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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

INIT

INIT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-init · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.06%
realized vol (ann.)
151.35%
max drawdown
2.73%
sharpe
-11.97
ulcer index
1.74%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.59%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1039.05
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.53%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-715.71
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.06%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.06%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 14.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-init/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.058
24h Δ · live
-3.06%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
INIT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0591 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0582, 0.0604] · R²=0.789▼ FALLING -3.50%σ LOW 0.94%LAST 0.05830.06040.05980.05930.05870.0582μ = 0.0591max 0.0604min 0.0582dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.06
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=5,713,590 · μ=228543.6 · σ=291555.4 · CV=1.28BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=150353,053706,1061,059,1591,412,212μ = 2285441,412,21250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1412212 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.1s
$mark $
$0.0583
$mid $
$0.0582
◉prev-day close
$0.0601
Δ24h Δ %
-3.063%
$24h vol $
$329.25k
◐open interest $
$229.39k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0591 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0582, 0.0604] · R²=0.789▼ FALLING -3.50%σ LOW 0.94%LAST 0.05830.06040.05980.05930.05870.0582μ = 0.0591max 0.0604min 0.0582dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0583 · 24h -3.06% · range $[0.0582, 0.0604]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0573, 0.0611] · σ=0.0006 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%BEARISH -2.66%CLOSE 0.0583 vs OPEN 0.0598 (-2.66%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.05830.06110.06020.05920.05830.0573μ close = 0.0591O0.060 H0.061 L0.060 C0.060 (+0.87%)O0.060 H0.061 L0.060 C0.060 (+0.87%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.060 C0.060 (-0.72%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.060 C0.060 (-0.72%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.87%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.87%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.09%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.09%)1.4%O0.059 H0.061 L0.059 C0.060 (+1.36%)O0.059 H0.061 L0.059 C0.060 (+1.36%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.96%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.96%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.060 (+0.31%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.060 (+0.31%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.060 (-0.21%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.060 (-0.21%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.13%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.13%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.69%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.69%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.11%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.11%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.87%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.87%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.16%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.16%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.27%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.27%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.18%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.18%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.45%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.45%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.30%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.30%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-1.28%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-1.28%)O0.058 H0.060 L0.058 C0.059 (+1.28%)O0.058 H0.060 L0.058 C0.059 (+1.28%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.58%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.58%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.059 (+0.05%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.059 (+0.05%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.057 C0.059 (+0.41%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.057 C0.059 (+0.41%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-1.26%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-1.26%)O0.058 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.19%)O0.058 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.19%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.08%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.08%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=5,713,590 · μ=228543.6 · σ=291555.4 · CV=1.28BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=150353,053706,1061,059,1591,412,212μ = 228544442,388 · 31.3% peak442,388 · 31.3% peak104,317 · 7.4% peak104,317 · 7.4% peak77,903 · 5.5% peak77,903 · 5.5% peak182,274 · 12.9% peak182,274 · 12.9% peak751,814 · 53.2% peak751,814 · 53.2% peak401,205 · 28.4% peak401,205 · 28.4% peak139,651 · 9.9% peak139,651 · 9.9% peak59,032 · 4.2% peak59,032 · 4.2% peak155,967 · 11.0% peak155,967 · 11.0% peak83,066 · 5.9% peak83,066 · 5.9% peak100,864 · 7.1% peak100,864 · 7.1% peak116,515 · 8.3% peak116,515 · 8.3% peak96,238 · 6.8% peak96,238 · 6.8% peak130,209 · 9.2% peak130,209 · 9.2% peak82,063 · 5.8% peak82,063 · 5.8% peak65,183 · 4.6% peak65,183 · 4.6% peak57,993 · 4.1% peak57,993 · 4.1% peak133,228 · 9.4% peak133,228 · 9.4% peak281,043 · 19.9% peak281,043 · 19.9% peak124,145 · 8.8% peak124,145 · 8.8% peak97,470 · 6.9% peak97,470 · 6.9% peak1,412,2121,412,212 · 100.0% peak1,412,212 · 100.0% peak207,630 · 14.7% peak207,630 · 14.7% peak129,159 · 9.1% peak129,159 · 9.1% peak282,021 · 20.0% peak282,021 · 20.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 5713590 · peak 1412212 · CV 1.28

