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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

IMX

IMX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-imx · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.60%
realized vol (ann.)
51.38%
max drawdown
0.96%
sharpe
18.56
ulcer index
0.53%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.44%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1790.70
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.92%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.04
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1034.86
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.04
upside/downside
roll spread
1.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.60%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-imx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.144
24h Δ · live
-0.60%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
IMX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1451 · σ=0.0012 · range [0.1433, 0.1475] · R²=0.404▼ FALLING -0.34%σ LOW 0.86%LAST 0.14360.14750.14650.14540.14440.1433μ = 0.1451max 0.1475min 0.1433dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.40μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.14
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=570,696 · μ=22827.9 · σ=23815.3 · CV=1.04BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=12025,88451,76777,651103,534μ = 22828103,534.250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 103534 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.1s
$mark $
$0.1436
$mid $
$0.1436
◉prev-day close
$0.1444
Δ24h Δ %
-0.596%
$24h vol $
$82.60k
◐open interest $
$2.32M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1451 · σ=0.0012 · range [0.1433, 0.1475] · R²=0.404▼ FALLING -0.34%σ LOW 0.86%LAST 0.14360.14750.14650.14540.14440.1433μ = 0.1451max 0.1475min 0.1433dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.40μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1436 · 24h -0.60% · range $[0.1433, 0.1475]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.1429, 0.1490] · σ=0.0012 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=47%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 0.1436 vs OPEN 0.1438 (-0.16%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.14360.14900.14750.14600.14440.1429μ close = 0.1451O0.144 H0.144 L0.144 C0.144 (+0.18%)O0.144 H0.144 L0.144 C0.144 (+0.18%)O0.144 H0.144 L0.143 C0.143 (-0.26%)O0.144 H0.144 L0.143 C0.143 (-0.26%)2.1%O0.144 H0.147 L0.144 C0.147 (+2.08%)O0.144 H0.147 L0.144 C0.147 (+2.08%)O0.147 H0.149 L0.146 C0.148 (+0.58%)O0.147 H0.149 L0.146 C0.148 (+0.58%)O0.148 H0.148 L0.146 C0.147 (-0.38%)O0.148 H0.148 L0.146 C0.147 (-0.38%)O0.147 H0.147 L0.145 C0.146 (-0.82%)O0.147 H0.147 L0.145 C0.146 (-0.82%)O0.146 H0.146 L0.145 C0.146 (+0.29%)O0.146 H0.146 L0.145 C0.146 (+0.29%)O0.146 H0.147 L0.145 C0.147 (+0.31%)O0.146 H0.147 L0.145 C0.147 (+0.31%)O0.147 H0.147 L0.146 C0.146 (-0.33%)O0.147 H0.147 L0.146 C0.146 (-0.33%)O0.146 H0.147 L0.145 C0.147 (+0.53%)O0.146 H0.147 L0.145 C0.147 (+0.53%)O0.146 H0.147 L0.145 C0.145 (-0.72%)O0.146 H0.147 L0.145 C0.145 (-0.72%)O0.145 H0.146 L0.145 C0.146 (+0.03%)O0.145 H0.146 L0.145 C0.146 (+0.03%)O0.146 H0.146 L0.145 C0.145 (-0.28%)O0.146 H0.146 L0.145 C0.145 (-0.28%)O0.145 H0.146 L0.145 C0.145 (-0.03%)O0.145 H0.146 L0.145 C0.145 (-0.03%)O0.145 H0.146 L0.144 C0.145 (-0.30%)O0.145 H0.146 L0.144 C0.145 (-0.30%)O0.145 H0.145 L0.144 C0.145 (-0.15%)O0.145 H0.145 L0.144 C0.145 (-0.15%)O0.145 H0.145 L0.144 C0.144 (-0.80%)O0.145 H0.145 L0.144 C0.144 (-0.80%)O0.144 H0.144 L0.143 C0.144 (+0.26%)O0.144 H0.144 L0.143 C0.144 (+0.26%)O0.144 H0.145 L0.144 C0.145 (+0.24%)O0.144 H0.145 L0.144 C0.145 (+0.24%)O0.145 H0.145 L0.144 C0.144 (-0.28%)O0.145 H0.145 L0.144 C0.144 (-0.28%)O0.144 H0.145 L0.144 C0.144 (-0.21%)O0.144 H0.145 L0.144 C0.144 (-0.21%)O0.144 H0.144 L0.143 C0.144 (+0.32%)O0.144 H0.144 L0.143 C0.144 (+0.32%)O0.145 H0.145 L0.143 C0.143 (-0.84%)O0.145 H0.145 L0.143 C0.143 (-0.84%)O0.143 H0.144 L0.143 C0.144 (+0.29%)O0.143 H0.144 L0.143 C0.144 (+0.29%)O0.143 H0.144 L0.143 C0.144 (+0.13%)O0.143 H0.144 L0.143 C0.144 (+0.13%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=570,696 · μ=22827.9 · σ=23815.3 · CV=1.04BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=12025,88451,76777,651103,534μ = 228285,193.5 · 5.0% peak5,193.5 · 5.0% peak4,471.9 · 4.3% peak4,471.9 · 4.3% peak30,439.5 · 29.4% peak30,439.5 · 29.4% peak52,735.7 · 50.9% peak52,735.7 · 50.9% peak79,467.4 · 76.8% peak79,467.4 · 76.8% peak22,991.7 · 22.2% peak22,991.7 · 22.2% peak24,250.1 · 23.4% peak24,250.1 · 23.4% peak9,365.1 · 9.0% peak9,365.1 · 9.0% peak12,292.7 · 11.9% peak12,292.7 · 11.9% peak8,130 · 7.9% peak8,130 · 7.9% peak11,444 · 11.1% peak11,444 · 11.1% peak35,428.1 · 34.2% peak35,428.1 · 34.2% peak103,534.2103,534.2 · 100.0% peak103,534.2 · 100.0% peak29,097.5 · 28.1% peak29,097.5 · 28.1% peak11,835.9 · 11.4% peak11,835.9 · 11.4% peak10,426.7 · 10.1% peak10,426.7 · 10.1% peak17,807.6 · 17.2% peak17,807.6 · 17.2% peak9,699.9 · 9.4% peak9,699.9 · 9.4% peak13,190.8 · 12.7% peak13,190.8 · 12.7% peak19,221.7 · 18.6% peak19,221.7 · 18.6% peak5,515.8 · 5.3% peak5,515.8 · 5.3% peak8,402.4 · 8.1% peak8,402.4 · 8.1% peak11,562.6 · 11.2% peak11,562.6 · 11.2% peak26,416.7 · 25.5% peak26,416.7 · 25.5% peak7,774.9 · 7.5% peak7,774.9 · 7.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 570696 · peak 103534 · CV 1.04

