ms
$mark $
$5.1065
$mid $
$5.1068
◉prev-day close
$5.2854
Δ24h Δ %
-3.385%
$24h vol $
$1.68M
◐open interest $
$3.39M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=5.1986 · σ=0.0574 · range [5.1048, 5.2929] · R²=0.566▼ FALLING -2.79%σ NORMAL 1.10%LAST 5.10535.29295.24595.19895.15185.1048μ = 5.1986max 5.2929min 5.1048dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $5.1065 · 24h -3.38% · range $[5.1048, 5.2929]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [5.0943, 5.3452] · σ=0.0574 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=37%BEARISH -2.74%CLOSE 5.1053 vs OPEN 5.2493 (-2.74%)&#9660; CLOSE 5.10535.34525.28255.21975.15705.0943μ close = 5.1986O5.249 H5.291 L5.228 C5.252 (+0.05%)O5.249 H5.291 L5.228 C5.252 (+0.05%)O5.251 H5.282 L5.248 C5.260 (+0.17%)O5.251 H5.282 L5.248 C5.260 (+0.17%)O5.265 H5.293 L5.241 C5.254 (-0.20%)O5.265 H5.293 L5.241 C5.254 (-0.20%)O5.253 H5.292 L5.253 C5.277 (+0.45%)O5.253 H5.292 L5.253 C5.277 (+0.45%)O5.288 H5.345 L5.269 C5.293 (+0.09%)O5.288 H5.345 L5.269 C5.293 (+0.09%)-2.1%O5.294 H5.294 L5.148 C5.183 (-2.10%)O5.294 H5.294 L5.148 C5.183 (-2.10%)O5.184 H5.228 L5.156 C5.168 (-0.31%)O5.184 H5.228 L5.156 C5.168 (-0.31%)O5.168 H5.208 L5.156 C5.184 (+0.31%)O5.168 H5.208 L5.156 C5.184 (+0.31%)O5.189 H5.228 L5.182 C5.190 (+0.02%)O5.189 H5.228 L5.182 C5.190 (+0.02%)O5.187 H5.207 L5.147 C5.207 (+0.39%)O5.187 H5.207 L5.147 C5.207 (+0.39%)O5.203 H5.268 L5.183 C5.245 (+0.81%)O5.203 H5.268 L5.183 C5.245 (+0.81%)O5.247 H5.258 L5.213 C5.213 (-0.65%)O5.247 H5.258 L5.213 C5.213 (-0.65%)O5.214 H5.299 L5.210 C5.274 (+1.16%)O5.214 H5.299 L5.210 C5.274 (+1.16%)O5.269 H5.271 L5.223 C5.237 (-0.62%)O5.269 H5.271 L5.223 C5.237 (-0.62%)O5.235 H5.280 L5.226 C5.257 (+0.41%)O5.235 H5.280 L5.226 C5.257 (+0.41%)O5.256 H5.281 L5.187 C5.221 (-0.67%)O5.256 H5.281 L5.187 C5.221 (-0.67%)O5.220 H5.245 L5.191 C5.206 (-0.27%)O5.220 H5.245 L5.191 C5.206 (-0.27%)O5.207 H5.208 L5.140 C5.147 (-1.15%)O5.207 H5.208 L5.140 C5.147 (-1.15%)O5.146 H5.155 L5.104 C5.151 (+0.11%)O5.146 H5.155 L5.104 C5.151 (+0.11%)O5.152 H5.179 L5.113 C5.119 (-0.63%)O5.152 H5.179 L5.113 C5.119 (-0.63%)O5.123 H5.141 L5.101 C5.131 (+0.17%)O5.123 H5.141 L5.101 C5.131 (+0.17%)O5.131 H5.161 L5.117 C5.136 (+0.10%)O5.131 H5.161 L5.117 C5.136 (+0.10%)O5.134 H5.170 L5.117 C5.151 (+0.33%)O5.134 H5.170 L5.117 C5.151 (+0.33%)O5.150 H5.176 L5.105 C5.105 (-0.89%)O5.150 H5.176 L5.105 C5.105 (-0.89%)O5.109 H5.125 L5.094 C5.105 (-0.07%)O5.109 H5.125 L5.094 C5.105 (-0.07%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=339,257 · μ=13570.3 · σ=11885.4 · CV=0.88BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=13011,66123,32234,98246,643μ = 1357023,860.8 · 51.2% peak23,860.8 · 51.2% peak11,980.6 · 25.7% peak11,980.6 · 25.7% peak14,279.4 · 30.6% peak14,279.4 · 30.6% peak3,895 · 8.4% peak3,895 · 8.4% peak6,223.9 · 13.3% peak6,223.9 · 13.3% peak31,694.9 · 68.0% peak31,694.9 · 68.0% peak11,632.7 · 24.9% peak11,632.7 · 24.9% peak12,601.4 · 27.0% peak12,601.4 · 27.0% peak12,211.5 · 26.2% peak12,211.5 · 26.2% peak13,239.5 · 28.4% peak13,239.5 · 28.4% peak8,302.4 · 17.8% peak8,302.4 · 17.8% peak3,557.1 · 7.6% peak3,557.1 · 7.6% peak46,64346,643 · 100.0% peak46,643 · 100.0% peak14,608.9 · 31.3% peak14,608.9 · 31.3% peak11,832.4 · 25.4% peak11,832.4 · 25.4% peak46,076.9 · 98.8% peak46,076.9 · 98.8% peak7,902.4 · 16.9% peak7,902.4 · 16.9% peak5,847.7 · 12.5% peak5,847.7 · 12.5% peak9,346.7 · 20.0% peak9,346.7 · 20.0% peak4,614.8 · 9.9% peak4,614.8 · 9.9% peak1,643.8 · 3.5% peak1,643.8 · 3.5% peak4,573.4 · 9.8% peak4,573.4 · 9.8% peak4,207.8 · 9.0% peak4,207.8 · 9.0% peak11,544.2 · 24.8% peak11,544.2 · 24.8% peak16,935.8 · 36.3% peak16,935.8 · 36.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 339257 · peak 46643 · CV 0.88