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0015 · σ=0.0061 · skew=0.09 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.88 (mesokurtic)43210 2-110.25bpbin -110.25bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -110.25bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-90.94bpbin -90.94bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -90.94bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-71.63bpbin -71.63bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -71.63bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-52.33bpbin -52.33bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -52.33bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak-33.02bp 4-13.72bpbin -13.72bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -13.72bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 25.59bpbin 5.59bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 5.59bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 424.90bpbin 24.90bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 24.90bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 344.20bpbin 44.20bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 44.20bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak63.51bp82.81bp 2102.12bpbin 102.12bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 102.12bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.12 · kurt=-0.71 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0583
Mid price
$0.0582
24h change
-3.06%
Mark–mid spread
3.43 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0601

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0591$95% CI: [0.0589$, 0.0593$]
σ STD DEV0.0006$σ² = 0.003×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.94%
med MEDIAN0.0590$Q₁ 0.0588$ · Q₃ 0.0594$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0022$ · IQR 0.0007$ (1.349σ→0.0008$)
min 0.0582$Q₁ 0.0588$med 0.0590$Q₃ 0.0594$max 0.0604$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.297approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.568mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.12
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.90
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-21.83
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.148450%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.233
σᵣ STD / h0.636511%σ²ᵣ = 0.405×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.29×
σ ANNUALISED59.57%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.637%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-21.83negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-20.03downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.13approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.58mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.92
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1300.42%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.13%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.128%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.190%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.179%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.60%22h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.128%VaR₉₉−1.190%ES₉₅−1.179%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 22h duration
PEAK6.04$
−3.60% drawdown over 22h
5.82$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.73% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
35.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.117 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0598
Bollinger MA
$0.0589
Bollinger lower
$0.0581