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0060 · skew=1.44 (right-skewed) · kurt=3.76 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 3-87.23bpbin -87.23bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -87.23bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1-60.46bpbin -60.46bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -60.46bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 6-33.70bpbin -33.70bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -33.70bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 4-6.93bpbin -6.93bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -6.93bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 519.83bpbin 19.83bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 19.83bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 446.60bpbin 46.60bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 46.60bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak73.36bp100.13bp126.90bp153.66bp180.43bp 1207.19bpbin 207.19bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 207.19bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.45 · kurt=3.88 · near 19 / mid 4 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1436
Mid price
$0.1436
24h change
-0.60%
Mark–mid spread
4.18 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1444

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.18)
μ MEAN0.1451$95% CI: [0.1446$, 0.1456$]
σ STD DEV0.0012$σ² = 0.016×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.86%
med MEDIAN0.1448$Q₁ 0.1441$ · Q₃ 0.1460$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0042$ · IQR 0.0019$ (1.349σ→0.0017$)
min 0.1433$Q₁ 0.1441$med 0.1448$Q₃ 0.1460$max 0.1475$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.322approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.178platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.22
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.35
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-2.05
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.014193%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.022
σᵣ STD / h0.648609%σ²ᵣ = 0.421×10⁻⁴ · CV = 45.70×
σ ANNUALISED60.71%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.649%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-2.05negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-2.52downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-43.77drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.55right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂5.12leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.23
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -43.77
EXPECTED EDGE-124.33%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.89%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.886%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.984%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.957%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.84%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.886%VaR₉₉−0.984%ES₉₅−0.957%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK14.75$
−2.84% drawdown over 19h
14.33$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.92% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.193 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1470
Bollinger MA
$0.1449
Bollinger lower
$0.1428