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0064 · skew=-0.87 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.03 (leptokurtic (fat tails))86420 1-196.96bpbin -196.96bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -196.96bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-169.68bp-142.40bp 1-115.13bpbin -115.13bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -115.13bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 1-87.85bpbin -87.85bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -87.85bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 4-60.58bpbin -60.58bp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -60.58bp · n=4 · 50.0% peak 2-33.30bpbin -33.30bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -33.30bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 3-6.03bpbin -6.03bp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -6.03bp · n=3 · 37.5% peak 821.25bpbin 21.25bp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 21.25bp · n=8 · 100.0% peak 248.53bpbin 48.53bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 48.53bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 175.80bpbin 75.80bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 75.80bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 1103.08bpbin 103.08bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 103.08bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.91 · kurt=1.29 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$5.1065
Mid price
$5.1068
24h change
-3.38%
Mark–mid spread
0.59 bps
Prev-day close
$5.2854

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.36)
μ MEAN5.1986$95% CI: [5.1761$, 5.2211$]
σ STD DEV0.0574$σ² = 32.980×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.10%
med MEDIAN5.2061$Q₁ 5.1509$ · Q₃ 5.2518$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.1881$ · IQR 0.1009$ (1.349σ→0.0775$)
min 5.1048$Q₁ 5.1509$med 5.2061$Q₃ 5.2518$max 5.2929$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.086approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.356platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.13
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.77
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.28
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-16.08
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.117882%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.172
σᵣ STD / h0.686004%σ²ᵣ = 0.471×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.82×
σ ANNUALISED64.21%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.686%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-16.08negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-12.00downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.98left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.91leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.75
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1032.65%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.10%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.097%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.882%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.619%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.55%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.097%VaR₉₉−1.882%ES₉₅−1.619%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK529.29$
−3.55% drawdown over 19h
510.48$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.48× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.72× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.68% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
36.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.123 · within band
Bollinger upper
$5.2826
Bollinger MA
$5.1815
Bollinger lower
$5.0804