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.49 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.491negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.084lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.673persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.287significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.673
H = 0.673PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.491k=2+0.084k=3-0.015k=4-0.091k=5-0.0280+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.29)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.49 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.84very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.29)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$329.25k
Open interest (USD)
$229.39k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.44x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.12% · worst -1.20% · typical |Δ| 0.53%MILD BEARISH -3.56%BEST+1.12%05hWORST-1.20%09hTYPICAL |Δ|0.53%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.56%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.18%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.25%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.27% · Σ -2.13%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.56%+0.00%-3.66%-0.84% · 12h-0.84% · 12h-0.84%12h-0.84% · 13h-0.84% · 13h-0.84%13h0.09% · 14h0.09% · 14h0.09%14h1.03% · 15h1.03% · 15h1.03%15h-0.96% · 16h-0.96% · 16h-0.96%16h0.40% · 17h0.40% · 17h0.40%17h-0.21% · 18h-0.21% · 18h-0.21%18h-0.23% · 19h-0.23% · 19h-0.23%19h-0.66% · 20h-0.66% · 20h-0.66%20h0.34% · 21h0.34% · 21h0.34%21h-0.70% · 22h-0.70% · 22h-0.70%22h-0.11% · 23h-0.11% · 23h-0.11%23h0.36% · 00h0.36% · 00h0.36%00h0.29% · 01h0.29% · 01h0.29%01h-0.48% · 02h-0.48% · 02h-0.48%02h0.31% · 03h0.31% · 03h0.31%03h-1.16% · 04h-1.16% · 04h-1.16%04h1.12% · 05h1.12% · 05h1.12%05h★ BEST-0.58% · 06h-0.58% · 06h-0.58%06h-0.03% · 07h-0.03% · 07h-0.03%07h0.41% · 08h0.41% · 08h0.41%08h-1.20% · 09h-1.20% · 09h-1.20%09h▼ WORST0.19% · 10h0.19% · 10h0.19%10h-0.09% · 11h-0.09% · 11h-0.09%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.18%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.12% · worst -1.20% · typical |Δ| 0.526%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.55%)FINAL-3.55%MAX DD-3.64%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9645 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9636, 1.0000]1.00000.9636break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.64% · moderate0%-3.64%▼ TROUGH -3.64%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.64%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.64%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9645 (-3.55%) · max DD -3.64% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-18.38 · σ=17.39UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -34.68 (-0.94σ vs μ)63.8531.920.00-31.92-63.85μ = -18.38-21.31-21.31-10.03-10.032.862.86-13.48-13.48-38.54-38.54-35.35-35.35-63.85-63.85-33.94-33.94-15.24-15.24-10.50-10.50-11.76-11.76-20.76-20.768.558.55-9.83-9.83-16.26-16.261.261.26-24.52-24.52-1.86-1.86-34.68-34.68v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -34.680 · range [-63.85, 8.55] · μ -18.382 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=60.7122 · σ=15.3830 · range [35.9818, 85.7171] · R²=0.073▼ FALLING -28.78%σ EXTREME 25.34%LAST 54.708285.717173.283360.849448.415635.9818μ = 60.7122max 85.7171min 35.9818dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 54.71% · range [35.98%, 85.72%] · μ 60.71% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.492 · σ=0.195MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.532 (-0.21σ vs μ)0.7940.3970.000-0.397-0.794μ = -0.492-0.240-0.240-0.488-0.488-0.586-0.586-0.525-0.525-0.482-0.482-0.460-0.460-0.786-0.786-0.457-0.457-0.273-0.273-0.235-0.235-0.141-0.141-0.297-0.297-0.569-0.569-0.793-0.793-0.794-0.794-0.717-0.717-0.542-0.542-0.429-0.429-0.532-0.532v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.532 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.3997
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8188
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.0283
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2174
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.3556
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1631
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.8629
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0625
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8999
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0041
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.1880
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0287
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.334 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.42e-5 · top T=2.00h (24.2%) · top-3 cover 59.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.3e-49.6e-56.4e-53.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.90e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.90e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.02e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.02e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.47e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.47e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.29e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.29e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.40e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.40e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.04e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.04e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.52e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.52e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.47e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.47e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.75e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.75e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.13e-4 · 21.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.13e-4 · 21.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.92e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.92e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.28e-4 · 24.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.28e-4 · 24.2% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 24.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.299e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -6.75× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-6.75×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -4.09400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.002
annualized -4.09
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -8.51σ ann 126% · Sortino -7.72 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1200%-930%-659%-389%-119%151%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)126.2%Ann. vol σ-851.3%Sharpe (ann)-772.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.002% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0550.0570.0580.0590.0610.062t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:21:57 UTC
Snapshot age
1.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:21:58 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
13d6152471b87ab7631c366e62e09a59dfde68371052d1f56dd35b192b73c28b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,493HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.6HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.64

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.68K
bid $623 · ask $1.05K
Depth within 10bp
$4.85K
bid $2.45K · ask $2.40K
Depth within 50bp
$22.20K
bid $10.84K · ask $11.37K
Mid price
0.058237
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.040
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.119
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-init/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0582614.01bp0.0582643FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.05838425.13bp0.05848217FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.05840228.25bp0.05856820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0582104.77bp0.0581962FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.05811620.83bp0.05800414FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.05808326.48bp0.05789020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-init/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$5.71M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-init/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.240 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.27M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.00M
real volume
Net delta
$1.26M
buyers net
Imbalance
23.97%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
24.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-init/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 1.67% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 12:00:00Z2.0h0.060370→0.0593611.671%3
#22026-06-13 20:00:00Z3.0h0.059697→0.0587651.561%4
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.059147→0.0583631.326%1

/api/asset/hl-init/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
126.20%
σ per bar = 0.000550
Mean return (annualised)
-1074.31%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-8.51
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.94%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.06 over 1582 bars

/api/asset/hl-init/risk · same metrics, JSON