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.121within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.125lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.783strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.947significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.783
H = 0.783STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.121k=2-0.125k=3-0.177k=4+0.071k=5+0.0710+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.95)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.69very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.95)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$82.60k
Open interest (USD)
$2.32M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.04x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-3.374× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-1.687× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.843×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.21% · worst -1.01% · typical |Δ| 0.45%MILD BEARISH -0.34%BEST+2.21%14hWORST-1.01%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.45%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.34%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.83%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.23% · Σ +1.85%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.36%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.34%+2.35%-0.54%-0.43% · 13h-0.43% · 13h-0.43%13h2.21% · 14h2.21% · 14h2.21%14h★ BEST0.57% · 15h0.57% · 15h0.57%15h-0.28% · 16h-0.28% · 16h-0.28%16h-0.91% · 17h-0.91% · 17h-0.91%17h0.14% · 18h0.14% · 18h0.14%18h0.38% · 19h0.38% · 19h0.38%19h-0.34% · 20h-0.34% · 20h-0.34%20h0.54% · 21h0.54% · 21h0.54%21h-1.01% · 22h-1.01% · 22h-1.01%22h▼ WORST0.11% · 23h0.11% · 23h0.11%23h-0.16% · 00h-0.16% · 00h-0.16%00h-0.03% · 01h-0.03% · 01h-0.03%01h-0.32% · 02h-0.32% · 02h-0.32%02h-0.02% · 03h-0.02% · 03h-0.02%03h-0.76% · 04h-0.76% · 04h-0.76%04h0.30% · 05h0.30% · 05h0.30%05h0.44% · 06h0.44% · 06h0.44%06h-0.28% · 07h-0.28% · 07h-0.28%07h-0.30% · 08h-0.30% · 08h-0.30%08h0.32% · 09h0.32% · 09h0.32%09h-0.72% · 10h-0.72% · 10h-0.72%10h0.14% · 11h0.14% · 11h0.14%11h0.06% · 12h0.06% · 12h0.06%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.85%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 5BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 2.21% · worst -1.01% · typical |Δ| 0.448%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.39%)FINAL-0.39%MAX DD-2.86%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.35%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9961 · peak 1.0235 · range [0.9942, 1.0235]1.02350.9942break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0235UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.86% · moderate0%-2.86%▼ TROUGH -2.86%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.86%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.43%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.86%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9961 (-0.39%) · max DD -2.86% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-18.62 · σ=21.63UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -32.34 (-0.63σ vs μ)58.8529.430.00-29.43-58.85μ = -18.6218.5318.5331.4531.45-12.33-12.33-13.42-13.42-28.13-28.13-4.74-4.74-13.20-13.20-26.76-26.76-26.29-26.29-55.07-55.07-58.85-58.85-43.44-43.44-14.08-14.08-22.62-22.62-21.83-21.83-9.11-9.11-7.80-7.80-13.79-13.79-32.34-32.34v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -32.338 · range [-58.85, 31.45] · μ -18.624 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=50.1702 · σ=19.3369 · range [29.3539, 102.6769] · R²=0.502▼ FALLING -65.84%σ EXTREME 38.54%LAST 35.0744102.676984.346166.015447.684629.3539μ = 50.1702max 102.6769min 29.3539dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 35.07% · range [29.35%, 102.68%] · μ 50.17% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.331 · σ=0.264MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.601 (-1.02σ vs μ)0.7140.3570.000-0.357-0.714μ = -0.331-0.020-0.0200.2390.239-0.111-0.111-0.138-0.138-0.381-0.381-0.581-0.581-0.669-0.669-0.714-0.714-0.632-0.632-0.318-0.318-0.254-0.254-0.640-0.640-0.128-0.128-0.216-0.216-0.166-0.166-0.201-0.201-0.213-0.213-0.547-0.547-0.601-0.601v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.601 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
35.7913
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.0978
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8368
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7961
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3923
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5769
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0247
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0179
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3087
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.690 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.08e-5 · top T=3.00h (17.9%) · top-3 cover 45.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)8.8e-56.6e-54.4e-52.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.82e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.82e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.35e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.35e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.14e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.14e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.30e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.30e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.19e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.19e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.05e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.05e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.77e-5 · 17.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.77e-5 · 17.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.99e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.99e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.00e-5 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.00e-5 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.78e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.78e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.25e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.25e-5 · 2.6% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 17.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.901e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-26.15×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -15.36400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -15.36
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -774% · APY -100% · Sharpe -14.23σ ann 54% · Sortino -7.71 · n 4999
-1707%-1353%-998%-644%-289%65%-773.8%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)54.4%Ann. vol σ-1422.6%Sharpe (ann)-771.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1370.1400.1430.1460.1480.151t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:41:29 UTC
Snapshot age
5.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:41:34 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
04b92c05e11e7dee1abb0ec8f4c2a81af1f0d5b0b8ca84f86ebde91db469c162 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,313HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,668.5HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.77

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$2.48K
bid $803 · ask $1.67K
Depth within 50bp
$38.15K
bid $29.10K · ask $9.05K
Mid price
0.143615
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
13.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.130
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.256
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-imx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1437177.11bp0.1437202FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.14404029.61bp0.1447409FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.147214250.61bp0.14880020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1435107.30bp0.1434702FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.14326424.43bp0.14293010FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.14280956.11bp0.14140020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-imx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$570.70K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-imx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.201 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$225.83K
real volume
Sell weight
$339.67K
real volume
Net delta
$113.84K
sellers net
Imbalance
-20.13%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
20.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-imx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 1.18% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h0.147520→0.1457801.180%2
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.145260→0.1436601.101%1
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.146840→0.1453001.049%3

/api/asset/hl-imx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
54.40%
σ per bar = 0.000237
Mean return (annualised)
-773.80%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-14.23
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.48%
peak 0.15 → trough 0.14 over 1205 bars

/api/asset/hl-imx/risk · same metrics, JSON