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.241within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.149lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.969strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.476significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.969
H = 0.969STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.241k=2+0.149k=3-0.211k=4+0.031k=5-0.3330+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.48)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.48)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.68M
Open interest (USD)
$3.39M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.50x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.17% · worst -2.11% · typical |Δ| 0.50%MILD BEARISH -2.83%BEST+1.17%23hWORST-2.11%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.50%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.83%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.34% · Σ -2.74%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.27%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.35%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.83%+0.78%-2.84%0.15% · 12h0.15% · 12h0.15%12h-0.11% · 13h-0.11% · 13h-0.11%13h0.43% · 14h0.43% · 14h0.43%14h0.30% · 15h0.30% · 15h0.30%15h-2.11% · 16h-2.11% · 16h-2.11%16h▼ WORST-0.29% · 17h-0.29% · 17h-0.29%17h0.31% · 18h0.31% · 18h0.31%18h0.12% · 19h0.12% · 19h0.12%19h0.33% · 20h0.33% · 20h0.33%20h0.72% · 21h0.72% · 21h0.72%21h-0.61% · 22h-0.61% · 22h-0.61%22h1.17% · 23h1.17% · 23h1.17%23h★ BEST-0.72% · 00h-0.72% · 00h-0.72%00h0.39% · 01h0.39% · 01h0.39%01h-0.70% · 02h-0.70% · 02h-0.70%02h-0.28% · 03h-0.28% · 03h-0.28%03h-1.13% · 04h-1.13% · 04h-1.13%04h0.07% · 05h0.07% · 05h0.07%05h-0.63% · 06h-0.63% · 06h-0.63%06h0.24% · 07h0.24% · 07h0.24%07h0.10% · 08h0.10% · 08h0.10%08h0.28% · 09h0.28% · 09h0.28%09h-0.90% · 10h-0.90% · 10h-0.90%10h0.01% · 11h0.01% · 11h0.01%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.27%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 1.17% · worst -2.11% · typical |Δ| 0.503%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.84%)FINAL-2.84%MAX DD-3.61%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.78%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9716 · peak 1.0078 · range [0.9715, 1.0078]1.00780.9715break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0078UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.61% · moderate0%-3.61%▼ TROUGH -3.61%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.61%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.11%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.61%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9716 (-2.84%) · max DD -3.61% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-18.58 · σ=32.82UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -28.27 (-0.30σ vs μ)73.1736.590.00-36.59-73.17μ = -18.58-26.86-26.86-23.87-23.87-19.91-19.91-21.81-21.81-14.11-14.1119.2219.2253.4953.4921.5221.5227.0227.024.804.80-15.23-15.23-23.24-23.24-65.41-65.41-64.03-64.03-73.17-73.17-48.17-48.17-29.02-29.02-26.07-26.07-28.27-28.27v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -28.269 · range [-73.17, 53.49] · μ -18.585 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=66.5845 · σ=17.8838 · range [44.4285, 94.6339] · R²=0.596▼ FALLING -47.32%σ EXTREME 26.86%LAST 46.225594.633982.082669.531256.979944.4285μ = 66.5845max 94.6339min 44.4285dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 46.23% · range [44.43%, 94.63%] · μ 66.58% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.385 · σ=0.275MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.353 (+0.12σ vs μ)0.7960.3980.000-0.398-0.796μ = -0.385-0.097-0.097-0.108-0.108-0.076-0.076-0.115-0.1150.1730.173-0.320-0.320-0.640-0.640-0.738-0.738-0.796-0.796-0.751-0.751-0.662-0.662-0.332-0.332-0.603-0.603-0.526-0.526-0.549-0.549-0.295-0.295-0.183-0.183-0.341-0.341-0.353-0.353v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.353 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
7.4350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0243
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.2076
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2045
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2469
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6514
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0031
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3158
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6169
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0211
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.5524
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5807
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.832 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.65e-5 · top T=2.00h (40.3%) · top-3 cover 65.1%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.7e-42.0e-41.4e-46.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.85e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.85e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.90e-5 · 10.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.90e-5 · 10.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.07e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.07e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.19e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.19e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.44e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.44e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.89e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.89e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.61e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.61e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.62e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.62e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.67e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.67e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.67e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.67e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.85e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.85e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.73e-4 · 40.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.73e-4 · 40.3% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 40.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.776e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-89.87×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -48.36400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.021
annualized -48.36
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -48.17σ ann 54% · Sortino -42.79 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5780%-4611%-3442%-2273%-1105%64%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)53.6%Ann. vol σ-4816.8%Sharpe (ann)-4278.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
4.8945.0065.1195.2325.3455.458t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:15 UTC
Snapshot age
786ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:16 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0e3182ebb3082c92074efcfac88c67a3c565f63cdddf3da098cbed8ede637fcd · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$5.07K
bid $2.51K · ask $2.56K
Depth within 10bp
$31.41K
bid $22.64K · ask $8.77K
Depth within 50bp
$86.10K
bid $47.85K · ask $38.25K
Mid price
5.106800
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.113
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.100
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-inj/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K5.10751.44bp5.10812FILLED
BUY$10.00K5.11047.14bp5.113113FILLED
BUY$100.00K5.113412.98bp5.117320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K5.10581.99bp5.10533FILLED
SELL$10.00K5.10434.95bp5.10407FILLED
SELL$100.00K5.101310.71bp5.097420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-inj/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$5.0000–$6.0000★25$339.26K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-inj/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.038 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$163.64K
real volume
Sell weight
$151.76K
real volume
Net delta
$11.88K
buyers net
Imbalance
3.77%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
3.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-inj/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.94% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 02:00:00Z4.0h5.2742→5.11892.945%5
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h5.2929→5.16772.365%3
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h5.1509→5.10480.895%2

/api/asset/hl-inj/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
53.60%
σ per bar = 0.000234
Mean return (annualised)
-2581.80%
μ per bar = -0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-48.17
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.87%
peak 5.25 → trough 5.09 over 4903 bars

/api/asset/hl-inj/risk · same metrics, JSON